Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Due to the Politburo meeting in July mentioning the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, the future monetary environment tends to be loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, so Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI released in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On July 31, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 283.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method for a term of 7 days with a winning bid rate of 1.4% [5] - On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [5] - The report also includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side", due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The bottom support for treasury bond futures is strong, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term, as the financing demand of the real sector is still weak, the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing has increased, the central bank has injected liquidity, and there are expectations of policy benefits from the Lujiazui Forum [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2509 variety, short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the core logic is weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. May's credit data shows weak financing demand in the real sector, leading to rising expectations of monetary policy easing. The central bank's issuance of repurchase agreements has increased the expectation of a decline in market interest rates. The expected policy benefits from the Lujiazui Forum on the 18th will drive up the price of treasury bond futures. So, in the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate with strong bottom support [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. The key factors are the narrowing fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment as the intensity of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis is less likely to escalate, weak credit demand from the real sector despite government bonds supporting social financing data, rising expectations of future monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a core logic of weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. The driving factors are the narrow - range fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment, weak real - sector credit demand, rising expectations of monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the favorable conditions for gold prices due to lower-than-expected US CPI data, potential Fed rate cuts, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices show a resistance level at 3360, with potential support around 3358 and further down at 3345, indicating a volatile trading environment [2][4] - The domestic gold market has seen significant price movements, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 789 and expectations for further increases, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold investments [5] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests entering long positions when gold prices drop to the 3340-3340 USD range, with a stop-loss set below 3320 USD and a target of 3370-3380 USD [4] - For short positions, a recommendation is made to enter at 3370 USD with a stop-loss above 3390 USD and a target of 3340 USD, indicating a tactical approach to trading [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the PPI, and Fed policy decisions, as well as ongoing geopolitical developments, to inform trading strategies [1][2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The macro - economic indicators are weakening, increasing the expectation of monetary policy easing, but short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, so the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term (within one week) view is to oscillate, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated. The inflation data in May continued to weaken, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators increased the expectation of monetary policy easing, pushing down the Treasury bond yield. Although the uncertainty of the tariff outlook deepens and the domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. With the market's interest - rate cut expectation basically zero, the expectation of future easing policies will increase, providing strong support for the bottom of Treasury bond futures. However, short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, and the downward space for market interest rates is limited, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to a surge in gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of the bullish trend in gold [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Prices - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is closely linked to geopolitical risks. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, while tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continue to escalate. These factors are driving investor demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [3]. Favorable Factors for Gold Bullish Trend - **Global Economic Uncertainty**: Signs of slowing global economic growth are becoming more apparent, with major economies facing recession risks. Poor economic data from the U.S. has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **Expectations of Monetary Policy Easing**: The Federal Reserve has raised inflation expectations while lowering growth forecasts, hinting at potential interest rate cuts. This easing monetary policy could lead to currency depreciation, further supporting gold prices [5]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are increasing their gold reserves, which boosts physical demand and strengthens gold's position in the international monetary system [6]. Challenges Facing Gold Bulls - **Potential Easing of Geopolitical Risks**: If geopolitical tensions ease through negotiations, investor demand for gold may decline, leading to price corrections. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine talks illustrate this potential shift [7]. - **Uncertainty in Dollar Performance**: The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices is typically negative. A strengthening dollar, driven by positive U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed signals, could pressure gold prices [9]. - **Market Sentiment Volatility**: Investor sentiment significantly impacts gold prices. Changes in market dynamics or reduced concerns over geopolitical risks could weaken bullish sentiment in the gold market [10]. Technical Analysis Outlook - Recent price movements have seen gold break through key resistance levels, suggesting a strengthened bullish outlook. If gold can maintain levels above $3,435 or $3,500, the bullish trend may continue, potentially reaching new highs [11]. Timeframe for Gold Bullish Trend - The bullish trend in gold is expected to persist in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks. However, any signs of easing tensions could lead to a rapid market response. In the medium to long term, factors such as global economic uncertainty, easing monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases are likely to provide solid support for gold prices [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in the bond market following the LPR reduction on May 20, 2025, with a notable increase in the issuance of special government bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.2 basis points to 1.72% compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the yield curve [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 8.0 basis points to 4.51%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy due to the Trump tax cuts, which widened the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The R007 and DR007 interbank liquidity rates increased by 4.6 basis points and 4.4 basis points respectively, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [1] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the 10-year government bond index (H11077), which includes publicly issued and listed government bonds with a maturity of 6.5 to 10 years, serving as a benchmark for long-term government bond market performance [1]

Core Insights - The domestic gold market in China has shown significant growth in transaction volume and value in Q1 2025, driven by various factors across production, consumption, market activity, and policy changes Production Insights - Gold production in China has steadily increased, with companies optimizing resource utilization and accelerating overseas expansion. Major gold mining projects are advancing, and large gold groups are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions. In Q1 2025, overseas gold production reached 18.485 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14% [1] Consumption Insights - There is a structural divergence in gold consumption, with investment demand surging while jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices. Traditional gold and lightweight gold jewelry are in high demand, particularly among younger consumers. Investment in gold bars and coins has significantly increased due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability [2] Market Activity Insights - The gold market in China has experienced heightened trading activity, with substantial increases in both transaction volume and value. In Q1 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and a transaction value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a trading volume of 55,400 tons, a 91.17% increase, and a transaction value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69%. Additionally, domestic gold ETF holdings grew by 23.47 tons, a staggering year-on-year increase of 327.73% [3] Policy Insights - The Chinese government has reinforced the asset allocation properties of gold, with recent policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold. This has led to the first insurance fund gold investment transaction under the new framework, injecting new vitality into the gold market [4] Investment Logic Insights - The surge in gold ETF holdings is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of loose monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, a weakening dollar, and heightened investment interest. Factors such as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks have amplified the need for safe-haven investments [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US unexpectedly increased tariffs, which will affect the short - term market sentiment, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased [2]. - The impact of the US tariff policy announcement is expected to land in the short - term, and precious metals prices are rising [2]. - The EC (European Line) of the container shipping index shows a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The blast furnace in the steel industry continues the resumption trend, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - As the earnings period approaches, wait for profit verification. The third - round of unexpectedly increased 34% tariffs announced by Trump may affect short - term sentiment. Pay attention to subsequent domestic hedging policies. Suggest to follow the trend and go long in the short - term [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the capital interest rate declined overall. The unexpectedly large - scale tariff increase on China by the US has strengthened the market's expectation of loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures will be relatively strong in the short - term. Consider positive arbitrage strategies and basis widening strategies for TF and TS contracts [2]. Precious Metals - After the US tariff is implemented, the gold price fluctuates greatly. Keep a low - buying idea or sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The resistance of the international silver price at the previous high of $34.8 (8,600 yuan) needs to be broken through. Downstream procurement is advised to buy in batches at low prices for hedging [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC disk shows a narrow - range oscillation. Maintain a short - term low - buying and high - selling idea, and consider going long on the far - month 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel: The blast furnace continues to resume production, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. Existing short positions can be gradually stopped for profit. Iron ore: The macro - environment is frequently disturbed, and the height of hot metal resumption is questionable. Try shorting on rebounds. Coke: After the eleventh round of price cuts, it is temporarily stable, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. Do high - short operations. Coking coal: The market auction has improved, and coal mine production has slightly increased, but the inventory is high, and the rebound space is limited. Do high - short operations. Ferrosilicon: Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and macro - sentiment changes [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US tariff policy affects the short - term price, and the price fluctuates. The upper resistance is difficult to break through. The main contract reference range is 77,000 - 80,000. Zinc: The price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 24,000. Stainless steel: After the equal - tariff policy is implemented, the fundamentals change little. The main contract reference range is 126,000 - 134,000. Tin: The raw material support is strong, and the supply - demand game continues [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by the US tariff policy and EIA inventory accumulation, the short - term oil price center has moved down. Suggest short - term waiting and seeing. PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but it may be dragged down in the short - term by the US tariff policy. PTA: The supply - demand expectation is good, but it may be affected in the short - term by the US tariff policy. Polyester fiber: Driven by the expectation of production cuts, the processing fee on the disk has a repair drive. Bottle chips: The supply has increased, and the processing fee is under pressure. Ethanol: The supply has further decreased, but it will oscillate in the short - term due to the expectation of polyester production cuts. Styrene: It mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Caustic soda: The inventory at all links is not optimistic, and the disk is difficult to rebound effectively. PVC: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the disk trend is relatively tangled. Synthetic rubber: It oscillates as natural rubber is under pressure above and butadiene is firm in the short - term. LLDPE: The spot market changes little, and the upstream continues to destock. PP: The supply decreases and the demand increases, and the fundamentals have slightly improved [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The US soybean planting intention report meets expectations. Pay attention to the boost from biodiesel demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,800 - 3,000. Live pigs: The disk fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the weight risk. The support around 13,000 is strong. Corn: The supply volume changes little, and the disk stabilizes and rebounds. It fluctuates in the range of 2,250 - 2,300. Oils: The short - term continuous palm oil may hit 9,500 points. White sugar: It follows the raw sugar price fluctuations. Pay attention to the pressure around 6,200. Cotton: The supply is sufficient, and there is no strong upward drive in the short - term. It oscillates in the range of 13,000 - 14,000. Eggs: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. Reduce short positions and hold near - far month arbitrage. Apples: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, fruit farmers are reluctant to sell. It may oscillate around 7,700 in the short - term. Jujubes: The market price is relatively stable. It runs around 9,100 in the short - term. Peanuts: The market price oscillates weakly. The main contract runs around 8,100. Soda ash: The daily production has recovered to some extent, and the supply - demand surplus pressure still exists. Adopt a short - selling idea after rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The production and sales in many regions have strengthened again. Consider going long at low prices for the near - month contract on pullbacks. Rubber: Affected by high - temperature drought in the Yunnan production area, the raw material output slows down, and the rubber price rebounds. Lightly try to go long in the range of 16,000 - 16,500, and continue to hold low - position long positions. Logs: The spot price falls, and the new round of foreign quotation is lowered. The price is under pressure. It oscillates in the range of 810 - 850. Industrial silicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures contract reduces positions and falls. The main fluctuation range is about 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - Polysilicon: The futures contract oscillates strongly. Long positions can be held from the fundamental perspective, but the US tariff increase may increase market volatility. Lithium carbonate: The disk oscillates weakly, and the fundamental pressure still exists. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 72,000 - 76,000 yuan [2].