Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Group 1 - China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30 in Sweden [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The new round of retail fuel price adjustments will take effect on July 29, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices down by 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year, respectively [1] Group 2 - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [2] - Major US tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, will report their latest earnings on July 30, while Apple and Amazon will do so on July 31 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]

Market Overview - The market opened mixed, with the Dow dropping -316 points (-0.70%) after a +500-point gain the previous day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw modest increases of +0.07% and +0.18% respectively [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell -1.3% [1] Services & Manufacturing PMI - The S&P Services PMI for July was reported at 55.2, exceeding expectations of 53.2 and the previous month's 52.9, marking the highest level in 2025 [2] - In contrast, the S&P Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, below the anticipated 52.7 and the previous month's 52.9, indicating a decline in new orders for the first time this year [3] Earnings Results - Intel reported Q2 earnings with a loss of -$0.10 per share, missing the expected +$0.01, while revenues were $12.9 billion, surpassing the consensus of $11.87 billion [4] - Intel's guidance for Q3 includes revenue expectations of $12.6-13.6 billion but forecasts earnings of $0.00 per share, down from the expected 2 cents, and announced a further -15% workforce reduction [5] - Deckers Outdoor exceeded earnings expectations with 93 cents per share against estimates of 68 cents, and revenues of $965 million, a +17% increase year-over-year [6] - Despite a +20% surge in shares post-announcement, Deckers' stock is still down approximately -40% year-to-date [7] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Durable Goods Orders for June are anticipated to show a negative swing, with estimates at -11%, following erratic behavior influenced by tariff policies [8] - Q2 earnings reports are expected from Phillips 66 and AutoNation, with major companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon set to report next week [9][10]

新华财经北京7月24日电（王姝睿）最新公布的PMI数据显示，英国央行可能面临就业市场疲软与物价 加速上涨的双重压力。 据标普全球周四公布，英国7月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）从6月的52.0点降至51.0点，略高于荣枯线 50.0，显示英国商业活动在7月仅录得微弱增长。而企业员工人数以五个月来最快的速度减少，调查中 的就业指标跌至45.1，为2月以来的最低点，部分企业将此归咎于英国财政大臣里夫斯决定从4月起提高 员工社会保障缴费。 市场目前更倾向于预计英国央行将在8月7日的会议上宣布降息，尽管6月通胀率升至3.6%，仍高于央行 2%的目标，但其重点在于就业市场放缓的迹象。荷兰国际集团经济学家James Smith也表示，英国央行 在8月的下一次政策会议上面临艰难抉择，降息仍是可能性更高的选项。 据路透7月17日至24日期间对经济学家进行的调查，英国经济今年和明年预计将保持缓慢且稳定的增长 步伐，英国央行8月和11月可能再次降息。英国今年的经济增速预期为1.1%，几乎与2月的预测一致， 2026年预计增速将略升至1.2%。德银英国首席经济学家Sanjay Raja表示，"一些明确迹象显示，英国经 济在增长动能稍 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，欧元区7月PMI数据显示，欧元区本月商业活动加速速度快于预期，受助于欧元区 主要服务业的稳健改善，以及制造业显示出进一步复苏迹象。欧元区7月综合PMI初值从上月的50.6点 升至51.0点，为11个月高位。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示，欧元区经济正逐步重拾 动能。制造业衰退即将结束，7月服务业增速小幅提升。制造业产出已连续五个月谨慎扩张，德国发挥 关键作用——其增长足以抵消法国疲软并有余。但欧元区制造业要实现长期稳健增长，法国工业必须企 稳回升，而当前巴黎的政治不确定性显然构成阻碍。 欧元区7月商业活动增长创11个月新高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued weakness in Germany's private sector growth as indicated by the July PMI data, particularly in manufacturing [1] - Manufacturing PMI remains below the neutral line, suggesting ongoing fragility in the sector, although manufacturing output has expanded for five consecutive months, indicating signs of recovery [1] - The services sector is no longer a drag on economic growth, with new business volumes in July experiencing their first increase in nearly a year after ten months of decline [1] Group 2 - The improvement in economic outlook aligns with expectations, driven by real wage growth and expansionary fiscal policies that are likely to support overall economic stabilization [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.34% [5][10] - The Hang Seng Large Cap Index decreased by 1.60%, while the Mid Cap Index rose by 1.93% and the Small Cap Index increased by 2.31% [5][10] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity with increases of 0.2 percentage points for the first two indices and 0.3 percentage points for the composite index compared to the previous month [6][9] - Experts noted that the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual growth targets [6][9] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on the high-tech manufacturing sector within the Hong Kong stock market due to the positive economic signals indicated by the PMI data [5][6] Market Data - As of July 4, the Hang Seng Index's current PE (TTM) was 10.41 times, approximately at the 55th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the PB was 1.13, at the 40th percentile [7][12] - The southbound capital inflow last week was 13.892 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's inflow of 14.489 billion HKD [7][14] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included SMIC at 2.279 billion HKD, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at 1.674 billion HKD, Meituan at 1.530 billion HKD, Innovent Biologics at 1.225 billion HKD, and China Construction Bank at 1.096 billion HKD [7][16] - The top five net sales included Alibaba at 6.998 billion HKD, Tencent at 2.015 billion HKD, Xiaomi at 1.274 billion HKD, CanSino Biologics at 0.641 billion HKD, and Pop Mart at 0.413 billion HKD [7][17]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing increased volatility due to changes in funding conditions around the quarter-end and a rebound in market risk appetite, despite a stable macroeconomic environment with insufficient internal momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows stable macroeconomic totals but weak internal demand, which continues to support the bond market, although the downward momentum for government bond yields is limited after reaching previous lows [1][4]. - The official manufacturing PMI showed slight recovery in June, primarily driven by the oil sector, but remains in contraction territory, indicating uncertain demand prospects [3][4]. - The construction PMI has rebounded significantly, supported by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating infrastructure investment [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, proposing 19 key measures and establishing a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund to stabilize consumer expectations [4][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize prices by promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with significant reductions in industries like solar, steel, and cement [4][5]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting removed the phrase "timely rate cuts," indicating a more flexible approach to policy implementation, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market is characterized by a "generally bullish but limited space" outlook, with continued easing of funding conditions supporting short-term bond market sentiment [7]. - The basic economic outlook is weakening due to declining external demand and persistent pressures on internal demand, leading to uncertainty in the economic recovery trend [7]. - While policies to expand consumption and counteract "involution" are being introduced, they primarily focus on existing measures with limited new initiatives, constraining the downward space for interest rates [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].