Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 99.466, while spot silver opened at $53.31/oz and is currently around $53.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 12,396 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 12,430 CNY/kg [1] - On November 26, the US dollar index fell by 0.24% to close at 99.569. Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31/oz, driven by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Spot gold also reached a one-week high, rising by 0.79% to $4,162.35/oz, while platinum and palladium prices increased by 2.18% and 2.59%, respectively [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,582.33 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, the direction of the deferred compensation payment for Ag (T+D) was from short to long [2] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity has remained stable in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further, except for high-end consumers. The employment market has shown slight weakness, while price levels continue to rise moderately [3] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 51.422, experienced a pullback to 51.264, and then saw a strong upward trend, reaching a daily high of 53.385 before closing at 53.33. This bullish pattern suggests continued demand for upward movement, with support levels at 37.8 and 38.8, and targets set at 53.3, 53.7, and 54-54.2 [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to October[1] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant rise in vegetable prices due to rainy weather and increased holiday demand, leading to a narrowing of the food price decline to -2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 2.5% increase in travel prices, reflecting a strong demand for services during the extended holiday[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw its first month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Key contributors to the PPI increase included improved supply-demand dynamics in industries like coal and cement, with coal mining PPI rising by 1.6%[5] - The rise in international prices for non-ferrous metals also supported the domestic PPI, with a 5.3% increase in the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

Core Insights - The third set of Renminbi (RMB) is a significant artifact in China's monetary history, reflecting the economic changes of the mid-20th century and serving as a medium of exchange and a historical record [1][2] Historical Background - The third set of RMB was issued on April 20, 1962, and remained in circulation for 38 years until July 1, 2000, making it the longest-circulating RMB set [2] - It was introduced during a period of economic adjustment, aimed at stabilizing the financial order and supporting economic development [2] - The design and issuance of the third set reflect the spirit of self-reliance and hard work, showcasing China's industrial achievements and collective ideals [2] Composition of the Collection - The "Third Set of RMB Collection Album" features a comprehensive collection of major banknotes and coins, emphasizing a complete collection system of "paper money + coins" [5] Paper Money Section - The 10 yuan note symbolizes political ideals with its imagery of the People's Congress, while the 5 yuan note represents industrial enthusiasm through the depiction of steelworkers [5][8] - The 2 yuan note features a lathe worker, reflecting mechanical industry development, and the 1 yuan note highlights agricultural mechanization with the image of a female tractor driver [8] - The 5角 note showcases textile workers, emphasizing the importance of light industry [8] - The 2角 note symbolizes infrastructure achievements with the Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge, and the 1角 note is notable for its various rare editions [11] - The fractional notes (5分, 2分, 1分) are categorized into "long-number" and "no-number" types, with the former being particularly valuable due to limited circulation [11] Coin Section - The collection includes hard coins issued from the 1950s to the 1990s, made from aluminum-magnesium alloy, featuring simple designs with the national emblem [11] Collectible Value - The collection's value is driven by its historical significance, artistic value, and market scarcity [14] - Each banknote and coin serves as a historical artifact, encapsulating specific societal memories and achievements [14] - The artistic design merges political and aesthetic elements, showcasing significant industrial and agricultural imagery [14] - Market scarcity has led to high prices for well-preserved sets, with some rare items exceeding 500,000 yuan in value [17][18] Cultural Significance - The collection transcends mere collectibles, acting as a narrative of contemporary Chinese history [18][21] - It reflects the value orientations and aesthetic tastes of mid-20th century China, showcasing labor and national identity [21] - The collection serves as primary data for analyzing monetary circulation, price levels, and industrial structure during the planned economy era [21] - It has fostered a culture of collecting and appreciation for currency as a historical and artistic medium, shifting from curiosity-driven to research-oriented collecting [21]

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, while the year-on-year decline was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has positively influenced prices, with some energy and raw material sectors experiencing price increases month-on-month [3][4] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been strengthened, providing significant support for prices of covered goods, with transportation tool prices stabilizing month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [3] - Service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with household services, medical services, and educational services leading the increase, indicating the ongoing release of service consumption potential [3] - The overall low price level since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth stabilization policies [5]

Group 1 - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month changed from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March of this year [1][3] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has contributed to the stabilization of prices, with the transportation equipment prices remaining flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [2][3] Group 2 - The ongoing implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption is becoming a key driver for a moderate recovery in basic price levels, as evidenced by the increase in household appliance prices by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2][4] - The service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in August, indicating the potential for service consumption to be further released [2][3] - The overall low price level trend since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth-stabilizing policies [3][4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Export Surpasses Expectations, Prices Linger at Low Levels, Treasury Bond Futures May Continue to Fluctuate" - Report Date: August 9, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact Information: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Qualification Certificate Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The 7 - month export growth is better than expected, but likely to slow down. July's CPI is flat and PPI is down, with overall prices at a low level. Residents tend to save more. The stock market's changes will affect the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a suggestion to consider buying on dips [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.19%, the 10 - year rose 0.18%, the 5 - year rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% [5]. - As of August 8, compared with August 1, the 2 - year and 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, while the 30 - year yield increased by 1BP [7]. 3.2 Foreign Trade Data - In July, China's exports in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.8%, and imports increased by 4.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. The trade surplus was $98.24 billion. From January to July, exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year [10]. - In July, exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6%, to the EU by 9.2%, and to the US decreased by 21.7%. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five continued to grow at a high rate [12][15]. 3.3 Price Data - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1%, and rose 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while non - food prices increased [18][20]. - In July, PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.4%, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Production and living material prices both decreased [26][28]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline slightly this week after reaching a high on July 25 [31]. 3.4 Economic Survey Data - In the second - quarter urban depositor survey, the future income confidence index and employment expectation index both declined compared with the first quarter [33]. - In the second - quarter survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" increased, while those inclined to "more consumption" decreased [35]. 3.5 Capital Market Data - After the month - end, this week's capital interest rates remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, DR007 was 1.45%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate was 1.63%, lower than last week [38]. 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - **Market Logic**: The central government emphasizes policy efforts, the 7 - month export is better than expected but likely to slow, prices are low, and residents tend to save more. The stock market affects the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [41].

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic conditions in Northeast China, highlighting its low cost of living and the underlying factors contributing to this phenomenon, including low wages, high reliance on state-owned enterprises, and demographic challenges such as aging population and out-migration [4][15][39]. Group 1: Cost of Living - Northeast China is perceived as a "low-price paradise," where even a monthly salary of 3000 yuan allows for a comfortable lifestyle [4][5]. - The prices of food and services in Northeast cities like Harbin are significantly lower compared to southern cities, with examples showing meals costing as little as 9 yuan for a dish [10][11]. - The affordability extends to clothing and services, with winter clothing priced much lower than in other regions [13][14]. Group 2: Wage Levels - Wage levels in Northeast China are notably low, with personal income tax contributions in Harbin being significantly lower than in cities like Zhuhai, despite Harbin's larger population [18]. - In 2023, the average wages for urban non-private units in the three northeastern provinces ranked among the lowest in the country [19]. - The average disposable income in 2024 for residents in Jilin and Heilongjiang is below the national median, indicating economic struggles [20]. Group 3: Economic Structure - The high proportion of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China contributes to the low wage levels, with state-owned sectors dominating the job market [21][24]. - The reliance on large state-owned enterprises has created a social structure that favors employment in these entities, limiting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises [25][26]. - The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China is poor, with many reporting low profit margins and significant losses [31][37]. Group 4: Demographic Challenges - Northeast China faces significant demographic issues, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which are exacerbating economic challenges [39][40]. - The region has experienced substantial population outflow, with over 1.1 million people leaving from 2015 to 2024, further reducing the consumer base [41]. - The phenomenon of "bird migration" where many residents spend winters in warmer regions like Hainan is also noted, impacting local consumption patterns [42][43]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there are signs of potential economic recovery, particularly in the realm of exports, which have been increasing for four consecutive years [47]. - The existing industrial and research capabilities in Northeast China may provide a foundation for future growth if leveraged effectively [47].