【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 苯乙烯小幅收跌，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，明年一季度处于 季淡季需求，产业适当参与套保。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that corn protein powder has entered a seasonal demand lull following the New Year holiday, leading to a slight price adjustment [1] - The domestic market experienced a brief concentrated procurement period before the New Year, but post-holiday, downstream market demand has weakened, resulting in decreased purchasing enthusiasm [1] - Since mid-December, the concentrated export period for corn protein powder has also come to an end, while the operating rate of the domestic corn deep processing industry remains high, further increasing market supply pressure [1] Group 2 - As of January 5, the market transaction price for 60% corn protein powder in Shandong is between 3840-4080 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day, although some factories have seen prices drop by 60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.47% [1] - Corn prices remain relatively high, providing some cost support for by-products, while the price fluctuations of soybean meal are limited, suggesting that corn by-product prices may experience slight weakness in the short term, with limited room for decline [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Alumina**: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - **Aluminum**: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - **Zinc**: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - **Nickel**: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - **Stainless Steel**: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - **Tin**: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene glycol: Stop profit on short positions [3] - Methanol: Cautiously go long with a light position [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainty and oversupply are pulling the oil price, which is oscillating weakly. The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The demand of various chemical products is weakening or has uncertain expectations, and the inventory situation varies, with some products facing high inventory pressure [1][9][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated weakly. WTI slightly rose by 0.23%, Brent decreased by 0.30%, and SC rose by 0.94% [8] - **Basic Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine geopolitics is developing towards relaxation, while the South American geopolitical uncertainty is rising. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with global and US crude oil and refined product inventories increasing [9] - **Fundamentals**: In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased to 7.1 million barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserves increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. The technical and short - cycle trends are weak. The strategy is to increase short positions. Pay attention to SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On December 17, the PG main contract closed at 4,212 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,410 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,398 (-10) yuan/ton, and 4,490 (+30) yuan/ton respectively [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short - term but is downward in the long - term. The supply and demand side shows that refinery operations are rising, the commodity volume is recovering, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. The inventory of refineries and ports has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. The cost - end rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The strategy is to hold short positions. Pay attention to PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L05 basis is - 96 yuan/ton, L15 is - 43 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 11,332 [19] - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weakening, and the sharp decline of North China's spot price has led to a significant weakening of the basis. The supply and demand are both weak. The parking ratio has slightly increased to 15%, and the LL weighted gross profit has been compressed to a low level. The supply is still sufficient. The peak season of shed film is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining rapidly. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, the price is at a low level, and some short positions can stop profit. In the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Pay attention to L in the range of [6350 - 6500] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP05 basis is - 80 yuan/ton, PP15 spread is - 77 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 10,534 [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts continue to be cancelled, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. In December, demand is entering the off - season, the parking ratio has dropped to 16%, and there are insufficient maintenance plans in the future. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions; in the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Short the MTO05. Pay attention to PP in the range of [6200 - 6300] [23] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V05 basis is - 280 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 113,074 [26] - **Basic Logic**: The operation rate and inventory have decreased slightly. The inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches is still at a high level, and the domestic and foreign demand is in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction of oversupply is difficult to ease, but the northwest self - supplied calcium carbide process devices are losing cash flow. Pay attention to the device dynamics [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, partially stop profit on long positions; in the long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction and try to go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to V in the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 price is 4,674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 4,610 yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively low. Domestic devices are under planned maintenance with a large intensity. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The cost - end support is weakening. The short - term supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA01 is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for TA05. Pay attention to TA05 in the range of [4670 - 4850] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 price is 3,627 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 3,602 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The inventory is expected to accumulate in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver. It fluctuates in the short - term following the cost [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop profit on short positions; pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to EG05 in the range of [3725 - 3785] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Taicang spot price is slightly stronger, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [36] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device operating rate has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have decreased their loads. The import volume in December is estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand has slightly weakened. The cost - end support is weakening [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to MA05 in the range of [2145 - 2185] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: Shandong small - particle urea basis is 85 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output of urea is as high as 199,000 tons. By mid - to late December, the supply pressure is expected to ease. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The factory inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. The export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There is a ceiling and a floor for the urea price. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously chase up, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for UR05. Pay attention to UR05 in the range of [1670 - 1710] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.024 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.55% month - on - month [44] - **Basic Logic**: The demand has entered the peak consumption season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the support for gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support during the peak consumption season, but gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Pay attention to NG in the range of [3.762 - 4.174] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 18, the BU main contract closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, down 1.99% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak. The South American geopolitical uncertainty is the main disturbing factor recently, causing a price rebound [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and there is still about 100 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially stop profit on short positions. Pay attention to BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 basis is - 32 yuan/ton, FG15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 1,244 [51] - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the factory inventory has ended a three - week decline. High inventory restricts the rebound space. The daily melting volume is stable at 155,000 tons. The profits of the three processes have turned negative. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and the deep - processing orders are weakening [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on some short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to FG in the range of [1030 - 1080] [52] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, SA15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 4,332 [54] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has ended a five - week decline. Short - term supply pressure has been relieved by maintenance, but there is a plan to put into production a 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December. The long - term supply will remain loose. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the demand support is insufficient [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [1]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With port inventory depletion and high expected imports and potential port olefin plant maintenance, the fundamentals face pressure, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [2][3]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improving demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, and a seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation is improving. It is expected to bottom out in an oscillatory manner, and a low - price long - position strategy is recommended [5][6][7]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, and a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [9][10]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. A strategy of narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [16][17]. - For polypropylene, in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [18][19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply may increase and demand may decline in the future. A long - position strategy on expected trading on dips is recommended [23][24]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand situation. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Inventory Changes**: Diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a 10.91% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a 12.62% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a 3.88% increase. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a 3.63% decline [1]. - **Price Changes**: INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.27% decline, to 426.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.84% increase, to 2415.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 36.00 yuan/ton, a 1.22% decline, to 2905.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu decreased by 3 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 2156 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 217 yuan [2]. - **Market Situation**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. Port inventory is depleted, but with high expected imports and potential port olefin plant maintenance, the fundamentals face pressure [3]. Urea - **Price Changes**: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1646 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was 24 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved due to reserves and compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand situation is improving [6][7]. Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 150 yuan to 14600 yuan; STR20 increased by 20 dollars to 1835 dollars; STR20 mixed increased by 20 dollars to 1830 dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 350 yuan to 7800 yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China increased by 200 yuan to 10500 yuan [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is positive, and prices are oscillating higher. Low inventory and winter - storage demand are bullish factors, but there are also bearish views due to uncertain demand [9]. PVC - **Price Changes**: The PVC05 contract rose 11 yuan to 4680 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 30 yuan to 4400 yuan/ton. The basis was - 23 yuan (+6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 127 yuan (-6 yuan) [10]. - **Market Situation**: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, supply exceeds demand [10][12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The basis of pure benzene expanded, and the basis of styrene strengthened [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Price Changes**: The main futures contract fell 64 yuan/ton to 6479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 6555 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan (+54 yuan) [16]. - **Market Situation**: The PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. A strategy of narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [16][17]. Polypropylene - **Price Changes**: The main futures contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6285 yuan/ton. The basis was 31 yuan (+2 yuan) [18]. - **Market Situation**: In a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [18][19]. PX - **Price Changes**: The PX03 contract rose 28 yuan to 6772 yuan, and PX CFR rose 7 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 8 yuan (+22 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was 30 yuan (+2 yuan) [21]. - **Market Situation**: PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended [21][22]. PTA - **Price Changes**: The PTA05 contract rose 16 yuan to 4684 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 15 yuan to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (+3 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 58 yuan (+8 yuan) [23]. - **Market Situation**: The supply may increase and demand may decline in the future. A long - position strategy on expected trading on dips is recommended [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price Changes**: The EG05 contract fell 30 yuan to 3758 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 33 yuan to 3667 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (-5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 78 yuan (+10 yuan) [25]. - **Market Situation**: The industry needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand situation. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish stance on the energy and chemical industries, with specific ratings for each variety including "cautious short," "short consolidation," and "cautious pursuit of short" [1][3][7] 2. Report Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, geopolitical situations, and inventory levels. It concludes that most products face downward pressure due to factors like oversupply, weakening cost support, and seasonal demand changes [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core view: Cautious short. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the rebound of oil prices is bearish [1] - Main logic: Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and there is a seasonal supply surplus. OPEC+ is still in the expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production changes and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [430 - 440] [12] LPG - Core view: Cautious short. The downward trend of the cost - end (crude oil) and inventory accumulation have led to a weakening trend [1] - Main logic: The cost - end crude oil is in an adjustment phase with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience. However, inventory levels at ports and factories have increased month - on - month [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4100 - 4200] [16] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on device dynamics [17] - Main logic: Devices maintain high - level operations. Although there may be a short - term oversold rebound, the supply side is still sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. There is still pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6500 - 6650] [20] PP (Polypropylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on PDH device dynamics [21] - Main logic: The main contract is shifting, and weighted profit margins are compressed. In December, the demand side is entering the off - season, and the shutdown ratio has decreased. PDH profits are at a low level, and there is a lack of future maintenance plans, resulting in high inventory reduction pressure in the industry chain [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Consider long PP processing fees or short MTO05 for arbitrage. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6200 - 6350] [24] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core view: Short consolidation. Low - valuation support [25] - Main logic: There is a game between high - level operations and low profits. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are high and stable, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve without concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream. Recently, the prices of chlorine and alkali have both declined, and some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide method devices are losing cash flow [28] - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4250 - 4400] [28] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core view: Cautious short. Cost support is weakening, but the valuation is relatively low [29] - Main logic: The processing fees are generally low. Domestic devices are mainly under planned maintenance with a large - scale. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. The cost - end PX has been fluctuating weakly recently. There is no significant inventory pressure in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4550 - 4650] [31] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound and short. Supply - demand improvement vs. inventory accumulation expectation [32] - Main logic: The overall domestic operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of MEG is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [33] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on a rebound. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3615 - 3695] [34] Methanol - Core view: Oscillate weakly. The accelerated reduction of port inventory does not change the bearish fundamentals [35] - Main logic: The spot price in Taicang has weakened, and port inventory has decreased month - on - month. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high - level, and overseas devices have reduced their loads. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 1.3 million tons, and there is still supply - side pressure. The demand side has slightly weakened, and the cost support has weakened [37] - Strategy: The arrival volume in December is still high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The 05 contract of methanol oscillates weakly with limited downward space [39] Urea - Core view: Cautious short. Weak reality vs. strong expectation [40] - Main logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily output of urea is high, but the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets is not closed [41] - Strategy: Cautious short. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract. Pay attention to the price range of UR05 at [1655 - 1685] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: The supply shortage has eased, and the gas price has declined [44] - Main logic: The demand side has entered the peak consumption season, but the gas price has reached a high - level in recent years. Currently, the supply side is relatively abundant, putting downward pressure on the gas price [47] - Strategy: The demand side has support during the winter consumption season, but the high gas price and sufficient supply lead to downward pressure. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.021 - 4.406] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Oscillate within a range. Cost - end bearishness vs. South American geopolitical uncertainties [48] - Main logic: The price trend is mainly determined by the cost - end crude oil, which is weak. The supply - demand relationship is also weak. Recently, focus on the South American geopolitical situation [50] - Strategy: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially close short positions due to the increasing South American geopolitical uncertainties. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [51] Glass - Core view: The short trend continues. The supply reduction is insufficient [52] - Main logic: Both the futures and spot prices have declined, and the basis has strengthened. The daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of water release from a production line in South China this week. There are no new ignition production lines. The profits of various processes have recovered, and the supply is unlikely to be significantly reduced. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and downstream processing orders are at a low level compared to the same period, resulting in weak demand. Although the factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive months, the absolute inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is still high [55] - Strategy: Short - term moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [930 - 980] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Short consolidation. High - level cancellation of warehouse receipts [56] - Main logic: Warehouse receipts have been cancelled at a high - level. The factory inventory has decreased for five consecutive months but is still at a high level compared to the same period. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and there is a plan to put into operation a 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December, maintaining a loose supply pattern. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass remains at 244,000 tons, with insufficient demand support [59] - Strategy: Moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1080 - 1130] [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper prices are mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium has led the US to continuously attract non - US copper resources, and the Fed's actions have boosted market risk appetite. - Concerns about the tightness of the ore end persist, and the tightness may be transmitted to the smelting end. High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand. - In the future, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory and the tight ore end will limit the downside space of copper prices. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and the main support is at 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Domestic zinc mines are entering the production - reduction season, and the supply of refined zinc is gradually shifting from loose to tight. The export of zinc ingots has improved the market, and domestic spot zinc ingots remain at a premium. - The LME inventory has been accumulating, but the LME 0 - 3 premium remains high. The Fed's actions have boosted zinc prices. - In the future, the tightness of the ore end may lead to the tightness of zinc ingots. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and the change in refined zinc inventory, with the main support at 23,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has been digested, and there is limited further driving force after the valuation repair. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the nickel price is facing adjustment. - The spot nickel price has declined, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic social inventory pressure has increased. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 114,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has certain support from the supply and cost sides, but the off - season demand limits the upside space. - The nickel ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices have different trends. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, but the demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is limited. - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production reduction and the marginal improvement of demand [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and it is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply within the year will be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, especially in the new - energy - related fields. - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold long positions and consider buying on dips [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, with stable supply growth and peak demand. The inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the cost support has shifted downward. The short - term price may be volatile, and the reference range for the main contract is 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a high - level wide - range shock under the interweaving of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's policies and domestic inventory changes [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has remained high and volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the increase in the price of primary aluminum has increased the cost pressure on recycled aluminum plants. - The demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is restricted by strong costs and weak demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap - aluminum supply, downstream orders, and macro - sentiment [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has weakened under the pressure of cost decline expectations, significant demand decline expectations, and continuous inventory increase. - It is expected that the supply - demand situation in December will remain weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production decreases significantly, it may reach 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it may fall to 7,500 yuan/ton [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has shown a large - amplitude shock. Although the production has decreased, the demand has decreased more, resulting in an oversupply situation and continuous inventory accumulation. - After the registration of the platform company, the price may be strong under the influence of positive news. Pay attention to the substantial progress of capacity storage and production control. The futures price is strongly rising and at a large premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the production - reduction amplitude and price - decline pressure [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price center of lithium carbonate has moved up, and there are more news disturbances in the market. The fundamentals remain in a situation of both supply and demand being strong. - The downstream demand is relatively optimistic, but the sustainability of the improvement in the off - season demand at the end of the year needs to be noted. The social inventory is stably decreasing, but the off - balance - sheet implicit inventory may bring pressure. - In the short term, the market may maintain a strong shock, with the main reference range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,222 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium has decreased by 25 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,650 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium has increased by 30 yuan/ton. - The SMM wet - process copper price is 93,505 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The SMM wet - process copper premium has decreased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.05% from the previous month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume was 282,100 tons, down 15.61% from the previous month. - The import copper concentrate index is - 43.08 dollars/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 763,900 tons, up 1.83% from the previous week. - The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate is 64.54%, down 1.87% from the previous week. The recycled copper rod - making start - up rate is 9.15%, down 9.14% from the previous week [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,700 yuan/ton, up 2.55% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) price is 23,620 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the previous day. - The import loss is - 4,588 yuan/ton, down 320.15 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.39, down 0.06 from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc output was 595,200 tons, down 3.56% from the previous month. In October, the refined zinc import volume was 18,800 tons, down 16.94% from the previous month, and the export volume was 8,500 tons, up 243.79% from the previous month. - The galvanized start - up rate is 58.39%, up 0.19% from the previous week. The die - cast zinc alloy start - up rate is 49.56%, down 1.52% from the previous week. The zinc oxide start - up rate is 55.67%, down 0.78% from the previous week [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 118,200 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day. - The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 5,200 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day. The 1 imported nickel price is 116,000 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume is 9,741 tons, down 65.66% from the previous month. - The SHFE inventory is 44,677 tons, up 5.10% from the previous week. The social inventory is 58,970 tons, up 3.73% from the previous week. The bonded - area inventory is 2,200 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis difference between futures and spot is 405 yuan/ton, down 13.83% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) is 1.787 million tons, down 0.72% from the previous month. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (Qinglong) is 423,500 tons, up 0.36% from the previous month. - The stainless - steel import volume is 124,100 tons, up 3.18% from the previous month. The export volume is 358,100 tons, down 14.43% from the previous month. The net export volume is 234,000 tons, down 21.54% from the previous month [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price is 329,900 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 200.00% from the previous day. - The Yangtze River 1 tin price is 330,400 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 17 dollars/ton, down 22.73% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import volume was 11,632 tons, up 33.49% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin output in October was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% from the previous month. - The refined tin import volume in October was 526 tons, down 58.55% from the previous month. The export volume was 1,480 tons, down 15.33% from the previous month [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 22,050 yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. - The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 1,977 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, up 0.01 from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina output was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.44% from the previous month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6366 million tons, down 2.82% from the previous month. The overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.4992 million tons, down 3.50% from the previous month [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM East - China ADC12, South - China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 prices are all 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 682,000 tons, up 5.74% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 302,700 tons, up 5.84% from the previous month. The scrap - aluminum output was 876,000 tons, up 11.45% from the previous month [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of East - China SI4210 industrial silicon is also unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530 is 765 yuan/ton, down 16.39% from the previous day. The basis of SI4210 is 472 yuan/ton, down 26.55% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 401,700 tons, down 11.17% from the previous month. The Xinjiang industrial silicon output is 237,600 tons, up 0.83% from the previous month. The Yunnan and Sichuan industrial silicon outputs have decreased significantly [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52,300 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of N - type silicon is - 4,890 yuan, down 41.13% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon output in the week is 25,100 tons, down 2.71% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output is 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume is 14,000 tons, up 11.96% from the previous month, and the export volume is 15,000 tons, down 27.99% from the previous month [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1.10% from the previous day. - The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 83,030 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 77,530 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate output was 53,500 tons, up 3.35% from the previous month. The battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 70,300 tons, up 2.84% from the previous month. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate output was 25,050 tons, up 4.81% from the previous month. - In November, the lithium carbonate demand was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% from the previous month

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $57.60 per barrel, down $0.86 (1.47%) [3][15] - OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, with a total output of 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels from the previous month [3][15] - IEA revised down its forecast for global oil supply surplus for next year, now expecting a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous estimate of 4.09 million barrels per day [3][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton [4][16] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market remains under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [4][16] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton, with social inventory rate at 23.86%, down 0.56% week-on-week [5][17] - Winter storage prices for asphalt are expected to drop to near five-year lows, predicted to be between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [5][17] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton, while the NR main contract remained unchanged [6][17] - China's automotive production and sales reached historical highs in November, with production exceeding 3.53 million vehicles [6][17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4664 yuan per ton, up 1.04%, while EG2601 closed at 3599 yuan per ton, down 2.25% [8][18] - PX futures closed at 6816 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 1.04% [8][18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2105 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $241 to $245 per ton [9][19] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to slow unloading rates and limited demand for significant price increases [9][19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6150 to 6400 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][20] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high inventory pressure on downstream [10][20] PVC - PVC prices in East China saw slight adjustments, with prices for different grades ranging from 4300 to 4600 yuan per ton [11][21] - Domestic demand is expected to slow down as construction activities in the real estate sector decrease [11][21] Urea - Urea futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1638 yuan per ton, down 0.55% [12][23] - Supply levels have decreased recently, with daily production at 195,800 tons, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [12][23] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed slight declines, with the main contract closing at 1103 yuan per ton [13][24] - Supply levels have increased, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [13][24] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 956 yuan per ton, down 1.44% [14][24] - The market is experiencing stable demand but lacks strong driving factors, leading to low confidence in the industry [14][24]