Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $40.5, or 0.41%, closing at $9,733.0 per ton on August 18, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding key events in the U.S. [1] - The three-month aluminum price decreased by $18.5, or 0.71%, closing at $2,588.5 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines of 0.64% and 0.53% respectively [2][6] - The only metal to see an increase was tin, which rose by $8, or 0.02%, closing at $33,702 per ton, supported by low inventory levels [6] Group 2 - ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey noted that the market is cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, as well as the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting [4] - The U.S. has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, which officially took effect on August 18, impacting various products and potentially affecting metal prices [6] - Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% year-on-year in June, reaching 228,932 tons, indicating a positive trend in copper supply [5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is optimistic, leading to a decline in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with gold trading around $3351.79 per ounce and silver at $37.78 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. labor market data shows an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a weakening labor market, which typically raises demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] - The expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are crucial for gold prices, with a high probability of a rate cut in September, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance at the $3400 level, while silver has seen a pullback after five consecutive days of gains, needing to break above $38.00 to continue its upward trend [4] - The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with ongoing regional conflicts increasing uncertainty in the global economy, which may drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for both gold and silver suggests potential for short-term rebounds, with gold showing signs of trying to gather positive momentum despite recent pressures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly three years, driven by President Trump's new tariffs on numerous trade partners, which have not significantly harmed the economy or raised inflation [1] Economic Impact - Investors believe that the tariffs imposed by Trump have only caused minor damage to the economy, and the overall economic fundamentals remain acceptable, albeit not at their best [1] - The market may face short-term selling pressure, but this is viewed as a temporary retreat as investors wait for more data [1] Federal Reserve Stance - Despite Trump's pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, the Fed has indicated that it is not in a hurry to take action [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is not expected to have a significant impact on the dollar, even if the employment data is weak [1] Future Outlook - Unless extremely poor data emerges before September, it is unlikely that expectations for a rate cut will be reignited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to strengthen, completing a W-bottom structure, raising questions about whether gold will follow suit and decline [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the US dollar is a significant market trend that could impact various asset classes, including gold [1] - The completion of the W-bottom structure indicates a potential bullish trend for the US dollar, which may lead to a bearish outlook for gold [1] - The market is advised to develop trading plans for the upcoming sessions, particularly in relation to gold and the US dollar dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the U.S. economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have led to a significant decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $55.1 to $3,327.9 per ounce, a decrease of 1.63% [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The GDP growth was primarily driven by a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending, while declines in investment and exports partially offset this growth [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% during its July meeting, despite some members voting in favor of a rate cut [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments indicated a robust U.S. economy, with low unemployment and a labor market close to maximum employment, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Analysts expect the Fed's monetary policy stance to be slightly more hawkish than current market expectations [2] Precious Metals Market - Following the decline in gold prices, silver futures for September delivery fell by $1.21 to $37.175 per ounce, a decrease of 3.15% [2]

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk significantly lowered its fiscal year performance guidance, reducing sales growth expectations for 2025 from 13-21% to 8-14% and EBIT profit growth from 16-24% to 10-16% due to lower GLP-1 sales expectations in the U.S. and asset impairment impacts [7][8] - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock price plummeted over 26% in pre-market trading, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $60 billion (approximately 430 billion RMB) within two hours [8] - The company appointed Maqziar Mike Dusseldorp as the new CEO [8] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Dow futures up 0.02%, despite the volatility caused by Novo Nordisk [2] - Nvidia's stock price increased over 1% in pre-market trading, driven by demand rumors, indicating its continued leadership in the U.S. market [2] - The U.S. dollar strengthened, reaching a nearly five-week high, as market participants shifted focus from trade uncertainties to the resilience of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3 - Upcoming events include central bank meetings, earnings reports from major companies like Apple, and key economic data such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation, which are expected to create further market fluctuations [6] - The U.S. government’s tariff policy will face legal scrutiny on July 31, ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger dollar and rising copper inventories in LME Asian warehouses [1] - As of July 17, LME three-month copper fell by 0.32% to $9,604 per ton, retreating from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton earlier in July [1] - Copper previously planned for shipment to the U.S. is being redirected back to the LME system due to a 50% import tariff announced by the U.S. effective August 1 [1] Group 2 - The increase in LME copper inventories alleviated concerns about recent supply shortages, reflected in the widening discount of spot copper contracts compared to three-month forward contracts, which expanded to $64.5 per ton from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [1] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 was reported at 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, up 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Other LME metal prices showed mixed performance, with three-month tin stable at $32,785 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and aluminum experienced declines of 0.26%, 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.43% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

Current Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have been on a downward trend, with the New York Commodity Exchange's August gold futures closing at $3,336.7 per ounce on July 15, down 0.67% for the day [1] - The price was $3,359.1 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a daily decline of 0.15% [3] - As of July 16, the Asian market price hovered around $3,333 per ounce, with short-term support at $3,320 and resistance at $3,370 [4] Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Decline - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 984 and 1,008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram within two days [5] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market, gold prices have fallen to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% from previous highs [5] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has pressured gold prices, with the US June CPI rising 2.7%, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and a temporary reduction in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has shifted market risk appetite towards equities [6] - Technical selling intensified after gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering stop-loss sell orders [7] - Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months, with a reduction of 19 tons in May, indicating a shift in institutional investor positions [8] Future Trends and Divergent Views - Bearish View: The decline in geopolitical premiums and technical breakdowns could lead to deeper corrections if the economy achieves a "soft landing," with Citigroup predicting a target price of $2,500 to $2,700 by 2026 [9] - Cautiously Bullish View: Concerns over the weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by global central banks (244 tons added in Q1 2025) suggest potential upward movement, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [9] - Neutral View: A weak adjustment driven by sentiment in Q3, with potential strength in Q4, with Tokai Futures predicting a range of $2,900 to $3,600 for the year [9] - Key technical levels include support at $3,245, $3,200, and $3,180, with resistance at $3,315 to $3,330 [9] Impact and Recommendations - For consumers, those with wedding needs may consider the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market for lower labor costs, while non-urgent buyers are advised to wait for traditional low-price windows [10] - For investors, it is recommended to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold savings, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of household assets in gold as an inflation hedge [10] - Short-term strategies include light short positions around the $3,315 to $3,330 resistance zone, with strict stop-loss measures [10] Recovery and Liquidation - The recent recovery price is approximately 748 yuan per gram as of July 16, providing an opportunity for holders of idle gold jewelry to liquidate during price rebounds [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to September/December, and the strengthening of the US dollar may limit the upward space for non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, which may lead to adjustments in aluminum prices. However, due to policy - driven elimination of backward alumina production capacity, alumina prices may still have room to rise [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen has started production, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices have remained flat or declined, which may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and transformation projects are in progress, and overseas projects such as Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and SPIC's Guinean project may increase overseas alumina production in July [2]. - **Cost and price**: The average daily full production cost of domestic alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton. Due to the possible decline in Guinean bauxite prices and policy - driven elimination of backward capacity, alumina prices may still rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 2,900 - 3,000 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,500 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has decreased compared to last week. The continuous accumulation of alumina inventory in Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants has led to a loose supply expectation [11][15]. - **Basis and spread**: The alumina basis and monthly spread are positive but at low levels. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in July due to capacity transfers and new project startups. Import volume may also increase due to production changes in overseas plants [3][62]. - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton. In the off - season, smelting profits remain high, but downstream demand is weakening, and aluminum prices may face adjustment pressure. It is recommended that investors take a callback approach in the short term, paying attention to support and resistance levels for SHFE and LME aluminum contracts [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased compared to last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has also increased [43][48]. - **Basis and spread**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, while the monthly spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) monthly spread is negative and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term, light - position, high - selling arbitrage opportunities for SHFE aluminum basis and spreads, and temporarily wait and see for LME aluminum monthly spread arbitrage opportunities [38][41]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy may decrease [6][82]. - **Cost and price**: The daily full production cost of domestic primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profits. Due to production losses and increasing inventory, casting aluminum alloy prices may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try to go short on the main contract at high levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 19,500 - 19,700 and resistance levels around 19,900 - 20,000 [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum alloy has increased, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [6][88]. Downstream Processing Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week, affected by the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [94][96].