Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has neutral fundamentals with a mixed set of factors. The copper price is expected to move in a range, influenced by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, with the spot price at 78745 and the basis at 705, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5275 tons to 179375 tons on May 16, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The main net position has changed from long to short, which is a bearish factor [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight - balance state [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the upside space for copper is limited. There is a continuous game between the shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the release of mine production capacity on the supply side, and the resumption of scrap copper trade between China and the US still takes time. On the demand side, post - delivery restocking by downstream enterprises may briefly boost the spot premium, but high copper prices still suppress purchasing willingness. At the macro level, the decline of the US April CPI to 2.3% weakens the support for the US dollar. Overall, copper needs to be wary of inventory pressure and the risk of macro - sentiment switching [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly to 78,630 yuan/ton, a 0.95% increase from the previous day, and the LME copper price also rose to $9,624.5/ton. The spot discount of domestic premium copper widened to - 15 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper deepened to - 40 yuan/ton and - 80 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped from $23.87/ton on May 8 to $19.17/ton [1]. - The SHFE copper open interest continued to shrink, with the inventory on May 14 dropping to 185,575 tons, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, while the LME copper inventory soared to 50,069 tons, a 71.72% increase from the previous period. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the BC copper main contract was 16,871 lots, and the open interest increased to 2,471 lots, indicating increased capital activity [2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese scrap - produced anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.33 percentage points to 44.32% month - on - month due to the shortage of recycled copper raw materials, while the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises increased slightly by 2.50 percentage points to 72.40%. The new project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine (with a reserve of 9 billion tons) and the progress of the Ambler Mining Area Act in Alaska, USA, indicate the potential for medium - and long - term mine production capacity release, but it is difficult to alleviate the supply gap of recycled copper in the short term. The suspension of Sino - US trade has led to a loosening of scrap copper exports, but inventory transfer still takes time [3]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is marginally weakening. Near the delivery date, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market is suppressed by the high monthly spread. In North China, the spot discount widened to 480 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises generally wait to purchase after the contract change. There is a structural adjustment in the consumer electronics field, such as Solus, a Samsung supplier, accelerating the divestiture of its OLED business to focus on copper foil production, reflecting the industry's long - term bet on copper demand for electric vehicle batteries, but there is no significant boost in short - term demand in the power and construction sectors [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories are diverging. The LME copper inventory soared by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons, reaching a phased high; the SHFE inventory continued to decline to 185,600 tons. The COMEX inventory also slightly increased to 165,100 short tons [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | May 14, 2025 | May 13, 2025 | May 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 79,060 | 78,270 | 78,560 | 790 | 1.01% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 15 | 5 | - 5 | - 20 | - 400.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 40 | - 25 | - 30 | - 15 | - 60.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 80 | - 70 | - 75 | - 10 | - 14.29% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - | 19 | 24 | - | - | dollars/ton | | SHFE | 78,630 | 77,890 | 78,070 | 740 | 0.95% | yuan/ton | | LME | - | 9,625 | 9,502 | - | - | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,069 | 29,157 | 20,084 | 20,912 | 71.72% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 185,575 | 189,650 | 190,750 | - 4,075 | - 2.15% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | - | 165,112 | 163,458 | - | - | short tons | [8] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - In May 2025, the expected operating rate of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises is 43.62%, a 0.70 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, mainly affected by the shortage of recycled copper raw materials [9]. - In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.37%, a 2.80 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The operating rate of scrap - produced enterprises was 44.32%, a 5.33 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month [9]. - The 19.8 - million - ton/year engineering design project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine was signed, with an estimated reserve of about 9 billion tons and a total investment of about 5 billion yuan, involving the mining and beneficiation of non - ferrous metals such as copper and molybdenum [9]. - Dianzhong Non - ferrous and Chinalco Environmental Protection signed a recycled copper resource supply contract, achieving cross - regional circulation and the establishment of a recycling system, and enhancing resource security capabilities [9]. - In March 2023, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons; the production of Escondida Copper Mine increased by 18.9% to 120,600 tons, and the production of Collahuasi Copper Mine decreased by 29.3% to 35,200 tons [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the copper price expected to move in a volatile manner. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory situation is neutral, the market trend is bullish, the main positions are bullish, and considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the copper price will mainly fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to recover; the situation is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 78,480, with a basis of - 460, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: On May 14, copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons to 185,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 8,602 tons to 80,705 tons compared to the previous week; the situation is neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the copper price will mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide has increased year - on - year. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.2%, a 2.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [4][39]. - Global refined copper supply and consumption are both weak, with an overall slight surplus in copper supply and demand. Chinese copper smelters' TC and RC continue to decline significantly, and Chinese refined copper production keeps growing with an expanding growth rate recently. The spread between refined and scrap copper is gradually narrowing. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but continued to grow year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued the positive trend [6][39]. - Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly, while COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [7][39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In early April, affected by US tariff policies, the price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract dropped significantly. As uncertainties were gradually released, the copper price rebounded and entered a volatile trend at the end of the month. The price range was about 71,140 - 78,480 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main Shanghai copper futures contract, with an operating range of about 8,105 - 9,479 US dollars/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Real - estate Data Continued to Stabilize - From January to March, national real - estate development investment was 1.9904 trillion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year decrease; residential investment was 1.5133 trillion yuan, a 9.0% decrease. Real - estate development enterprises' housing construction area, new construction area, completion area, new commercial housing sales area, and sales volume all showed varying degrees of decline, but the decline in sales area and volume narrowed [12][14]. 2.2 The Total Profit of Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size Nationwide Increased Year - on - Year - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 1.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit increased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 2.8%, and private enterprises' profit decreased by 0.3%. Profits in different industries showed different trends [18][19]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - In February 2025, global primary refined copper production was 1,822 thousand tons, recycled refined copper production was 378 thousand tons, and the total supply was 2,200 thousand tons, while consumption was 2,139 thousand tons, with an increase of 61 thousand tons. As of March 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous month and an 8.6% year - on - year increase. As of April 29, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaom was 78,090 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 71,700 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of - 780 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side 4.1 Copper Product Output Increased Year - on - Year - In March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, showing year - on - year growth. The monthly investment in power grid construction was 95.6 billion yuan, a 24.8% year - on - year increase [31]. 5. Inventory Side 5.1 Shanghai Copper Inventory Decreased Significantly - As of April 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,307 tons, a decrease of 27,446 tons from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, LME copper inventory was 202,800 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 35.26%. As of April 29, 2025, COMEX copper inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 2,615 tons from the previous trading day. As of April 28, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous week [35]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (real - estate market stabilization, industrial enterprise profit growth), supply (slight surplus of global refined copper, growing copper production), demand (accelerated power grid investment, year - on - year growth of copper product output), and inventory (significant decrease in Shanghai copper inventory) [38]. 6.2 Outlook - The real - estate market continued to stabilize, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased year - on - year. Manufacturing market demand declined. Global refined copper supply and consumption were weak, with a slight surplus. Chinese refined copper production continued to grow, and the refined - scrap copper spread gradually narrowed. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued to improve. Shanghai copper inventory decreased, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [39].