P -11 OEXN DEXN交易 金融科技社 双监管|低点差| 注册体验: live.oe 全球官网:www. 国内官网: www OBAL FX ﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮ LOW Trad: 7 Arag pre BrokersviewExpo Abu Dhabi 2024 A Exhibitor particl KC Titler Business Development Maroger OPEN compony. ABU DHABI T 10-04 T Free DI 12 7 t - real in orest ar made a Rifal " 797 habi 202 ds, Big Retu 白银在新加坡时段的小幅下跌，与黄金、铂金和钯金的回落走势一致。美元指数保持平稳，也反映出市场正在等待更明确的政策指引。对于趋势交易者而 言，这一阶段更像是上涨行情中的技术性喘息，而不是终结信号。 从OEXN的角度看，当前的波动属于常见的高位震荡结构。在供需偏紧与货币政策宽松预期仍然成立的前提下，白银中长期的支撑因素依然稳固。投资者在 此时应更加关注区间震荡带来的潜在布局点，而非被短线波动扰动整体判断 ...

日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持(吨) 2025-12-01 1128.49 -2.34 2025-11-28 1130.83 -6.25 【要闻回顾】 美国11月ISM制造业PMI不及预期且连续九个月萎缩，强化了经济增长放缓忧虑与货币政策宽松预期； 同时，特朗普政府商讨对委内瑞拉"下一步行动"以及俄军宣布控制乌克兰两座重镇，均加剧地缘不确定 性，推升避险情绪。 日本央行行长释放明确加息信号，预示全球流动性环境可能边际收紧，或在一定程度上抑制贵金属上行 空间。 摘要12月1日，COMEX黄金库存录得1128.49吨，较上一交易日减少2.34吨；COMEX黄金周一(12月1日) 收4271.60美元/盎司，上涨0.36%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4299.60美元/盎司，最低触及4241.10 美元/盎司。 12月1日，COMEX黄金库存录得1128.49吨，较上一交易日减少2.34吨；COMEX黄金周一(12月1日)收 4271.60美元/盎司，上涨0.36%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4299.60美元/盎司，最低触及4241.10美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver and copper are becoming the new focus in the commodity market due to tightening global supply and expectations of loose monetary policy, with silver prices reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver prices have surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time in history, with a daily increase of approximately 1% [1] - Silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high of $57.81 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rapid price increase is primarily driven by deep concerns over supply shortages [1] - Traders are widely betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are limited expectations for monetary policy easing, and the flattening of the yield curve supports long - term interest rates [2] - The overall capital situation is stable, and bond supply does not exert significant pressure on the market [2] - Last week, Treasury bond futures contracts across all tenors generally closed lower, with long - term varieties like 30 - year Treasury bond futures experiencing larger declines, reflecting market concerns about long - term interest rates [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the issuance of interest - rate bonds and central bank operation signals, conduct band - trading, and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Yields - The data shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] 3.2 Funding Rates - The trends of the weighted average rate of pledged repo by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repo rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] 3.3 Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [4][5] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures current - quarter contracts are presented from different time periods [9][10][11][12] 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown from different time periods [13][15][16] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The current upward and downward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating insufficient domestic demand, which provides strong support for treasury bond futures in the long - term. On the other hand, there is no strong need for further policy tightening this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures. Due to tax period factors, capital liquidity fluctuations have intensified, and market interest rates have rebounded in the short - term, with the central bank mainly conducting net injections in the open market. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; View: oscillatory consolidation; Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. Upward and downward kinetic energy is limited. Economic data weakness supports long - term easing and treasury bond futures, but short - term policy rate cut is unlikely, and capital liquidity fluctuations and central bank net injections affect the market, resulting in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly in the previous two days this week due to factors like loose liquidity, reduced policy increments, stock market corrections, and geopolitical risk aversion. However, the upward and downward momentum is limited. Economic data shows insufficient domestic demand, so a long - term loose monetary environment is needed, but there is little need for policy intensification this year and a low possibility of short - term policy interest rate cuts [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From November 4th to November 10th, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the buyer sentiment turned negative, the divergence of seller views decreased, the bond market lacked a main driving force, and the sentiment was cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment - **Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From November 4th to November 10th, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.48, a decrease of 0.06 compared to October 28th - November 3rd. Most institutions held a bullish view, with 15 bullish, 10 neutral, and 2 bearish. 56% of institutions were bullish, believing in monetary policy easing and a decline in investor risk - appetite; 37% were neutral, seeing a tug - of - war between factors and range - bound bond yields; 7% were bearish, citing economic improvement and stock market pressure on bonds [5][12]. - **Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From November 4th to November 10th, the unweighted sentiment index was - 0.04, lower than the previous period. Institutions were neutral - bearish overall, with 3 bullish, 20 neutral, and 4 bearish. 11% of institutions were bullish, based on weak economic data expectations and reasonable bond value; 74% were neutral, concerned about policy uncertainties; 15% were bearish, due to expected economic improvement and supply pressure [6][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength, but attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - US game and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [8] - In the long - term, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an obvious repair, with relatively balanced increases in various maturity varieties. In the first half of the week, the repair of 3 - 7y Treasury bonds was more significant; in the second half, the repair of ultra - long - term yields was more prominent [4] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected this week but released a cautious signal, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut at the end of the year [4] - The China - US summit in Busan, South Korea reached a series of important consensuses in the economic and trade field, which was interpreted by the market as "good news exhausted", bringing a window period for bond repair and stock market adjustment [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), and the relationship between various interest rates and yields such as LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [10][12][18] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of Treasury bond futures for different maturities (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [44][52][59][65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of a mild rebound, driven by improved market sentiment due to trade tensions and a cooling equity market [2][7] - The rebound is attributed to three main factors: sufficient emotional clearance, stable funding conditions, and a return of easing expectations [5][18] - The "bond market micro trading thermometer" indicated a low reading of below the 30% percentile on October 10, suggesting that negative market sentiment has been largely priced in [3][10] Group 2 - Funding rates have remained stable, providing a "anchor point" for the bond market, which has historically limited the extent of bond yield increases during stable funding periods [4][11] - The cumulative increase in the 10-year government bond yield from July to September was at a historically high level during stable funding conditions, indicating a potential constraint on further increases [11][12] - Recent trade tensions have led to a mild recovery in expectations for monetary policy easing, as reflected in the decline of the one-year FR007 swap spread from +7bp to -3bp [5][18] Group 3 - The report anticipates a downward potential of around 10bp for the 10-year government bond yield, with a lower limit potentially testing 1.70% [5][18] - Despite the rebound, inflation lag and the trend of social financing rebound remain, indicating that the bond market opportunities should be approached with a rebound mindset [5][18] - The market's emotional structure is conducive to technical recovery, as the recent changes in sentiment and funding conditions create a favorable environment for bond market performance [3][4][10]