Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The gold market is affected by the escalation of the US - EU tariff war, with gold prices rising steadily and a recommendation to go long on gold. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. - In the base metals market, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short - term; alumina prices are likely to be weak and volatile; zinc and lead are recommended to be sold on rallies [2]. - In the industrial silicon market, the price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices is an option. For lithium carbonate, due to a decline in market risk appetite, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range; oils and fats are expected to be volatile; sugar futures are recommended to be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton is recommended to be observed; eggs and hogs' futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; PVC is recommended for a reverse spread strategy; methanol is expected to rise in the near future; glass is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and short - sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and short - sold at high prices in the medium - term; crude oil is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to buy glass and short - sell soda ash [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals rose. London gold exceeded $4600 per ounce, and London silver reached $93 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The US - EU tariff war has escalated. The EU will hold an emergency summit. German Chancellor Merz said the EU would respond cautiously. Powell will support Fed Governor Cook. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 2.2 tons. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1123.8 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 100.0 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained at 1085.7 tons. COMEX silver inventory remained at 13346 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 9.6 tons to 617.7 tons. iShares silver ETF holdings remained at 16073 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 161 tons to 612 tons last week. London's silver inventory increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons at the end of December. India imported about 750 tons of silver in November [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the escalation of the tariff war and the steady rise of gold prices, it is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.69% to 24090 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 3138 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the macro - sentiment being mixed and traditional aluminum demand being weak at high prices, the market sentiment has cooled slightly. It is expected that the price will remain high and volatile in the short - term [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.65% to 2733 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The increasing inventory intensifies the short - selling sentiment. Coupled with the decline in bauxite prices, the cost support continues to decline. It is expected that the price will be weak and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [2]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 19, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24450 yuan/ton and 17185 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +300 and +290 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24450 yuan/ton and - 17185 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 34.8 and - 44.18 US dollars/ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 19 was 12.2 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons compared with January 15. Lead's five - region inventory on January 19 was 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons compared with January 15 [2]. - Fundamentals: In the zinc market, the macro - sentiment pushed zinc prices to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting have declined, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply has increased significantly, the processing fees have jumped, and the seven - region zinc ingot social inventory has increased, but the low LME inventory provides support. In the lead market, the domestic lead ingot inventory has increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries has weakened, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot discount has widened. It is expected that lead prices will decline relatively [2]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8845 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.79%. The trading volume decreased by 3702 lots to 235,000 lots. The funds invested in the variety increased by 0.06 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 lots to 11571 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared with last week, mainly due to the decrease in Sichuan. The social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The operating rate of aluminum alloy has remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, there is an orange weather warning in the northwest and rumors of production cuts on the supply side this week, and the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon on the demand side still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production cuts of large factories this week. It is rumored that the variety will turn to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices with a light position can be considered [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1060 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.73% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 2040 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 45 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The SMM electric carbon price was 151,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7000 yuan/ton. The morning price of high - quality lithium carbonate by Mysteel was 146,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10550 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly production was 22605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. The production in December was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. SMM expects the supply in January to be 97970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. On the demand side, the planned production of lithium iron phosphate in January is expected to be 363,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0%; the planned production of ternary materials in January is expected to be 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. In terms of inventory, it is expected to maintain a tight balance in January due to rush exports. The sample inventory was 109600 tons, a decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelting link had an inventory increase of 1345 tons, the downstream link had an inventory decrease of 888 tons, and the trader link had an inventory decrease of 720 tons. The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots. In terms of funds, the short - term risk appetite in the market has decreased, and the invested funds have flowed out significantly to 26.77 billion yuan, an increase of 120 million yuan [3]. - Trading Strategy: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio will be increased. Currently, the market risk appetite has decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and there is significant downward pressure on the price, with relatively large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 50505 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.61%. The trading volume decreased by 1649 lots to 44,571 lots. The funds invested in the variety decreased by 0.74 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4560 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: In the spot market this week, downstream buyers are in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the planned production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the planned production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products on the 9th has a certain support for component exports during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable during the off - season [3]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the market has fully priced in this negative news. The near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of the industry association on this interview event [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean market was closed overnight [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and there is a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term, and the early harvest has begun. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports have improved marginally. In general, the global supply and demand is expected to be loose [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are also suppressed by the large supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - owned soybean sales and customs clearances [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing areas continued to rise, and the port price declined slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: Currently, more than half of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories of the north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The northeast deep - processing enterprises are highly motivated to build inventories. It is expected that the short - term spot price will be strong. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market changed little yesterday [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports have improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysia's exports from January 1 to 15 increased by 18% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and there will be weak seasonal production reduction in the long - term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to be volatile. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [5]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The basis between the Nanning spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 62 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after duty - paid was 407 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price has dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will continue until February, and then the impact of Brazilian sugarcane growth and the sugar - alcohol price difference on Brazil's next - season production should be observed. Currently, it is still in a volatile pattern. From a domestic perspective, the overall production and sales progress this year is slow, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. Under the double pressure of imported and domestic sugar, sugar will follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [5]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to short - sell, and call options can be sold [5]. Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price fluctuated slightly overnight, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's CCI started selling cotton in the 25/26 season, and about 114,000 bales were sold on the first day. Brazil exported 192,300 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 17,500 tons, a 7% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in January of last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price started to fluctuate slightly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0% [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a price range of 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [5]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production has decreased, but the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. As the egg price rises, the willingness of producers to sell has increased, the arrival volume in the sales areas has increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased, and the room for further price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline of the egg price after the stocking period ends [5]. - Trading Strategy: The room for further increase in the spot price is limited, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Hogs - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased in the north and increased in the south [5]. - Fundamentals: The hog slaughter volume in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. The demand is stable in the short - term and will gradually increase at the end of the month. The short - term supply pressure is not large, and the high demand supports the hog price. After the impact of snowfall ends, the hog price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading Strategy: After the impact of snowfall ends, the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract declined slightly yesterday. The low - price spot

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [1][3] - Egg: Short high for near - term contracts [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn market is currently a mix of long and short factors. In the medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea; in the long - term, follow the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost and focus on policy guidance [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the decline in pig prices is limited; in the medium - term, supply may increase before March and ease after April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, there is a risk of a slight decline; in the medium - term, the spot price will remain low; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: The night - session of corn futures oscillated weakly yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 0.48% to 2271 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise quotes fluctuated; port prices were stable; the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China accelerated [1] - **Market Logic**: Medium - term: multiple long and short factors; long - term: substitution + planting cost pricing logic [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 2300 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 2280 - 2290 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260 [1] Pig - **Market Review**: Pig futures oscillated downward yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 2.09% to 11705 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Pig price increase stabilized, and northern prices weakened. In 2025, pig slaughter, pork production increased, and the number of sows decreased. Piglet numbers and weights changed, and the fat - lean price difference widened [1][3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: limited decline; medium - term: supply may increase before March and ease after April; long - term: supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 12180 - 12300 is verified, with support at 11500; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 12350 - 12450 is verified, with support at 11750 - 11800; for the 2607 contract, the resistance at 13000 is verified, with support at 12400 - 12500; for the 2609 contract, the resistance at 14000 is verified, with support at 13350, and if it breaks 13350, the support moves down to 13000 [3] Egg - **Market Review**: Egg futures declined under pressure yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 1.34% to 3023 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices were mainly stable, inventory increased slightly, the price of culled chickens was basically flat, and the estimated number of laying hens decreased [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: risk of a slight decline; medium - term: spot price remains low; long - term: price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In anticipation of the decline in spot prices in February, look for short - selling opportunities in near - term contracts after a rally. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 3050 - 3080 remains, with support at 3000 - 3020, and a break below 3000 can open further downward space [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, crude oil is oscillating. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - On Monday, the price of the main - contract futures BZ2603 rose 32 yuan to 5779 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5645 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 115), and the spot price in Shandong was 5557 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 127). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1432 to 22,100, and the number of short positions decreased by 1749 to 27,400 [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 324,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.33%. Compared with the inventory of 143,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 154,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 107.69%. From January 12th to January 18th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was 0 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 27,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected decrease in the monthly demand for pure benzene from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project has been put into production [2] - Price Adjustment: Sinopec's chemical sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton today. The East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches' Yangtze River - related resources are all priced at 5600 yuan/ton, effective from January 19th [2] - Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical situations in Iran and other regions have eased, the potential supply risk has weakened, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 63.94, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [2] Market Logic - The high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation causes crude oil to oscillate. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors present complex market conditions with varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Each commodity has its own unique market logic and trading strategies, and investors need to make decisions based on these factors[3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it's recommended to hold long positions cautiously with support at 8800 - 8900 and pressure at 11000 - 11500. For Red Date 2605, short - term long positions are recommended with support at 8700 - 9000 and pressure at 9500 - 9800[19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended with support at 5200 - 5230 and pressure at 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, trading within the range with a bearish bias is advised, with support at 5300 - 5350 and pressure at 5550 - 5700. For Offset Printing Paper 2605, range trading is recommended with support at 4000 - 4100 and pressure at 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, hold long positions cautiously with support at 13500 - 13600 and pressure at 15400 - 15500[19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, up 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 655,570 tons, down 17800 tons week - on - week and 48800 tons year - on - year[20]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the mainstream transaction prices in production areas were stable, with increased cold - storage transactions and packaging. In Shandong, the cold - storage prices were stable, and the number of buyers increased. In Shaanxi, the prices were stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume increased. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was similar to last week, the overall sales were stable, and citrus had an impact on apple sales[20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Red Date Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, down 349 tons week - on - week (2.23%) and up 41.27% year - on - year. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the festival[23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In 2025, the actual arrival of out - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, up 1.2823 million tons year - on - year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 12, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 21.18% year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of January increased by 1.86% year - on - year[25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In December, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK sent to China and other Asian markets by $20/ton, and two large pulp and paper integrated enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price[30]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market The inventory days increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, up 1.02 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points[31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 22.94% month - on - month and 8.35% year - on - year. - India's cotton production in the 2025 - 2026 season is expected to increase slightly by 2.4%[32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 closed at 9807, down 1.28%; Red Date 2605 closed at 9040, down 0.99%; Sugar 2605 closed at 5280, down 0.36%; Pulp 2605 closed at 5436, down 1.06%; Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, down 0.91%[32]. - **Spot Market**: Apple was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; Red Date was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; Sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 590 yuan year - on - year; Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year; Offset Printing Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year; Cotton was 15972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month - on - month and 1235 yuan year - on - year[40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[52][55][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is 1402, with a negative month - on - month change of 39 and a positive year - on - year change of 1913, expected to be volatile and strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. - Red Date 5 - 9 spread is - 215, with a negative month - on - month change of 25 and a positive year - on - year change of 95, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 11, with a negative month - on - month change of 6 and a negative year - on - year change of 113, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 150, with a negative month - on - month change of 30 and a positive year - on - year change of 20, expected to be volatile and weak, and it's recommended to sell on rallies[60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description of the futures position situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[67][71][86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Red Date: 3211 warehouse receipts, up 232 month - on - month and down 759 year - on - year. - Sugar: 14126 warehouse receipts, up 4387 month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - Pulp: 149134 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 196294 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9329 warehouse receipts, up 493 month - on - month and up 2812 year - on - year[93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures are provided[96][101][107].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies, strengthening watch on aluminum, suggesting watching or selling on rallies for nickel, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin, range trading for gold, bullish on silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][10][13][14][15][16][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Adopting a low - buying strategy for PVC, temporarily watching for caustic soda and soda ash, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, and expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][22][23][24][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust sideways, and apples and jujubes to trade weakly [1][26][28][29] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Adopting a short - selling strategy on near - term hog contracts on rallies and cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; being cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedging on rallies for grain holders; being bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts on dips and bearish on far - term contracts; expecting three major oils to trade sideways with rapeseed oil stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][30][33][35][37][38] Core Views - Geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics are the main factors affecting the futures market. For example, Trump's tariff policies, Fed's interest rate decisions, and changes in supply and demand of various commodities have significant impacts on prices [5][6][11][17] - Different commodities have different supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some commodities are affected by seasonal factors, while others are more influenced by policy and macroeconomic factors [8][9][19][22][31] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With market sentiment cooling and the central bank cutting policy tool rates, stock indices are expected to trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank cuts the structural monetary policy tool rate, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend. Government bonds are expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to reduced transportation, slow replenishment by traders, and weak demand, coking coal is suitable for short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: Currently, the futures price is at a neutral valuation. With weakening export expectations and short - term balanced supply and demand, rebar is expected to trade in a range, and investors can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8] - **Glass**: Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has increased. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and glass prices are expected to trade weakly. Investors can sell on rallies and focus on the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a short - term rise, copper prices face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and weak downstream demand. In the short term, copper is expected to trade at a high level, and investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Due to the weak reality of alumina surplus and strong fundamental pressure in January, aluminum prices face upward pressure. Investors are advised to strengthen watch [13] - **Nickel**: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas stimulates bullish sentiment, the fundamentals are weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade sideways, and investors are advised to watch [14][15] - **Tin**: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and downstream demand maintaining rigid procurement, tin prices are expected to trade sideways. Investors can conduct range trading or take profits on previous long positions [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical tensions and changes in the expectation of the Fed chairperson, silver and gold prices are bullish in the medium term. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is suitable for range trading [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and potential supply supplements, lithium carbonate prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors need to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering low valuation and potential policy and cost factors, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and investors can focus on positive calendar spreads [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Although there may be some support in the medium term, the rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to watch [21] - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, styrene's valuation is high. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and focus on cost and supply - demand changes in the medium to long term [21] - **Rubber**: Due to the seasonal inventory build - up, weak cost support, and high downstream production and sales pressure, rubber prices are expected to decline in the short term and trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: With increasing supply and relatively stable demand, urea prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors should focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, and export policies [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of inland supply and weak traditional downstream demand, and affected by geopolitical tensions and port arrivals, methanol prices are expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins are expected to trade weakly. Investors should focus on downstream demand, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus and rising production costs, soda ash prices may have limited downside space. Investors are advised to watch [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a recent rise, cotton prices are adjusting sideways. In the long term, the outlook is optimistic. Investors should be cautious in the short term [28] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the Spring Festival approaching, the trading of apples and jujubes is generally weak, and prices are expected to trade weakly [28][29] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short term, due to high supply pressure, the rebound of hog prices is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and investors should be cautiously bullish [30][31] - **Eggs**: With low basis and high valuation, short - term spot prices are expected to be strong. Investors can hedge post - holiday 02 and 03 contracts on rallies. In the medium and long term, supply pressure still exists [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, there is limited driving force for price increases, and investors should be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, although demand is gradually released, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which limits the upside space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be bullish on dips, while far - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies [37][38] - **Oils**: Three major oils are expected to open lower and trade weakly. Investors can focus on the strategy of narrowing the 05 spreads between rapeseed and palm oils and rapeseed and soybean oils [38][43]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price of pure benzene will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. The follow - up focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market. It is recommended to choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose 63 yuan to 5694 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5530 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5430 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan month - on - month). The number of long positions increased by 809 to 21,400 hands, and the number of short positions decreased by 381 to 25,900 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival was about 36,000 tons and the pickup was about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the phenol operating rate was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the caprolactam operating rate was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the aniline operating rate was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected decrease in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: Due to the instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 US dollars to 59.44 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 US dollars to 64.13 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The geopolitical tension in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated, and crude oil prices rose on Friday. The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate last week, while the operating rate of downstream products on the demand side increased [2] Trading Strategy - Choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East, significant destocking of port methanol last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations, with the 05 contract having a reference range of 2200 - 2320. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped 3 yuan to 2245 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell 15 yuan to 2225 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2538 lots to 440,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 1811 lots to 610,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9690 tons from the previous period. In East China, the inventory decreased by 84,400 tons; in South China, it decreased by 12,500 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 45090 tons, a slight increase of 320 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 86.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 78.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the MTBE operating rate remains flat at 67.5% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Saudi Arabia had the largest import volume at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] 3.2.5 Oil Price - Due to the ongoing instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 dollars/barrel to 64.13 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East have not completely subsided. Crude oil prices rose on Friday. Last week, port methanol had significant destocking. After mid - January, the imported arrivals are expected to decrease. Coupled with the restart plans for olefin plants, methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations and will experience short - term wide - range oscillations. The 05 contract has a reference range of 2200 - 2320 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 19 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.35%，收于2 | | | | | 284元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2026年第3周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 141.10万吨，环比增加3.75%，同比下降55.53%。其中：玉米库存量为67万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加4.36%，同比下降62.27%；高粱库存量为5.60万吨，环比下降26.32%，同比 | | | | | 下降90.62%；大麦库存量为68.5万吨，环比增加6.70%，同比下降14.38%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至1月16日北方港 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and range-bound in the medium term, with the core depending on three variables: inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operating rates [2]. - The overall trend of the week was a rise followed by a fall, with increased trading volume today due to morning positive news. The 50 and 300 indices opened high and closed low, with a short - term 5 - minute adjustment showing signs of completion, and an expected morning rally on Monday [6]. - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the recommended operation is to go long [9]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it has been weak recently, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [12][13]. - Glass showed a rise followed by a fall today, and the bearish - leaning volatile view remains unchanged. Daily melting has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [16][17]. - There are bearish views on rubber. The macro - environment shows signs of correction, and domestic spot inventory pressure is becoming prominent [20]. - Pulp futures have entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily downward movement. Fundamentally, recent changes suggest that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price, and it should be treated with a bearish - leaning volatile view [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Reasons for price decline**: Traditional winter demand is low, downstream profits are compressed, some devices plan to stop or reduce production, and procurement willingness is weak; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipment pressure; the chemical sector corrected after a collective rise, and funds took profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Subsequent trend judgment**: In the short term (1 - 2 weeks), there is support at 2220 - 2230 yuan/ton and resistance at 2320 yuan/ton. Iranian imports are expected to decrease significantly in January (from 1.35 million tons to 780,000 tons), coal prices are stable with support, and if port inventory reduction accelerates, prices may rebound [2]. - **Trading strategy**: Buy on dips, operate with a light position, and take profits in batches [3]. Stock Index Futures - **Market performance**: The overall trend of the week was a rise followed by a fall, with increased trading volume today due to morning positive news. The 50 and 300 indices opened high and closed low [6]. - **Technical analysis**: The short - term 5 - minute adjustment shows signs of completion, and there is an expected morning rally on Monday. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying operations [6]. Gold - **Market performance**: Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment [9]. - **Trading strategy**: Go long [9]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: It is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. The supply is expected to be more abundant with the commissioning of the Simandou project, and terminal demand, except for exports, is weak in real estate and infrastructure [12][13]. - **Technical analysis**: It has been weak recently, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [12]. Glass - **Market situation**: Daily melting has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [17]. - **Technical analysis**: It showed a rise followed by a fall today, and the bearish - leaning volatile view remains unchanged [16]. Rubber - **Bearish reasons**: The macro - environment shows signs of correction, and domestic spot inventory pressure is becoming prominent [20]. Pulp - **Market situation**: Pulp futures have entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily downward movement. Fundamentally, recent changes include the halt of the further rise of broad - leaf pulp (staying around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and a large number of pulp warehouse receipts registration, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price [24]. - **Trading view**: It should be treated with a bearish - leaning volatile view [24].

碳酸锂 期货主力合约跌超4%，现报153860元/吨。 ...