Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have experienced a high-level reduction in positions, leading to a decline in prices, raising questions about whether demand is weak or if there are other underlying issues [1] Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is currently witnessing a significant reduction in open positions, which has contributed to a downward trend in prices [1] - There is speculation regarding the potential peak of palm oil prices, as the market grapples with the implications of reduced demand [1] - Analysts are questioning whether the observed price decline is solely due to weak demand or if there are additional factors at play influencing the market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a short-term rebound in PTA due to cost and policy support, market attention is shifting towards the effective capacity that is truly impacted, suggesting potential for future price increases [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's exports surged by 50% in May, leading to a reduction in palm oil inventory to 2.9 million tons [1] - Institutions anticipate that India's replenishment demand will continue into the third quarter [1] - The question remains whether the favorable conditions for palm oil will be sufficient to help prices break through upper resistance levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main article discusses the recent performance of coking coal futures, highlighting a 6.33% increase in the main contract during the night session, driven by slow resumption of operations and low inventory levels, raising questions about future price trends [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures saw a significant rise of 6.33% in the main contract during the night trading session [1] - The increase in prices is attributed to a combination of slow recovery in operations and low inventory levels [1] Group 2: Future Price Outlook - The article raises the question of whether prices will continue to rise in the future due to the current market conditions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy expectations and external factors such as tariffs and international market trends [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Commodity **Stock Index Futures** - On July 18, A - share major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1571.1 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4058.55, up 24.06 [1] **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: On July 18, the weighted coke index was strongly consolidated, closing at 1527.0, up 19.2. The coking coal price increase led to a decline in coking enterprise profits and insufficient production enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous decline in daily coke output. Although the molten iron in the off - season decreased slightly, the absolute level was at a high point in the year, supporting the daily consumption of furnace materials. The coke inventory of coking enterprises decreased, and the market was optimistic with expectations of price increases [1] - Coking Coal: On July 18, the weighted coking coal index remained strong, closing at 943.2 yuan, up 23.8. Some coal mines had limited production due to underground reasons, and the supply recovery was slow. During the Nadam Fair, Mongolian coal imports were restricted, and the port inventory decreased. As spot transactions improved, coke - steel enterprises increased their inventories, and the futures price fluctuated strongly [2] **Zhengzhou Sugar** - The news that Coca - Cola changed its formula to use cane sugar in the US market supported the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 18. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China imported 1.0508 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29% year - on - year. As of July 15, speculators reduced their short positions in ICE US raw sugar futures for the second consecutive week [2] **Rubber** - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted on July 18. As of July 18, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,916 tons, a decrease of 673 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2050 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 40,824 tons, an increase of 402 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons [3] **Shanghai Copper** - In the short term, the shortage of the copper ore supply and low processing fees support the price. However, there is an expectation of increased global copper mine production, and supply pressure may gradually appear in the long term. The off - season demand is weak and may continue. The US tariff policy is an important uncertain factor. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the upper pressure level around 79,000 and the lower support level around 77,000 [3][4] **Cotton** - On the night of July 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,230 yuan/ton. On July 21, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 53 lots compared with the previous day [4] **Log** - The 2509 contract opened at 838 on July 18, with the lowest at 824, the highest at 846.5, and closed at 828.5, with a decrease of 625 lots in positions. The market reached a four - month high and then declined, with increased trading volume. The support level is 800 - 820, and the pressure level is 850. From January to June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. The port shipment volume decreased, and the spot trading was weak [4] **Steel** - Policy signals of "anti - involution" production restrictions and expanding domestic demand have led to an increase in the expectation of supply - side contraction in the second half of the year. The black - series futures led the increase, driving up the spot price. However, in the coming week, if there is no new positive news, the pressure for futures long - positions to take profits will increase. After profit recovery, the willingness of electric - arc furnaces to resume production has increased, and the weekly output may stop falling and increase slightly. It is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [5] **Alumina** - The domestic bauxite port inventory is gradually increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Due to the increase in spot and futures prices, smelters' production willingness has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. Although the increase in alumina prices has increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants, the high aluminum price still provides good profits, and a capacity replacement project in Yunnan supports the demand for alumina. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is stable [5] **Shanghai Aluminum** - Major producers maintain normal production, and some expanded production capacities are being released. The operating capacity is at a high level. Due to the off - season, the ingot - casting volume has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand from traditional industries is weak, and although emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are developing rapidly, their demand - pulling effect is limited at present. The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in agricultural futures prices, particularly soybean meal, driven by increased downstream demand [2] - On July 18, soybean meal futures opened at 3031 CNY/ton, peaking at 3059 CNY/ton, closing at 3056 CNY/ton, marking a 1.49% increase [2] - Soybean meal futures have been on an upward trend since early 2025, influenced by rising costs and macroeconomic improvements [2][3] Group 2: Import Costs - Rising import costs for soybeans, with U.S. soybean import cost at 4616 CNY, Brazilian soybeans at 3910 CNY, and Argentine soybeans at 3707 CNY as of July 18 [3] - The increase in soybean meal prices is linked to higher import costs, particularly due to improved U.S. soybean exports and strong Brazilian soybean prices [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. soybean crushing volume adjusted upward by 1.4 million tons to 69.13 million tons due to increased demand for biodiesel [4] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 totaled 49.37 million tons, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable shift in import sources [6] - Current soybean meal inventory levels are high, with oil mills facing storage issues, leading to slower downstream purchasing despite rising prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to remain supported by strong Brazilian pricing and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations [8][9] - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could positively impact soybean exports, providing a boost to the market [5][8] - The upcoming weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions will be critical for determining future price trends [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent increase in palm oil futures prices and explores the fundamental conditions that need to be met for the price to continue rising [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures have seen a significant rise today, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The article raises questions about the fundamental factors that would support a continued increase in palm oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].

Group 1 - Malaysian palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive days of gains, driven by a decline in palm oil production and strong export demand [1] - There is a potential decrease in Malaysia's palm oil inventory, which may impact market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether palm oil prices can maintain their strength amid these changing conditions [1]