| 《》 国投期货 | 操作评级 | 能源日报 2025年05月14日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 文女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 文文文 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价延续中美关税超预期降级后的修复性反弹,日内S006合约上涨0.79%。需求现实层面同样具有韧性, 临近北美夏季出行旺季,美国汽油表需相对坚挺,加之部分炼厂装置检修的供应抚动,全球轻质馏分产品库存屡创 新低,海外汽油裂解、综合炼化利润迎来修复。上周美国API光油、精炼油库存均下降,原油库存超预期增加428.7 万桶。原油近期反弹势头有望延续,但考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增产周期,美伊核谈判、彼乌和谈亦均有乐观信号 释放. 她练绘和大背景 ...

同意增产的欧佩克成员国4月仅增产2.5万桶/日，计划为13.8万桶/日 今年4月，欧佩克+成员国谨慎地开始了人们期待已久的石油增产计划，此前该组织计划在未来几个月 更快地提高产量。欧佩克月报显示，同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了2.5万桶/日，远低于 计划的13.8万桶/日。4月标志着该联盟重启自2022年以来闲置的供应的长期拖延进程的开始。欧佩克 +最近决定加快5月和6月的供应增长，增幅是原定数量的三倍。沙特甚至警告说，未来几个月油价将进 一步飙升。布伦特原油期货上月跌至每桶60美元以下的四年低点，但随着贸易紧张局势缓解，周三在已 回升至66美元附近。根据欧佩克总部设在维也纳的秘书处的数据，沙特推动减产的努力正显示出一些初 步的成功迹象。 ...

020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： 能源化工丨日报 2025 年 05 月 14 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 Z0017388 中美关税下调，油价继续上涨 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 周二(5 月 13 日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油 2025 年 6 月期货结算价每桶 63.67 美元，比前一交易日上涨 1.72 美元，涨 幅 2.78%，交易区间 61.65-63.9 美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油 2025 年 7 月期货结算价每桶 66.63 美元，比前一交易日上涨 1.67 美元，涨 幅 2.57%，交易区间 64.63-66.81 美元。 二、中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美 方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关税；美 方暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关 税。 三、地缘风险弱化 近期关注美国与伊朗核谈判进展，如果对伊朗制裁缓解，石油出 口将增加。哈马斯声明表示，已准备好参与谈判，以达成全面、可持 续的停火 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏强 | 宏观面改善叠加旺季预期，油价短线偏强。中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风 | | | | 险偏好上升；美国制裁与伊朗有业务往来的部分船只与炼厂；OPEC+扩产，油价上行空 | | | | 间有限。SC【485-500】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 油价走强 VS 自身供需面偏空，液化气盘整。成本端原油带动有限，对美关税降低后，进 | | | | 口丙烷成本降低；自身基本面相对偏空，库存累库，下游开工下降。PG【4380-4410】 | | L | 反弹 | 终端塑料制品出口预期好转，油价反弹，短期减仓反弹；供需双弱，产业链累库，基差 | | | | 走弱，多单可逐步止盈，不建议追高。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。L【7200-7350】 | | PP | 反弹 | 短期跟随市场区间反弹，关税缓和，PDH 开工存上行预期，需求淡季，后续计划检修量 | | | | 偏少，基本面上行乏力，基差走弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7230】 | | PVC | 震荡 | ...

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].

印尼政策'卡脖子'叠加沙捞越州单产飙升，棕榈油'增产陷阱'会否触发抛售潮？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

今日燃油系期货均走强,LU表现强于FU。OPEC+增产背景下高硫燃料油面临供应端利空,且FU裂解估值已至高位亦 抑制炼厂原押雷求,基本面边际转弱下FU裂解面临高位回落压力;低硫燃料油估值相对偏低叠加船加油需求迎来季 节性提升,低硫燃料油现货贴水、月差均走强,预计LU单边走强偏强持续。裂解方面,考虑到海外渣油加氢产能与 国内配额充裕,中期来看LU裂解强势持续性有限。 【沥青】 沥青跟随原油上行,涨幅够小于原油。此前烧厂生产沥青利润大幅修复,中石油炼厂增产沥青,山东部分地炼相继 转产沥青,整体来看国内沥青供应增加。假期后市场备货需求热度有所消退,周废沥青出货量为34.3万吨，环比下 降9.5万吨。裁至5月12日,54家样本炼厂库存环比上升4万吨至92.1万吨;104家样本社会降环比下降1.4万吨至 190.3万吨,整体库存水平回升。油价反弹叠加沥青基本面阶段性转弱,BU裂解价差面临高位回落压力。 | 《》 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月13日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F030 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线）日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2506 | 1,466.2 | 216.4 | 17.31% | 81,997.0 | 123.10% | 37,399.0 | 1.39% | | EC2508 | 1,794.0 | 265.2 | 17.35% | 47,561.0 | 124.68% | 39,463.0 | 9.30% | | EC2510 | 1,481.6 | 220.8 | 17.51% | 19,564.0 | 349.33% | 17,820.0 | 7.39% | | EC2512 | 1,683. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand has improved slightly on a month - on - month basis, supply remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industry chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports the near - end spot price and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Due to the US pressure on Chinese refineries during the sanctions on Iran, concerns about overseas crude oil supply and domestic asphalt supply have increased. Coupled with positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, oil prices are strong in the short term, and asphalt prices have risen accordingly. In the medium and long term, with the expected continuous production increase of OPEC, the upward space for oil prices is limited. Currently, the supply - demand situation of asphalt is neutral, and the unilateral price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, while the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3300 and 3500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 12, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 0.81%, 0.99%, and 1.23% respectively compared to May 9. The prices of SC2506 and Brent first - line also rose by 2.10% and 2.47%. The main contract's position decreased by 2.27% to 10.8 million lots, and the trading volume decreased by 14.61% to 16.6 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,120 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis spreads of BU06 - 07, BU07 - 08, Shandong - main contract, and East China - main contract decreased by 30.00%, 29.63%, 29.06%, and 50.75% respectively. The South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.39%. The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 208.10% to - 112.88, and the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 20.18% to 342.09. The BU - SC cracking spread increased by 10.28% to - 452.65 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China remained unchanged, while the low - end price in South China increased by 0.60% to 3340. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased slightly, and the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price decreased by 0.04% [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 12, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3669 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. In the northern market, demand increased slightly, and the prices of Shandong's major refineries rose by 30 yuan/ton. In the southern market, driven by cost and controllable refinery inventories, prices in South China and the Yangtze River Delta rose by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3600 - 3730 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3570 - 3570 yuan/ton. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3350 - 3460 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, asphalt prices in Shandong will remain firm, those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China will remain stable. In the medium and long term, the unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high [5][6][7]. 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel [9][10][13]

原油：关税缓和及地缘紧张，油价反弹修复 正信期货原油周报 20250512 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 2 原油供应端分析 3 原油需求端分析 4 原油库存端分析 5 原油供需平衡总结 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kej ...