商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铜：美元承压，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,920 | -0.52% | 91830 | -0.10% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,619 | -0.57% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 392,295 | -167,901 | 609,616 | -20,649 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 19,885 | -3,296 | 351,000 | -435 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 45,784 | 3,558 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 165,875 | 0 | 39.43% | 0.00% | | ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日，德国10年期国债收益率在PMI数据公布后降至2.841%，此前为2.853%。 ...

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（11月28日）资金面维持宽松态势，主要资金价格低位持稳，当日央行净回笼737亿元。本周一 资金面平稳宽松，资金利率变动不大，当日央行净回笼2311亿元。本周二资金面延续平稳宽松，资金利 率小幅下行，当日央行净回笼1458亿元。本周三资金面延续平稳宽松，资金利率变化不大，当日央行净 回笼1340亿元。本周四尽管央行连日净回笼，但资金面延续宽松，资金利率变化不大，当日央行回笼 1756亿元。本周四（12月4日）相较于上周五，DR001收平于1.30%，DR007下行3bp收于 1.44%。 海外方面，日本央行行长植田和男表示，实际利率非常低，如果对经济活动和物价的预测成为现实，日 本央行将根据经济和物价的改善情况继续提高政策利率；日本央行认为，海外经济体将在关税政策的影 响下暂时放缓，这一观点没有改变，即使政策利率上调，宽松的金融环境仍将维持，在宽松金融环境下 加息是朝着实现经济稳定增长和物价稳定的目标，适时松开油门的过程，而非对经济活动踩刹车；在12 月的会议上，日本央行将基于各类数据，审视并讨论国内外经济活动和物价情况，以及市场动态，并权 衡加息的利弊。美国 ...

Group 1 - Trump's announcement of the next Federal Reserve chairperson has caused significant speculation in the capital markets, especially given that current chair Jerome Powell's term does not end until May 15, 2026 [2][3] - The timing of Trump's announcement is seen as a strategic move to influence market expectations regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4][5] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased dramatically, rising from 44% in mid-November to nearly 87% for a 25 basis point cut by December [10][11] Group 2 - The November PMI data indicates a mixed economic outlook, with a composite PMI of 49.7%, marking the first drop below the 50% threshold in 2023 [12][18] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2%, driven by a strong new orders index, while high-tech sectors maintained a PMI above 50% [15][19] - The economic performance in November occurred without significant policy stimulus, contrasting with previous years where substantial economic measures were common [20][21] Group 3 - December is typically a period for policy announcements, but this year may differ due to the already achieved GDP growth target of 5.2% for the first three quarters [22][23] - The likelihood of major stimulus policies being introduced in December is lower, as the government may reserve significant measures for the following year [21][23] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December is expected to clarify the policy direction for the remainder of the year [21][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector has its own market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks. Overall, different sectors are expected to show different trends such as upward, downward, or sideways movements, and specific investment strategies are recommended for each sector [2][9][46]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%. The four major stock index futures contracts also recovered, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired. The market was influenced by domestic economic data and overseas news. Short - term operations suggest light - selling December put options and building long - spread positions on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined. The market was affected by factors such as capital conditions, PMI data, and rumors of new regulations on fund redemption fees. Short - term operations suggest waiting for incremental information to choose a direction and focusing on certain strategies for futures - cash operations [6][8]. Precious Metals - The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, the Japanese central bank hinted at a possible interest rate hike, and there were positive signals for the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. Gold and platinum - palladium prices were relatively stable, while silver showed strong performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Specific strategies are recommended for different precious metals [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - As of December 1, the SCFIS European Line Index and the US West Route Index both declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different trends. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, but the spot market was weak. Short - term operations suggest a downward trend [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rose again due to concerns about supply shortages. The spot price increased, and the discount of the premium decreased. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand showed strong resilience. In the short - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, and the market showed a positive feedback in the domestic fundamentals. The downstream procurement willingness increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21400 - 22000 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum was tight. The demand showed resilience, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, and the supply was expected to decrease. The demand showed a structural improvement, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The demand in South China showed resilience, while that in East China was weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and a strategy of holding existing long positions and buying on dips is recommended [29][33]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased slightly, and the production was expected to decrease slightly but still remained at a high level. The demand showed different trends in different sectors, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable, and the supply pressure remained high. The demand was weak, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [36][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price increased, and the supply continued to increase. The demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][43]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to be in excess in December. The demand weakened, and the inventory increased. The futures price may face pressure, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money put options is recommended [43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. The demand was not optimistic, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [46][47]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price strengthened, and the cost and profit situation improved slightly. The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand showed different trends in different structures. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and strategies such as long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage are recommended [46][48][50]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some aspects and decreased in others, and the demand was supported. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a strong - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 750 - 820 [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply was affected by factors such as mine shutdowns, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [53][55]. - **Coke**: The spot price was reduced, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply increased due to the improvement of coking profits, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was zero. The market lacked clear guidance, and the price is expected to be in a sideways trend [60][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price rebounded, and the profit of pig - raising decreased. The supply and demand were basically balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend. A strategy of holding short - term and long - term spread positions is recommended [62][63]. - **Corn**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply was slightly tight. The demand showed different characteristics in different sectors. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply [64][65]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic sugar price was in a bottom - sideways trend. The supply in Brazil increased, and the new sugar in Guangxi entered the market. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [66]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was in a bottom - sideways trend, and the domestic cotton price was in a range - sideways trend. The US cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton faced hedging pressure but also had support. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong - sideways trend [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the supply decreased. The demand showed different trends in different links. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [70][71]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil rose, influenced by factors such as overseas market trends and supply - demand conditions. The price of palm oil is expected to be in a sideways - downward trend, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be affected by factors such as bio - fuel policies and Chinese procurement [72][73]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price in the production area weakened, and the supply pressure was significant. The demand was not improved significantly. The price is expected to be in a low - level weak - sideways trend [75][76]. - **Apples**: The spot price in the production area was stable, and the trading was slow. The demand for stored apples was general. The price is expected to be in a slow - trading state [77]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The spot price rose, and the profit increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased. The price is expected to be strongly supported in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [77][79]. - **PTA**: The spot price increased, and the profit situation improved. The supply and demand situation changed, with the supply increasing and the demand having certain support. The price is expected to be in a high - level sideways trend, and a positive - spread strategy for different contracts is recommended [80][82]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply remained high, and the demand weakened seasonally. The price is expected to be supported in the short - term, but the processing fee is expected to be compressed [83][84]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [85][86]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand situation was loose. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 3800 - 4000 [87]. - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price was in a range - sideways trend, and the supply was expected to be loose. The demand was supported limitedly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [88][89]. - **Styrene**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. The upward driving force was insufficient. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6300 - 6600 [90][91]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price changed little, and the supply increased while the demand decreased slightly. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6700 - 7000 [92]. - **PP**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply and demand both increased. The inventory increased slightly, but the pressure was relieved by unexpected shutdowns. The price is expected to have limited downward space, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [93]. - **Methanol**: The spot price strengthened, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some areas and decreased in others, and the demand was supported by factors such as winter fuel demand. A specific strategy for MTO contracts is recommended [93][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were under pressure. The price is expected to be in a weak - downward trend [94][95]. - **PVC**: The spot price was in a stalemate, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The price is expected to be in a bottom - weakening trend [96][97]. - **Soda Ash**: The production increased after a decline, and the price was in a sideways trend. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend. A strategy of waiting for rebounds and short - selling is recommended [98][99]. - **Glass**: The production and sales decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [98][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials fell, and the supply increased seasonally. The demand was weak in some aspects. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 15000 - 15500 [100][103]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were not strongly supported. The cost was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [103][106].

晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 11 月 30 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，11 月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.2%、49.5%和 49.7%。 2、点评： （1）制造业景气水平有所回升，产需两端纷纷改善。具体而言，11 月生产节奏有所 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is at 49.2%, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone [6][7] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely driven by the upcoming holiday shopping season [6][7] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability at the threshold level [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - Manufacturing purchasing and inventory intentions are still in the contraction zone, suggesting a need for further improvement in procurement sentiment [6][7] - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [6][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 13146.72 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led with increases of 2.85% and 2.81%, respectively, while agriculture and forestry sectors saw declines [4] Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector's price index showed a recovery in November, with the main raw material purchase price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of activity [7] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries are sensitive to downstream fixed asset investments, with some signs of demand recovery in November [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the manufacturing PMI in November, highlighting improvements in export orders and construction sector indicators, suggesting a positive trend in economic activity [2][4][12]. Group 1: Changes in Exports and Construction Chain - Export orders index rose to 47.6% in November, up from 45.9% in the previous month, indicating a 1.7% increase, with overall new orders index at 49.2%, up 0.4% [5][12]. - The construction sector shows improvement in expectations, employment, and orders, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising to 57.9%, the highest since April 2024 [6][16]. - New orders index for construction was 46.1% in November, better than 43.5% in the same month last year, indicating a consistent improvement since September [7][16]. Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in October, with the production index at 50.0%, indicating a recovery [2][26]. - The new export orders index was 47.6%, reflecting a positive trend in external demand, while the employment index was at 48.4%, showing slight improvement [3][26]. - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a mixed outlook for overall economic activity [29].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DROO1 closed at 1.30 with a -0.81 bp change, DR007 at 1.47 with a 2.04 bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 16.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a 1.00 bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year国债 at 1.40 with a -0.81 bp change, 5 - year国债 at 1.62 with a -0.95 bp change, 10 - year国债 at 1.84 with a -1.04 bp change, and 10 - year美债 at 4.02 with a 2.00 bp change [4] - **Bond Market**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 164.2 billion yuan. Also, 900 billion yuan of MLF and 300 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, while the central bank carried out 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders [4] - **This Week's Central Bank Operations**: This week, 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 338.7 billion, 302.1 billion, 213.3 billion, 356.4 billion, and 301.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] 2. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4527 with a 0.25% change, the SSE 50 at 2970 with a -0.09% change, the CSI 500 at 7032 with a 1.15% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7334 with a 1.06% change. For futures, IF当月 closed at 4506 with a 0.3% change, IH当月 at 2963 with no change, IC当月 at 6974 with a 1.1% change, and IM当月 at 7261 with a 1.1% change [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: IF trading volume was 90267 with a -10.5% change and open interest was 258622 with a -2.1% change; IH trading volume was 38726 with a -8.9% change and open interest was 89179 with a -3.4% change; IC trading volume was 106633 with a -5.6% change and open interest was 248680 with a -2.3% change; IM trading volume was 174822 with a -4.7% change and open interest was 359979 with a -1.1% change [6] - **Last Week's Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4526.7, the SSE 50 rose 0.47% to 2969.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.14% to 7031.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 3.77% to 7334.2. Most Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with communication (8.7%), electronics (6%), comprehensive (4.4%), media (4.2%), and light manufacturing (4.2%) leading the gains, while only banking (-0.6%) and transportation (-0.5%) declined. A - share daily trading volumes were 1584.3 billion, 1652.7 billion, 1615.8 billion, 1537.7 billion, and 1435.2 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 134.74 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] 3. PMI Data and Market Outlook - **PMI Data**: China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2% (previous value 49%), with a slight repair in supply and demand, a significant increase in the export index, and the supply - demand gap narrowing to 0.8 pct. However, the non - manufacturing business activity index fell to the contraction range at 49.5% (previous value 50.1%) [7] - **Market Outlook**: The recent market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the further upward movement of stock indices next year. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the winning rate of long - term investments. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in mid - to late December, which will analyze the current economic situation and plan the economic work for 2026, providing key guidance for next year's policy focus and market capital layout [7] 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 8.85%, 6.19%, 3.98%, and 4.10% respectively [8] - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 4.15%, 2.67%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively [8] - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.67%, 12.54%, 10.88%, and 11.35% respectively [8] - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 19.23%, 15.74%, 13.94%, and 13.54% respectively [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].