Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a state of slight weakness in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand side is slightly recovering, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly, closing at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 363,000 lots, the open interest was 587,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.187 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 10 yuan to 794 yuan, and Super Special powder dropped 10 yuan to 670 yuan. The swap main contract was 104.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.75 US dollars). The spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 823.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 34.2 yuan/ton, with a significant contraction. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 18 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis. Although it showed a weak shock in the short - term, the overall downside space might be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The current arrival volume decreased month - on - month, and there were expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The arrival of the first batch of iron ore from Mangu increased the expected supply pressure [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [2]. - Inventory: Ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory under pressure increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The inventory of steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: Policies focused on new fields, such as a 25 - basis - point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Exports were more resilient than expected, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December. Social financing data showed that corporate loans and bond financing were stronger than seasonal, but the real estate and infrastructure were seasonally weak. The improvement of inflation was clear, and PP was expected to continue to recover [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core观点 - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile and slightly weak in the short term, with limited downside potential due to the back structure and positive basis of the futures contracts, as well as the gradual transfer of inventory from ports to steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract continued to trade in a narrow range, closing at 812 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 256,000 lots, and open interest was 649,000 lots, with a capital inflow of 11.591 billion yuan. The price is expected to test the lower support in the short term [1]. - Spot prices of major port varieties in Qingdao were relatively stable, while the swap price declined again. The basis of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 40.2 yuan/ton, with little change. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating limited downside potential but a short - term weakening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased on a month - on - month basis, especially in Brazil. Port arrivals increased, and high arrivals are expected to continue. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased, some blast furnace restart was postponed, steel mill profitability improved, and steel mills started to replenish inventory. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure was increasing, while steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Consumption supported the economy, inflation declined, and the Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy was in a "light to moderate" expansion, with regional differences in performance. Employment was mainly for filling vacancies, and price pressure generally eased [4]. - Domestic: Incremental policies were continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current economic situation was still in the off - season, but the policies issued since the fourth quarter were entering the implementation stage. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. The supply side shows a gradual reduction in new shipments, the demand side has a slight recovery, and although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the downside space is limited [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, closing at 813 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 253,000 lots, the open interest was 650,000 lots, and the settled funds were 11.672 billion yuan. The price is in a continuous narrow - range oscillation between 810 and 830, and there may be a further decline and adjustment in the short term [1]. - **Spot prices**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 3 to 825 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped 3 to 697 yuan/ton, and the main swap was 107.00 (-1.25) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices fell again [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 853.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40.1 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 19 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 19 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with limited downside space but may be weakly volatile in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a more obvious decline in Brazil. The arrivals increased month - on - month this period, and the previous high shipments are expected to support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expectations of supply disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The small - sample hot metal production decreased, but there is still an expectation of recovery. The profitability rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of hot metal before the festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate significantly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Overseas**: A series of data released by the United States this week showed that the fundamentals continued to cool down. The overall overseas macro - driving logic has not changed significantly. New non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, while the unemployment rate decreased unexpectedly. The ADP employment in December improved but was still lower than expected, and job vacancies dropped to a 14 - month low. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States continued to weaken in December, while the ISM service PMI rebounded. On January 12, a criminal investigation was launched against Fed Chairman Powell, which increased investors' concerns about the weakening of the Fed's independence [4]. - **Domestic**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall domestic macro - environment may continue to improve moderately, with the focus on the investment side. Although the current fundamentals are still in a weak off - season, the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the early - batch implementation since January are also expected to continue. The PMI data and price data in December have shown moderate improvement. Attention should be paid to the high - frequency physical work volume performance in January and the progress and sustainability of policy implementation [4].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The supply side shows a decline in new shipments, the demand side is slightly recovering, the port inventory is still increasing but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main futures contract of iron ore continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, closing at 821 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 238,000 lots, the open interest was 663,000 lots, and the settled funds were 11.969 billion yuan. Pay attention to the test near the previous high of 840 [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties changed little, and the swap price also had minor fluctuations. The PB powder in Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 704 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main swap was 108.00 (-0.18) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 42.9 yuan/ton with little change. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and positive basis, with limited downside space and short - term continuation of the shock [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, especially in Brazil. The arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are expected to support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expectations of supply disturbances [2] - On the demand side, there are both blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The previously resumed blast furnaces have returned to full production, and the molten iron increased significantly month - on - month. The steel mill profitability weakened slightly. The daily consumption increased, the replenishment demand increased, but the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow [2] - In terms of inventory, the port continued to accumulate a large amount of inventory, the pressure - port inventory increased, the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: A series of data released by the US this week showed that the fundamentals continued to cool down. The overall overseas macro - driving logic has not changed significantly, including factors such as non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, job vacancies, and ISM PMIs. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell on January 12 increased investors' concerns about the weakening of the Fed's independence [3] - Domestic: Since the beginning of the year, the overall domestic macro - environment may continue to improve mildly, with the focus on the investment side. Although the current fundamentals are still in the off - season and at a weak level, the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered the key period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the early - approved projects in January are also expected to follow up, and the PMI and price data in December have improved mildly. Pay attention to the high - frequency physical work volume in January and the progress and continuity of policy implementation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of gradually strengthening in an oscillatory manner. Although there may be a certain decline and adjustment in the short term, the downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments begins to decrease gradually, the demand side recovers slightly, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4]. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, closing at 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or +0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 640,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were 11.466 billion yuan. The disk price faced pressure and pulled back near the previous high of 840, and is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 821 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 108.35 (+0.1) US dollars/ton, with no change in spot and swap prices [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 857.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.9 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 37.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and although it was weak in the short term, the downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - After the year - end rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. The current arrival volume increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - On the demand side, molten iron production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance, the blast furnaces were restarted, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and inventory replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace restart in January, and attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - In terms of inventory, port inventory continued to accumulate, the number of berthed ships increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of inventory replenishment demand was still slow. The general rise in commodity prices drove the iron ore disk to break through upwards, and the sentiment resonated with the restart of molten iron production and steel mill inventory replenishment, supporting the price to run strongly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations in the first quarter are gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with certain optimizations and adjustments compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds that were not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium have entered a consolidation period and are seeking a more rational price point to restart. The overall volatility of precious metal varieties is expected to decline next week [3][5] - The prices of Guangbo and Guangpalladium retreated significantly this week, but their fundamentals remain unchanged. The capital outflow from the precious metal sector may be due to profit - taking or pre - holiday risk - aversion. After the market sentiment was cooled, platinum and palladium will gradually find a reasonable price [5] 3. Summaries by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Price and Volume**: This week, Guangbo and Guangpalladium followed silver in a significant retreat. The main platinum contract fell 22.08% and the main palladium contract fell 15.33%. Both were heavily reduced in position, with palladium having a larger reduction. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [5][6][8] - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: The spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum main contract converged and inverted, and the spread between NYMEX platinum continuous and main contract was slightly at a discount. The spread between London palladium spot and NYMEX palladium main contract also converged [11][13] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: There are profit opportunities in platinum and palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage, near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage, and import parity arbitrage [15][17][19][21][23][25] - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium declined, the recycling discounts of platinum and palladium converged to - 60 yuan/gram and - 50 yuan/gram respectively [27] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.02 tons (about 32,700 ounces) and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.61 tons (about 19,500 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings is rising, and that of palladium is slower but stronger than last week [29] Fundamental Aspect (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Premium/Discount Rate**: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the platinum discount in the domestic market has risen significantly, and the palladium discount structure has returned to near - month > far - month [34] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly to 652,800 ounces (about 20.30 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 55%. NYMEX palladium inventory continued to flow in slightly to 210,000 ounces (about 6.53 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 67% [35][38] - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and the net inflow has slowed down. Since 2020, palladium has been in a pure import state, and the net inflow increased in November [45] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was 100 kg. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative only for 2 days with a small absolute value [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the 2601 contract experiencing the largest drop, attributed to three main factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures are under pressure due to delivery warehouse inventory issues, with the current cost of Mongolian coal at 952 CNY/ton leading to a theoretical warehouse cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton, resulting in a delivery discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1]. - The increase in Mongolian coal imports, with weekly truck traffic reaching nearly 14,000 vehicles, represents a 58% month-on-month growth, reversing previous supply shortages [2]. - Weak demand from downstream steel production, with iron output decreasing by approximately 19,000 tons since early November, has led to a significant reduction in inventory replenishment needs [2]. Group 2: Price Influences - The decline in coking coal prices is exacerbated by a weaker thermal coal market, with national electricity consumption showing a negative year-on-year growth rate [2][4]. - The price drop in coking coal is estimated to be influenced by warehouse factors (approximately 100 CNY/ton), thermal coal price declines (around 75 CNY/ton), and market sentiment (about 205 CNY/ton), with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]. - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated, indicating that the decline in coking coal prices is not solely driven by thermal coal [4]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The potential for reduced imports of seaborne coal is increasing as the profitability of Australian coal imports has shifted from a profit of 155 CNY/ton to a loss, while the profit margin for long-term Mongolian coal contracts has narrowed to 190 CNY/ton [4]. - The overall supply situation is expected to remain weak, with domestic production typically declining towards the end of the year, limiting further increases in Mongolian coal supply [3].

Report Overview - The report is a futures research report on urea by Guantong Futures, released on November 4, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the demand side supports the futures price, and the current futures price is still at a discount to the spot price. Seasonal storage enterprises should pay attention to the futures hedging opportunities [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and fluctuated strongly on the day. Both the futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] - Urea production continues to rise, with the daily output exceeding 190,000 tons. There is no large - scale gas and production restriction yet, and high - level daily production is expected in the near future [1] - Due to the strong demand for peak - winter energy, coal prices are expected to rise, and the cost of coal - water slurry process provides support for urea prices [1] - The demand for autumn fertilizers is ending, and other demands are mainly for fertilizer storage. The price of compound fertilizer for winter storage is still in the negotiation stage. After the phosphate fertilizer meeting, the procurement is expected to start [1] - The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased. The operating rate will gradually rise, and the finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1] - Due to the improvement in weather and the end of agricultural demand, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. Coupled with fertilizer storage demand, the urea inventory has decreased this period [1] - India issued a long - term contract tender for 2.5 million tons in 2026 on November 3, 2025, an increase of 1 million tons compared to 2025 [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,624 yuan/ton, closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The trading volume was 272,271 lots (+2,518 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 4,948 lots, and short positions increased by 1,723 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +3,341 lots, Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 302 lots, Minmetals Futures had a net short position of - 1,054 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of +997 lots [2] - On November 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, a net increase of 2,445 compared to the previous trading day [2][3] Spot - The spot price rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 160 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - On November 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].