Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that MP Materials will receive significant investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to enhance the domestic production capacity of rare earth magnets and potentially raise the price ceiling for praseodymium and neodymium products [4][9] - Short-term impacts on the industry are expected to be limited due to the time required for MP Materials' expansion, with the new magnet manufacturing facility projected to be operational by 2028 [5] - The report indicates that the price floor set by the U.S. government for praseodymium and neodymium products is significantly higher than current domestic prices, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pricing [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices have declined due to tariff disturbances and seasonal demand weakness, with domestic consumption showing a slight increase as prices fall [6][14] - Aluminum prices have also decreased, influenced by external market conditions and reduced demand from the aluminum rod and plate sectors [20][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases attributed to renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][26] Minor Metals - The report notes stability in antimony prices, with a prevailing bullish sentiment despite limited market transactions [8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a fundamental recovery, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to the positive sentiment from MP Materials' investment [9][42] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the near term, with a projected trading range of 77,500 to 79,000 CNY/ton [15] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 20,300 to 21,000 CNY/ton [21] - Gold and silver prices are predicted to continue their wide-ranging adjustments, with gold expected to trade between 750 to 800 CNY/gram [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Caustic Soda - Recently, the short - driving force for caustic soda has significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected price drop of liquid chlorine. There is an increasing possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future. The short - term spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability may be limited [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, the overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared to June. The overhauls in July are mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled units in Shandong will gradually restart. Meanwhile, the new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction has good support, with a strong willingness to replenish at low prices. In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [5]. - In summary, affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation has been repaired under the condition of increased costs, but the space for continuous rebound may be limited. In the later stage, focus on the transmission impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, it can be treated bullishly [5]. - Strategy: Weiqiao slightly increased the price, and the market shifted from an 8 - 10 inverse spread to a positive spread, but considering the off - season demand and warehouse receipt factors, the space will be limited. If there are substantial production cuts on the supply side in the future, it is beneficial for the peak - season contracts. A 10 - 1 positive spread or selling put options can be considered [5]. For PVC - From a fundamental perspective, the profit of the current chlor - alkali integration in the Northwest is gradually declining, but there is still a small profit. Looking at the second half of the year, the driving force for production cuts on the supply side is insufficient, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. Therefore, the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage, but the short sentiment has weakened due to the rectification of the involution [6]. - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term: The overhaul volume of PVC is lower than that in the same period of 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. On the one hand, the chlor - alkali cost has declined. On the other hand, the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining relatively high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, which also increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. In addition, there will still be a lot of production capacity put into operation in the future, especially in June - July, facing the release of new production capacity, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - The pressure of high inventory persists, and the export demand can only relieve it periodically: In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duty increase and BIS certification. India's PVC import BIS policy may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Therefore, the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises' willingness to stock up is low [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,406 yuan/ton [9]. - The 09 basis of caustic soda has weakened, and the 8 - 10 month spread has strengthened [18]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of caustic soda was 1.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.8%. Among them, the cumulative export to Indonesia from January to May was 620,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.4%. It is expected that the export demand for caustic soda will continue to be good in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of traders and downstream customers. It is estimated that the export of caustic soda in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year, and the annual export may exceed 4 million tons [22]. - The export support for high - concentration caustic soda will be reflected in the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda. The willingness to replenish stocks in the export direction at FOB of 380 - 390 US dollars is strong [26]. - The spot price has continued to decline, and the stocking demand of traders in South China is weak, resulting in limited expansion of the arbitrage space [31]. - The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [35]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 80.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [38]. - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. This week, the storage - capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Except for the storage - capacity ratios in North China, Northeast China, and South China showing a downward trend, the storage - capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, East China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week [40]. - Pay attention to the overhaul scale from July to August. At the beginning of July, the overhaul capacity of large factories in Shandong was resumed [42]. - In 2025, there will still be a lot of production capacity for caustic soda to be put into operation, but considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity expansion may be less than expected. The capacity increase may be about 2%. Pay attention to the production capacity put into operation by Tianjin Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Bay Chemical from June to July [43][46]. - Liquid chlorine is stable, the price of caustic soda is falling, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in the past three years [47]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the operating rate of propylene oxide has rebounded, but the profit is still at a low level; the operating rate of epichlorohydrin has declined, and the glycerol - method profit is in a loss state; the operating rates of dichloromethane and trichloromethane have decreased month - on - month [52][58][63]. 3. Caustic Soda Demand - The operating rate of alumina has increased month - on - month, the inventory has increased, and the profit has declined. The alumina device has resumed production, and the output has increased. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production capacity put into operation can drive a new round of demand expansion. Pay attention to the production - capacity put - into - operation time of Weiqiao's 1 million tons, Wenfeng's third - line 1.6 million tons, and Guangxi Guangtou's 1 million tons [69][72][73]. - The pulp industry's production capacity continues to expand, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The operating rate of the finished - paper industry is lower than the same period last year [74][84]. - The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing have declined, and the short - term demand is weak [85]. - The operating rate of the water - treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [89][91]. - The caustic soda balance sheet shows different supply - demand differences under different demand scenarios and corresponding operating rates [96]. 4. PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis has strengthened, and the 9 - 1 month spread has fluctuated weakly [99]. 5. PVC Supply and Demand - The operating rate of PVC has decreased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. There will be more overhauls in the Northwest from July to August in 2025 [104][106]. - Currently, there is new production capacity in the PVC industry. By 2025, 2.1 million tons of production capacity will be put into operation, with more concentrated production - capacity releases in the second half of the year. Most of the ethylene - method production - capacity releases have a relatively high certainty. There will be concentrated production - capacity releases of PVC from June to July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [107]. - The profit of the integrated devices in the Northwest is acceptable. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry chain's practice of compensating for chlorine with alkali will be a long - term trend, which increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. The decline in coal prices has led to a decrease in costs, and the chlor - alkali integrated devices in the Northwest have always had profits in the first half of the year [109][112]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced their inventory, while the social inventory has increased. The operating rate of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month and is weaker than the same period last year [114][118]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 1.6985 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.07%. Among them, the export to India was 763,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.6%. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports. However, the later PVC exports may be affected by policies. The Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July, so the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed [125]. - The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [127].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a generally bearish outlook for the energy and chemical sector, indicating a weak stance towards the industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a weak outlook Overall, most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions based on fundamental and technical analyses [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, geopolitical premiums were quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory but has a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [2] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term oscillation, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated with reduced positions, and the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moved down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production remains at a high level, demand is weak in the off - season, inventory is neutral, and there is an expectation of a significant increase in production capacity with new plant launches in the medium term [7] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated intraday without changing the downward path. After a large gap reversal, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily focus on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased by 144% year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased significantly. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. The tire industry is in an overall oversupply situation, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a historical high. The downstream demand expectation remains pessimistic [9] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level decline. Today, it tested the resistance and then declined with reduced positions, still on a downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand expectation in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity put into operation for raw material butadiene plants this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber have reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, oscillating intraday without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily focused on 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] PX - Logic: Profit has been repaired, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [14] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, remaining in a downward structure after failing to break through the resistance. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of reduced production in the polyester industry in July, but the PTA operating rate has declined due to tight PX inventory. There are not many short - term fundamental contradictions [18] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, remaining in a downward structure after failing to break through the resistance. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly added production capacity has gradually increased recently, so the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak in the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it declined with reduced positions, continuing the weak trend. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 7290. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains high. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume production, and the import expectation is still strong. Supply is high, demand is weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline. Today, it declined with reduced positions without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearish [25] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it tested the resistance and then rose and fell. There is an opportunity to enter a short position on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The maintenance plants on the supply side will gradually resume production, and the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [28] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the short - term resistance is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28] Plastic - Logic: There is pressure from large - scale plant launches in the medium term, and the expectation of increased supply is large. The medium - term view is bearish [30] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level decline. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the resistance is temporarily focused on 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass shows a weak rebound due to the warming of commodity sentiment, but the medium - term demand contraction and industrial deflation persist, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak with no obvious driving force [1][4] - The overall logic of soda ash is a supply - demand surplus pattern, and a medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, although it is sensitive to policy and cost changes [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The weekly start - up rate of the float glass industry is 75.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [3] - One production line was cold - repaired this week, with a capacity of 700 tons per day. The daily output is 15.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%; the weekly output is 109.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [3] Demand - In the off - season, the shipment in various regions is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative purchasing demand is relatively weak [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% week - on - week to 69.887 million heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days are 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [3] Cost and Profit - The costs of glass made from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,138, 1,020, and 1,466 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 20, - 6, and - 7 yuan per ton [3] - The production profits are - 108.5, 83.7, and - 195.1 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 20, + 3, and - 12.3 yuan per ton [3] View and Strategy - The glass shows a weak repair market. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is no obvious driving force. Although the valuation is relatively low, considering the uncertainty of the off - season and limited positive driving forces, attention should be paid to the 1,045 pressure level [4] Soda Ash Supply - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.57%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The domestic soda ash output is 754,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97% [5] Demand - The sales - to - production ratio this week is 94.65%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%, but less than 100%. The downstream demand is average, mainly for on - demand procurement [5] - There is no new investment or cold - repair of production lines in photovoltaic glass, and the downstream orders are few. The performance of float glass is mediocre, with most processing plants having scattered orders [5] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,400 tons or 2.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 812,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory is 914,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,100 tons [5] Cost and Profit - The ammonia - soda production cost is 1,259 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan per ton. The combined - soda production cost is 1,591 yuan per ton (calculated at a ratio of 75% - 80%, it is 1,193 - 1,272 yuan per ton), with no week - on - week change [5] - The profit of the ammonia - soda method is 25.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan per ton; the profit of the combined - soda method is 99.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton [5] View and Strategy - Soda ash shows a relatively poor performance. With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried about over - supply. A medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 10 - day moving average pressure [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].