Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and oil market is in a state of consolidation, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. The short - term market will continue to play around Sino - US trade progress and inventory changes, with soybean and oil futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile". The reference view is also "weak and volatile" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is in a consolidation phase with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. US soybean futures prices are oscillating around 1100 cents, and the market is focusing on the details of a possible 12 million - ton soybean purchase agreement between China and the US. The domestic spot market has significant pressure, with soybean meal inventory rising to 1.145 million tons and contract volume dropping by 10.31%, indicating weak demand. Caught between high costs and weak reality, oil mills are accumulating inventory, and feed enterprises mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "strong and volatile". The reference view is also "strong and volatile" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is showing a significant differentiation pattern. The Malaysian palm oil market has declined for four consecutive days, mainly due to a 16.4% year - on - year decline in Malaysia's exports from November 1 - 25, which has intensified market concerns about the weakening supply - demand situation. Domestic palm oil inventory has increased by 35,100 tons to 591,600 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Recently, the trend of palm oil is closely linked to the international oil and fat sector. After a continuous decline, the palm oil market may fluctuate strongly due to the rebound of US soybean oil futures prices [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "strong and volatile". The reference view is "strong and volatile" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-25 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 40 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9818 | 2431 | -15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the current decline in palm oil prices depends on four factors: whether the October MPOB data meets market expectations, the improvement of India's palm oil procurement, the production prospects in the producing areas from November to December, and the possibility of the implementation of biofuel policies in Indonesia and the United States [3] - The logic supporting the medium - to long - term rise of palm oil still exists, but short - term supply pressure is prominent. The upside space for the 01 contract is limited, while the 05 contract may present long - position opportunities and P2601 - P2605 reverse spread opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 10 - Month Palm Oil Price Decline Review 1.1 The Beginning of the Current Decline: Unexpected Inventory Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil in September - After the double - festival holiday in October, the palm oil price showed a strong rebound trend, but the MPOB September report on October 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory reached 2360000 tons, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a 21 - month high [2][13] - In terms of production, the decline in production in the Malay Peninsula was offset by the increase in production in Sabah and Sarawak. In terms of exports, affected by the export tax adjustment in Indonesia and Argentina, and the substitution of soybean oil, Malaysia's overall export situation was not ideal. In terms of apparent demand, it is speculated that the large - scale inventory accumulation may be due to increased smuggling from Indonesia to Malaysia [14][15] 1.2 The Core of the Current Decline: Weaker - than - expected Reality and the Weakening of Strong Future Expectations - The continuous negative data of Malaysian palm oil and the lack of confidence in future strong expectations accelerated the decline. The MPOA's forecast of a more than 10% increase in production from October 1 - 20 far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in export data further increased the inventory pressure [18][22] - Indonesian data and policies also exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market. Although the review of illegal plantations in Indonesia may affect future production, the current production data has not shown a negative impact. The market is also divided on the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy [25][27] Palm Oil Price Outlook for the Future: Rebound Imminent or Not Yet at the Bottom? Short - Term Outlook - Key factors include the difference between the MPOB data and market expectations and whether November data shows an increasing production trend. If the data meets expectations, prices may stop falling and stabilize; if it is better than expected, there may be a limited rebound; if it is worse than expected, prices may continue to fall [32] - In terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil in November will decline slightly following normal seasonal changes. In terms of demand, India and Pakistan's restocking demand and Indonesia's B40 implementation progress need to be focused on [32][38][41] Long - Term Outlook - The core drivers are Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biofuel policy. If Indonesia's B50 policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, the increase in palm oil demand is expected to be 200000 - 300000 tons. Whether the upside space can be opened depends on the balance between production and biofuel demand [46][50] Investment Strategies and Suggestions - Short - term: Pay attention to the MPOB report and November high - frequency data. After the bearish sentiment in the market subsides, focus on the opportunity of a small - scale rebound, but the space is expected to be limited. If the data is more bearish than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract, with a support level of 8200 yuan [51] - Medium - to long - term: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas, restocking in the consuming areas, and biofuel policies of relevant countries. Consider long - position opportunities for the 05 contract during the Ramadan trading period from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of next year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybean meal is to wait and see due to fluctuating trade sentiment, and for soybean No. 1 is to expect a sideways movement [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, CBOT soybean futures closed lower as Chinese demand was limited, dampening optimism about new demand after the trade truce. The slow progress of Chinese purchases and the lack of details in the soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai increased market caution. Chinese buyers may be concerned about profit margins and supply. Currently, US soybean FOB quotes are slightly higher than Brazilian ones, and in February 2026, Brazilian soybeans will be nearly $1 per bushel cheaper. Traders are also watching the upcoming November USDA supply - demand report. In the long run, Citigroup believes China will resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans, which may push prices up to $11.50 per bushel in the next three months and $12.50 in the next 12 months. New biofuel policies are also expected to support prices [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 had a day - session closing price of 4149 yuan/ton (+69, +1.69%), and a night - session closing price of 4146 yuan/ton (+8, +0.19%); DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 3068 yuan/ton (+29, +0.95%) and a night - session closing price of 3058 yuan/ton (-12, -0.39%); CBOT soybean 01 was at 1108 cents per bushel (-26.5, -2.34%); CBOT soybean meal 12 was at $312.8 per short ton (-12.1, -3.72%) [2] - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis for soybean meal was M2601 + 40, down 10 from the previous day. Different regions and time periods had various basis levels, such as in Shandong, 12 - 1 months were at 3010 - 3120 yuan/ton, and different mills in different regions had their own basis adjustments [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.15 million tons per day (down from 10.2 million tons the previous trading day), and the inventory was 105.93 million tons per week (up from 100.44 million tons the previous week) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for soybean meal and soybean No. 1 was 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and the missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - The expected net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending October 16, 2025/26 is 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, with similar ranges for corn, wheat, bean meal, and soybean oil [1] - If Indonesia upgrades from B40 to B50, it will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil, reducing its export supply significantly as it currently exports 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 41% decrease [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may weaken its crushing capacity and limit soybean oil exports [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, and the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information. The missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - Surveys show expected net increases in US export sales for the week ending October 16: soybeans 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, corn 80.0 - 200.0 million tons, wheat 35.0 - 65.0 million tons, bean meal 15.0 - 45.0 million tons, and soybean oil 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] MPOC Forecast - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, it will need an additional 3 million tons of palm oil for blending, reducing its export supply to 22 million tons or less from the current 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may limit its soybean oil exports in the coming months [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 17 - 23, 2025 are provided, including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [11]

Financial Performance - Total Net Sales increased to $1564 million in Q3 2025, a 10% increase compared to $14219 million in Q3 2024[4] - Gross Margin increased to $387 million in Q3 2025, a 234% increase compared to $3136 million in Q3 2024[4] - Net Income increased to $194 million in Q3 2025, a 148% increase compared to $169 million in Q3 2024[4] - EPS Diluted increased to $012 in Q3 2025, a 91% increase compared to $011 in Q3 2024[4] - Combined Adjusted EBITDA increased to $2449 million in Q3 2025, a 35% increase compared to $2367 million in Q3 2024[4] Segment Performance - Feed segment Adjusted EBITDA increased to $174 million in Q3 2025, a 316% increase compared to $1322 million in Q3 2024[4] - Food segment Adjusted EBITDA increased to $716 million in Q3 2025, a 256% increase compared to $57 million in Q3 2024[4] - Fuel segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $216 million in Q3 2025, a 638% decrease compared to $597 million in Q3 2024[4] Balance Sheet - Cash and cash equivalents were $91 million as of September 27, 2025[5] - Total debt was $4104 billion as of September 27, 2025[5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][6][7]. - The market for these commodities is affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, and inventories [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on Sino - US negotiations. The domestic market is hesitant to buy forward - delivery soybeans due to uncertain import costs. The current soybean meal market has a pattern of both weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the combined effect of loose supply and weak demand. Short - term futures prices will continue to oscillate [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Tightening supply in Indonesia and improved export data in the first half of October support the price of Malaysian palm oil. The expected slowdown in Indian purchases and high domestic inventories in Malaysia suppress market sentiment. In China, position adjustments by funds and weekly increases in palm oil inventories also put pressure on prices. The short - term market oscillation intensifies, and futures prices are mainly oscillating weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal lacks bullish drivers due to US soybean harvest, Sino - US negotiation voices, and improved rainfall in Brazil; rapeseed meal has mixed factors and follows the trend of soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term volatile**: Palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil has potential future demand increase but is pressured by inventory accumulation; soybean oil follows the palm oil market [1]. - **High - level volatile**: Rapeseed oil, with low mill operation rate, consumption season, and speculation on biodiesel in the palm oil market [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube. Cotton has supply pressure and weak demand; jujube has post - harvest pressure and potential weather - related price fluctuations [1]. - **Wide - range volatile**: Live pigs, with strong short - term supply pressure and uncertain demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2902 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 3020.57 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons [2][3]. - **Market Situation**: US old - crop soybean inventory was lower than expected, and Brazilian soybean planting rate was 8.2% as of Oct 4, 2025. It is in weak consolidation due to lack of bullish drivers [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2348 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 2514.74 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons [5][6]. - **Market Situation**: International market has expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic market is in de - stocking but in seasonal demand off - season, and it follows the soybean meal trend [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price was 9330 yuan/ton, national average price was 9370 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Indonesia's bio - diesel policy is positive for future demand, but Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation in September pressured prices, and it is in high - level volatility [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14755 yuan/ton. Commercial inventory increased to 115.54 million tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, supply pressure is increasing as new cotton harvests in major countries. Domestically, new cotton harvest is advancing, prices are weak, and demand is sluggish [11][12][13]. Jujube - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, some spot prices remained stable. 36 sample enterprises' inventory was 9167 tons [14][15]. - **Market Situation**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure considering inventory. There may be price fluctuations before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts increased, national average spot price was 11270 yuan/ton. National sample enterprises' inventory increased to 3839.01 million tons [16]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply pressure is strong as October planned出栏量 increases. Long - term, the number of breeding sows is decreasing. Demand is uncertain after the holiday [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean imports and prices, emphasizing the need for a bottom-line mindset in case no agreement is reached, which could lead to increased U.S. soybean inventories and lower prices [4]. Pathways Analysis - **Pathway 1: Accelerating Domestic Soybean Crushing** The U.S. soybean crushing capacity is projected to reach 2.6-2.65 billion bushels by the end of 2025, with a potential increase to 2.7-2.75 billion bushels by the end of 2026. This could lead to a reduction in baseline inventories from 500 million bushels to approximately 350 million bushels, providing support for CBOT soybean prices [5][6]. - **Pathway 2: External Inventory Replacement** Brazil's domestic biodiesel policies may increase local crushing, but the necessity to import U.S. soybeans is low due to ample South American supply. This pathway is considered more theoretical with limited practical implementation [7]. - **Pathway 3: USDA Production Adjustments** Historical data suggests that USDA's adjustments to yield estimates can significantly impact market perceptions. A potential reduction in yield from 53.1 bushels per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre could alleviate inventory pressures, driving CBOT soybean prices upward. However, this is contingent on actual weather conditions and data accuracy [8][9]. Impact on Domestic Soymeal - **Pathways 1 & 2: Increased Global Soymeal Supply** If biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. are implemented, global soybean crushing will increase, leading to higher soymeal inventories and downward pressure on prices. The impact on domestic soymeal prices will depend on whether imports from South America are allowed [9][10]. - **Pathway 3: Temporary Price Surge** A significant downward adjustment in USDA's yield estimates could temporarily elevate global soybean prices, but the sustainability of this increase will depend on the realization of Pathways 1 and 2 [10][11]. Conclusion - The article concludes that without U.S. soybean purchases, the resolution of the soybean market largely depends on increasing domestic crushing, external inventory replacement, and potential USDA yield adjustments. Pathway 3 may provide immediate price support, while Pathway 2 is less likely to materialize. The domestic soymeal market's response will hinge on import policies and global supply dynamics [11].