来源：金十数据 热门品种机构观点 一、焦炭主力合约：期价快速回落，近月跌幅明显 今日焦炭期货强势下跌，主力合约收跌3.15%，报1585元/吨。 光大期货表示，港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级治金焦现货价格1460元/吨，较上期价格涨 10。供应方面，原料端焦煤价格回落，当前焦企尚有一定利润，开工仍保持高位，焦炭供应量有明显提 升，中间投机贸易商观望情绪浓厚，钢厂采购积极性转弱，部分焦企出货压力增加。需求端，钢厂日均 铁水产量并未出现大幅下降，近期铁路运输较为紧张，部分钢厂原料到货情况不佳，钢厂对焦炭需求仍 有一定韧性，钢厂盈利不佳的背景下，钢厂有意向原料端施压。 新湖期货认为，平均利润受上下游让利好转，开工略有回升，供给环比增加。需求端，铁水日均产量 232.3万吨，周环比下降2.38万吨，铁水季节性下滑，刚需走弱，上游焦化厂继续累库，港口和下游钢厂 去库，总库存去库。焦炭冬储时间一般提前春节4周左右，目前时间尚早。盘面01合约前期已计价12月 的4轮提降预期，第一轮提降落地以后，利空正在兑现，而实际焦化厂利润理论上只能给到2-3轮的提降 空间，期价前期超跌1-2轮，近期有所修复。后续来看，焦炭期价主 ...

机构观点 铜冠金源期货：焦企连续三周盈利，焦企开工提升，焦炭产量增加，但下游需求偏弱，出货不畅库存增 加，同时焦企自身焦煤库存偏高，补库意愿不强，采销两弱。上游矿山维持增产，库存增加，压制煤 价。基本面供强需弱，焦煤线上流拍增加，焦炭提降预期较强，预计期价震荡偏弱走势。 11月份，铁路部门全力做好冬季煤炭保供运输，国家铁路累计发送煤炭1.84亿吨，同比增长0.3%，其中 电煤1.28亿吨，保持高位，有力保障了各地冬季采暖、发电用煤需求。截至11月底，全国铁路直供电厂 存煤8823万吨，可耗天数35.8天，同比增加1天，其中存煤15天以下的电厂实现动态清零。 本周统计全国230家独立焦企样本：产能利用率为72.64%，增0.62%；焦炭日均产量50.83万吨，增0.43 万吨；焦炭库存44.69万吨，减0.52万吨。 12月5日，焦炭期货午后呈现大幅下跌走势，截至发稿主力合约报1595.0元/吨，跌幅达2.54%。 【消息面汇总】 据外媒报道，11月，澳大利亚核心焦煤产区昆士兰州最北端的三个港口共计发运煤炭1150万吨，同比增 长2.8%。 瑞达期货（002961）：宏观面，美国银行全球研究表示，目前预计美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th rubber futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 12,085.00 yuan, down 0.86% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures expects short-term rubber prices to maintain wide fluctuations due to ongoing supply release from overseas production areas and increasing domestic inventory [2] - Guodu Futures indicates that domestic rubber supply will gradually weaken as production areas exit the harvesting season, leading to a slightly stronger trend in rubber prices despite weak consumption [3] - Shanjin Futures notes that due to the off-season demand, the price trend of 20th rubber may remain relatively weak, although synthetic rubber prices are showing signs of recovery due to decreased inventory of raw materials [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for rubber shows a clear divergence, with synthetic rubber futures rising nearly 4%, while natural rubber and No. 20 rubber futures exhibit a more moderate performance, attributed to multiple factors including cost dynamics, supply changes, and seasonal demand [2] Group 1: Synthetic Rubber Market - The significant rise in synthetic rubber futures is primarily driven by cost factors, particularly the decrease in port inventory of the raw material butadiene, leading to tighter supply and enhanced cost support [2] - The relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber is strong, with supply contraction in natural rubber due to stoppages in Yunnan and an expanded price gap between Thai mixed rubber and synthetic rubber providing additional support for synthetic rubber prices [2] - Despite the recent price rebound, the weak downstream demand poses a challenge for the sustainability of synthetic rubber price increases, particularly during the seasonal demand lull in the tire market [2][3] Group 2: Tire Industry Impact - The tire industry, a major consumer of synthetic rubber, is expected to underperform in Q4, with a significant year-on-year decline in capacity utilization for semi-steel tire manufacturers, indicating a slowdown in synthetic rubber demand [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Although the trading atmosphere for synthetic rubber has improved, inventory levels remain high and supply is ample, with the price of butadiene lacking sustained upward momentum, suggesting that the recent rebound is more of a correction from overselling rather than a strong upward trend [4] - For natural rubber, the focus is on supply, with recent rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, but the increase in exports from Thailand has alleviated concerns about supply shortages, maintaining a neutral supply-demand structure [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for synthetic rubber prices is expected to maintain a phase of recovery due to improved macroeconomic conditions, while natural rubber and No. 20 rubber prices may remain relatively weak due to seasonal demand factors [4] - The potential for further price increases in synthetic rubber futures appears limited, with expectations of a bottoming and oscillating pattern [5]

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a current focus on supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close, the main glass futures contract reached a high of 993.00 yuan/ton and a low of 967.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.11% [1] - The overall performance of the glass market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Yide Futures notes a reduction in supply with a daily融 of 15.7 million tons, and there are expectations for improved demand in the fourth quarter, driven by inventory reduction [1] - Zhongcai Futures indicates that the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with many downstream players anticipating further price declines, leading to a generally stable but weak price outlook [1] - Jianxin Futures highlights that the market has returned to fundamental trading as the enthusiasm for procurement has waned, and the current demand is insufficient to drive prices up [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is stabilizing, and the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is gradually narrowing [1]. - After the recent price decline due to increased production, the price of crude palm oil may recover in the first quarter of 2026, supported by the seasonal low - production period. Affin Hwang IB estimates the average price of crude palm oil to be between 4,200 - 4,350 ringgit per ton in 2025 and 4,350 - 4,450 ringgit per ton in 2026 [5]. - The market sentiment has improved in the short term, but the fundamentals remain cautious. The continued rebound of soybean prices depends on China's actual procurement volume and the export rhythm of US soybeans [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,590 yuan/ton (down 0.30% during the day session) and 8,630 yuan/ton (up 0.47% during the night session); the soybean oil main contract was 8,138 yuan/ton (up 0.37% during the day session) and 8,156 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the night session); the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,407 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day session) and 9,438 yuan/ton (up 0.33% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,109 ringgit/ton (down 0.84% during the day session) and 4,122 ringgit/ton (up 0.34% during the night session), and the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 49.71 cents/pound (up 0.36%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 546,167 lots (a decrease of 10,434 lots), and the open interest was 423,090 lots (an increase of 17,113 lots); the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 248,485 lots (a decrease of 33,875 lots) and an open interest of 482,137 lots (an increase of 1,482 lots); the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 142,702 lots (a decrease of 20,827 lots) and an open interest of 214,565 lots (an increase of 1,525 lots) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,480 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton); the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton (an increase of 5 US dollars/ton) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 443 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 817 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 452 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 106 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for another year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2][6]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 14.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of only 0.3% [4]. - India's palm oil imports in October 2025 dropped to a five - year low due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds. The total import volume, including crude and refined palm oil, was 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [4]. - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.2%. Analysts expect the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season in the week ending October 30, 2025, will be between 400,000 and 2 million tons. Traders estimated that speculative funds net - bought 8,500 lots of soybeans on Wednesday [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [7].

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 6257.00 yuan and closing at 6321.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.02% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The supply and demand dynamics for styrene lack upward momentum, with high inventory levels and limited demand growth [3] - Recent maintenance of major production facilities, including Tianjin Bohua and Sinopec Quanzhou, has led to a decrease in styrene production and capacity utilization [2][3] - Downstream operating rates have generally decreased, contributing to a narrow decline in consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS [2] Group 2: Price Trends - Styrene prices are expected to stabilize after a period of decline, with current market conditions indicating a potential for price recovery [4] - The current inventory levels at ports are high, but there has been significant inventory reduction recently, which may support price stabilization [4] - The cost side shows that OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 next year, which may counteract bearish pressures from December production increases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 4680.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.04% [1] - The spot market for PVC in Hangzhou is stable but weak, with prices for various types ranging from 4550 to 4760 yuan/ton, showing slight adjustments [1] - The overall profit margins for enterprises remain low, with valuation pressure being minimal in the short term, while production levels are at historical highs due to limited maintenance [1] Group 2 - Demand is under pressure due to low operating rates caused by high temperatures, leading to limited improvement in demand, while social inventory has slightly increased [1] - The outlook for November indicates continued pressure on the PVC market, with high inventory levels expected to result in weak price fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal decline in pure benzene futures driven by downstream demand, highlighting the fluctuations in production rates and profitability across various downstream products [1][2]. Group 1: Downstream Demand and Production - From July to mid-September, downstream industries typically increase their inventory, leading to a rise in operating rates, which then decline in late September as demand weakens [1]. - In the first nine months of the year, downstream demand for pure benzene grew by 8% year-on-year, with specific products like styrene, caprolactam, and phenol seeing increases of 17.3%, 7.6%, and 2% respectively, while demand for adipic acid and aniline fell by 3.8% and 8.2% [1]. - Styrene production profits were decent from May to July, but high operating rates led to increased supply, causing profits to drop significantly from August onwards, reaching historical lows [1]. Group 2: Operating Rates and Future Projections - The operating rates for styrene, caprolactam, and adipic acid have recently decreased week-on-week, indicating a potential decline in production rates moving forward [1]. - The overall operating rate for pure benzene downstream is expected to decline further due to weak terminal demand and recent maintenance schedules [1]. - The maintenance of pure benzene facilities is projected to decrease from 213,600 tons in October to around 110,000 tons in November and December, suggesting a potential recovery in operating rates after an initial decline [1]. Group 3: Import and Supply Dynamics - China remains the largest consumer and importer of pure benzene globally, with an import dependency of about 20% [2]. - In the first nine months, domestic pure benzene production increased by 5.7%, while imports surged by 40.5%, leading to a total supply growth of 10.4% [2]. - The significant increase in imports is attributed to the near-total shipment of Korean pure benzene to China since last year's fourth quarter, with a notable drop in shipments observed in October [2]. Group 4: Cost Factors and Price Outlook - The long-term outlook for the crude oil market suggests a supply surplus, with recent geopolitical risks easing, which may lead to a decline in crude oil prices and weaken cost support for pure benzene [2]. - Given the anticipated decline in crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, the short-term outlook for pure benzene prices appears bearish, although medium to long-term factors such as high downstream operating rates and decreasing import volumes may support price recovery [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals by New Era Futures Research, dated October 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2512 rose from 84,390 to 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 84,850 to 86,400, up 1,550 or 1.83% [2] - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2512 increased from 20,910 to 21,225, a weekly rise of 315 or 1.51%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai went up from 20,940 to 21,110, an increase of 170 or 0.81% [2] - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2512 climbed from 21,830 to 22,355, a weekly gain of 525 or 2.40%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 21,880 to 22,200, up 320 or 1.46% [2] - Lead: The futures price of PB2512 rose from 17,090 to 17,595, a weekly increase of 505 or 2.95%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot rose from 16,900 to 17,300, up 400 or 2.37% [2] - Nickel: The futures price of NI2512 increased from 121,330 to 122,150, a weekly gain of 820 or 0.68%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel went up from 122,350 to 122,900, an increase of 550 or 0.45% [2] - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 increased slightly from 2,800 to 2,810, a weekly rise of 10 or 0.36%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 2,990 to 2,950, a decline of 40 or -1.34% [2] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2601 rose from 8,800 to 8,920, a weekly increase of 120 or 1.36%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9,500 to 9,400, a decline of 100 or -1.05% [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2601 increased from 75,780 to 79,520, a weekly gain of 3,740 or 4.94%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 73,850 to 75,400, up 1,550 or 2.10% [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2601 decreased from 54,850 to 52,305, a weekly decline of 2,545 or -4.64%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 52,800 to 52,980, up 180 or 0.34% [2] Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of October 24, SHFE copper inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or -4.90% from last week. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or -0.58% from last week. As of October 23, COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons or +0.81% from last week [13][14] - Zinc: As of October 24, LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or -1.13% from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons or -2.23% from last week [23] - Aluminum: As of October 24, LME aluminum inventory was 473,100 tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 118,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week. COMEX aluminum inventory was 7,422 tons, an increase of 761 tons from last week [40][41] Group 4: Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of October 23, the spot TC of copper concentrate was -40.70 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [17] - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of October 24, the latest quote was 881 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 35 dollars/ton [20] - Zinc Concentrate: As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, remaining the same as on October 17 [24] Group 5: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In August, automobile production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of total vehicle sales [44] - Real Estate: From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area was 398 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5% [46] - Power Generation: As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%, and wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1% [48] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina is expected to run weakly and oscillatingly; Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] - Long - term: Terminal demand remains resilient. Considering the US dollar interest - rate cut rhythm and positive macro sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] Polysilicon - Short - term: For polysilicon, policy influence continues to ferment, with short - term high - level range oscillation. For industrial silicon, as the wet season in the southwest ends and electricity prices rise, manufacturers will arrange production cuts at the end of the month, and the production cost of industrial silicon may increase. Attention should be paid to policy expectation guidance [55] - Long - term: The industry's over - supply pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm and actual demand follow - up [55]