来源：外汇百科堂 本周，全球市场的目光将集中在美国通胀表现与能源库存变化上。投资者正重新评估通胀回落的节奏及 美联储年内政策调整空间，而国际油价的走势与库存数据，将成为衡量全球需求韧性与供应结构的关键 指标。总体来看，本周宏观数据与政策动向交织，美元、黄金与原油市场或迎来新一轮方向选择。 本 周重点财经事件日历（北京时间） 22:30 — 美国至10月17日当周EIA原油库存（万桶） 22:30 — 美国至10月17日当周EIA战略石油储备库存（万桶） 10月21日 周二 21:00 — 美联储召开支付创新会议，聚焦稳定币、人工智能及代币化议题，美联储理事沃勒发表开幕致 辞 10月22日 周三 04:30 — 美国至10月17日当周API原油库存（万桶） 10月23日 周四 04:00 — 美联储理事巴尔就"金融包容性"发表讲话 10月24日 周五 20:30 — 美国9月未季调CPI年率及核心CPI年率 美国9月季调后CPI月率及核心CPI月率 22:00 — 美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 美国10月一年期通胀预期终值 风险提示：本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场波动加剧，投资需谨慎。 0 ...

本周全球金融市场将迎来一系列关键经济数据的发布，其中最受瞩目的莫过于姗姗来迟的美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。此外，欧元区、英国、加 拿大和日本等主要经济体也将陆续公布通胀数据，这些数据将对各央行的货币政策走向产生重要影响，此外美股财报季继续展开，投资者需密切关注这些数 据和事件，以便更好地把握市场脉搏。 周一：欧元区数据先行，美国领先指标或维持负值 周一的焦点将集中在欧元区的数据上，特别是德国9月生产者价格指数（PPI）。市场普遍预期德国9月PPI环比和同比将维持负增长，其中环比预期为-1.4% （前值-2.2%）。这一数据将继续对欧元构成压力，但预计不会改变市场对欧洲央行在年底前维持利率不变的预期。晚间，美国9月谘商会领先指标也将公 布，预计将继续维持负值，反映美国经济增长的潜在风险。 当天，市场将重点关注美国姗姗来迟的9月CPI报告。预计CPI年率可能加速至3.1%（前值2.9%）。尽管通胀压力上升，但市场仍然押注本月降息的可能性， 除非数据出现超预期的增长。届时，投资者可以关注我们的CPI报告前瞻。此外，各国还将公布10月制造业及服务业PMI初值，投资者将关注英国和欧洲制 造业萎缩的压力以及服务 ...

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在过往的交易周期中，市场已然连续九周呈现周线收阳的良好态势。而本周的周K线走势，初步可判断 其进入了调整阶段。尤为值得关注的是，周五市场出现强势下跌行情，这一跌势不仅将当日早些时候的 上涨成果尽数抹去，还使得整体行情暂时陷入滞涨局面。 摘要今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4259.68美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4259.68 美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 在当前经济形势下，劳动力及零售领域的最新数据缺失，给政策制定者带来了不小的挑战。当他们试图 判断通胀放缓的程度能否支撑持续宽松的货币政策时，往往只能依据那些不够全面或是已然过时的信 息。而周五即将公布的消费者价格指数（CPI），极有可能成为美联储在下一周做出关键 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices, which increased from over $2,600 at the beginning of the year to above $4,300, represents a 60% rise, driven by structural changes rather than just inflation or safe-haven demand [3][8] - Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have significantly increased their gold purchases, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, reflecting a decline in confidence in the US dollar [3][10] - The US federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion and is growing at a rate of $1.5 to $2 trillion per year, leading investors to seek protection in gold [5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a dovish monetary policy, with expectations of interest rate cuts, reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing its attractiveness [6][10] - Major financial institutions have made bullish predictions for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 and Bank of America predicting a rise to $6,000 in the spring of next year [8][10] - Historical data suggests that gold prices could potentially double in the coming years, with projections indicating a peak of $5,800 per ounce by 2027 based on the relationship between US debt and gold prices [10] Group 3 - Silver has outperformed gold with an 84% increase year-to-date, driven by both gold's rise and strong industrial demand [12][13] - The demand for silver is being propelled by its use in solar panels, electric vehicles, and 5G technology, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [13] - Silver's market size is only one-ninth that of gold, making it more susceptible to price volatility and less supported by central bank demand [13] Group 4 - Different investment strategies are recommended for various types of investors in the current market, including holding positions for long-term investors and using dollar-cost averaging for those looking to enter the market [15][17] - Conservative investors are advised to consider gold ETFs for gradual investment, while aggressive investors may look into gold mining stocks to capitalize on both production and consumption opportunities [17] - Despite significant price increases in gold over the past two years, less than 30% of investors have realized actual profits, highlighting the risks of impulsive trading strategies [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

Group 1 - Major companies are increasing investments in nuclear fusion power, which will impact the nuclear fusion, shoreline energy storage, and photovoltaic or green energy sectors [1] - The A50 index rose nearly 1% on Friday, indicating improved market sentiment, with expectations of a likely high opening on Monday [1] - The third-quarter report of the technology company Hanwang shows revenue of 1.727 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1332.52%, and a net profit of 567 million, a year-on-year increase of 391.47% [1] Group 2 - The recent drop in spot gold and silver prices has led to bearish sentiment, but this is viewed as an opportunity rather than a risk [2] - The core logic behind the recent cycle of price increases is driven by inflation and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The demand for copper, aluminum, and silver is expected to rise due to advancements in AI technology [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is entering its third week of government shutdown, experiencing volatility influenced by U.S.-China trade relations [1] - Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, saw gains by the end of last week, despite daily fluctuations driven by mixed market sentiments [1] - Key economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on October 24, will be crucial for assessing economic conditions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty around the release of several economic indicators, including import prices and retail sales [2] - The National Association of Realtors is expected to release September existing home sales data, which may provide insights into the housing market recovery [2] - The corporate earnings season is ramping up, with major companies like Tesla, Intel, Netflix, and Coca-Cola set to report their Q3 earnings this week [2][3] - Tesla's performance is anticipated to be strong due to recent delivery boosts from tax incentives, while Intel's stock has risen following government investments and partnerships with Nvidia [3] Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Recent trade tensions have heightened market risk aversion, particularly following new export controls from China and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. [4] - The rare earth sector has seen volatility due to these trade disputes, despite being a recent market winner [4] - Trump's fluctuating policy signals regarding tariffs have added complexity to the supply chain landscape, with new tariffs on medium and heavy trucks set to take effect on November 1 [4] Commodity Markets - Gold prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks, currently trading around $4,240 per ounce, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that if foreign investors shift a small percentage of their U.S. assets to gold, prices could soar to $6,000 per ounce [5] - The oil market is facing expectations of oversupply, with Brent crude prices down approximately 2.3% and WTI down 2.8% over the past week [6] - OPEC+ has increased production targets, contributing to a rise in oil stored on tankers, which has reached over 1 billion barrels [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil surplus in 2026 to 4 million barrels per day, indicating a significant increase in expected oversupply [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant difference in investment outcomes over the past decade, highlighting the importance of choosing quality assets and the impact of inflation on wealth accumulation [1][3]. Investment Comparisons - Investing 1 million in Kweichow Moutai ten years ago would now be worth approximately 5 million, while Tencent would be valued at over 4 million. Real estate in Beijing would have appreciated to about 3.5 million. In contrast, keeping the money in a bank with a three-year fixed deposit rate would result in only about 1.3 million. The worst outcome is for those who frequently traded stocks, potentially reducing their investment to 600,000 [3]. Investment Principles - Three key investment truths are highlighted: 1. Quality equities are the best assets, as demonstrated by the sustained profit growth of companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tencent [3]. 2. Inflation acts as a hidden wealth killer, with an average annual inflation rate of about 5% over the past decade, making bank deposits insufficient [3]. 3. Blind trading is a primary cause of losses, as many investors attempt to time the market, often resulting in buying high and selling low [3]. Investment Strategies - Three practical investment recommendations are provided: 1. Selecting the right sectors is more important than timing the market, with consumer, healthcare, and technology sectors being highlighted as resilient [3]. 2. Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy by regularly investing in quality funds or stocks can help smooth out risks [3]. 3. Patience is essential for wealth growth, as it requires time for investments to mature [3].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国债期货周报 | | | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货合约周度回暖。 ◼ 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反 复震荡中有所回暖。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。同时认为本轮回暖空间有限。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反复震 荡中有所回暖，同时机构周度净多头持仓有所增长。短端合约目前处于价格稳固状态，长端合约波动较 大。通胀同比降幅持续收窄。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 市场特征方面，国债期货市场呈现长端偏强、短端承压的分化特征，收益率曲线形态趋于平坦化。短 端品种（2 年期、5 年期）成交活跃度下降，而长端品种（10 年期、30 年期）持仓量增加。政策博弈、资 金面波动及股债跷跷板效应是核心驱动因素，整体形态因此而倾向于复杂化。 图 1：市场特征跟踪 资料来源：Wind，米筐、森普、 ...

Group 1: High-Frequency Tracking - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased again, impacting global risk assets, with a notable rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [10][11]. - September exports exceeded expectations due to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [12]. - Domestic industrial production has shown signs of decline, while infrastructure construction has weakened, although travel activity remains high [13]. Group 2: Data Commentary - Inflation has surpassed expectations, driven by rising prices in commodities, which have significantly influenced upstream PPI, and increases in gold and appliance prices affecting downstream CPI [14]. - The surge in M1 growth may be partially attributed to accelerated fiscal spending [15]. Group 3: Hot Topics - The article discusses the potential future direction of U.S. tariffs from an American perspective, providing a framework for understanding the implications of tariff strategies [9]. - The transition period between old and new economic forces is highlighted, raising questions about the impact of external factors on strong export performance and the evolving domestic demand pressures [8].