Core Viewpoint - The soybean futures market is experiencing fluctuations, influenced by various factors including favorable growing conditions for new season soybeans and weak demand from China [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main soybean futures are trading around 990 cents, with external market support lacking [1] - The latest report indicates that 69% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, the best level for this time of year in nearly five years [1] - Only 3% of the planting area is affected by drought, with soil moisture levels allowing for some flexibility [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - China has not initiated new season soybean purchases, maintaining a 23% tariff on imports, which contributes to weak demand for U.S. soybeans [1] - If no significant macroeconomic news emerges, the support level of 1000 cents may turn into a resistance level, with expectations of increased ending stocks for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently stronger than external prices, leading to a divergence in trends [1] - Recent transactions in domestic soybean meal exceeded 2 million tons in a single day, primarily for forward contracts, indicating concerns about future supply [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The USDA's upcoming report is anticipated to reveal potential bearish factors, with analysts projecting global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 127.42 million tons [1] - For the U.S. 2024/25 season, ending stocks are expected to be 347 million bushels, with a projected production of 4.365 billion bushels and a yield of 52.9 bushels per acre [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: With the repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to build long positions at low levels [2]. - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to good exports and the rise of US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may follow and rebound [2]. - Soybean: During the position transfer period, the market will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will operate weakly [2]. - Sugar: It is in an oscillation period [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate in a narrow range [2]. - Eggs: There is a rebound sentiment in the spot market [2]. - Pigs: The trading volume is poor, and the reverse spread strategy should be maintained [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,950 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.22%, and 9,012 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume decreased by 112,797 hands, and the open interest decreased by 27,119 hands. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil giant SD Guthrie Berhad expects the crude palm oil price to stabilize at around 4,000 ringgit per ton for the rest of the year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy [5][6]. Soybean oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,406 yuan/ton both during the day and at night, with no change. The trading volume increased by 51,881 hands, and the open interest decreased by 49,208 hands. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 264 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: As of July 31, 2025, the net increase in US soybean oil export sales was 0.7 million tons, meeting expectations [10]. Soybean meal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 3,031 yuan/ton during the day with an increase of 0.13%, and 3,036 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 0.53%. The trading volume of soybean meal in the main producing areas was 9.6 million tons per day, and the inventory was 97.76 million tons per week [15]. - **News**: On August 7, CBOT soybeans rose due to strong export sales data. As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 fiscal years exceeded expectations [17]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,267 yuan/ton during the day with an increase of 0.53%, and 2,260 yuan/ton at night with a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume decreased by 44,239 hands, and the open interest decreased by 37,908 hands. The spot price in Jinzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton [18]. - **News**: The northern corn collection price remained stable, and the Northeast enterprise corn price declined slightly [19]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.03 cents per pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,667 yuan/ton [21]. - **News**: Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress accelerated, and India's monsoon precipitation was higher than the long - period average. CAOC predicted the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 fiscal years [21][22]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,835 yuan/ton during the day with a decrease of 0.11%, and 13,825 yuan/ton at night with a decrease of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased by 52,459 hands, and the open interest decreased by 2,804 hands. The spot price of cotton in most regions changed slightly [25]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the ICE cotton futures fell due to the rising US dollar and weak new - crop exports [26][27]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,391 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 1.16%, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,576 yuan/500 kg with a decrease of 1.41%. The spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [32]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased. The closing prices of futures contracts such as LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 increased year - on - year. The trading volume of LH2509 decreased, while that of LH2511 increased. The market is under pressure, and the reverse - spread strategy is maintained [35][37]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of peanuts in major producing areas were mostly stable, with the price of Sudan refined peanuts increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The closing prices of PK510 and PK511 increased slightly. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increased [39]. - **News**: New peanuts in some areas are gradually on the market, and the current price is stable. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In May 2025, the price of soybean meal futures bottomed out and rebounded. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and as the North American production area enters a period sensitive to weather factors, the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, the market supply has significantly recovered, and the operating rate of oil mills has rebounded sharply. The inventory of soybean meal has reached an inflection point, and the basis of soybean meal has rapidly declined from a high level and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is accumulating. Although the phased strength of U.S. soybean futures will still boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited due to the large arrival of domestic soybeans, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review In May 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose by 1.38% to close at 2946, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal rose by 3.34% to close at 2571. In the international market, the continuous price of U.S. soybeans fell by 0.17% to close at 1042.25, and the price of U.S. soybean meal fell by 0.44% to close at 296.10 [6][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report on U.S. Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per unit is 52.5 bushels per acre, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%; the soybean production is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The estimated soybean crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply [18]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazilian soybean production; the import volume is 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; the crushing volume is 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; the export volume is 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; the global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons [7][21]. - **Other Data**: As of May 25, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 215,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 89,300 tons, and the inventory was at a historically low level. As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 84.37 yuan per head, and the profit was at a historically high level. As of April 2025, the feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the feed production was at a historically high level [25][27][28]. Cross - Variety Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 142.3 yuan per ton, and the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 39.4 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.57, and the ratio was at a historically high level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.89, and the price difference was - 331 yuan per ton [30][32][33]. Outlook The focus is on whether the export demand for U.S. soybeans can recover. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans, the supply has recovered, the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis of soybean meal has declined and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is increasing. Although the strength of U.S. soybean futures will boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions and trading strategies of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. The overall market shows different trends and characteristics, with short - term fluctuations and medium - term potential risks and opportunities [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, US soybeans closed slightly higher due to the easing of the trade war. Domestic soybean meal prices fell over the weekend due to increased开机率. MYSTEEL estimates that soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal planting progress, and the Brazilian soybean farmer sales progress is close to 60%. The USDA 25/26 new - crop report on Monday evening may bring some pressure to the beans [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The upcoming US soybean USDA monthly report may be bearish, but there may be an opportunity for the report to exhaust the bearish factors. Considering the low valuation, there may be a rebound space after the report. It is expected that US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: Malaysian palm oil exports are affected by US tariffs, and production increases, with high - frequency data indicating significant inventory accumulation in April. The US soybean oil industry association's request to significantly increase RVO will boost US soybean oil demand and valuation. Domestic spot basis fluctuates [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will suppress the valuation of oils. With the obvious recovery of palm oil production, there is a medium - term downward pressure on oils. However, the upcoming US RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oils sector, resulting in short - term fluctuations or a slightly bullish trend [10]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the September contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. According to data from Guangxi and Yunnan sugar industry associations, the sugar sales and inventory situations in April showed different trends in the two regions [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - volume delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in southern Brazil have eased the supply shortage. The raw sugar price may hit a new low in the second and third quarters. In China, due to reduced imports, the domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a greater possibility of a weakening price in the future as the import profit window re - opens [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to USDA data, US cotton export sales and shipments showed different trends in the week from April 24 to May 1. The USDA will release the monthly crop supply and demand report on May 12 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic cotton textile industry's consumption peak season has ended, and the downstream开机率 has declined. However, due to low imports, cotton inventory continues to decline slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and domestic inventory changes in the off - season [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with some local small increases. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, and most regions face supply pressure, while demand is mainly stable. There is some bottom - fishing behavior after the price drops to a low level [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is large. The egg futures and spot prices have fallen significantly. The spot price decline has slowed down, and there is a local small - scale rebound, but the sustainability remains to be observed. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rebound remains unchanged before the low price forces the large - scale culling of old hens [19]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic hog prices were mainly stable with some local small - scale increases or decreases. The demand side is stable, providing limited support for hog prices, while the supply is abundant [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot price fluctuates within a limited range, but the pressure accumulates due to the increase in hog weight. The futures market has partially reflected the bearish expectation, but the downward space is also limited due to the discount pattern. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the futures and spot prices rebound due to emotions such as hoarding, second - fattening, and stocking, and to remain on the sidelines or engage in short - term trading before the contradiction deepens [22].

Supply Side - The April USDA report did not adjust the supply from major producing countries, reducing supply pressure for U.S. soybeans [1] - Brazil and Argentina's soybean production expectations remain unchanged, with limited adjustment space for South American yields [1] - U.S. soybean planting has begun with favorable weather conditions, leading to a fast planting pace and potential for high yields, although later weather variability poses risks [1] Demand Side - April saw strong soybean meal transactions due to increased future soybean arrivals, leading to low channel inventories as downstream and traders delayed purchases [1] - Delays in soybean customs clearance in April resulted in tight soybean meal supply, driven by timing mismatches and essential demand [1] - Overall feed demand remains stable, with an increase in hog and egg-laying hen inventories, and significant year-on-year growth in feed production from January to March [1] Market Outlook - The spot basis for soybeans fluctuated significantly in April, with a sharp price drop expected after the May Day holiday as soybean customs clearance completes and oil mill operating rates recover [1] - Futures contracts are trading at discounts to spot prices, indicating increased supply expectations, which may limit the upside for soybean meal in the short term [1] - The market is advised to monitor U.S.-China trade negotiations, new season soybean planting, and the May USDA report for balance sheet forecasts [1] Strategy - For cash traders, the basis is expected to weaken in May [1] - For futures speculators, a narrow trading range is anticipated in the short term, with a bearish outlook for the July contract, neutral for the September contract, and cautious bullishness for the November and January contracts [1] - Key variables to watch include the May USDA report, U.S.-China negotiation developments, and new season soybean planting [1]