Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 49.8% in September to 49% in October, falling below seasonal levels [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased from 50% in September to 50.1% in October, influenced by holiday scheduling and reduced working days [1][3] - The holiday scheduling disrupted industrial production and export readings in October, while consumption indicators received marginal support [1][3] Group 2 - Given that the PMI remains in a weak range, further counter-cyclical policies are crucial to boost manufacturing sentiment [1][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, except for a slight gain in the CSI 1000 Index, all other stock indices declined. The trading volume of the two markets decreased. The number of rising stocks in the two markets reached 3,759, with a rise - fall ratio of about 5:2, resulting in a situation where stocks rose but indices fell. The previously strong heavy - weight and technology stocks collectively pulled back, and sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and rare earths led the decline, dragging down the market index and the science - innovation sector. Meanwhile, low - level small and medium - cap stocks saw a compensatory rise. The manufacturing PMI in October unexpectedly declined, reflecting the current weak domestic supply and demand situation. The market expects the accelerated introduction of incremental policies. The volume - weighted average basis of index futures showed an inverse relationship with the index trend, indicating a game between long and short forces. In general, in the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to capital games. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for a slight gain in the CSI 1000 Index, all other stock indices declined. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 1.47%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1656.47 billion yuan. Index futures all declined with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in October was 49%. - The China Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October was 50.1% [3]. Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market Observation** - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 1.43%, - 1.13%, - 0.89%, and 0.02% respectively. - The trading volumes were 139,862 lots, 63,349 lots, 145,316 lots, and 253,282 lots respectively. - The trading volume changes compared to the previous period were 2,486 lots, - 600 lots, - 22,972 lots, and 4,629 lots respectively. - The open interests were 271,131 lots, 99,608 lots, 254,465 lots, and 362,383 lots respectively. - The open interest changes compared to the previous period were 397 lots, - 2,436 lots, - 5,746 lots, and - 6,696 lots respectively [4]. - **Spot Market Observation** - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.81% and - 1.14% respectively. - The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 2.42. - The trading volume of the two markets was 23,177.92 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1,038.84 billion yuan compared to the previous period [5].

Group 1 - The October PMI data will be released on October 31, with September's manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will take place from October 27 to 30 in Beijing, co-hosted by various government and financial regulatory bodies, focusing on "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development" [1] - Domestic oil prices are expected to see their ninth reduction of the year on October 27, with predictions indicating a decrease exceeding 50 yuan/ton, based on the latest international crude oil price trends [1] Group 2 - A "Super Central Bank Week" is approaching, with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan set to announce interest rate decisions on October 30, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The disclosure of Q3 financial reports for A-share listed companies will conclude next week, with 4,347 companies scheduled to release their reports from October 27 to 31 [1] - Over 480 billion yuan in market value of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with 41 stocks set to have their restrictions lifted [1] Group 3 - Three new stocks are set to be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28, with a subscription code for each [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 improved to 50.6%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production pace[4] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical threshold[4] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, while small enterprises saw a notable improvement of 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, remaining at the dividing line[5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, still in contraction territory[5] - The service sector's business activity index declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, influenced by the end of the summer season[5] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing[5] - Future manufacturing recovery depends on timely macro policy support and external environment stability[5]

Economic Overview - September PMI data indicates weak economic recovery momentum, with the manufacturing sector slightly rebounding but still in contraction at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weak service sector demand and increased employment pressure[2] - Overall composite PMI is at 50.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a mixed economic outlook[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing PMI shows a production index of 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion[2] - New orders index is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, but still indicates insufficient demand recovery[2] - Large enterprises report a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, highlighting significant structural differentiation[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - Non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, with a notable decline in new orders to 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a clear drop in demand[3] - Employment pressure is evident with the employment index at 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, suggesting challenges in workforce stability[3] - Business activity expectations remain optimistic at 55.7%, despite a slight decline, indicating potential for future demand recovery[3] Policy and Market Outlook - Short-term economic improvement is expected to rely heavily on policy support, with a new round of policy measures anticipated, including a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool aimed at supporting project capital[2] - Continuous monitoring of the upcoming October Politburo meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is crucial for insights into economic policy direction[2]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of recovery [1][7] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating it is at the critical point [1][7] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The production index for September is at 51.9%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, reaching a nearly six-month high, indicating active manufacturing production [2][8] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand [2][8] - The new export orders index is at 47.8%, increasing by 0.6 percentage points, but external demand remains low [2][8] - The major raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, decreasing by 0.9 percentage points, leading to a widening price scissors gap of 5 percentage points, the highest level this year [2][8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [3][9] - Specific sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating rapid growth [3][9] - However, sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, have dropped below the critical point due to the end of the summer effect [3][9] - The business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, consistently above 55.0% this year, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises [3][9] Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index is at 49.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [3][10] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among construction enterprises regarding market development [3][10] Overall Economic Outlook - The September PMI data indicates a continuation of economic recovery, albeit at a weak pace, with manufacturing improving but not yet entering the expansion zone, and non-manufacturing growth momentum weakening [3][10] - The report suggests that the actual year-on-year GDP growth for the third quarter may be below 5% [1][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the market quickly digested the expectations and entered a volatile phase. The technology sector remains the dominant theme in the market. As the long holiday approaches, there are structural rotations in some sectors [3]. - The strength of the stock market has suppressed the performance of ultra - long bonds, which are significantly weaker. The T2512 contract has support around 107.4 [3]. - The US government shutdown crisis has continued to escalate, causing precious metals to maintain a strong upward trend. Silver is expected to reach a new historical high [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap in the steel market is narrowing, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The decline in shipments, increase in hot metal production, and replenishment demand support the high - level volatile operation of iron ore prices [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: Driven by brokerage stocks, the equity index fluctuated upward. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on the MO2511 contract with a strike price around 6800 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the face of a strong stock market, ultra - long bonds are weak. It is recommended for investors to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to PMI data. Before the National Day holiday, consider buying straddle options to capture overseas market fluctuations, and later, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US government shutdown has boosted precious metals. Silver is expected to reach new highs, but the upward trend may moderate from October to November. It is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Container Freight (European Line)**: The EC market is weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts on dips [3]. Black Metals Sector - **Steel**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory pressure is low. Sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. - **Iron Ore**: High - level volatile operation is expected. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 750 - 830), and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but futures prices have fallen from highs. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1150 - 1300), and consider the arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coke producers are raising prices, but the upside may be limited. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1550 - 1750), and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine, copper prices remain high. Hold long positions and focus on the support level of 81000 - 81500 [3]. - **Alumina**: Weekly inventory accumulation continues, and cost support limits the downside. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's further production increase has raised market concerns, but geopolitical premiums provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and wait for opportunities to expand option spreads [3]. - **Urea**: High supply pressure persists, and demand support is weak before the holiday. The market center of gravity is shifting downwards. Go short at high levels, and consider narrowing option spreads after the implied volatility rises [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Palm oil in Malaysia rebounded, and soybean oil followed the upward trend of the external market. The main palm oil contract is expected to trade between 9200 - 9300 in the short term [3]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be abundant. Trade short on rebounds [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton harvest, supply pressure is increasing. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has rebounded and then declined. Observe the market cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: The trading atmosphere is weak, and rubber prices are trending downwards. Wait and see [3]. New Energy Sector - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Wait and see for now [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the market has strengthened. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the industrial steel market is expected to improve in September due to seasonal demand and weakened production expectations on the supply side, leading to a potential upward price trend [1][2] Group 2 - The steel industry PMI for September is reported at 49.80%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the 50% threshold [1] - The production index on the supply side dropped from 51.90% to 48.00%, reflecting a decline in production enthusiasm [1] - The finished product inventory index increased, suggesting a rise in overall inventory levels [1] - New export orders increased to 50.40%, up by 4.30 percentage points, indicating a positive export situation [1] - The new order index fell to 49.70%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points, showing a slight weakening in the overall steel market supply-demand situation [1] - Raw material inventory and procurement indices saw significant increases, indicating rising cost pressures due to higher prices of raw materials like coke [1] Group 3 - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.40%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight strengthening in the overall manufacturing sector [1] - The production index for the manufacturing sector was at 50.80%, an increase of 0.30 percentage points, remaining above the 50% threshold, suggesting continued growth in demand for upstream raw materials like steel [2] - The new order index for manufacturing was at 49.50%, showing a slight increase but still below the 50% mark, indicating a reduction in new orders [2] - The procurement volume index reached 50.40%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in manufacturing production and procurement [2] - The overall steel production enthusiasm is declining, but the production of rebar and other construction steel remains relatively high, while industrial steel output is expected to decrease in September [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In August, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating a marginal recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index also increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%[4] - The production index reached 50.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, indicating active manufacturing activities[4] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The main raw materials purchase price index and the factory price index increased by 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, marking three consecutive months of recovery[7] - The "anti-involution" policy has significantly boosted the factory price index in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, with indices rising above the threshold line[2] - However, demand weakness may hinder overall performance in the manufacturing supply chain, as evidenced by a decline in new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, remaining in the expansion zone[9] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand[9] - The construction sector's PMI fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, indicating a contraction in construction activity[13]