Investment Rating - The report indicates a defensive attribute for the North Exchange market, with a slight decline in the North Exchange 50 Index by 0.22% and an overall trading volume of 20.68 billion yuan, suggesting a focus on sectors with stable performance [3][12]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 20.68 billion yuan on October 14, an increase of 0.889 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1484.19, down 0.22% [1][7]. - The market showed significant differentiation, with certain stocks like Tonghui Electronics and KaiTeng Gas rising against the trend, while others like Jiuling Technology and Ximic Technology experienced notable declines [3][14]. - The main market themes revolved around trade dynamics and domestic substitution, particularly in the cultivated diamond and superhard materials sectors, which saw substantial gains due to export control policies [3][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On October 14, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 20.68 billion yuan, with 278 companies listed, of which 121 rose, 9 remained flat, and 148 fell [1][12][14]. - The top five gainers included Huifeng Diamond (14.7%), Huaguang Source Sea (10.7%), and Aieneng Ju (9.3%), while the top five losers were Jiuling Technology (-10.2%), Yuanhang Precision (-9.3%), and Changfu Co., Ltd. (-7.5%) [14][16]. Important News - Tesla's Cybertruck sales have fallen short of expectations, with production line utilization estimated at only 10%, leading to skepticism about actual sales figures [17]. Key Company Announcements - Zhongke Meiling announced a cash management plan not exceeding 250 million yuan, while Yeguangming plans to invest up to 100 million yuan in safe and liquid financial products [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 13, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 72,280 yuan/ton, a -1.12% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 282,178 lots, and the open interest was 207,463 lots, compared to 221,919 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 900 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 36,718 lots, a change of -5,951 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,300 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of -450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,250 - 71,450 yuan/ton, also a change of -450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, a change of -10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories continued to decrease, and the overall market transaction activity was average [1]. - In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene end and the salt lake end, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still had growth potential. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market for both commercial and passenger use in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. 2. Company News - BYD announced its production and sales report for September 2025. In September 2025, the total installed capacity of BYD's new - energy vehicle power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 23.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 17.17% and a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2025 was approximately 203.251 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.14% [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market was weak on the day, but there was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, inventory continued to decline, and the market had some support. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline. Recently, the market was greatly affected by macro - sentiment. If there was a large rebound, short - selling hedging could be carried out at high prices [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overall, influenced by repeated news and with the alumina supply under pressure and the electrolytic aluminum consumption in the peak season, the aluminum price shows a volatile and positive trend [2][3][59] - There are risks such as Fed policy changes and a significant weakening of consumption [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures: In September, it continuously declined, reaching a monthly high of 3048 yuan/ton and a low of 2862 yuan/ton, and closed at 2904 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.35% [9] - Shanghai aluminum futures: In September, it first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 21130 yuan/ton and closing at 20625 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [9] - LME aluminum: In September, it also first rose and then fell, with a high of 2720 US dollars/ton, and the performance was slightly weaker than that of Shanghai aluminum [9] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and there are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts [12] - US economic data: In August, PPI was negative for the first time in four months, CPI increased moderately, ADP employment decreased, GDP growth rate increased, manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, retail sales increased, and the real estate market was weak [12][13] - European economic data: In the second quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate declined slightly, the ZEW economic sentiment index rebounded slightly, the consumer confidence index improved, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate increased, and the European Central Bank's attitude towards interest rate cuts was cautious [14] Domestic - In August, industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased, while fixed - asset investment increased slightly. Import and export growth rates declined, CPI was negative, and PPI ended its continuous decline [15][16] - It is expected that stable - growth policies will be introduced in the fourth quarter [19] 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - Domestic bauxite: In September, the overall domestic mine opening rate was low, and the market price fluctuated slightly [21] - Imported bauxite: In August, imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The long - term order price in the fourth quarter may decline, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea [22] - Overall, the price of bauxite may be slightly weaker [22] Alumina Supply - Production: In August, the output increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the supply will still be slightly excessive in September. Some production capacity may decrease in October [23][25] - Import and export: In August, it maintained a net export pattern, and imports are expected to increase in October [25] Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: By the end of September, the exchange inventory increased significantly for the second consecutive month [26] - Spot premium: In September, the alumina spot premium was high at first and then low, and the high premium led to high enthusiasm for spot delivery [26] Alumina Cost and Profit - In August, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in the cost of imported ores [27] Alumina Outlook - The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but some production capacity is in the theoretical loss stage. If there is concentrated production reduction and the consumption in the northwest region increases during the winter storage period, the price may stop falling [3][28][59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic production: In August, the output increased year - on - year. In September, the production capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China and the world (excluding China) will be 362.5 million tons and 237 million tons respectively [32] - Import and export: In August, imports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, exports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and net imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that imports will continue to decrease slightly [34] Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of September, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased, the aluminum rod inventory decreased, the social inventory decreased but the decline was weaker than in previous years, the SHFE inventory was flat, and the LME inventory increased [35] Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In September, the spot premium was stable at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month, and the LME premium was high at first and then low [36] Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In September, the average cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry decreased, and the profit increased [37] 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In September, the overall performance of aluminum processing improved month - on - month, but was still weaker than the traditional peak season year - on - year [51] Domestic Terminal Consumption - Real estate: The new construction scale is at a low level, and the completion area continues to decline [52] - New energy vehicles: In August, retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports increased year - on - year. It is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption [53] - Power: From January to August, the investment in power grid construction increased year - on - year, and the order volume in the fourth quarter and next year is guaranteed [53] - Photovoltaic: In August, the new installed capacity decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, but component exports increased. It is expected that exports will boost demand [54] Aluminum Product Exports - In August, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although affected by US tariffs, it still showed strong resilience [55][56] 6. Market Outlook - Macro: The US economic situation gives room for the Fed to cut interest rates, but the tariff policy is volatile. There are still policy expectations in the domestic fourth quarter [59] - Alumina: The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but there may be a stop - falling opportunity when the supply and demand are improved [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply increase pressure is not large, the consumption is in the peak season, and the price has support, but it is restricted by macro fluctuations and other factors [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the global nickel surplus pattern remains difficult to change, with increasing inventory, and prices will mainly oscillate within a platform range. For stainless steel, after the destocking ends, cost support weakens, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating state [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices fluctuating between 121,220 - 124,880 yuan/ton and finally closing at 121,800 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase from last week. Due to the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector during the National Day and the impact of Indonesia's new nickel ore policy, the price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and moved higher on October 9th, but the spot market trading was light, and the price quickly fell on October 10th. After the decline, downstream enterprises increased their purchases and the transaction improved. The latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium to the mainstream of Shanghai nickel 2511 decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area increased by 1,100 yuan/ton compared with last week [1]. - **Macro**: The US federal government shutdown on October 1st increased the uncertainty of the global economic outlook. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in October led to the strengthening of the US dollar index to 106.5 and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to 7.35, which put downward pressure on prices. During the National Day, China introduced new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure, strengthening the medium - and long - term demand expectation of new energy and high - end manufacturing for key metals. Coupled with the market's expectation of more "steady - growth" policies in the fourth quarter, the risk preference of the basic metals sector significantly increased [1]. Supply - The nickel ore market was relatively calm this week, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the rainy season is approaching in mining areas such as Surigao, and mines have gradually stopped shipping. Iron plants' profits have been hit, and they have maintained a cautious attitude towards purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remains in a loose pattern. However, the Indonesian government has shortened the mining license period from 3 years to 1 year, which has short - term concerns about the supply stability in 2026 and later. Although the 2025 quota is still valid, the policy adjustment has added variables to the medium - and long - term production capacity release [2]. Consumption - In September, the demand for stainless steel and battery materials remained basically stable, and the nickel consumption of alloys and special steels increased to some extent. However, considering that "Golden September and Silver October" is the traditional consumption peak season, the overall consumption growth was lower than expected [2]. Cost and Profit - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP is 116,448 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4.40%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated high - matte nickel is 124,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2.60%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate is 137,134 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.50%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased MHP is 137,839 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.90%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased high - matte nickel is 132,859 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7.60% [2]. Inventory - This week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, a decrease of 504 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, a decrease of 204 tons from last week; the nickel inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 3,700 tons, remaining unchanged from last week; the refined nickel inventory in China (including the free - trade zone) was 45,630 tons, a decrease of 1,371 tons from last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: Maintain the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - and long - term; Options: None [4]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of stainless steel futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 12,805 yuan/ton on Friday, a 55 - yuan increase from last week's 12,750 yuan/ton. In the first week after the festival, the spot market continued the pre - festival light situation, with poor transaction conditions and small fluctuations in overall quotes [4]. - **Macro**: During the festival, the US government shutdown increased the capital's risk - aversion demand, pushing up the overall price of commodity futures. Coupled with the expectation of two more Fed interest - rate cuts this year, it was generally positive for commodity prices. The cultural and tourism consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investment plans introduced during the National Day enhanced the market's confidence in the economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The collective strength of the basic metals sector drove the stainless steel futures to rise [4]. Supply - As "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, the stainless steel operating rate remains at a high level. Some steel mills are still operating at full capacity to complete their annual production plans. At the same time, due to the low inventory of steel mills, some shut - down steel mills have adjusted and resumed production. It is expected that the output will continue to increase in October [5]. Consumption - In the new energy sector, the demand for battery cases and photovoltaic brackets has increased to some extent, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The main downstream industries such as home appliances, machinery, and construction have a low willingness to purchase stainless steel. Especially the home appliance industry, affected by the continuous downturn of the real estate market, the sales growth of kitchen appliances, sanitary equipment and other products is slow, reducing the demand for stainless steel sheets [5]. Cost and Profit - This week, the purchase prices of high - nickel ferrochrome and high - carbon ferrochrome both decreased, driving down the cost of stainless steel. As of October 10th, the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the short - process was 13,078 yuan/ton, a - 0.66% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the process of purchasing high - nickel ferrochrome externally was 14,258 yuan/ton, a - 0.52% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the integrated process was 13,783 yuan/ton, a 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Inventory - On August 29th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the national mainstream market was 1,053,646 tons, a + 7.97% week - on - week change. The total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 624,731 tons, a + 6.14% week - on - week change. The total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 428,915 tons, a + 10.74% week - on - week change. The stainless steel inventory has continued to decline for eight consecutive weeks and has basically returned to the beginning - of - year level [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7].

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a decline, while the food and beverage sector showed resilience and activity [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw an intraday increase of 0.84%, with a trading volume exceeding 9.2 million yuan [2] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has recorded a net inflow of nearly 220 million yuan over the past 12 trading days, reaching a new historical high in circulation shares of 7.69 billion [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce reported a prosperous consumer market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with essential goods supply stable and prices steady [3] - Key retail and catering enterprises' sales increased by 3.3% compared to the same period last year during the first four days of the holiday [3] - The Gaode Street Survey released a report indicating a 300% increase in traffic for local dining establishments and a 150% year-on-year growth in orders for the local dining industry on October 1 [3] Group 3 - According to招商证券, the sales performance of high-end liquor during the holiday season met expectations, with snacks and beverages maintaining high levels of activity [4] - The performance of condiments and frozen food sectors showed improvement, while beer sales remained flat and dairy products faced ongoing pressure [4] - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant chain sector as the dining peak season approaches, with expectations for gradual improvement in company performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [8] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 2.49% from September 22 to September 26, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.56 percentage points [3][11] - The overall valuation of the industry is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries [3][16] - The report highlights the launch of a full-chain authenticity system for liquor by Meituan, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and sales as the peak consumption season approaches [4][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those actively innovating in new products and channels [5][46] Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 22 to September 26, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%. The food and beverage sector fell by 2.49%, ranking 26th out of 31 sectors [3][11] Industry Valuation - As of September 26, 2025, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio stands at 21X, with sub-sectors like other alcoholic beverages at 56X and health products at 43X, while white liquor is at 19X [3][16] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality stocks with alpha opportunities, particularly in the context of consumer transformation and low valuations [5][46] - Key companies to watch include New Dairy, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Andeli, Yanjinpuzi, and Qingdao Beer [5][46]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown significant market activity, with a notable inflow of funds and rising stock prices among key components, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong food and beverage ETF (159736) experienced a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, with a premium rate of 0.04% and frequent premium trading observed [1]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 170 million yuan over the past nine trading days, with a total circulation of 7.62 billion shares, reaching a historical high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others have shown price increases, with Yangyuan Beverage rising over 4% [2]. - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries, featuring top holdings like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Reports indicate a significant increase in the prices of premium liquor, with notable price hikes for products like Feitian Moutai and other well-known brands over a short period [3]. - The liquor market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the mid-range price segment (50-200 yuan), with increased sales reported across various regions [3]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost tourism and consumer spending, with a projected 130% increase in travel compared to the previous year, indicating a potential for strong sales in the food and beverage sector [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices showed a slight rebound followed by a callback, still in a grinding phase. It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday. In the medium - term trend, there is a bullish outlook on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit of aluminum [3]. - Alumina prices continued to move downward, and attention should be paid to the downside space. The key lies in the rigid production when the loss area of production capacity expands further [4]. - The overall fundamentals of aluminum are still not bad, with downstream consumption showing a certain degree of improvement during the consumption peak season in September [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly under the influence of the sharp rise in copper prices, but then declined again with the adjustment of copper prices. The short - term trend is still in a grinding phase [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of September 26, the weekly total output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased for the sixth consecutive week, with a cumulative year - to - date decline of - 1.39%, and the decline was still moderately expanding compared with the previous week. As of September 24, the output of aluminum profiles continued to increase steadily, and the overall sample production schedule weakened slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, currently at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [3]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In September, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% compared with the previous week. The stronger downstream sectors are aluminum plates and strips, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys; the relatively weaker sectors are aluminum profiles, aluminum foils, and recycled aluminum alloys [3]. Alumina - **Price Trend**: Alumina first rose slightly and then declined in the past week, with a large divergence in the market around the 2900 mark, and the overall center of gravity was still downward [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market remained weak. The winning bid price of a regular tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang on Monday was lower than the previous one. Manufacturers' willingness to ship and the willingness to accept tender transactions were relatively strong [4]. - **Price Changes**: As of September 26, the average prices of alumina in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia continued to decline. The FOB forward spot price in Australia continued to decline to $321/ton, and the import window remained open, with a profit of about 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina in Aladdin increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons compared with the previous week; the inventory in the Steel Union's caliber also continued to accumulate, with the all - caliber inventory reaching 4.505 million tons, increasing by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week [4]. Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 70 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 21 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton, and the premium of Henan alumina to the current month changed from 96 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the near - term months of Shanghai aluminum remained stable [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly and was at a historical high; the trading volume of the main alumina contract decreased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined; the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [20]. Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of September 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union's weekly data showed an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [25]. - In August, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China according to the Aladdin caliber continued to accumulate [25]. - The port shipping volume of Guinea decreased, and the floating inventory increased. As of September 26, the weekly port shipping volume of Guinea decreased by 215,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the floating inventory increased by 714,400 tons; the port shipping volume of Australia decreased by 153,300 tons, and the floating inventory increased by 447,400 tons [31]. - The outbound volume showed differentiation, and the inbound volume declined. As of September 19, the outbound volume of bauxite from Weipa + Gove Port in Australia decreased by 252,200 tons compared with the previous week; the outbound volume of bauxite from Boffa + Kamsar Port in Guinea increased by 217,800 tons; the inbound volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber decreased by 837,100 tons [36]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to accumulate. The total inventory increased by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week. The in - plant inventory of alumina increased slightly, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory at the platform/on - the - way increased slightly [45]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There was a reduction in inventory. As of September 25, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed differentiation this week [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foils**: As of August, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly; the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also increased slightly [61]. Production - related - **Bauxite**: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite showed differentiation in different calibers. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The supply of imported bauxite was still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The production of bauxite in Shanxi decreased slightly, while the production in Henan increased slightly in the Steel Union's caliber, and decreased in the SMM caliber. The production of bauxite in Guangxi decreased slightly in both calibers [66][70]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental situation of loose supply has not been reversed. As of September 26, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.7 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. This week, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.855 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week, still at a relatively high level in recent years [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. As of August, the operating capacity continued to be at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of September 25, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum in the Steel Union's caliber was 852,700 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally, and the supply pressure decreased [77]. - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, with a weekly increase of 2,700 tons [79]. - The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased, with a weekly decrease of 500 tons. The load of aluminum rod plants increased slightly, and the weekly output of aluminum rods increased by 600 tons [81]. - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream enterprises increased slightly, reaching 63%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum foils remained at a high level, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained unchanged. The operating rates of aluminum cables, recycled aluminum alloys, and primary aluminum alloys increased [82][88]. Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. This week, the profit of alumina decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's caliber was 158.3 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively good level. In terms of different provinces, the profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [90]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [105]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but the downstream processing profit was still at a low level. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton this week, but the overall downstream processing profit remained low [106]. Consumption - related - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed [115]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,000 tons. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [117][120]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed certain changes, and the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [124][128].

Core Insights - The demand for hot pot ingredients has significantly increased due to the cooling weather and upcoming festivals, with sales rising by 30% in September [1] - Production companies are ramping up their production lines to meet market demand, which has also led to an increase in labor requirements [1] - Sales in hot pot ingredient stores in Zhengzhou have seen a 30% increase since late September, with expectations of a 50% rise in sales during October [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is supported by tight raw materials and boosted consumption. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply growth and demand boost, with positive industry expectations and gradual inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 3.2% and an amplitude of 4.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Incident**: Mining giant Freeport reported that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident, causing casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine suspended operations [6]. - **Domestic Meeting**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting, firmly opposing the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6]. - **Fundamentals - Ore End**: The TC fee continued to operate in the negative range, the supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the port inventory of copper concentrates might decline due to the decrease in raw material imports. The cost - support logic for copper prices remained [6]. - **Supply**: In the peak consumption season and with relatively firm copper prices, smelters were still enthusiastic about production. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials limiting production capacity, domestic copper production would maintain a slight growth trend [6]. - **Demand**: The central government would implement a more active consumption - expansion policy, and with the help of the traditional peak consumption season, the expectations of the copper industry were repaired, and the starting situation of downstream copper products would significantly improve [6]. - **Inventory**: With positive consumption expectations and the development of industries such as power and new energy in the application end, the demand for refined copper might significantly increase, and the previously slightly accumulated social inventory might gradually decrease [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,560 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 112,498 lots [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 82,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,475 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [17]. - **Bill of Lading Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [23]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a decrease of 325 lots compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility [28]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6986, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0510 [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 72,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton [31]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 7.78%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.27% [34]. - **Scrap - Refined Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 2,764.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,063.8 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared with June [39]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared with June [41]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared with July, a decline of 8.17%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 407.95 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.86 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,225 tons compared with last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,282 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,281 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 145,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons [53]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [59]. - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.5% and 14% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [70]. 3.7 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of July 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [75][76].