Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[5] - The GDP deflator index is projected to be around -0.9% for Q2, compared to -0.8% in Q1[5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline widened from 3.3% to 3.6%, with production materials dropping by 4.4% year-on-year[35] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month[35] Group 3: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Actual inventory growth has increased from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[12] - The actual inventory growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing sectors has decreased significantly, impacting PPI positively when it approaches zero[13] - Among 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation data for June, highlighting the changes in CPI and PPI, and their implications for the economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and price pressures across various sectors [3][14][25]. Group 1: June Price Data Summary - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, indicating a slight improvement in inflation after four months of negative values [3][18]. - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a larger decline than the previous month's 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [3][25]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter is estimated to be around 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in the first quarter [3][16]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was driven by a narrowing decline in food and energy prices, with food prices improving from -0.4% to -0.3% and energy prices from -6.1% to -5.1% [18][19]. - The rental market saw a seasonal increase in demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, which is lower than the average increase of 0.25% during the same period from 2015 to 2019 [4][19]. - Medical service prices have risen for three consecutive months, indicating potential ongoing inflationary pressures in healthcare [4][27]. Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was influenced by seasonal price decreases in domestic raw materials and increased green energy supply, which reduced energy prices [5][26]. - Specific sectors such as coal and electricity production experienced significant price drops, contributing to the overall PPI decline [5][26]. - The article notes that industries with high export ratios are facing price pressures due to a slowdown in global trade, impacting PPI negatively [5][27]. Group 4: Inventory Perspective on PPI - The actual inventory levels in various industries are crucial for understanding PPI trends, with high inventory levels typically exerting downward pressure on prices [6][9]. - As of May, the actual inventory growth rate in the mining and manufacturing sectors has decreased, which historically correlates with a potential upturn in PPI [6][9]. - The current inventory pressure is slightly higher than last year but significantly lower than in the first half of 2015, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for some sectors [7][12].

Group 1 - The final annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP deflator for the United States in Q1 is 3.8, which is higher than the expected 3.7 and the initial value of 3.7 [1]

Group 1 - The final value of Japan's real GDP deflator for the first quarter is 3.3%, matching both the forecast and the initial value [1]

Group 1 - The final value of Japan's first quarter GDP deflator year-on-year is 3.3%, matching the expectations and previous value of 3.3% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the annualized quarter-on-quarter revision of the US GDP deflator for the first quarter is 3.7, which aligns with both the expectations and the initial value [1]

Group 1 - The external environment is a significant variable affecting China's macroeconomic trends, with uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and their global implications [1] - Domestic new growth drivers are accumulating, becoming the core strength for China's economy to navigate through cycles, while the real estate market has emerged from its low point, though uncertainties remain regarding its recovery timing [1] - A combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has quickly boosted domestic demand, but the effectiveness of extraordinary measures in countering debt-deflation and balance sheet contraction effects is still under observation [1] Group 2 - The direct impact of external environmental changes has not been as severe as anticipated, with actual market performance differing from many market participants' predictions [2] - China's export resilience to the U.S. has exceeded expectations, with limited decline in export growth despite high tariffs and a high base from the previous year [2] - The intensity of re-export trade has also surpassed expectations, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Latin America, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the U.S. [2] - Exports to countries and regions outside the U.S. and major re-export markets have shown unexpected growth, indicating that domestic exporters are actively seeking new markets [2] - The outcomes of tariff negotiations have also exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the overall trade environment [2]

Group 1 - The initial value of Japan's GDP deflator for the first quarter is 3.3%, exceeding the expected 3.20% and up from the previous value of 2.90% [1]

日本一季度实际GDP平减指数同比初值 3.3%，预期 3.2%，前值 2.9%。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 事 项 4月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.15%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同比下降2.7%，预期下 降2.8%，前值下降2.5% 。 报告摘要 一、4月CPI的结构性特征 本月CPI略高于我们的预期，或因没考虑到金价上涨的影响 。CPI同比和环比均较我们的预期高0.1个百分点，预期差在核心CPI。 据统计局解读，金饰品价格上涨10.1%，拉动CPI环比约0.06个百分点，据此推算，金饰品在CPI中的权重占比大约0.6%，对本月 核心CPI环比的拉动约0.1个百分点。 本月CPI项目环比上涨或好于季节性的：1） 受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服 务价格好于季节性。 2） 在供给减少等因素影响，食品价格上涨0.2%，好于季节性。比较明显的是，牛肉价格上涨3.9%，创2019 年10月以来最高（过去两年因供给扩张牛肉价格大幅下跌），在需求淡季下鲜菜和猪肉价格跌幅偏小。 3） 房租环比 ...