1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber futures in China initially rose due to better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data but later retreated as positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton. With the previous positive factors realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [5][14][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis discount converged** - In the week of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price of SCRWF and the futures price of the RU2605 contract was at a discount of 185 yuan/ton, and the degree of discount slightly converged [9]. - **1.2 Positive factors digested, and rubber prices rose first and then fell** - Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data, domestic rubber futures rose initially. However, as the positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected, rubber prices gave back their gains. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement in Q3 2025 - **2.1 Output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries increased slightly year - on - year, and consumption decreased slightly year - on - year** - From May to November, rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China and Southeast Asian countries are in the peak tapping season. In November 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1677 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0674 million tons (a decline of 5.46%). From January to November 2025, the total production was 10.3887 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0482 million tons (an increase of 0.47%) compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the total rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries was 0.9116 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0112 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons (an increase of 1.22%). From January to November 2025, the total consumption was 9.9974 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2243 million tons (a decline of 2.19%) compared with the same period last year. Due to normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and weakening global demand, the rubber market supply - demand structure is weakening, and rubber prices may face pressure in the future [26][30]. - **2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in November 2025** - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In November 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to November 2025, the total import was 7.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5% [33]. - **2.3 Growth rate of domestic tire production slowed down, and industry operating rate declined slightly** - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion pieces, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [36]. - **2.4 China's auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in 2025** - In 2025, China's auto production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. Passenger vehicle production and sales were 30.27 million and 30.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. Commercial vehicle production and sales were 4.261 million and 4.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. Auto exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The logistics prosperity index in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of the heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [40][41]. - **2.5 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts increased significantly, and Qingdao Bonded Area inventory increased slightly** - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the SHFE rubber futures inventory increased significantly week - on - week, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 3,900 tons to 108,390 tons compared with the week of January 9. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (a growth rate of 4.48%). The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons (a growth rate of 3.80%), and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [57]. 3.3 Conclusion - Currently, the natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China are in the non - tapping season, and the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. However, Southeast Asia has not entered the low - production season, and supply pressure still exists. The domestic auto production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. However, the crude oil price has given back its geopolitical premium, and the correction of the energy - chemical sector has dragged down the high - level adjustment of rubber futures. As the previous positive factors are gradually realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is "shock", and for soybean meal, it is suggested that the price may rebound [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the upward trend of neighboring corn and wheat, but the upcoming record - high soybean harvest in Brazil restricts the upside potential of soybean prices. The price of soybean meal may rebound after the uncertainty is removed [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4324 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.21%), and 4303 yuan/ton at night, down 32 yuan (-0.74%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2727 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.40%), and 2722 yuan/ton at night, down 12 yuan (-0.44%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1056.25 cents/bushel, up 3.25 cents (+0.31%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 289.9 dollars/short ton, up 0.7 dollars (+0.24%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal is 3085 - 3150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to flat compared with the previous day; in East China, the price of Jiangsu Zhonghai is 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in South China, the price range is 3120 - 3220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to flat compared with the previous day. Different regions have different premiums relative to futures contracts at different time points, and most of them remain flat [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 25.15 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and 52.6 million tons per day two trading days ago; the inventory was not available on the previous trading day and 101.88 million tons per week two trading days ago [1] Macro and Industry News - On January 16, 2026, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the upward trend of neighboring corn and wheat. However, the upcoming record - high soybean harvest in Brazil will restrict the upside potential of soybean prices. The U.S. market will be closed on Martin Luther King Day on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday. Canada and China have reached a new trade agreement, including reducing the tariff on rapeseed. China will reduce the compound tariff rate on Canadian rapeseed from about 84% to about 15% before March 1 [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [3]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Indian production increase suppresses international sugar prices. The number of sugar mills in Yunnan, China, starting production has increased year-on-year, and the arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota is at the second-highest level in the past five years. The short-term price fluctuates strongly, with increasing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [3]. Key Points - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5304 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SR03 closed at 5258 with a daily decrease of 0.51% and a weekly decrease of 0.55%, etc. [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 15, down 6 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -11, down 6 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, etc. [4] - Sugar basis: For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 75, up 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -65, up 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [9]. - Sugar import prices: The quota - within price of Brazilian sugar was 4002, down 45 from the previous day and 77 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5068, down 59 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [13]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - With the continuous upward shift of cotton prices, the spinning profits of domestic downstream yarn mills have been significantly squeezed, and industrial risks have accumulated. Meanwhile, the price advantage of imported yarn has emerged, which may impact domestic cotton consumption. In the short term, cotton prices may face a correction risk, but the correction range may be limited due to the relatively low inventory pressure of the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [15]. Key Points - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 14675, down 20 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.14%; Cotton 05 closed at 14590, down 85 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.58%, etc. [16] - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: The cotton basis was 1341, up 44 from the previous day; Cotton 01 - 05 was 85, up 65 from the previous day, etc. [16] Group 3: Apple Core View - In the short term, apples have slightly corrected due to lower - than - expected demand. However, the main logic of the current market is the short - term issue of delivery products. It is expected that apples will continue to be strong after short - term adjustment. Additionally, pre - Spring Festival stocking has gradually started, and cold storages are packaging goods. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [20]. Key Points - Apple futures prices: AP03 closed at 9583, down 3.06% from the previous day and 1.6% from the previous week; AP04 closed at 9539, down 2.73% from the previous day and 1.47% from the previous week, etc. [21] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 9807, down 14959.09% from the previous day and 2195.51% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 1402, down 2.71% from the previous day and up 29.81% from the previous week [21][22]. - Apple basis: The main contract basis was - 430, down 12.96% from the previous day and up 27.98% from the previous week [21]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - In the short term, red date prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will still face downward pressure [29]. Key Points - Red date price spreads: For example, the red date futures spread of 01 - 05 showed certain trends in different periods [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday, January 9, 2026, as the previous bullish factors have gradually been digested [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia weakens geopolitical risks, dispelling the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply and reducing bullish drivers. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber production areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some device load reductions or shutdowns and a decline in supply expectations. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic synthetic rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to Bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The downstream spindle capacity expansion has increased domestic cotton consumption. With high production and consumption expected in the new year and low cotton imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Considering the possible significant decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, the medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be bullish. However, short - term price increases driven by funds may lead to high - level corrections [2]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar market is facing downward pressure. Although the current valuation is low, the worst period of domestic pressure has not yet arrived, and there may be another bottom - seeking. However, the overall decline is expected to be limited, and the short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5]. - Pulp: Overseas supply disruptions continue, and the US dollar quotes are rising. With the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expected, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upward space depends on the actual improvement of demand and the digestion of port inventory [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,442 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 787; the national average price was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 960. - Market Information: As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01%. The CCI in India had cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, with 39% from Telangana. Converted to lint, it was about 998,000 tons [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small. In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory increased slightly. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, the short - term supply pressure was high, and global textile consumption was weak. The signing progress of US cotton exports was slow, and the ICE US cotton was expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, US cotton was in a low - valuation range, with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers [1]. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly. As the sales progress of new cotton accelerated, the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased. On the demand side, with the approaching of the two festivals, yarn mills and traders stocked up actively, but downstream orders declined, finished product sales slowed down, and inventory in the industrial chain, especially in the grey fabric segment, increased significantly, showing a marginal weakening trend [1]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5257 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 73; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 57. - Market Information: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year. As of mid - December 2025, Uttar Pradesh had produced 3.586 million tons of sugar, an increase of 306,000 tons from the same period last year. Maharashtra had 197 sugar mills in operation, with a sugar production of 4.861 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 62%. Karnataka's sugar production had also increased by about 12% compared with the same period last year [3]. Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: In the 25/26 season, global sugar production was abundant, and the global sugar market was in a definite surplus. In the short term, due to the accelerated harvest in Brazil, limited exports from India, and the just - started harvest in Thailand, the downward space of raw sugar was limited, but the surplus pattern restricted its rebound momentum, and there was no sign of a trend reversal in the short - to - medium - term. In the long - term, there were uncertainties in weather and the sugar - making ratio next year. Some institutions predicted a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area was expected to shrink, so the long - term sugar price should not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: Domestic sugar production was expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi had gradually started production, and the supply showed a seasonal increase. On the import side, the profit of out - of - quota imports from Brazil remained high, and imports increased in the second half of the year, increasing the supply pressure. However, the control policy on syrup had become stricter this year, and the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was expected to further decrease next year [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5530 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 60. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 355. - Market Information: The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with individual prices fluctuating. The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted slightly downward in a narrow range. Traders in the imported softwood pulp spot market were willing to sell but were reluctant to sell at low prices due to profit considerations, so most prices remained stable, with only individual grades in the Shandong market adjusting by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In the imported hardwood pulp spot market, traders were actively raising prices due to rising arrival costs and tight available supplies, with high - end prices in the Guangdong market rising by 50 yuan/ton. The imported unbleached pulp market was trading smoothly, with prices remaining stable. The price of imported chemimechanical pulp increased in some areas with slightly tight supplies, with prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong rising by 50 yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There had been continuous news of overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed its Crofton paper mill in British Columbia, Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a 650,000 - ton softwood pulp capacity temporarily shut down on December 15 and was expected to gradually resume production on January 7 next year. In addition, its subsidiary Finnforest was preparing for a major production cut at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7]. - Demand: In November, the wood pulp inventory at European ports continued to decline, and demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, and downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with low procurement willingness, resulting in high port inventory. However, port inventory had been declining in recent weeks, and the continuous expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year would create marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials, which might support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [7].

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - In December, domestic and international oilseed prices showed weak performance, with oil prices initially declining and then rising, while protein meal prices remained weak and volatile [13][15] - The palm oil market is experiencing a contradiction between fundamental supply and seasonal demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited consumption in major markets like China and India [15] - The first quarter is expected to see increased competition in the oilseed market, with a focus on basis trading strategies [14][15] Group 2: Soybeans - Brazil's Mato Grosso will begin harvesting soybeans in January, leading to pressure on soybean prices due to high sales volume and reduced demand from China [14] - Brazilian soybean prices may drop below $400/ton, impacting global soybean prices, while U.S. soybean purchases by China are expected to continue but at a slower pace [14] - The market is awaiting the January supply and demand report to assess the final production and inventory figures for U.S. soybeans [14] Group 3: Eggs - In December, egg futures prices experienced a high-level correction followed by a slight rebound, but the supply remains ample, leading to a weak price trend [16][17] - The average price of brown eggs in China was stable at 3.01 yuan/kg as of December 31, with cautious purchasing behavior from traders ahead of the New Year [16][17] - The number of egg-laying hens continues to decline, but overall supply remains sufficient, leading to a recommendation for cautious observation in the market [17] Group 4: Corn - In December, U.S. corn prices showed resilience, with strong export sales supporting the market despite geopolitical tensions affecting wheat prices [19] - Domestic corn prices remained strong, with an average price of 2313 yuan/ton as of December 31, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [19] - The market is balancing supply and demand, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to weak terminal demand [19] Group 5: Pork - In December, the price of live pigs increased due to seasonal demand, with the national average price reaching 12.48 yuan/kg, up 1.36 yuan from the previous month [20] - The number of breeding sows decreased slightly, but the demand for heavier pigs has increased, supporting prices [20] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by strong supply and demand dynamics [20]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 25, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% at 3959.62, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33% at 13531.41, and the ChiNext Index up 0.30% at 3239.34. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1924.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4642.54, up 8.48 [2] - Futures Contracts: - Coke weighted index: Closed at 1722.2, up 1.2 [2] - Coking coal weighted index: Closed at 1113.0 yuan, up 0.7 [3] - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract: Consolidated and adjusted during the day and continued to fluctuate at night [4] - Shanghai Rubber: Rose during the day and closed slightly higher at night [4] - Palm Oil P2605: Rose 0.64% to close at 8542 [5] - Soybean Meal M2605: Rose 1.17% to close at 2760 yuan/ton [5] - Live Hogs LH2603: Fell 0.17% to close at 11460 yuan/ton [5] - Shanghai Copper 2602: Opened at 95910 yuan/ton, reached a low of 94180 yuan/ton, and closed at 96210 yuan/ton [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Closed at 14425 yuan/ton at night [6] - Iron Ore 2605: Rose 0.58% to close at 778.5 yuan [6] - Asphalt 2605: Rose 0.17% to close at 2995 yuan [6] - Logs 2603: Opened at 776, closed at 778, with an increase of 93 lots in positions [6] - Steel rb2605: Closed at 3127 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3280 yuan/ton [7] - Alumina ao2605: Closed at 2646 yuan/ton [7] - Shanghai Aluminum al2602: Closed at 22275 yuan/ton [7] 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi-primary metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Supply increased steadily as coking enterprises maintained production levels due to profit margins from falling coking coal prices. Demand was weak as some steel mills entered maintenance, reducing raw material purchases [4] - **Coking Coal**: Prices in some areas increased, such as in Shanxi and at Ganqimaodu Port. Supply was affected as some mines limited production after completing annual tasks, and the intermediate trading环节 was cautious [4] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease, with the central-southern region's output at 38 million tons, a 5% drop from the previous season. The overall Brazilian output is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons [4] Natural Rubber - Main domestic producing areas entered the off-season, reducing supply pressure. Global production and consumption in November 2025 were expected to decline by 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, to 1.474 million tons and 1.248 million tons [4][5] Palm Oil - Due to the Christmas holiday, major global exchanges were closed, but DCE palm oil continued its rebound. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, South American soybean production prospects were optimistic, limiting US soybean prices. However, China's procurement plan provided support. Domestically, the supply was loose, and inventory pressure was deferred to the far months [5] Live Hogs - Supply was high as farmers increased slaughter. Demand improved marginally as the peak of curing in the southwest approached, which supported prices to some extent [5] Copper - Supply was potentially disrupted by labor negotiations at a Chilean mine. Demand was weak as high prices discouraged downstream enterprises, except for some刚需 in the new energy and power grid sectors. Macro factors provided support, but market sentiment was cautious [5] Iron Ore - Global shipments and arrivals decreased, while port inventories increased. Terminal demand was low in the off-season, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [6] Asphalt - The refinery's production plan for January decreased, and inventories increased. Downstream demand was weak, and prices were expected to remain volatile [6] Logs - Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. The supply-demand relationship was stable, and future price trends depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, but production remained low. Demand was weak but resilient, and cost provided support. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] Alumina - The market supply-demand pattern was loose, and spot prices were weak. Futures rebounded technically due to short-term capital and macro factors. Prices were expected to remain low and volatile [7] Aluminum - Macro factors were positive, but domestic fundamentals were weak. Aluminum prices were expected to remain high and volatile [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that there are differences between bulls and bears, and methanol is oscillating and bullish [1]. - Affected by the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level. The downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the olefin futures profit is weakening. With the weakening of the rebound momentum of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, with a slight increase in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Thursday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For methanol 2605, the short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The bullish/bearish criteria are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for short - term and medium - term views [3][4]. Price and Driving Logic - Affected by supply pressure, coal price correction, inventory, and demand factors, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. After that, it maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: International market sees a stronger dollar and improved supply, with ICE raw sugar hitting a one - month low. In the domestic market, increased Brazilian exports, lower - than - expected Indian export quotas and low export possibilities, along with a decrease in the number of sugar mills in Guangxi starting production, have led to a continuous decline in sugar prices. Attention should be paid to the support at the 5000 integer level [3] - **Cotton**: The current domestic downstream shows resilience. With the expectation of tight annual domestic supply and demand, the overall trend of Zhengzhou cotton is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be room for an increase, but there is still some short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream orders and the digestion of the hedging pressure of high - cost new cotton [14] - **Apple**: The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, with most transactions on an as - needed basis. The restocking of merchants has temporarily ended. In Gansu, merchants are mainly engaged in packaging and shipping, while there are not many order - based merchants. In Shaanxi, the shipping atmosphere is not strong, with only a small amount of second - grade fruit from farmers being shipped. In Shandong, the export is mainly small fruits through foreign trade channels [18] - **Jujube**: The new jujube harvest is basically completed. Due to the reduction in production, it is expected that there may be limited downward space for jujube prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday procurement situation in the downstream [26] 3. Data Summaries Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5177 with a daily decline of 0.29% and a weekly decline of 2.69%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline. For spreads, SR01 - 05 was 90, SR05 - 09 was - 18, etc. [4] - **Basis**: On December 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 78 with a daily decline of 27 and a weekly increase of 66. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 28 with a daily decline of 2 and a weekly increase of 46. Other basis data also showed different changes [9] - **Import Prices**: On December 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3995, with a daily decline of 87 and a weekly decline of 115. The out - of - quota price was 5058, with a daily decline of 114 and a weekly decline of 150. Similar price changes were observed for Thai sugar imports [12] Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On the reporting day, Cotton 01 closed at 14045, up 75 or 0.54%. Cotton 05 closed at 14015, up 55 or 0.39%. Cotton 09 closed at 14175, up 45 or 0.32%. For棉纱, Yarn 01 closed at 19930, up 25 or 0.13%, while Yarn 05 closed at 20080, down 25 or - 0.12%, and Yarn 09 closed at 0, down 100% [15] - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1130, down 49. The spread of Cotton 01 - 05 was 30, up 20. Other spreads also had corresponding changes [15] Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9585, up 1.08% daily but down 1.60% weekly. Spot prices of different apple varieties in different regions remained mostly stable, with some showing small fluctuations. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1, with no change [19] - **Spreads and Other Data**: AP01 - 05 was 415, up 0.97% daily and 169.48% weekly. The main contract basis was - 125, up 267.65% daily but down 75.63% weekly [19] Jujube The report did not provide specific price data but mentioned the expected price trend and provided historical charts of futures spreads, including Jujube Futures Spread (01 - 05), Jujube Futures Spread (05 - 09), and Jujube Futures Spread (09 - 01) [26][27][29]