野村东方国际证券：预计中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场 智通财经6月10日电，野村东方国际证券策略团队表示，考虑到国内强政策预期、亚太新兴市场在弱美 元及国际资金关注下更好的流动性环境，预计中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场。野村东方国际证 券认为，2025年下半年将是市场再度选择方向的重要节点。在此期间，市场的波动率可能出现放大。在 波动性上升的背景下，政策对成长行业的有力支持不容忽视，这可能促使市场将更多目光投向新兴高景 气成长领域。股息率稳定的红利股和细分科技成长行业将更适合下半年的市场环境。此外，内需消费和 科技行业可能仍有较大空间。 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 周报、月报 [Table_Title] 白酒短期承压，大众品关注高景气赛道 ——食品饮料行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 食品、饮料与烟草行业 2025 年 06 月 09 日 行情回顾 1）近 2 周（5.26-6.6），A 股食品饮料行业（SW）下跌 2.12%，跑输 上证指数 3.22pct，跑输深证成指 2.62pct，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.90pct。 2）细分行业方面，在 A 股食品饮料各细分行业（SW）中，近 2 周， 软饮料（+9.45%）、零食（+5.48%）、其他酒类（+4.98%）涨幅居前， 乳品（-3.81%）、白酒（-3.64%）、调味发酵品（-1.26%）跌幅居前。 3）个股方面，在 A 股食品饮料行业（SW）所有个股中，近 2 周，均 瑶健康（+72.44%）、海南椰岛（+20.26%）、妙可蓝多（+19.95%） 涨幅居前，五芳斋（-10.35%）、ST 加加（-6.92%）、山西汾酒（-5.41%） 跌幅居前。 食饮行业重点数据跟踪 1）白酒：根据同花顺 Ifind 数据 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 行业研究 OPEC+加速增产利好油运需求提升，美线景气度维持高位 ——交通运输行业周报第41期（20250526-20250601） 要点 OPEC+加速增产，有望进一步提振原油运输需求。本周 OPEC+作出连续第 三个月大幅增产决策，该组织同意连续第三个月将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/ 日，规模持平前两次增产。OPEC+曾经于 4 月、5 月宣布 5 月、6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日，为 3 月原定增产计划额的三倍。本轮 OPEC+增产的直接原因 是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦，此外，由于 当前油价已低于美国页岩油的边际成本，OPEC+的连续增产计划将起到打击 美国页岩油产量的作用，从而提升自身在全球原油市场的份额。考虑到沙特 对低油价表现出接受态度，OPEC+增产或持续加速，对油运需求形成利好。 此外，地缘政治方面，近期俄乌谈判再起波澜，西方对俄制裁风险上升，欧 盟正在讨论对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁，包括针对俄石油的相关措施、降低俄 石油和石油产品价格上限以及针对俄罗斯"影子舰队"船只的新限制措施。 我们认为今年以来对俄罗斯、伊朗"影子船队"制裁趋严， ...

Group 1 - The military industry ETF (512660) saw a net inflow of over 150 million yuan, driven by geopolitical conflicts that stimulate equipment demand and attract capital attention [1] - Global geopolitical dynamics are evolving rapidly, with the Ukraine crisis, Middle East turmoil, and increased European defense budgets continuously driving military trade market demand [1] - China is playing an increasingly important role in the global military trade system through technological breakthroughs and market adaptability, with a total cooperation agreement value of approximately 285.6 billion yuan signed at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow [1] Group 2 - Increased defense spending has become a necessity amid intensified great power competition, with domestic demand and foreign trade expected to drive high prosperity in the military industry, maintaining a long-term positive development trend [1] - Equipment exports are becoming a significant development direction for the industry, with foreign trade likely to open new growth avenues for the military sector [1] - The military industry ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which includes securities from major military groups and representative military enterprises, covering sub-industries such as aviation, aerospace, armaments, and shipbuilding [1]

每经编辑｜曾子建 消息面，今日央行宣布1年期LPR下调10个基点，降至3.00%；5年期LPR以上下调10个基点，降至 3.50%，为年内首次下调。华创证券指出，央行此举将降低企业融资成本，改善盈利预期，或推动股市 反弹。 此外，国家统计局重申，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变，各项宏观政策协同发力，各方面聚力攻 坚、积极应变，创新动能继续成长，经济持续回升具有较多有利条件。券商机构建议，关注内需复苏及 科技高景气领域等。同时，中美关税缓和，叠加中长期资金入市政策，有望进一步提振市场信心。 A500指数ETF（159351）跟踪中证A500指数，由各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只股票组成，行业 分布均衡，偏向大中盘风格，且新质生产力成分占比较高，为投资者配置A股代表性公司提供了工具。 场外投资者可以通过A500指数ETF联接基金（A类022453；C类022454）布局优质核心资产上行机遇。 5月20日，A股市场放量反弹。到收盘时，沪指报3380.48点，上涨0.38%。场内热门宽基标的A500指数 ETF（159351）结束调整迎来反弹，收盘涨幅达0.62%，小幅溢价0.01%。 盘面上，A500指数E ...

消息面上，军工板块几大利好消息扎堆释放，央视首次报道歼-10CE实战成果、备受关注的"九天"无人 机预计6月底完成首飞任务、第55届巴黎航展将于6月16日至22日举行，中国航空学会联合20家中方企业 参展，"中国力量"逐渐展露，军贸预期增强，现代战争中，空天威胁成为战争重点，航空航天板块是核 心受益方向。 国泰海通证券表示，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱 动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 截至2025年5月19日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。其中上证指数收涨0.00%，报3367.58点；深证成指收跌 0.08%，报10171.09点；创业板指收跌0.33%，报2032.76点。两市总成交额1.09万亿元。 ETF方面，截至收盘，航空航天ETF(159227)上涨0.71%，最新报价1.00元。收盘成交额已达2177.24万 元，暂居可比ETF1/2，换手率5.19%。 航空航天ETF（159227）：跟踪国证航天指数，指数高集中度覆盖中国军工领域核心公司，涵盖大飞 机、低空经济等新业态。指数申万一级行业中军工行业占比达99.2%，相较于中证军工、中证国防指 数， ...

Core Viewpoint - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) demonstrates strong growth momentum driven by its core strategies of "technological differentiation, product platformization, and global customer base," as evidenced by its impressive Q1 2025 financial results [1][14]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Shengmei Shanghai reported revenue of 1.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 246 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 207.21% [1]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items reached 248 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 194.14% [1]. - The revenue and net profit figures represent historical highs for the company in the same quarter [1]. Market Outlook - UBS forecasts Shengmei Shanghai's revenue to reach 7.05 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 20% expected from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - The company has built strong competitive barriers, and the Q1 2025 results are seen as the beginning of accelerated performance release, with expectations of entering a new high-growth phase [2]. Order Backlog and Cash Flow - Shengmei Shanghai's contract liabilities totaled 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.13%, indicating a robust order backlog [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to 93 million yuan, compared to a cash outflow of 155 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. Industry Context - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to recover, with a projected market size of 113 billion USD in 2024, growing by 6.4% year-on-year [6]. - China is the largest semiconductor equipment market, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing global growth [9]. Product Diversification and Platform Development - Shengmei Shanghai has successfully developed a diverse product portfolio, including cleaning equipment, electroplating equipment, and various semiconductor process equipment, positioning itself as a leading platform enterprise in the industry [10]. - The company has achieved significant market shares in cleaning and electroplating equipment, with international market shares of 8% and 8.2%, respectively [10]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and has begun mass production of several new technologies, including advanced packaging electroplating equipment and atomic layer deposition (ALD) systems [11][12]. Future Growth Potential - Shengmei Shanghai's platform development is expected to accelerate, with new products projected to become significant revenue contributors in the next two to three years [12]. - The company is poised for continued high growth as it capitalizes on the recovery of the semiconductor industry and its strong order backlog [14].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 市场震荡回暖，关注结构性机会 ——可转债周报 20250427 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周转债市场震荡走强，中证转债指数上涨 0.9%，日均成交额小幅扩张至 564.2 亿元，隐含波 动率升至 20%。个券层面，进入转股期个券中福新转债、振华转债等受正股提振涨幅居前，农 林牧渔、环保板块相关转债调整较多。一级市场方面，新增 3 只新券发行，交易所受理及之后 阶段的项目总规模达 554.8 亿元，需关注供给提升对转债市场流动性的改善。整体来看，权益 和转债市场短期或延续震荡轮动，结构性机会仍为主线，建议关注低溢价、高景气方向。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 市场震荡回暖，关注结构性机会 2] ——可转债周报 20250427 [Table_Summary2] 本周核心观点 本周 ...

医药板块 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩总结：创新药 高景气，多个细分板块或迎来拐点 20250508 摘要 • 2025 年 Q1 医药行业整体归母净利润下滑，但创新药、CXO（康德带 动）、医疗耗材及医院相关业务表现突出，国泰海通重点推荐创新药、 CXO、器械国产替代及部分消费医疗领域公司，维持恒瑞医药等增持评级， 并推荐药明生物和康德等 CXO 公司。 • 2025 年上半年上游产业受国产替代趋势驱动，百普赛斯和纳微等公司经 营出现拐点。自主可控政策、关税及国产性能提升推动品牌力和高性能公 司提高市场份额，稳定价格与毛利率，科思创、阿拉丁等企业值得关注。 • 疫苗板块受反腐压力及消费降级影响承压，智飞生物及万泰生物业绩增速 放缓，需关注应收账款问题。未来增长依赖创新品种如带状疱疹疫苗，以 及中国儒意出海机会。生物制品行业预计下半年业绩回升，龙头公司量价 逻辑依然有效，博雅收购天坛等寡头集中趋势明显。 • 中药板块受反腐影响严重，院内企业业绩下滑，但阿胶、明锐制药和白云 山保持增长。2025 年预计稳定增长，关注零售药店龙头及国企改革相关 企业如太极集团、昆药集团和东阿阿胶，中药材成本回落亦有助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for the small home appliance industry. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 16.8 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.08 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 8%, and 9% [1] - For Q4 2024, the figures were 4.1 billion, 270 million, and 290 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 11%, and 48% [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.8 billion, 250 million, and 250 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 10%, 43%, and 15% [1] Sales Performance - In 2024, revenue from kitchen appliances, home appliances, and other products was 11.5 billion, 2.9 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16%, 17%, and 7% [2] - For Q4 2024, external sales and internal sales were 13.2 billion and 3.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +22% and -4% [2] - In Q1 2025, external sales grew by 16% while internal sales declined by 5%, indicating strong overseas demand despite ongoing domestic market challenges [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 20.9% and 22.4%, with year-on-year changes of -1.83% and +0.5 percentage points [3] - The company managed to stabilize its expense ratios, with significant improvements in sales and management expense ratios in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 was 6.3%, 6.5%, and 6.4%, reflecting a notable increase in profitability in Q1 2025 [3] Investment Outlook - The company is a leading exporter in the small home appliance sector, with a strong customer base and scale advantages, actively expanding its customer and product categories [4] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.5 and 1.6 yuan, indicating a favorable valuation with PE ratios of 9.7 and 8.7 times [4]