Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered after a series of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and the stock market. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. With the expected continuation of a loose capital environment and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [5]. - For precious metals, the weak US PPI data and employment data have increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - For various non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Generally, short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - environment, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [9][10][14]. - In the black building materials sector, steel products, iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon are all affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost. Most products are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21][24]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber, crude oil, methanol, urea, PVC, ethylene glycol, PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [33][39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean and rapeseed meal, oils and fats, sugar, and cotton are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policies. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [50][53][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1271.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount increased by 1.822 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate rose to 1.367%. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The TL main contract rose 0.07%, while T, TF, and TS main contracts fell. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 786.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.53% to 8787 yuan/kg. The weak US PPI and employment data increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 0.45% to 9690 US dollars/ton. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the processing fee is stabilizing. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 78200 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 0.12% to 2519 US dollars/ton. The short - term price is expected to continue to rebound, but the upward space is limited. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20200 - 20480 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2480 - 2540 US dollars/ton [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc smelter profits are rising. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the decline of zinc prices has been repeated [11][12]. Lead - The downstream consumption of lead is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that the lead price will continue to be weak [13]. Nickel - The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rebounds. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to be loose, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 US dollars/ton [15]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium has increased, and the inventory has risen slightly. It is expected that the contract will be weakly volatile. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract is 59500 - 60900 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is expected to be slightly volatile in the short - term due to high inventory and weakening raw material prices [18]. Black Building Materials Steel Products - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a downward trend. The demand for steel products is weak, and the export volume has declined. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, demand recovery, and cost support [20]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. The supply has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased [21]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - term due to the lack of significant improvement in real - estate demand. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [22][23]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend since February. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side. The decline is due to factors such as weak commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction [24][25]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is in a downward trend. It is due to over - capacity and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips easily [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber price has fallen due to a poor macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [33][37]. Crude Oil - The WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. It is not recommended to short due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [39]. Methanol - The methanol price has rebounded weakly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. Urea - The urea price has fallen due to high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile due to strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [43]. PTA - The PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter a new de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure will be relieved in June, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned capacity expansion and weakening demand [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price is mainly stable with partial small declines. The near - month contract is expected to be volatile, and the far - month contract can be shorted on rallies [50]. Eggs - The egg price is mostly stable with partial weakening. The near - month contract can be shorted on rallies, and attention should be paid to the support of the far - month contract [51][52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price has fallen. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory pressure is postponed. The new - year US soybean may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range of the 09 contract [53][54]. Oils and Fats - The palm oil price has support due to low inventory in some regions, but it is still under pressure if the production recovers rapidly. It is expected to be volatile [55][57]. Sugar - The sugar price has fallen. The international supply tension may have passed, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [58]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The downstream start - up rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall commodity market is still in a downward trend [59].

智通财经6月6日电，欧洲央行管委穆勒表示，可以对目前通胀水平感到满意，同意拉加德的观点，即 （降息）周期已接近尾声。 ...

贝莱德CEO芬克：关税措施可能在未来几个月内导致通胀水平上升。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that further escalation of trade tensions in the coming months will lead to economic growth and inflation levels falling below baseline forecasts [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's government is aggressively lowering rice prices, aiming to reduce the price of 5 kg of rice to 2000 yen, which is 47% lower than the latest price published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries[5] - As of May 30, the speculative net long position in yen has decreased to 164,000 contracts, an 8.4% drop from the peak in early May, marking five consecutive weeks of decline[10] - The US leading economic index fell to -4% in April, the lowest level since October of the previous year, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs may be less than expected[13] Group 2: Market Trends - Overseas investors net sold Japanese government bonds exceeding 1 trillion yen in May, totaling 1.6 trillion yen over four weeks[7][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 5.8%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating a significant excess return compared to domestic 10-year government bonds[19] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is 23.3, below the 16-year average, suggesting an increased attractiveness of stocks relative to fixed income assets[30] Group 3: Credit and Financing - As of May, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial bank loans in the US reached 3.9%, the highest since October 2023, supporting corporate output and potentially alleviating upward pressure on unemployment[16] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -25 basis points as of May 30, indicating a loosening of the offshore dollar financing environment following the reduction of tariff impacts[25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]

欧洲央行管委内格尔：通胀水平可能高于或低于此前预期。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of various sectors in the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and export sectors. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral to tight monetary policy is seen as beneficial in the short term, but long-term implications depend on inflation trends. If inflation remains above 2%, policies will tighten; if it falls below, easing may occur [1][5][18]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% new tariffs have severely impacted profit margins for low-end Chinese exporters, while high-end manufacturers can pass on some costs. Even without tariff changes, export data is expected to decline gradually, particularly in May [1][13][14]. - **Real Estate and Consumption Trends**: The long-term outlook for the Chinese real estate market is negative, with structural changes in consumption expected but not leading to significant growth. Traditional stimulus measures are unlikely to yield substantial results in the near term [1][19][21]. - **Market Recovery Post-Tariff**: The market has largely absorbed the impacts of the tariff disputes, with U.S. and Chinese stock markets recovering to pre-tariff levels. Gold prices have shown a reverse correlation with U.S. stocks, influenced by tariff-related capital flows [1][10][20]. - **Economic Data and Trade War Effects**: The first quarter of 2025 showed strong economic data in China, attributed to preemptive orders due to the trade war. However, risks are increasing as data begins to weaken in the second quarter [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sensitivity to Currency Fluctuations**: High-end manufacturers are less sensitive to RMB fluctuations compared to low-end firms, which are more affected by tariff negotiations and currency depreciation [4][23]. - **Expectations for Future Stimulus**: The likelihood of significant stimulus measures in July is low, with a focus on structural changes rather than immediate economic boosts. The real estate sector may see some policy adjustments, but overall economic growth is not expected to rebound sharply [19][21]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market's performance in early 2025 was driven by factors such as trade tensions and capital outflows from U.S. equities, rather than central bank purchases [25][26]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with no immediate monetary easing anticipated unless economic data deteriorates significantly [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, economic performance, and market reactions.

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 14 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。目前下游积极性一般，现货跟跌，09 基 差偏低。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求 未实质性改善之前 PVC 压 ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘横向波动一段后下行，午后略有回升， 全天窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2506 上涨 0.02%，10 年期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | T2506 下跌 0.01%，5 年期 TF2506 下跌 0.07%，2 年期 TS2506 下跌 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 770 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.40%， | | | | | 当日有无逆回购到期，当日实现净投放 770 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日下行，DR001 全天加权 平均为 1.49%，上一交易日加权平均 1.53%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.54%，上一交 | | | | | 易日加权平均 1.61%。 3、现券市场：上周五银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日窄幅波动，2 年期国 | | 宏观与金 | | TL、T、 ...