前言 9月11日起，欧盟接连对12家中国企业下手，钢铁关税一夜之间飙升到50%。墨西哥紧随其后，1000多个中国商品被加征重税。 短短一周，28个国家抱团对华施压，中国也不再只是"劝劝就好"，而是果断亮出"长剑"反击。 那么，特朗普这波"组团围剿"，真能达成他的算盘吗？中国又会如何破局？ 28国突然转向，一周内对华下狠手 布鲁塞尔时间9月19日，欧盟委员会会议室里气氛紧张。 与会官员手中的文件清单上，12家中国企业的名字赫然在列，罪名是"与俄罗斯进行石油交易"。 这份被外界称为"第19轮对俄制裁"的清单，实际上把矛头直指中国。制裁理由听起来冠冕堂皇，但明眼人都看得出，这是项庄舞剑，意在沛公。 更让人意外的还在后头。同一天，欧盟贸易专员马尔姆斯特伦在爱尔兰公开放话：20项针对中国的调查即将启动。 墨西哥呢？早在9月11日接到来自华盛顿的"友好提醒"后，态度来了个180度大转弯。对1000多个中国商品加征高达50%的关税，汽车、机械、钢铁无一幸 免。 这种整齐划一的动作，让人不得不怀疑背后有统一的指挥。 波兰更是来了个狠的，直接封锁中欧班列铁路线，一封就是5天。 这条连接中国与欧洲的生命线瞬间中断，无数货物滞留在 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避国庆长假风险 豆一：新豆上市，市场预期政策支持 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（09.22-09.26），美豆期价偏弱运行，主要因为阿根廷免税事件扰动、中美贸易摩擦忧虑（中 方尚未开启美豆采购）。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 1.17%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周跌幅 3.27%。 上周（09.22-09.26），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，主要因为阿根廷出口免税政 策扰动、"缺货"担忧缓解。豆一方面，主要因为政策支持预期。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，豆粕主 力 m2601 合约周跌幅 2.55%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 0.79%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华 财经） 上周（09.22-09.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美豆净销售周环比下降、符合预期，影响 中性偏空。据 USDA 出口销售报告，9 月 18 日当周，装船方面，2025/26 年美豆出口装船约 51 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Core Viewpoint - The negotiations between the U.S. and India are centered around oil purchases, particularly the pressure on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, which India views as essential for its economy and inflation control [1][5][22]. Group 1: U.S. Pressure Tactics - The U.S. has made it clear that any trade agreements with India are contingent upon India reducing its purchases of Russian oil, with tariffs and visa policies being used as leverage [1][3][22]. - Historical context shows that previous U.S. administrations, including Trump's, have linked trade concessions to India's oil sourcing decisions, indicating a long-standing strategy of using energy as a bargaining chip [3][22]. Group 2: India's Response and Strategy - India has firmly stated that Russian oil is economically necessary due to its affordability, and any unilateral restrictions would lead to increased costs and inflation [5][22]. - India has proposed that if it is to reduce Russian oil imports, the U.S. must ease restrictions on importing oil from Iran and Venezuela, indicating a willingness to negotiate but with conditions [5][13][22]. - The Indian government maintains that discussions with the U.S. have been constructive, leaving room for further negotiations despite the contentious issues [7][22]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Sanctions - The U.S. decision to revoke sanctions waivers for Iran's Chabahar port has significant implications for India's strategic interests, as this port is crucial for connecting to Afghanistan and Central Asia [10][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Chabahar port may force India to rely more on spot market purchases and long-distance oil sourcing, complicating its energy strategy [12][22]. Group 4: Domestic and Geopolitical Considerations - Both countries are aware that their negotiations are not just about oil but also about domestic political pressures and public perception [15][22]. - India's recent military advancements, such as the test of the Agni-Prime missile, serve as a demonstration of its capabilities and a signal of strength in the face of U.S. pressure [17][22]. - The ongoing discussions about H-1B visa regulations further complicate the relationship, as these changes directly impact India's IT and engineering sectors [20][22]. Group 5: Future Negotiation Pathways - For a resolution to be reached, the U.S. may need to establish a clear timeline for reducing Russian oil imports, provide compliance windows for Iranian and Venezuelan oil imports, and avoid using tariffs and visa issues as punitive measures [25][27]. - A balanced approach that considers both countries' economic and strategic interests could lead to a more favorable outcome in the negotiations [27].

前言 9月25日，中国商务部的表态让所有人明白，这不是谈判技巧，而是真正的较量，曾经最依赖中国市场的美国豆农，如今只能眼睁睁看着巴西抢走所有生 意。 中国手中握着什么王牌？这场较量谁会先让步？ 编辑：星 连续4个月一颗不买！126亿美元大生意说停就停 连续4个月，中国对美国大豆一颗不买。 这个曾经占据美国大豆出口60%份额的超级买家，彻底消失了。从5月的第一声"不买"到9月商务部的正式表态，中国用最直接的方式告诉世界：原则不能妥 协。 126亿美元，这不只是一个数字，而是美国豆农一年的生计，是整个农业州的经济命脉。按照往年惯例，这个时候正是中国大量采购美国新豆的时节，码头 应该排满了装船的货车，农民脸上应该挂着丰收的笑容。 126亿美元的生意说停就停，连续4个月不下一张订单，这在国际贸易史上极其罕见。 但现在，一切都变了。美国的大豆仓库堆积如山，无人问津。 更让美国人意外的是，中国并没有因此陷入供应短缺。 相反，从巴西到阿根廷，从乌拉圭到俄罗斯，中国的采购团队忙得不亦乐乎。仅仅9月份，中国就与阿根廷签署了35船大豆的采购协议，创下中阿大豆贸易 的历史新高。 数据更说明问题：2025年1-9月，中国从美国的大豆 ...

吃饭砸锅，加拿大的肠子都要悔青了！总理、部长和外长等高官接连宣布访华计划，就是想亲自劝中国"收回成命"。 最近加拿大高层的动作，有点耐人寻味。 当地时间 9 月 23 日，加拿大总理卡尼在纽约和中方高层举行会晤，就农业和农产品、油菜籽、电动车以及钢铁关税等问题进行了讨论。 当时卡尼明确表示，他会在"适当的时候"与中方领导人举行会晤； 在此之前，加拿大萨斯喀彻温省省长斯科特・莫伊已经率团访华，旨在推动中方取消对加拿大油菜籽实施的进口关税。 跟团一起访华的加拿大议员布洛伊斯表示，之后会还有更多部长要来中国。 加拿大方面密集释放访华信号，背后到底藏着什么心思？ 加拿大之前还在恶狠狠对中国产品加征高额关税，一副要跟中国斗到底的架势，如今却急于上门 "说好话"，难道真的是因为吃饭砸锅， "肠子悔青" 了？ 先回头看看加拿大当初的操作。 2024 年 10 月，加拿大借口所谓的"保护本土产业"，突然对中国电动汽车下狠手，宣布加征 100% 关税，中国钢铝产品也一样没逃过，被加征 25% 关税。 结果相关措施出来之后，中国电动汽车对加出口直接暴跌，降幅高达 99%。 也是同一天，加拿大外交部长阿南德透露，她计划未来几周内访 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a trade investigation into Mexico's trade restrictions against Chinese imports, particularly targeting the automotive sector [1] - The investigation was triggered by Mexico's decision to raise tariffs on automotive imports from countries without free trade agreements from 20% to 50%, significantly impacting Chinese automotive exports, which amounted to $3.7 billion in 2022, accounting for 15% of Mexico's total automotive imports [1] - The scope of the investigation mirrors the sectors affected by Mexico's tariff increase, including automotive manufacturing, textiles, children's toys, and agricultural products, with a flexible investigation period of six months that can be extended [1] Group 2 - The investigation serves as a warning to Mexico, emphasizing that external pressures should not compromise third-party interests, implicitly pointing to the influence of the United States [2] - By initiating this investigation during a time when the Biden administration is strengthening economic ties with Mexico, China is sending a clear message that any attempts to create a trade encirclement against China will face strong retaliation [4] - Mexico exports approximately $280 million worth of agricultural products to China annually, with fresh products like avocados and berries having a high dependency rate of 40%, which could become leverage for China in future retaliatory measures [4] Group 3 - There remains a negotiation window of about 90 days before Mexico's tariff policy is officially implemented, indicating potential for resolution [7] - If Mexico proceeds with the tariff increase, it could lead to significant impacts on global supply chains, particularly affecting consumers in Mexico who rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing for automotive and electronic products [7] - The outcome of this trade dispute will test the political acumen of all parties involved [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

当月，电动车型成为罕有亮点，混合动力、插电式混合动力和纯电动轿车产量约达1.68万辆，同比增长 40.9%，几乎占轿车总产量的一半。 分析指出，8月数据反映出产业调整和海外市场需求放缓的双重压力，对欧盟市场的出口受到需求疲软 和监管趋严影响，对美国市场的出口则继续承压于关税壁垒和贸易摩擦。 英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会25日发布数据显示，英国8月汽车产量创下自1956年以来同期最低水平， 海外市场需求疲软和关税壁垒等为影响主因。 该协会首席执行官迈克·霍斯表示，8月通常是汽车行业的"淡季"，但今年的情况更为复杂。英国政府应 加快落实新的工业战略和产业举措，以支持汽车产业在就业、经济和贸易中继续发挥关键作用。 数据显示，当月英国汽车总产量约为3.87万辆，同比下降18.2%。其中，轿车产量约为3.7万辆，同比下 降10.2%；商用车仅生产1621辆，同比骤降73.2%。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

摘要周三，美元指数日内持续上涨，并一度逼近98美元关口，但未能上破此处，最终收涨0.66%，报 97.86。因美元走强，现货黄金从历史高位回落，盘中一度跌至3717.52美元的低点，较日高大跌60美 元，但随后收复部分失地，最终收跌0.75%，收报3735.89美元/盎司；现货白银收跌0.3%，报43.89美元/ 盎司。 【行情回顾】 周三，美元指数日内持续上涨，并一度逼近98美元关口，但未能上破此处，最终收涨0.66%，报97.86。 因美元走强，现货黄金从历史高位回落，盘中一度跌至3717.52美元的低点，较日高大跌60美元，但随 后收复部分失地，最终收跌0.75%，收报3735.89美元/盎司；现货白银收跌0.3%，报43.89美元/盎司。 周三晚间，美元指数反弹。美国财长贝森特表态支持大幅降息，认为美联储利率过高过久，应释放100 至150个基点的降息信号，强化了市场对宽松周期的预期；而美联储内部意见出现分化，古尔斯比警告 勿过度降息，戴利则认为经济增长放缓与低通胀支持进一步宽松，政策不确定性仍存。 美国与欧盟达成汽车关税协议，但对医疗器械等发起232调查，贸易摩擦风险延续；克里姆林宫批评特 朗普试图 ...