Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coking coal and coke futures released by Dayue Futures on July 15, 2025, providing market analysis and price trends [1][2][6] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines have reduced their production due to safety inspections. With positive expectations in the coke market, the demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines are actively destocking. The prices of some scarce and high - cost - effective coal types are stable after the increase, and there may be a further price increase. The downstream steel and coke enterprises have low inventories and strong replenishment demand. In the short term, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Currently, coke enterprises have thin profits, with some in losses and still in a production - restricted state. However, the demand from steel mills is strong, and intermediate speculative traders are actively purchasing. Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their inventories are rapidly decreasing, resulting in a tight supply. In the short term, coke prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines' production has declined due to safety inspections. The demand is good, and coal mines are destocking. There may be a price increase for some coal types [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 940, and the basis is 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises have thin profits, some are in losses and restricting production. The demand from steel mills is good, and inventories are decreasing rapidly [6] - **Basis**: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is - 99.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] 2. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [4] - **Negative**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [4] - **Coke** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - **Negative**: The squeeze on the profit margin of steel mills and the partial over - exhaustion of replenishment demand [8] 3. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on July 14, 2025, including various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18] - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24] 5. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 78,510.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 640.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,870.00 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market shows a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 77,870.00 CNY per ton, down 0.15%, with a trading volume of 73,407 lots on May 28 [2] Price Overview - The price list for 1 electrolytic copper shows various quotes: - Shanghai Huatuo: 78,510 CNY/ton - Guangdong Nanshu: 78,500 CNY/ton - Shanghai YS: 78,495 CNY/ton [2] Market Capacity and Inventory - In 2025, 29 major domestic copper strip and sheet processing enterprises have a combined effective capacity of 2.034 million tons, accounting for 48.7% of the national effective total capacity [3] - As of May 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a copper futures warehouse receipt of 34,861 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 6,357 tons over the past week, representing a decrease of 15.42% [3] Market Analysis - The market is facing price suppression due to global economic weakness expectations driven by tariff policies, alongside a backdrop of a mild recession and high interest rates in the U.S. [4] - Support for prices is expected from tight copper raw material supply and potential new restocking demand following tariff easing [4] - Recent trends show a continuous reduction in LME and SHFE inventories, indicating that spot premiums and backwardation structures may persist for an extended period, supporting a strong price fluctuation [4]

5月13日，液化石油气期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约报4267.00元/吨，跌幅达2.18%。 【消息面汇总】 华联期货：原油晚间回吐部分涨幅，中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，液化气进口关税下降。近期国际市 场C3反弹。LPG国产商品量继续走低，低于过去两年水平。库容率：港口库容率在多年低位反弹反弹 至同期高位。炼厂库容率处于多年最低附近，加气站库容率一年低位波动不大；库存量：港口库存量反 弹。PDH周度产能利用率继续下降创一年新低，利润低迷；烷基化产能利用率回落，亏损收窄；MTBE 产能利用率回落，亏损偏大。关税降低后，预料国内将积极补库；市场此前对于美国市场缺口也在积极 寻求第三方的进口替代，也增加了潜在供应。但近期随着原油反弹，液化气溢价已经边际降低，有望对 冲关税降低进口增加的预期。需求方面，由于个别领导人多变的性格，贸易谈判或仍有反复。出于规避 这种不确定性和弥补库存缺口的需要，本次关税水平急剧转折将引发海外剧烈的补库需求，利好液化气 最大下游产品聚丙烯的需求。预料液化气仍宽幅震荡为主。操作上，日内偏空，压力位4400附近。 匈牙利总理欧尔班：匈牙利拒绝欧盟停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气的计划。 瑞 ...