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美豆周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 07:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline, and the market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include that the communique of the recent China - US presidential call indicates that China will not purchase US soybeans before November, the weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable with high yield prospects, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season is 1.8% [5]. - Positive factors are that policies such as the biodiesel policy and the expectation of improved China - US relations support prices, the US soybean balance sheet is in a tight balance, and La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The China - US presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement, and it is expected that China will be absent from the US soybean export market before the APEC meeting in November. The US soybean harvest progress has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - US negotiations, the weather conditions in the main production areas of the US and Brazil, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10]. - This week, US soybean meal prices declined. The market expected that improved China - US relations would bring better export prospects for US agricultural products, but the presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement [11][12]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated lower. The draft opinion on the biodiesel exemption policy has changed, adding options that worry the market about demand prospects [15]. - As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.73 per bushel, slightly down; as of September 18, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.775 per bushel; on September 18, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 120.32 reais per bag; as of September 18, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 139.81 reais per bag [17][19][23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 58% this week compared to 47% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer with no early frost threat, and there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Most of the Brazilian producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, and the Brazilian rainy season is expected to return at the end of the month. Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of September 12, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from 64% last week and the same as the same period last year [28][30][32][34][36][39]. Demand Factors - As of September 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.14 per bushel, up from $3.08 last week. The weekly US soybean export volume was 837,100 tons, up from 640,000 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 804,300 tons, up from 467,600 tons last week; the net sales for this year were 923,000 tons, down from 1,389,400 tons last week; the sales for the next year were 2,200 tons, down from 1,074,000 tons last week; the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50][52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.905, entering the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 16, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 14,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 4,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 35,000 lots, up from 17,500 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 59,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 56,700 lots last week [55][57][63][65][67].
板块品种多下跌
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:27
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating Strongly [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating [20] 2. Report's Core View - Most agricultural products showed a downward trend on September 19, 2025. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. The market trends of different products vary, including oscillations, oscillations with an upward or downward bias [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Different Varieties - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about the US biodiesel policy are rising, increasing the downward pressure on oil prices. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean conditions, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory situation in China. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the double - meal followed the market decline. Internationally, factors such as US soybean conditions, South American sowing progress, and CFTC positions affect the market. Domestically, there are issues of inventory accumulation and demand changes. It is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The current price is stable with a slight downward trend, and the supply and demand situation is affected by new grain listing and other factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. - **Live Pigs**: Before the festival, inventory is continuously reduced, and the supply and demand of live pigs are loose. In the short term, supply is abundant, and in the long term, the impact of capacity - reduction policies needs to be observed. It is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to negative sentiment, the rubber price dropped significantly. However, the fundamentals are still relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions during the callback in September, and the short - term trend is expected to oscillate strongly [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakening of natural rubber dragged down synthetic rubber. The price is in the range of 11300 - 12300, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. - **Cotton**: After the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton declined under the bearish commodity atmosphere. In the short term, the callback space is limited, and the downward pressure will increase after the large - scale listing of new cotton. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. - **Sugar**: Due to the overall bearish commodity atmosphere, the sugar price declined. In the long term, the new season's supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; in the short term, it will oscillate downward to find support [16]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and it maintains an oscillating trend. The current supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as the effectiveness of price increases in the US dollar market and seasonal demand. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and it runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is recommended to operate in the range of 4000 - 4500. It is expected to oscillate [18]. - **Logs**: With the adjustment of commodities, logs oscillate weakly. The current market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. It is expected that the price may stop falling and stabilize in September [20]. 3.2 Commodity Index Information - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all declined, with declines of 0.94%, 1.04%, and 1.06% respectively. The agricultural product index declined by 0.42% on that day, with a 5 - day decline of 1.16%, a 1 - month decline of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.24% [178][180].
中辉期货豆粕日报-20250917
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 03:40
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term outlook is bearish. Soybean meal is affected by the increase in US soybean production and inventory, and rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and high inventory [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to consolidate in the short term. Palm oil has positive consumption expectations due to biodiesel policies and purchase demand, while soybean oil faces pressure from the approaching US soybean harvest and high domestic inventory [1]. - **Oscillating with a Bullish Bias**: Rapeseed oil is likely to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the China - Canada trade dispute and dual - festival demand, but limited by the resumption of China - Australia trade [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply is under pressure from the increasing output in the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the short - term bottom of the domestic market is supported by tight supply before new cotton listing and a lower inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - **Cautious Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. There is pressure after the new jujube harvest considering the production forecast and carry - over inventory, but there may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Live pigs are cautiously bullish. The spot and near - term contracts may have limited further decline, and the price may rise as the peak season approaches and the far - term capacity is reduced [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, 1.5 million tons more than last week. The futures price of the main contract was 3041 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3067.14 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan [2][3]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish but the decline space is limited due to approaching the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons. The futures price of the main contract was 2518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2684.21 yuan/ton, up 18.95 yuan [5][7]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish, and its trend mainly follows soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of China - Canada meetings [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract was 9482 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 9508 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is bullish. The idea is to go long when the price is low, and attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil export situation this month [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.07% to 13895 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.29% to 15300 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract rose 1.24% to 67.67 cents/pound. The national cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period by 46.11 million tons [10][11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Before new cotton listing, it is advisable to conduct range operations and pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for far - month contracts [1]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube fell 0.55% to 10805 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week, higher than the same period by 4593 tons [14][15]. - **Outlook**: There is pressure after new jujube harvest. In the short term, the concern about quality issues is alleviated, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to sell high during price fluctuations [1]. Live Pig - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pig fell 0.87% to 13160 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.30% to 13340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 19.08 million tons month - on - month, and the出栏量 was 1117.72 million heads, up 26.04 million heads month - on - month [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The spot and near - term contracts have limited further decline space. The price may rise as the peak season approaches and far - term capacity is reduced. It is not recommended to short further for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to going long for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].
基本面展望偏多 棕榈油期货盘面表现偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-16 07:08
Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.22% to 9484.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Inventory and Trade Data - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions reached 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 3.58%. Year-on-year, this is an increase of 128,000 tons from 513,500 tons, marking a 24.92% rise [2] - On September 15, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports was 200 tons, a decrease of 85.71% compared to the previous trading day [2] - According to shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 to 15 was 742,648 tons, an increase of 2.6% compared to 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, suggesting a buy-on-dips strategy [3] - Jinxin Futures noted that the recent cumulative increase in the oilseed market has been significant, and with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's momentum for further gains is diminishing, leading to increased profit-taking pressure. A bearish outlook is suggested [3]
油脂周报(P、Y、OI)-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].
油脂周报:双月报中性偏空油脂预计维持震荡格局-20250915
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].
国泰君安期货美豆周度报告-20250914
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-14 10:08
Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源:同花顺,国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 资料来源:同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研究 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产,没有牛市基础;成本支撑,大跌概率小,总体震荡偏强,区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、美国对全球加关税可能导致美豆出口形势变差 | | 2、美豆主产区天气良好,单产前景预期较高 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加1.8% | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策、中美关系缓和预期等支撑价格 | | 2、美国大豆平衡表紧平衡 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可 ...
市场驱动有限,棕榈油震荡调整
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:31
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The US EPA faces significant resistance in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RINs from 2023 and 2024 to large refineries. If the previously set biofuel blending targets are met, it will be bullish for US soybean oil in the long - term. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 policy in 2026, which may increase palm oil demand by 3 million tons, but policy implementation is uncertain. With the gradual implementation of the B40 policy, the B50 policy provides some support [3][48]. - In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in August, with good export demand. Market institutions expect the ending stock of Malaysian palm oil in August to increase to 2.2 million tons, with a slightly loose supply. India's imports increased significantly in August due to festival stocking and cost - effectiveness, but future ship purchases are slow, and market transactions are sluggish. High prices suppress demand, and downstream maintains just - in - time procurement [3][48]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payroll data in August was far below expectations, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase production in October, pressuring oil prices. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [3][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Market Review - Since August, the oil sector has oscillated and closed higher. In the domestic market, at the end of August, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 to 9316 yuan/ton, up 4.46%; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 to 8358 yuan/ton, up 2.45%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 to 9789 yuan/ton, up 3.6%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 147 to 4377 ringgit/ton, up 3.48%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.65 to 52.1 cents/pound, down 4.84%; the ICE canola active contract fell 67.5 to 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.71%. In the spot market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices also rose [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812 million tons, up 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.309 million tons, up 3.82% month - on - month; domestic consumption was 483,000 tons, up 6.63% month - on - month; ending stock was 2.113 million tons, up 4.02% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons, which had a bullish impact [22]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In August, different data sources showed different trends in Malaysian palm oil production. In terms of exports, data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS all showed an increase in exports from August 1 - 31 compared to the same period last month [26]. 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.289 million tons, up 728,000 tons month - on - month and 1.244 million tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the total production was 27.89 million tons, higher than the same period last year [33]. 3.2.4 India Vegetable Oil Imports - In July 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.55 million tons, up 20,000 tons month - on - month and down 290,000 tons year - on - year. Different oils had different import trends [35]. 3.2.5 China Oil Imports - In July 2025, China's palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil imports showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The total imports of the three major oils decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [40][43]. 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.4091 million tons, up 2600 tons from the previous week and 2.913 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of different oils also had different changes [45]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Biofuel policy progress and implementation have uncertainties. In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the supply is slightly loose. India's imports are affected by festivals and prices. Macroeconomic factors and oil price trends also impact the palm oil market. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [48][49]
南华油脂油料产业周报:关注巴西开种天气-20250903
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 01:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].
国投期货农产品日报-20250902
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market of agricultural products is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends in the short - term and long - term, and some products may be suitable for long - term investment, while others need to wait for better opportunities [2][3][4] Summaries by Category Soybean - related - **Soybean (Domestic)**: After the decline in prices digested the negative news, the short positions in the domestic soybean main contract decreased, and the price rebounded. The policy - side is holding auctions, with an increase in the auction success rate. The marginal supply in the market has increased, and market participants will conduct competitive procurement this week. The domestic soybean crop is expected to be good, and new soybeans will be on the market in late September. Attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season soybeans [2] - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Internationally, due to bio - diesel policies, the global oil market is strong, which may drive up soybean crushing volume, resulting in an "oil - strong, meal - weak" situation. In the domestic market, the US tariff policy will continue to affect the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The high cost of imported Brazilian beans limits the decline of domestic bean meal. Although the soybean arrival volume in the next three months is sufficient, there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3] Oil - related - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to supply and has support from demand. The short - term domestic soybean supply is still loose, and the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. The supply - demand situation of palm oil in Malaysia has improved, and that in Indonesia is better. Considering the long - term development of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia, investors can consider buying bean and palm oil at low prices while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed - related - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed futures in the international market is under short - term pressure as rapeseeds in Canada, the EU, and Australia are about to be harvested. The supply of rapeseed will be relatively abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The short - term futures market may stabilize, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of the international rapeseed harvest [6] Other Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have shown signs of stabilization. The new - season corn crop is expected to be good due to favorable weather. Some traders in northern ports have expanded their warehouses in advance. The short - term market may be stable, and the long - term market may be weak [7] - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main contract of live - hog futures opened high and closed low. The pig - to - grain ratio is still below 6:1. The supply of live - hogs is expected to increase in September, but demand may also be supported by festivals. The price of live - hogs may still face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to policies and the release of supply [8] - **Eggs**: On Monday, the egg futures market continued to increase positions. The spot price of eggs did not rise significantly during the back - to - school season. Due to continuous losses, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the number of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. If the spot price of eggs does not rebound in September, more old hens may be culled around the Mid - autumn Festival. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, investors can consider going long, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [9]