Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver and other dollar-denominated precious metals are losing ground due to a strengthening dollar, influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that she would not support another rate cut without clearer evidence of slowing inflation, emphasizing concerns over stagnation and deflation more than worries about a weak labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing the safe-haven demand for silver, with upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, although the agenda remains unclear [2] Group 2 - The silver futures market is currently trading above 19,596, with a recent high of 24,570 and a low of 18,500, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The domestic sentiment around silver is warming, with the silver price showing signs of stabilization and potential rebound, as long as it remains above 24,500 [3] - The domestic silver premium remains at 3,300 yuan per kilogram, and the main contract is expected to operate within the range of 22,000 to 24,500 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

Core Insights - The US dollar has strengthened significantly this week, particularly impacting currencies sensitive to commodity prices, following a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [4] - The market's reaction to the volatility in precious metals reflects a heightened demand for safe-haven currencies and rapid shifts in investor sentiment [4] - The recent rebound of the dollar was unexpected for some investors, as short positions on the dollar had dominated the market last month [4] Group 1 - The dollar's rise is linked to a notable drop in gold, which experienced its largest single-day decline in over a decade, and silver, which saw an intraday drop of 16% [4] - The strengthening of the dollar is further supported by technical factors and capital flows, with increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [5] - The volatility in precious metals and currency markets has surpassed that of the stock market, indicating ongoing impacts from risk aversion and policy uncertainty [5] Group 2 - The current scenario of a strong dollar and pressured precious metals suggests a structural adjustment in global financial markets, with policy news and commodity price changes continuing to dictate market dynamics [5] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in their strategies to navigate potential volatility, while closely monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes and supply-demand dynamics in the commodity markets [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.279%, while the 2-year yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, closed at 3.586% [1][6] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold reaching an intraday low of $4402.93 before rebounding, ultimately closing down 4.59% at $4660.91 per ounce [1][6] - Silver also saw a decline, hitting an intraday low of $72.28 and closing down 6.97% at $79.23 per ounce [1][6] Group 2: Commodity Price Movements - WTI crude oil opened lower and fell significantly, closing down 5.17% at $62.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped 4.9% to $66.21 per barrel [1][6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements, contributing to the sell-off in gold and silver following the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair [1][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold market opened at $4779.2 per ounce, reached a high of $4886, and then fell to a low of $4398.7, closing at $4659.9, indicating potential for a breakout from the current range [2][8] - The crude oil market opened at $64.05, reached a low of $61.45, and closed at $62.39, suggesting a consolidation phase with potential for further movement [3][8] - The Nasdaq index opened at $25405.85, hit a low of $25066.87, and closed at $25759.03, indicating an upward trend with potential for further gains [4][9]

Group 1 - The copper price has been pressured by profit-taking and speculative selling, with LME copper closing down 1.3% at $12,900 per ton, a decrease of $171, and trading volume down by 2,065 contracts [1] - The Shanghai copper futures market also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 100,820 yuan per ton, down 1.01% [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, reflecting a 0.17% decline [1] Group 2 - The significant drop in copper prices on February 2 was primarily due to market reactions to the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about liquidity tightening [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI in the U.S. rebounded to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [2] - In China, the manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, boosting market confidence and driving a rebound in copper prices [2] Group 3 - Supply shortages are expected to persist due to overseas mine shutdowns, while domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to decline, indicating tight supply conditions [3] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises, leading to increased social inventory [3] - The market is currently dominated by a bearish sentiment, with concerns over demand and inventory accumulation exerting downward pressure on copper prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp decline in precious metals has spread panic to the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant price drops observed in various contracts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Overnight, Shanghai tin prices continued to plummet, with initial trading today showing a slight reduction in losses, yet the main contract still fell over 9% [1] - Shanghai nickel exhibited weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping more than 2% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, known for his hawkish policy stance, has raised investor concerns regarding tightening monetary policy and a strengthening dollar [1] - This shift in sentiment has rapidly cooled risk appetite, putting pressure on the entire non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - A significant number of long positions accumulated previously were liquidated, creating a stampede effect that exacerbated market liquidity issues and led to a sharp price decline [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term view of a bullish trend for platinum and palladium, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of prices trending upwards in a volatile manner [2][3][4] Core View - The precious metals market sentiment was pressured, and prices significantly corrected due to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the Fed Chair and CME's increase in margin standards. As of February 2, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 552.15 yuan/gram, a decline of 16.0%, and the GFEX palladium main contract was 413.7 yuan/gram, also a 16.0% decline [1] - For platinum, although short - term factors pressure the price, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider low - buying opportunities, and also pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens. The supply in South Africa has risks, and the demand in various fields is expanding [2] - For palladium, the short - term price corrected due to market sentiment cooling, and the long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but the short - term price bottom is stable. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Movement**: The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 552.15 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Kevin Warsh's nomination and CME's margin increase pressured the price. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. South Africa has supply risks, and demand in various fields is expanding [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term investors should wait and see. After the price stabilizes, consider low - buying. Also, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens [2] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [3] Palladium - **Price Movement**: The GFEX palladium main contract closed at 413.7 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term market sentiment decline led to price correction. Long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but short - term price bottom is stable due to factors like tight spot supply [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [4] Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% on February 2, 2026 [51] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2709.50, with a daily decline of 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of 4.88%, a 1 - month increase of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.88% [53]

格隆汇2月2日｜周一商品市场全面下滑，黄金、白银、原油和工业金属领跌。CBA商品策略师Vivek Dhar表示："市场决定在抛售美股的同时抛售贵金属，这表明投资者认为沃什更具鹰派色彩。此外，美 元走强也给贵金属及包括原油和基数金属在内的其他大宗商品带来了压力。"不过，他仍坚持第四季度 金价达到6000美元的预测。亚洲股市跟随美股期货大幅走低，贵金属市场的混乱抛售为这个充斥着公司 财报、央行会议和经济数据的周初增添了紧张气氛。 Dhar表示："关键问题在于这标志着商品价格结构 性下跌的开始，还是仅仅是一次回调。我们认为这是一次调整和买入机会，而非基本面的转变。" MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 格隆汇2月2日｜周一商品市场全面下滑，黄金、白银、原油和工业金属领跌。CBA商品策略师Vivek Dhar表示："市场决定在抛售美股的同时抛售贵金属，这表明投资者认为沃什更具鹰派色彩。此外，美 元走强也给贵金属及包括原油和基数金属在内的其他大宗商品带来了压力。"不过，他仍坚持第四季度 金价达到6000美元的预测。亚洲股市跟随美股期货大幅走低，贵金属市场的混乱抛售为这个充斥着 ...

摘要今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1029元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1058.69元/ 克，跌幅4.04%，最高触及1103.26元/克，最低下探1029.63元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看空走 势。 今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1029元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1058.69元/克，跌 幅4.04%，最高触及1103.26元/克，最低下探1029.63元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看空走势。 【要闻速递】 此次停摆始于上周六上午，因国会未在1月30日截止日前通过支出法案并由总统特朗普签署。消息称停 摆将快速落幕，料提振美元，同时令以美元计价的黄金承压。周一亚市，美元指数于97.10附近窄幅整 理，前一交易日涨逾1%；现货黄金震荡走低，现交投于4700美元/盎司附近，日内跌约3%，前一交易日 跌幅近10%。分析认为，停摆危机若迅速解决，将削弱黄金短期避险需求，叠加美元走强，或进一步加 大其回调压力。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金(人民币账户)于2026年2月2日10:55报1063.45元/克，日内暴跌10.12%，刷新近五年单日最大 跌幅，价格失守1180元 ...

站在神坛上的金银，一日之间被抛入深谷，交易员的止损指令在凌晨的纽约市场上如瀑布般倾泻而下。 北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大单日跌幅；黄金价格下跌一度超过12%，遭遇40年来最严重的单日下跌。 截至收盘，现货黄金下跌9.25%，报收4884.36美元/盎司；现货白银下跌26.42%，报85.259美元/盎司。 贵金属市场弥漫着恐慌情绪，在美联储即将换届、美元突然走强和投资者获利了结的多重压力下，一度被视为避险天堂的黄金白银上演了一场惊天逆转。 市场惊魂 这场被市场称为"深夜血洗"的暴跌来得突然而猛烈。黄金与白银价格双双下挫，创下历史性纪录。 白银市场遭受的打击尤为惨重，盘中一度跌至74.28美元/盎司，单日跌幅刷新历史纪录。 黄金市场同样哀鸿遍野。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4884.36美元/盎司关口，现货黄金最低触及4682美元/盎司。 数据风暴 从具体数据来看，这场贵金属市场的暴跌在数字上呈现出惊人的破坏力。 现货黄金收盘时价格定格在4884.36美元/盎司，较前一交易日下跌9.25%。现货白银收盘价为85.259美元/盎司，暴跌26.42%。 国内期货市场同样受到波及，沪金收跌 ...