申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251114- 20251121) 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to experience a significant drop, referred to as "Black Monday," providing relief to consumers after a recent price increase [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent strength of the US dollar has been a major factor influencing the oil market, leading to a decrease in demand for oil priced in non-dollar currencies [3][7]. - A month ago, the market anticipated a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, but this probability has plummeted to 35%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][7]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - The upcoming adjustment in domestic fuel prices is projected to result in a decrease of approximately 50 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.04-0.05 yuan per liter at gas stations [5][6]. - The anticipated price drop will bring 92-octane gasoline back to the 6 yuan range and 95-octane gasoline below 7.4 yuan per liter [6]. Group 3: Regional Price Overview - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.94, 95 gasoline at 7.39, 98 gasoline at 8.89, and diesel at 6.62 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.35, 98 gasoline at 9.25, and diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.96, 95 gasoline at 7.54, 98 gasoline at 9.54, and diesel at 6.59 [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the oil price decline remains uncertain, with questions surrounding the continued strength of the dollar and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy that could impact the market [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices experienced their first weekly decline of the month, with a drop of 0.46% from November 17 to 23, 2025, despite reaching a weekly high of $4,133 due to the strengthening of the US dollar and cooling interest rate cut expectations [1] Group 2 - As of the latest update, the London spot gold price is reported at $4,065 per ounce, while US gold stands at $4,102 per ounce, and domestic real-time gold prices are at 928 yuan per gram. Brand gold jewelry prices remain stable, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang at 1,295 yuan per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao at 1,305 yuan per gram, while the gold recycling price is at 915 yuan per gram [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that gold prices need to stabilize above $4,200 to potentially challenge the October high, while a drop below $4,146 could signal the end of the current rebound. Investors looking to buy or liquidate should closely monitor these key price levels [5]

Core Insights - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a seven-month low, which has led to rising domestic oil prices and the highest import price increase in nine months [1][2] Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The exchange rate of the won against the dollar opened at 1472.4 won per dollar, marking a 3.43% decline over the past month [1] - Factors contributing to the depreciation include reduced likelihood of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and significant foreign capital outflows from the South Korean stock market, with nearly 10 trillion won sold by foreign investors in the past month [1] Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - The average price of gasoline in Seoul has surpassed 1800 won per liter, reaching 1805.22 won, which is approximately 8.7 yuan, marking a significant increase [2] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to both the rebound in international oil product prices and the depreciation of the won, which has increased the import price of crude oil [2] Group 3: Consumer Price Index - The Bank of Korea reported a 1.9% increase in the import price index for October, the largest monthly increase since January, indicating rising inflationary pressures [2] - According to the Korea Development Institute, a 1% drop in the won's value against the dollar results in a 0.04 percentage point increase in consumer prices, suggesting that inflation may rise further in the coming months [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high valuation pressure on US tech stocks leading to market sell-offs, which has spread to Asian and European markets, gold has seen a mild rebound. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has limited the upside for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks has influenced global markets, pushing gold prices to experience a mild rebound [1]. - The Federal Reserve's signals against rate cuts have led to a reduction in market bets for a December rate cut, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance at $4,110, retreated to $4,042, and then fluctuated around $4,085 before stabilizing [3]. - The price of gold fluctuated within a range, with a low of $4,038 and a closing price around $4,087, indicating a range-bound trading pattern [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The release of the US non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an increase in job numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth [3]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut slightly increased to 35%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate approached 65% [3].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have declined due to a strong dollar and concerns over weak demand, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 22% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, LME three-month copper fell by $14, or 0.13%, closing at $10,738.50 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $13 (0.46%) and three-month zinc up by $35 (1.17%), while three-month lead fell by $4.50 (0.22%) [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Concerns over weak demand persist, highlighted by a 13.62% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year decline in China's refined copper imports for October 2025 [5]. - Cochilco has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to historical highs due to weak production, now expecting an average price of $4.45 per pound for 2025 and $4.55 per pound for 2026 [5].

黄金昨天坐楼梯爬升后，突发跳水，直接坐上了过山车。直线跳水后，今天迎来二度闪跌，整体跌超90 美金，大起大落，持续高位调整，争夺4100关口。 昨天4129附近，再次空单获利。 今天的走势 下方回落，看向4040，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若持续回调，下穿4040，继续看向4000的关口的支撑。 昨天高台跳水，闪崩跌穿4100后。 今天反弹不延续，又是二度跳水。 直接跌至4040，迎来快涨调整。 快涨快跌，调整为主。 上方可看4100的关口，再上破，看向4142的阻力。 当然了，不破4100，继续承压调整。 黄金9月刷新高后，上演单边抛物线涨势，10月加速刷历史新高后。上演疯狂跳水过山车。到本月横盘 后，多头再度爆发，二度过山车跳水，走出两座大山，双山压制，重回调整区域，上方可调整空间，看 向4160的区域。下方再次回调，可看向4000的关口。 操作方面，黄金接连跳水，继续看承压调整，关注4142和4100做空的机会。此外，黄金下方面临关键支 撑区域，关注4040和4000做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美失业金爆雷，一个大的风险悄悄临近，美政府停摆1个月多月，美失业金多数大幅上修，裁 员数据剧增， ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently under pressure due to a stronger dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but long-term trends such as global central bank gold purchases and potential impacts of U.S. debt issues on dollar credibility continue to support precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $51.07 per ounce [1]. - The platinum market is expected to experience a significant shortage for the third consecutive year, with a projected shortfall of 22 tons, revised down by 5 tons from previous estimates [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some suggesting that maintaining rates through 2025 may be appropriate, while others indicated that another rate cut in December could be likely if economic performance aligns with expectations [1]. Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not release the October employment report, indicating that the non-farm employment data will be included in the November report instead [1].

Group 1 - Gold (XAU/USD) shows initial signs of strength but quickly loses momentum as market sentiment shifts, influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - The expectation for immediate interest rate cuts has diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 50%, putting pressure on gold prices [2][3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by adjustments in interest rate expectations, increases the purchasing cost of gold for international buyers, adding further pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key support level around $4000 has become crucial, coinciding with the lower boundary of an expanding wedge pattern, indicating technical buying interest remains [6] - If the wedge pattern holds, gold may consolidate in this area before attempting another upward move, with mid-term resistance at approximately $4150 [6] - The interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty and technical pressures keeps gold in a state of volatility, with future movements dependent on upcoming data and policy signals [6]

Core Insights - On November 13, 2025, global financial markets focused on precious metals, with international spot gold prices experiencing notable fluctuations, reaching $4,129.2 per ounce [1] - The domestic gold market also showed complex dynamics, with real-time prices providing investors with immediate market references [2] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The domestic gold price was reported at 946.3 RMB per gram, while silver, platinum, and palladium prices were 11.6 RMB, 365.7 RMB, and 332.6 RMB per gram respectively [2] - Various jewelry brands offered different retail prices for gold, with notable examples including Chow Tai Fook at 1,313 RMB per gram for gold jewelry and 642 RMB for platinum [5] Gold Price Trends - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 942.19 RMB per gram, down 4.31 RMB from the previous trading day, reflecting a decline of 0.455% [6] - The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a high of 949.22 RMB and a low of 938.16 RMB [6] Financial Institutions' Gold Bar Pricing - Different financial institutions offered varying prices for their gold bars, with prices ranging from 936.1 RMB to 976 RMB per gram [7] - For instance, the Agricultural Bank's gold bar was priced at 945.2 RMB per gram, while the higher-priced option from Qianjiaxin was 1,072 RMB per gram [7] Investment Logic Behind Gold Price Movements - Recent adjustments in international gold prices followed a significant prior increase, with London spot gold prices dipping below $4,000 per ounce [8] - Factors influencing this trend included a strengthening dollar, high interest rates, and a shift in global investor risk appetite [8][9] Dollar and Interest Rate Impact - A strong dollar typically pressures gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; recent Federal Reserve actions have contributed to a stronger dollar [9] - High yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, currently above 4.1%, have led investors to reassess the opportunity cost of holding gold [9] Evolving Investor Sentiment - The allure of gold as a safe-haven asset has diminished as geopolitical and financial risks have eased, prompting a shift of funds towards equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies [10] - The adjustment in gold prices reflects a rebalancing of market investment logic rather than panic selling or a decline in gold's intrinsic value [10]