2025年，中国历经动荡。年初，中国面临地缘政治逆风与内需疲软的双重压力；去年4月，新关税政策 与贸易摩擦引发了数十年来最重大的贸易冲突。 然而，局势在去年11月迎来转折。中国年度贸易顺差突破1万亿美元，创下历史新高；国内生产总值 （GDP）增速稳定在5%左右，似乎已经摆脱"去全球化"的阴霾。 2026年，中国将面临怎样的挑战？尽管媒体焦点仍集中在美国总统特朗普的关税政策或中国的房地产困 境，但更深层的趋势正在重塑中国未来的经济走向。跨国企业在中国市场正面临新挑战，本土企业竞争 力日益增强是其中之一，但机遇依然存在。在这个全球第二大经济体应对风云变幻的国际经济环境之 际，以下五个核心问题至关重要。 关税不确定性将如何重塑跨国企业的在华战略？ 凭借成本优势与一体化供应链，中国在全球制造业中长期占据主导地位。即便2025年美国加征关税后， 关税税率最终稳定在50%左右，这一优势仍未动摇。 关税并未对中国贸易造成显著冲击：中国出口占国际市场份额稳定在14%左右，是印度与越南两国总和 的四倍。 图片来源：Wand Zhao—AFP via Getty Images 原因在于中国已实现贸易伙伴多元化。目前，对美商品出口 ...

2026年2月13日，在慕尼黑安全会议上，世贸组织总干事伊维拉对中国2025年全年贸易顺差达到1.2万亿 美元，表达了三点看法： 眼红中国1.2万亿美元贸易顺差，WTO对中国提意见。 第一，认为中国1.2万亿美元贸易顺差"规模过大"，挤压他国贸易空间，导致部分国家出口受阻、经济 承压，引发全球贸易领域"不满情绪"。 第二，指责中国过度依赖出口拉动经济，产业模式"不合理"，要求中国压缩出口、扩大进口，通过"让 利"缓解不满。 第三，声称高顺差可能加剧贸易摩擦，呼吁中国多承担"责任"，主动减少顺差以"减少仇恨"，维护全球 贸易稳定。 伊维拉的话看似冠冕堂皇，实则经不起推敲，带着明显双重标准，完全忽视中国贸易顺差的真相和全球 贸易基本规律。 首先，"顺差过大挤压他国空间"纯属本末倒置。 中国1.2万亿美元顺差，不是靠抢占市场、不公平竞争得来的，而是靠完整产业链、4亿工人的付出，以 及符合WTO规则的公平贸易换来的。 海关数据显示，2025年中国出口同比增长5.5%，全球出口份额突破15%，但这背后是出口结构升级，是 全球市场的主动选择。 更关键的是，不是中国不让他国赚钱，而是西方国家人为设置贸易壁垒。 这些年中国一 ...

Core Viewpoint - France is pushing for a 30% tariff on all Chinese goods entering the EU, which has sparked significant controversy and internal dissent within the EU [3][5][19]. Trade Relations and Tariff Proposals - France's push for tariffs stems from a trade deficit with China amounting to €304.5 billion in 2024, leading to a blame-shifting mentality rather than addressing internal structural issues [5][15]. - The proposed tariff strategy aims to counteract China's cost advantages and encourage European consumers to choose local products, but it contradicts international trade rules and could jeopardize European supply chains [7][19]. - France is also considering a strategy similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord, proposing a 20%-30% devaluation of the euro against the yuan to weaken Chinese export competitiveness [7][9]. Internal EU Dynamics - France's aggressive tariff proposal faces strong opposition from Germany and other EU nations that rely heavily on Chinese markets, highlighting significant internal divisions within the EU [13][15]. - Countries like the Netherlands, Spain, and Hungary have expressed their reluctance to support France's radical stance, prioritizing their economic interests over alignment with French policies [13][15]. Economic Implications - The implementation of such tariffs could lead to a significant increase in prices for Chinese goods in Europe, burdening consumers and hindering economic recovery [19][30]. - French industries, particularly wine and luxury goods, are highly dependent on the Chinese market, and retaliatory measures from China could severely impact these sectors [11][17]. Global Context and Strategic Implications - The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. also seeking to curb China's rise, indicating a coordinated Western strategy against China [21][23]. - France's position as a leading advocate for tariffs may isolate it internationally, risking economic damage and loss of access to the Chinese market if it continues down this path [28][30].

Group 1 - China is steadily selling US Treasury bonds and increasing its gold reserves to strengthen its economic security [1][5][11] - The US Treasury Secretary's comments on China's economy are seen as an attempt to pressure China into adjusting its economic structure and addressing the trade surplus with the US [3][17][21] - China's actions of selling US debt and accumulating gold are viewed as rational risk management rather than confrontation with the US [9][13][15] Group 2 - The US has been increasing its debt and printing money, leading to a decline in the credibility of the dollar, which poses risks for countries holding US debt [7][9] - China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces by January 2026, with a monthly increase of 40,000 ounces, as gold is considered a stable asset amid global economic fluctuations [11][13] - The US perceives China's actions as a threat, as the selling of US debt reduces its attractiveness and puts pressure on the US financial system [15][17] Group 3 - The US Treasury Secretary's remarks are interpreted as an attempt to shift domestic blame for economic issues onto China, amidst rising unemployment and inflation in the US [35][38] - The narrative of "China's trade surplus" is used to justify potential tariffs and export controls against China, aiming to protect US economic interests [40][42] - The US is concerned about China's advancements in high-tech industries and is attempting to disrupt China's "14th Five-Year Plan" to prevent it from moving up the value chain [44][46][49] Group 4 - The US's double standards in trade practices are highlighted, as it criticizes China for subsidies while employing similar tactics domestically [27][29] - The article argues that the trade surplus between China and the US is a result of global supply chain dynamics and not an unfair advantage [51] - China is committed to advancing its economic development and industry upgrades while maintaining its sovereignty against US pressures [53]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen below 6.9, indicating that the current appreciation of the RMB is influenced not only by a weakening USD but also by internal factors [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The end of the year is a time when export companies tend to settle their foreign exchange, leading to increased demand for RMB as companies prefer to settle early amid strengthening RMB appreciation expectations [5]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to a recovering domestic stock market and improved risk appetite, resulting in enhanced capital inflows [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Investments - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD reduces the risk premium on RMB assets, improving foreign investors' risk appetite, which is beneficial for the stock market [8]. - Concerns that RMB appreciation will weaken export competitiveness are unfounded, as true competitiveness is determined by the RMB's effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies, not just the USD [10][11]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Historically, RMB appreciation has not negatively impacted export growth; for instance, during the pandemic in 2020, the RMB appreciated by 6.7% while exports still grew, supported by supply chain resilience [16]. - The RMB's appreciation against the USD is expected to remain moderate and strong in 2026, driven by supply-demand dynamics influenced by capital flows and trade surpluses [19][20]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The capital flow dynamics are influenced by the interest rate differentials between China and the US, with the current trend showing a convergence of rates [20]. - A high trade surplus in China continues to increase foreign exchange assets within the domestic financial system, but the actual appreciation of the RMB depends on whether these assets are converted into RMB through settlement [25]. Group 5: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to observe key levels around 6.8, with potential for short-term corrections [26].

摘要 2025年，人民币表现出较强的韧性，人民币有效汇率指数呈现出"先降后升"的走势。 人民币对美元出现明显的"补涨"行情。与美元指数的快速回落相比，人民币对美元汇率在2025年前四个 月表现得相对"克制"。自5月起，人民币对美元汇率呈现单边上涨趋势。 我们认为，在这一轮人民币升值的背后存在两条结构性主线。第一条是中国宏观政策持续落地后，经济 预期和资本市场风险偏好改善，带动人民币资产价格修复。第二条线索是中国出口在全球贸易战背景下 保持强大的韧性，贸易顺差规模达到历史高位，为人民币汇率提供坚实支撑。 人民币对美元汇率突破7这一关键心理关口后，市场关于"人民币是否会持续升值""是否应该大幅升 值"等讨论迅速升温。我们认为，随着中国经济基本面的持续改善，人民币汇率有望继续温和升值，同 时中国宏观环境的改善需要财政与货币政策保持相应的政策力度、维持合适的节奏，并形成良好的政策 协同。 正文 一、2025年人民币有效汇率指数呈现"先降后升"走势 2025年，从内部来看，中国经济存在"供强需弱"的结构性矛盾，坚持内需主导和创新驱动是2026年中国 经济工作重点任务之首。从外部来看，国际经贸斗争与科技博弈变得更为长期化 ...

Core Insights - Zimbabwe achieved a trade surplus of $240.2 million in December 2025, marking a 163.8% increase from November, driven by increased exports of minerals and agricultural products such as gold, tobacco, and nickel [1] Export and Import Summary - December exports reached $1.142 billion, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 9.1%, while imports totaled $901.5 million, primarily consisting of fuel, machinery, grains, and vehicles [1] - Cumulative export revenue from January to November 2025 amounted to $8.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, indicating a sustained increase in export momentum [1] - The UAE, South Africa, and China are the main export markets, collectively accounting for nearly 90% of Zimbabwe's export revenue [1]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐靓丽 2025年，中国贸易顺差达到1.189万亿美元，成为史上首个贸易顺差过万亿美元的国家。 2025年，中国对欧盟、东盟的货物贸易顺差分别达2918亿美元、2758亿美元，对印度和非洲的贸易顺差 均约为1000亿美元。 稳外贸政策持续发力 近年来中国出口的结构也在不断优化，商品贸易上长期呈现"初级产品逆差、工业制成品顺差"的格局。 2025年，中国初级产品逆差达8593亿美元；工业制成品顺差达20483亿美元。 数据显示，2025年，中国外贸进出口总值达63547.7亿美元，同比增长3.2%，连续九年增长，创加入世 贸组织以来最长连续增长纪录。其中出口增长5.5%，进口基本持平，最终形成1.189万亿美元的顺差， 同比增长19.79%。 这一亮眼成绩的背后，是中国产业升级、市场多元化布局与全球分工格局演变共同作用的结果。而越来 越多的新兴市场，正在成为中国外贸的新增长点。 出口保持韧性增长 日前，海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年我国货物进出口总值为63547.7亿美元，同比增长3.2%。其 中，贸易顺差1.189万亿美元，同比增长19.79%。 而中国货物贸易顺差快速扩张， ...

Group 1: Current Economic Challenges - The trade surplus in China is fundamentally a result of overcapacity, stemming from a long-term "capacity expansion strategy" [1][4] - The dual urban-rural structure, welfare deficits for migrant workers, and land finance prepayment for young families contribute to insufficient domestic demand [1][5] - The current economic model is heavily reliant on manufacturing, with policies favoring cost reduction for enterprises, leading to structural issues [10][12] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges, it is suggested to raise labor costs, eliminate export tax rebates, and impose carbon taxes as "anti-involution" measures to increase export costs and promote domestic circulation [1][10] - Implementing a "Chinese-style quantitative easing" policy is recommended, focusing on fiscal and monetary coordination to support social welfare improvements [2][22] - The government should prioritize investments in areas like fertility encouragement, educational equity, and the urbanization of migrant workers [2][23] Group 3: Currency and Capital Flow - A moderate appreciation of the RMB is advocated to optimize the import structure and correct structural distortions caused by a long-term undervaluation [1][12] - The capital account should maintain "limited and controlled openness" to prevent excessive volatility in the exchange rate [12][16] - There is a need to increase the supply of high-quality RMB-denominated assets in offshore markets to attract foreign investment [1][18] Group 4: Structural Adjustments - The current economic model needs to shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, necessitating structural adjustments in the economy [2][24] - The real estate market's structural issues, including oversupply and demographic changes, require innovative solutions such as reverse auctions for affordable housing [22][24] - The government should unify the funding for basic public services like education and healthcare to ensure equitable access and support for the population [23][24]

疫情期间由于海外供应链停摆，没办法复工，海外供应商供货不及时， 而我国疫情在管控总体得力的同时，又全力保证制造业继续运行，这就造成了巨大的供货优势。直接造 成我国各行业开始大量的搞国产化替代，而且替代之后发现国产居然这么好用，比进口货还好，就回不 去了。 一个是美国的各种制裁，还有一个是疫情。 而且后者的影响还更大，因为美国的制裁是聚焦在半导体等行业，而疫情的影响则是全部行业。 我有一个观点， 过去的七八年造成我国国产化和自主化加速的两大原因， 这个国产化替代不只是在国内市场，而且还包括海外市场，海外客户因为现有的国外供应商供货不及 时，于是采购中国制造替代了，然后很多此类替代发现中国的产品更好价格更优，就回不去了。 根据WTO数据，我国出口在全球占比从2019年的13.1%一度上升到2021年高点的15.0%，后来虽然国外 供应链恢复，但到2024年也有14.6%，还是比疫情前上升了不少。 其结果是，2025年我国的美元顺差（11889亿美元）几乎是2019年4215亿美元的三倍。 我觉得，尽管在最后完全放开的时间点上有些争议，但我国强力管控疫情，客观上促进了国产化替代加 速和贸易顺差猛增的后果。 ...