Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to September/December, and the strengthening of the US dollar may limit the upward space for non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, which may lead to adjustments in aluminum prices. However, due to policy - driven elimination of backward alumina production capacity, alumina prices may still have room to rise [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen has started production, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices have remained flat or declined, which may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and transformation projects are in progress, and overseas projects such as Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and SPIC's Guinean project may increase overseas alumina production in July [2]. - **Cost and price**: The average daily full production cost of domestic alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton. Due to the possible decline in Guinean bauxite prices and policy - driven elimination of backward capacity, alumina prices may still rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 2,900 - 3,000 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,500 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has decreased compared to last week. The continuous accumulation of alumina inventory in Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants has led to a loose supply expectation [11][15]. - **Basis and spread**: The alumina basis and monthly spread are positive but at low levels. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in July due to capacity transfers and new project startups. Import volume may also increase due to production changes in overseas plants [3][62]. - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton. In the off - season, smelting profits remain high, but downstream demand is weakening, and aluminum prices may face adjustment pressure. It is recommended that investors take a callback approach in the short term, paying attention to support and resistance levels for SHFE and LME aluminum contracts [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased compared to last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has also increased [43][48]. - **Basis and spread**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, while the monthly spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) monthly spread is negative and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term, light - position, high - selling arbitrage opportunities for SHFE aluminum basis and spreads, and temporarily wait and see for LME aluminum monthly spread arbitrage opportunities [38][41]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy may decrease [6][82]. - **Cost and price**: The daily full production cost of domestic primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profits. Due to production losses and increasing inventory, casting aluminum alloy prices may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try to go short on the main contract at high levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 19,500 - 19,700 and resistance levels around 19,900 - 20,000 [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum alloy has increased, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [6][88]. Downstream Processing Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week, affected by the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [94][96].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by optimistic expectations regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices have declined from a high of $3345 to around $3280, with significant support at the $3280 level, which has not yet been breached [1][3]. - The recent drop from $3345 to $3320 represents a $25 decrease, and a similar drop from $3310 to $3285 has occurred, indicating a consistent downward movement [3]. - The current price action suggests a potential for a rebound, with a focus on the support level between $3275 and $3280 [1][3]. Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying gold on dips around $3287-$3282 with a stop loss at $3275 and a target of $3310-$3320 [4]. - Additionally, selling gold on rebounds around $3315-$3320 is advised, with a stop loss at $3328 and a target of $3300-$3290 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]

Group 1 - The strong US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, reaching a near one-week low as investors await trade details before the tariff deadline [1] - Recent strong US economic data, including robust job growth in June, has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar and causing a slight pullback in gold prices [1] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish, although caution is advised for potential significant corrections in the near term [1] Group 2 - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, market sentiment has cooled as negotiations in the Middle East resume, contributing to uncertainty in the market [3] - Gold prices opened lower and experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of 3295, with an intraday decline of nearly 50 USD, indicating a deep pullback [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified between 3292-3288, while resistance is seen at 3315-3322, suggesting potential short-term trading strategies [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained low at 233,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, which boosts the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - This data has strengthened the U.S. dollar and suppressed gold prices, while also reducing market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could rise to levels seen on April 2, affecting around 100 countries with at least 10% reciprocal tariffs [1] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House indicates a trend towards expansionary fiscal policy, potentially supporting the economy and lowering safe-haven demand [1] - The Atlanta Fed President indicated that the U.S. economy may experience prolonged high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for sustained high interest rates, which increases the holding cost of gold [1] - Discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, along with plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, have eased geopolitical risks, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has shown a bearish trend after retreating from its high, currently facing pressure from the non-farm data, trading below the 20 and 60-period moving averages [4] - The price is under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, with potential further resistance from the upper Bollinger Band as time progresses [4] - The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term pullback in gold prices [4] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended around 3338.2, with a stop loss at 3345.0 and targets set at 3311.5 to 3283.5 [5] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is currently in a weekly oscillation phase, with the recent non-farm data exerting downward pressure on bullish momentum [8] - The price is facing strong resistance near the upper boundary of the weekly oscillation and the previous high of 37.06, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement [8] - The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, suggesting weakness in the market [8] Trading Strategy for Silver - A short position is suggested around 36.97, with a stop loss at 37.20 and targets set at 36.49 to 36.16 [9]

Price Trends - The overall gold price in the domestic market remains above 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices from various brands showing slight fluctuations [1][4] - The highest price is from Liufu Gold at 1005 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1][3] Brand Price Summary - Liufu Gold: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Dafu: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Liufu: 985 yuan/gram (up 7 yuan) [1] - Lao Miao: 999 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [1] - Lao Fengxiang: 1003 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [3] - Chao Hongji: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Shengsheng: 1004 yuan/gram (down 6 yuan) [3] - Cai Bai: 978 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Shanghai China Gold: 969 yuan/gram (no change) [3] International Market Influence - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [6] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3342.15 USD/ounce, reflecting a 0.48% increase [6] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of U.S. tariff announcements, which could have both short-term negative and long-term positive effects on gold [6]

High Ridge Futures金属交易主任David Meger说："优于预期的就业数据，代表美联储早于目前预期时间 点降息的机率下降。也因此，美元走强，加重了黄金市场的压力。" 今日周五（7月4日)亚盘时段，白银期货沪金上涨，截至发稿报8914元/千克，上涨0.53%，最高触及 8950元/千克，最低下探8877元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国月度非农就业报告显示，6月份新增岗位14.7万个，远好于预期的11万个。此外，6月失业率从4.2% 小幅降至4.1%，好于预期的4.3%；而劳动力参与率从62.4%小幅降至62.3%。此外，6月平均时薪同比增 幅从5月份的3.8%回落至3.7%，但高于预期的3.6%。 此外，美国6月份ISM服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)从5月份的49.9上升至50.8，高于场预期的50.5。 短线来看，当前沪银价格上涨，截至发稿报8914元/千克，上涨0.53%，最高触及8950元/千克，最低下 探8877元/千克。上方阻力位为8976-8986，下方支撑位为8644-8654. Merk Hard Currency Fund驻加州的总裁兼 ...

摘要周五（7月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，最新黄金交投于3330美元关口附近，非农数据的意 外向好，美联储7月降息9月降息概率也下降，美元和美债收益率齐涨，美元走强对黄金市场形成了显著 压力，周四黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线。 强劲的就业数据直接推高了美元和美债收益率。美元指数周四上涨0.34%，报97.12，而两年期美债收益 率攀升9.7个基点至3.789%，十年期美债收益率也上升至4.346%。美元走强使得黄金对海外买家的吸引 力下降，因为以美元计价的黄金变得更加昂贵。 市场对美联储7月降息的预期几乎归零，9月降息25个基点的概率也从92.5%降至67%。这一转变直接导 致了黄金价格的回落，投资者对黄金的避险需求暂时被压制。 【技术面分析】 黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线，本周的节奏整体保持在高位拉锯震荡，并没有持续性的单边， 美元短期强弱不定，也限制了黄金的波动空间，反复探高回落，破高无力，回调又缺少下破力度，关键 的区间未打破，今日周线收官，从周线来看，黄金行情还是震荡收尾的节奏，月线仍在试探摸高上影 线。 日线图上，黄金从一个月低点触底反弹，刷新一周新高后涨势遇阻，保持震荡走势运行。 ...