| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9215 | 79 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 80 | 8 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -38 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285363 | 1028 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 922401 | 9439 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -14551 | -2962 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -229177 | -22631 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 645.4 | -2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 6007 | 32 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the palm oil 05 contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%. The overall oil and fat sector strengthened with fluctuations. Rapeseed oil led the rise in the oil and fat sector this week. Palm oil fluctuated upward due to factors such as geopolitical issues in Iran, the US cold wave affecting production and supply, expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support [4][6]. - The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January. It is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report data. Additionally, attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade relationship and the progress of US biodiesel policies. It is expected that palm oil will experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 0.39 to close at 53.54 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.72%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the DCE palm oil contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 188 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 389 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33%. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 142 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread increased by 59 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 330 to 9,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 150 to 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 390 to 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movements**: Similar to the data in the market data section, various oil futures contracts showed different price changes last week, with the overall oil and fat sector strengthening with fluctuations [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US pressured Canada and threatened to impose a 100% tariff. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that he was not seeking a trade agreement with China. Although the market reported that China had purchased several ships of Canadian rapeseed, the future China - Canada trade relationship remains uncertain. Geopolitical issues in Iran and the US cold wave affected production and supply, causing a significant increase in oil prices, which boosted the oil and fat sector. Expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support further strengthened the upward trend of palm oil [6]. - **Production and Export Data**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while export data from different institutions showed different trends. The SPPOMA data indicated that the yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. The MPOA data showed that the estimated production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. The ITS data showed a 9.97% increase in exports, the AmSpec data showed a 7.97% increase, and the SGS data showed a 9.41% decrease [7][8]. - **Trade News**: Trump pressured the China - Canada trade relationship. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, Chinese importers signed contracts to purchase up to 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, with a total of about 650,000 tons, equivalent to more than 10% of China's rapeseed imports in 2024 and about 26% of the 2025 import volume [8]. - **Inventory and Transaction Data**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.9528 million tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 78,000 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of January 30, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 50,660 tons, and that of palm oil was 820 tons [9]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Trump nominated Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, increasing market volatility and causing the US dollar index to rise. The US production is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation and the decline in oil prices. The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January, waiting for the MPOB report data [9]. 3.3 Industry News - India cancelled 35,000 - 40,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina, originally scheduled for February and April - July delivery. The total cancelled soybean oil orders are expected to exceed 50,000 tons due to the rupee exchange rate hitting a record low, which widened the price difference between domestic and imported soybean oil [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the monthly production, inventory, and export data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [11][13][15].

豆油：美豆题材不足，高位震荡为主 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 01 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，前高压力调整 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：月初 MPOB 报告兑现利空落地、B50 风险初现后基本面几无新增利空，同时美国生柴政策趋 近落地、印尼印度加税等炒作话题频发，寒潮、地缘等问题发酵带动原油价格上行，马来逐步兑现 1 月减 产，棕榈油季节性做多情绪高涨，但本轮上涨主要是能源带动及年前题材炒作为主，基本面无明显改善， 因此在前高位置阻力较大回落，最终棕榈油 05 合约周涨 3.63%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块上行为主，同时油粕比偏多交易思路强 化，豆油 05 合约周涨 2.35%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：在经历了近两个月的筑底后，棕榈油终于在一季度迎来了短暂的多因素共振下的流畅上涨窗 口。本轮上涨始于宏观资金关注商品周期轮动、MPOB 利空落地后入场，B50 年内悲观情绪充分消化、远期 需求逻辑与产量缠绕无法即时交易，马来高频产量及出口数据暗示去库进程良好、盘面重回逢 ...

目录 【粕类周报】供应压力好转 盘面阶段上涨 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 期权：看跌海鸥期权（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 2 GALAXY FUTURES 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅上涨表现，主要因前期利空因素体现比较充分后开始呈现小幅上涨表现，近期美豆上涨主要受到几方面因素影响，首先，美 豆油有所上涨，前期在生柴政策持续缺乏具体消息的情况下，美豆油走势以相对偏下行为主，虽然近期公布的生柴政策并未出现利多，但一定程度 对于整体市场产生带动。受此影响美豆也呈现偏强运行。整体来看，当前美豆市场需求表现比较一般，整体压榨方面支撑力度有限，出口新增幅度 同样比较有限。南美市场近期同样表现出一定利多，一方面巴西降 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 1 月 26 日 供减需增 棕榈油震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：产量和出口，生柴政策 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨103收于4174林吉特/吨，涨幅 2.53%；棕榈油05合约涨236收于8910元/吨，涨幅 2.72%；豆油05合约涨78收于8094元/吨，涨幅0.97%； 菜油05合约跌72收于8991元/吨，跌幅0.79%；CBOT豆油 主连涨1.42收于53.93美分/磅，涨幅2.70%；ICE油菜籽 活跃合约涨14.7收于651.8加元/吨，涨幅2.31%。 ⚫ 油脂板块震荡走强 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 油脂油料：需求支撑 油粕震荡偏强 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 本周油粕价格走高，国际领涨国内，棕榈油强于豆系强于菜籽系。 美豆市场聚焦需求预估。首先压榨数据利好，市场预期生柴政策即将发布，有助于美豆压榨前景。其 次，出口需求预期分歧，变数在于中国和巴西。中国1200万吨大豆采购结束，美国预计中国仍家继续大 量采购，但也有预计中国将放缓采购。巴西大豆丰产，但1月收割进度慢，大量上市需要等到3月，给美 豆短暂喘息机会。处于对需求的乐观预期，美豆价格震荡走高中。国内方面，豆粕价格止跌上涨，现货 领涨期货。大豆进口成本走高，终端积极采购，豆粕终端需求旺盛等均提振市场。豆粕现货去库预期支 撑价格基差走强。市场对3-4月国内豆粕供需缺口大小有分歧，大豆总量充足，但节奏可能造成阶段性 紧张，取决于巴西大豆出口及国内检验速度。预计下周豆粕震荡偏强思路。期权策略，双卖策略。 油脂市场上，印尼决定推迟实施B50生物柴油，美国计划3月初公布生柴决定，生柴政策喜忧参半。市 场预期美国将增加生柴备货，基于政策落地。盘面交易 ...

Market Review - The main palm oil futures contract closed at 8,648 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] Fundamental Summary - The U.S. forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is 19.7 million tons, higher than previous estimates and last year's 19.38 million tons [2] - A Reuters survey predicts that the average palm oil price in 2026 will be 4,125 MYR/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production for 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 2.61% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 is projected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country is 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week, up 1.37% [2] - Year-on-year, the inventory has increased by 264,300 tons, a rise of 54.86% from last year's 481,800 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and increased exports improve supply-demand dynamics, while Indonesia's adjustment of export tax policies boosts demand [4] - The expectation of favorable U.S. biodiesel policies enhances market confidence, with short-term palm oil prices expected to fluctuate slightly stronger amid high inventory and improved supply-demand conditions [4] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures highlights that the U.S. biodiesel policy is gaining traction, which is bullish; however, the MPOB report indicates a slightly higher-than-expected inventory accumulation [4] - January's high-frequency data shows a decline in production and an increase in exports, reducing bearish sentiment for Malaysia [4] - Indonesia's B50 expectations have weakened, with the Energy Minister stating that the implementation of the B50 plan will depend on the price difference between crude oil and CPO [4] - The Indonesian president mentioned the potential confiscation of 4-5 million hectares of plantations this year, and a 2.5% increase in tariffs is expected [4] - The combination of reduced production and strong demand support a short-term bullish outlook, with attention on January's high-frequency data and biodiesel policy developments [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, there are more bearish factors. The upward trend of soybean oil is expected to slow down. For rapeseed oil, the near - term fundamentals are tight but supply has a large recovery expectation. Palm oil has both positive and negative factors, and it can be considered to go long after the market stabilizes. - **Beans and Meal**: The supply of beans in China is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak. Opportunities to short soybean meal and soybeans No.2 can be considered. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, but the domestic market has support. A bullish approach is recommended in the short - term. - **Soybeans No.1**: The valuation is not low and the upward drive is insufficient. It may continue to be weak in the short - term. - **Hogs**: The near - term spot pressure is relieved, and the far - month contract has a premium over the near - term. Investors can consider holding long positions in the far - month. - **Eggs**: Consumption is expected to improve, and supply pressure is relieved to some extent. Aggressive investors can consider going long in some contracts [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybeans No.1 05 | Loosening of traders' price - holding attitude, cautious downstream purchases | 4200 - 4250 | 4400 - 4420 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybeans No.2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans | 3380 - 3400 | 3500 - 3530 | Weak adjustment | Bearish operation | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weakness of adjacent oils, sufficient domestic supply | 7850 - 7880 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Near - term fundamentals are tight but supply may recover | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Sideways adjustment | Short at high prices | | | Palm Oil 05 | Support from US biodiesel policy and Malaysian palm oil exports, but high inventory suppresses prices | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways movement | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, large far - month transactions | 2600 - 2650 | 2780 - 2800 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Bearish sentiment due to Sino - Canadian talks | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish operation | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | | Corn Starch 03 | Follows the cost of corn and has support | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Buy at low prices | [9] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Most varieties are recommended for wait - and - see, while for corn 3 - 5, it is recommended to short at high prices. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For some oil spreads and oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to take corresponding bullish or bearish operations, and some are recommended for wait - and - see [10][11]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The text provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [12]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operation rate data of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut, and peanut oil [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operation rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [18]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and some key market data such as production cost, profit, and slaughter data [18][19][20][21]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which help to track the market fundamentals of different varieties [22][31][47]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, and corn [98][99]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities and position volumes of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [103][104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The supply outlook is neutral to bearish. Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but high inventory and a lower export reference price have increased palm oil exports. The full - scale auction of imported soybeans on January 13th, with expected delivery in March, has alleviated the short - term soybean shortage. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed will drop significantly before March 1st, and Australian rapeseed is also expected to enter commercial crushing [3]. - Demand: The demand outlook is neutral. Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has not yet picked up, and the news of Indonesia delaying B50 is bearish for palm oil's far - month prices. The overall US biodiesel quota is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, with a more favorable impact on Canadian rapeseed products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a record high since 2019 in December at 3.05 million tons, but the overall situation is not as pessimistic as previously estimated. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy outlook is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn could trigger a rebound in oil prices. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for early March, and Indonesia's B50 may be postponed [3]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for palm oil, go long on soybean oil, and short rapeseed oil on rallies. Palm oil may reach its low point in the first quarter, soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, and rapeseed oil is expected to be bearish before the US biodiesel policy is finalized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Multiple factors contribute to an increase in international palm oil supply, and the short - term shortage of soybeans is alleviated. The reduction in Canadian rapeseed import costs may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills [3]. - Demand: Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has limited impact on oil digestion, and the B50 delay and US biodiesel policy have different impacts on various oil products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory varies between Malaysia and Indonesia, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a de - stocking trend [3]. - Macro and Policy: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are important factors affecting oil prices [3]. - Investment View: Different investment strategies are proposed for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil based on their respective fundamentals [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading involves going long on soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil, while arbitrage strategies include going long on Y and short on OI, P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads and differences, including P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 spreads [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies in Southeast Asia over different time periods are provided [19][21][23]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [31][35][36]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Similar data on Malaysia's palm oil are shown [37][42]. - India's Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread: Information on India's imports of different oils and the international bean - palm spread is provided [43][48]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit are presented [49][51][53]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the progress of soybean planting and harvesting, are provided [60][63][69]. - US and Brazilian Export Situation: Data on the export volumes of the US and Brazil are presented [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Information on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [90]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Data on the export of rapeseed from different origins, import profit, and domestic arrival volume are presented [91][93]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Information on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月18日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约上涨，主要在于库存下滑及美国生柴政 策预期向好。加拿大总理访华，市场预期中加贸易关系或有缓和迹 象，印尼维持B4 ...