货币当局更新11月金融数据。 1) 社融新增24885亿，增速8.5%（前值8.5%） 2) 新增人民币贷款3900亿，增速6.4%（前值6.5%） 3) M2同比增长8.0%（前值8.2%），M1增速4.9%（前值6.2%） 核心观点 实体部门信贷超预期拉动下，社融降速放缓 十一月，社融新增24885亿，同比多增1597亿，超出wind平均预期。五大构成上，实体部门信贷、政府债、企业股票融资同比减少， 企业债融资、"非标"同比大幅多增。具体来看，当月企业债融资4169亿元（上年同期2381亿），其中产业债融资3784.77亿（上年同 期约2378.71亿），其贡献了企业债同比增幅的79%；"非标"融资2146亿（上年同期818亿），其中未贴现承兑汇票融资1490亿（上年 同期910亿），信托贷款844亿（上年同期91亿），委托贷款基本持平。同比少增部分，实体部门信贷同比少增1163亿，降幅较上月 明显收窄；政府债同比少增1048亿，主要受地方债的拖累。总体来看，当月社融新增超出市场平均预期，主要是实体部门信贷偏 强，其它项目则差距不大。 事件 十一月，在结构性工具的支持下，社融增速回落放缓，但趋势并未改变， ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 7 日 政策性工具起到信贷支撑作用 ——11 月金融数据预测 频率：每月 金融数据预测表 宏观点评报告 | 科目 | 2025 年 10 月 | 2025 年 11 月（预测） | | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 8161 | 21000 | | 社融增速 | 8.5% | 8.4% | | 信贷新增（亿） | 2200 | 2500 | | 信贷增速 | 6.5% | 6.4% | | M2增速 | 8.2% | 8.0% | | M1 增速 | 6.2% | 6.0% | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 十一月，预计人民币贷款新增 2500 亿，贷款增速约 6.4% 相关报告 1.开门红再现——1 月金融数据预 测 2.回归平静的信贷——2 月金融数 据预测 3.居民短贷超季节性多增——3 月 金融数据预测 4.票据融资或创新高——4 月金融 数据预测 5.社融增速或持平上月——5 月金 融数据预测 6.社融或同比多增——6 月金融数 据预测 7.社融增速年内达峰——7 月金融 数据预测 8.社融增速如期调整——8 ...

Group 1 - The monetary policy's counter-cyclical adjustment effects are gradually becoming evident, with reasonable growth in financial totals and low social financing costs [1] - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale reached 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans for the first ten months was 14.97 trillion yuan, with November's new RMB loans expected to be around 600 billion yuan, showing a seasonal rebound [1][2] Group 2 - The high票据利率 in mid-November indicates strong credit issuance, with expectations for November's票据融资增量 to remain high [2] - The total social financing for November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of about 1 billion yuan due to offsetting factors in government and corporate bond financing [2] - The broad money (M2) balance at the end of October was 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [3]

社融增速预计 8.5％，M1 增速保持相对高位 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年 11 月社融前瞻 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-03 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 12/24 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:海外银行业如何化 | 2025-12 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts 2025 November new loans to be 450 billion yuan and social financing increment to be 2.15 trillion yuan; at end - Nov, M2 to reach 337.2 trillion, YoY +8.1%, new - caliber M1 YoY +5.6%, and social financing growth rate to be 8.4% [1] - November new loans may be less than the same period last year due to weak credit demand and banks' low motivation for credit issuance; future new loans may also be less year - on - year [2] - November M1 growth rate may decline, and M2 growth rate may slightly decline month - on - month [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it may drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - December bond market is promising, and the report is bullish on the bond market [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Predicts 450 billion yuan in new loans in November 2025, with individual loans +5 billion, corporate loans +35 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans +5 billion; individual short - term loans - 5 billion, individual long - term loans +10 billion; corporate short - term loans +0 billion, corporate long - term loans +15 billion, and bill financing +20 billion [2] M1 and M2 - Predicts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of November to be 5.6%, with a slight month - on - month decline; the M2 growth rate at the end of November to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] Social Financing - Predicts 2.15 trillion yuan in social financing increment in November 2025, less than the same period in 2024; the growth rate at the end of November to be 8.4%, with a 0.1 - point month - on - month decline [2] Bond Market - Due to factors such as slow growth in bond fund scale and banks' and insurers' increased influence on bond market pricing, and considering factors like banks' lower liability costs and insurers' asset - liability duration gap, the report is bullish on the December bond market [2]

Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, falling short of the market expectation of 1.53 trillion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 220 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion RMB, also below market expectations by 240 billion RMB[2] Social Financing Contributions - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was primarily due to a reduction in government bond supply, contributing 560.2 billion RMB, and a decrease in RMB loans by 316.6 billion RMB[3] - Corporate bonds increased by 148.2 billion RMB year-on-year, while foreign currency loans and stock financing rose by 51 billion RMB and 41.2 billion RMB, respectively[3] Credit Market Insights - On the credit side, corporate bill financing was the main contributor, with corporate loans increasing by 220 billion RMB, and corporate bill financing rising by 331.2 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Residential short-term and long-term loans decreased by 335.6 billion RMB and 180 billion RMB, indicating a need for consumer spending stimulation[4] Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.0 percentage points to 6.2%, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by 770 billion RMB, while both resident and corporate deposits decreased by 770 billion RMB and 355.3 billion RMB, respectively[5] Market Strategy Outlook - The overall financial data indicates a decline, but the market is expected to maintain a bullish stance on bonds due to stable liquidity and year-end calendar effects[6] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell slightly to 1.8025% following the release of financial data, reflecting market adjustments[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.5%. The new social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate declined from 8.7% to 8.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of the new M1 caliber dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%. Overall, October is a small month for credit at the beginning of the quarter, mainly relying on on-balance-sheet bills to make up for the shortfall. Among them, short-term household loans are the main drag, and the "shopping festival" effect has limited driving force. In the fourth quarter, due to the high base of government bond issuance, the growth rate of social financing continues to decline. The M2 growth rate slightly declines, with non-bank deposits being the main supporting item, and the M1 growth rate ends its six-month upward trend [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Short-term Household Loans as the Main Drag, and Long-term Corporate Loans Weakening - **Household Sector**: In October, short-term household loans decreased by 286.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 335.6 billion yuan, continuing to be significantly lower than the seasonal level. Long-term household loans decreased by 70 billion yuan, recording a negative growth for the first time in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan. The month-on-month sprint effect of new and second-hand housing sales is not significant. Under the high base and policy stability, the overall sales performance is weaker than that in September [2][10]. - **Corporate Sector**: In October, long-term corporate loans only increased by 30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140 billion yuan. The relatively strong corporate loans at the end of September may have partially overdrawn the quota for October. Coupled with the limited driving force of policy-based financial instruments and the approach of the economic "off-season" at the end of the year, it is difficult for long-term corporate loans to have a significant increase. In terms of bills, bill financing increased by 500.6 billion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year increase of 331.2 billion yuan, and the demand for bills to "make up for the shortfall" significantly increased [2][15]. Social Financing: The Support of Government Bonds Declines at the End of the Year, and Entrusted Loans Increase - **Government Bonds**: The issuance of government bonds decreased in October, with new government bonds of 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan. In the fourth quarter, it enters the off-season for bond issuance. The net financing of government bonds from November to December may be 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing may decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][17]. - **Entrusted Loans and Undiscounted Bills**: Driven by the "500 billion" policy-based financial instruments, entrusted loans increased by 165.3 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 187.2 billion yuan, becoming an important supporting item for social financing. In addition, undiscounted bills decreased by 289.4 billion yuan in October, 149.8 billion yuan lower than the same period last year. Due to the relatively strong credit performance in September, the conversion of undiscounted bills to on-balance-sheet was limited. In October, banks' concentrated "ticket grabbing" in the secondary market led to a significant decrease in off-balance-sheet bills [3][23]. Deposits: High Growth of Non-bank Deposits, Possibly Driven by Both Wealth Management Growth and the Equity Market - **M1 and M2 - M1 Spread**: The month-on-month increase of the new M1 caliber was lower than that of the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 spread slightly widened. In October last year, there was a high base for M1. In October, the new M1 caliber decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, 1.0 trillion yuan more than the decrease in 2024. In terms of growth rate, the year-on-year reading of M1 decreased from 7.2% to 6.2% [4][27]. - **Non-bank Deposits and Household Deposits**: Among the M2 components, non-bank deposits increased significantly beyond the seasonal level again, while household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. By sector, non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan in October, 770 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan in the same month, 770 billion yuan more than the decrease in the same period last year. Since October, the equity market has continued to be strong, and the growth of wealth management product scale at the beginning of the quarter may jointly drive the decrease in household deposits and the significant increase in non-bank deposits [4][31].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Debt Market**: The focus is on the Chinese debt market, with predictions for financial data in October indicating a continued aggressive stance in the debt market [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Weak Credit Demand**: Anticipated new loans in October are expected to be negative, around 300 billion, a significant year-on-year decrease of 200 billion. This reflects insufficient corporate financing demand and local government debt control, posing challenges to economic recovery [1][2]. - **M1 Growth Pressure**: M1 growth is projected to decline month-on-month in October, primarily due to seasonal bank wealth management impacts and a low base from the previous year. A significant drop in M1 growth is expected in Q4 as the year-on-year base normalizes, indicating weakened corporate vitality [1][4]. - **Social Financing Growth Slowdown**: The expected social financing increment for October is 980 billion, a year-on-year decrease mainly from credit and net financing of government bonds. By year-end, social financing growth is predicted to fall to around 8.0% [1][5]. - **Real Estate Market Risks**: The real estate market continues to decline, with average housing prices dropping by 50%, potentially triggering financial risks. National banks are generally pessimistic about the economy due to poor performance across various sectors [1][6]. - **Optimism in Debt Market**: Non-bank institutions have shifted to a more optimistic view of the debt market, bolstered by central bank purchases of government bonds, leading to a belief that bond yields have reached a temporary bottom, with a bullish outlook for Q4 [1][8]. - **Banking Sector Dynamics**: The decline in bank funding costs has significantly enhanced their motivation to purchase local bonds. Major banks view local bonds as high cost-performance investments and are actively increasing their government bond investments [3][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Tools Impact**: The injection of 500 billion in policy tools has only partially alleviated local government fiscal pressures, with limited effects on overall credit demand and infrastructure investment growth [1][7]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for 2026 suggests increasing downward pressure, exacerbated by a real estate crisis and declining consumer subsidies, leading to lower consumption growth and excess inventory [1][10]. - **Long-term Interest Rate Trends**: The long-term downward trend in interest rates is expected to continue, with potential for the 10-year government bond yield to challenge 1.6% if the central bank lowers rates in December [1][13][17]. - **Market Reactions to Regulatory Changes**: New guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks may significantly impact the stock market, leading to a more cautious approach in fund management and potentially benefiting underweighted sectors [1][16][18]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the debt market is bullish for the upcoming months, driven by economic pressures, declining bank funding costs, and ongoing central bank policies. Investors are encouraged to increase their positions in government bonds and extend durations to capitalize on favorable market conditions [1][14][19][20].

Economic Growth and Structure - The core of macroeconomic policy for Q4 focuses on structure rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [1][10] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [7][10] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reflecting a shift from investment-driven growth to innovation and technology-driven growth [7][8] Investment and Consumption - New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, indicating a need for investment and consumption to be boosted [2][4] - The corporate sector saw new loans of 1.22 trillion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan, highlighting a decline in investment willingness [3][4] - Consumer loan growth remains weak, with short-term loans decreasing significantly, suggesting a need for improved consumer sentiment and housing market expectations [2][4] Trade and External Factors - External trade showed resilience, with exports growing by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, despite global economic uncertainties [9] - Factors contributing to the strong export performance include preemptive actions by foreign trade companies and growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar energy [9] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while core CPI rose by 1%, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [5][6] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices of precious metals and consumer goods, reflecting changes in market dynamics and consumer behavior [5][6]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]