Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market is experiencing a downturn due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with the S&P 500 index down 0.47%, Nasdaq down 0.27%, and Dow Jones down 0.16% over the past week [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the high-level economic talks between China and the US, with recent meetings indicating a continued stance against excessive tariffs from the US [1][2] - The US economy is showing signs of strain, with a contraction in Q1 GDP and a potential technical recession if uncertainties persist [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US labor market is cooling, and consumer confidence has dropped to 52.2, with inflation expectations rising from 5.0% to 6.5% for the next year [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, with concerns that tariffs could lead to rising unemployment and inflation [3] - Upcoming economic data, including April CPI and retail sales, are critical for assessing the risk of stagflation, which could pressure the stock market [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Large-cap stocks are viewed as more defensive compared to small-cap stocks in the current economic cycle, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality companies with low debt and stable earnings [7] - There is a significant risk of a further decline in the US stock market, with estimates suggesting a potential drop of nearly 20% due to economic recession concerns [7] - Recent capital flows indicate a shift away from US equities, with $8.9 billion exiting the market while European and Japanese markets saw inflows [6]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250511 美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ◼ 海外政治：美英贸易磋商取得阶段性成果，中美高层接触释放缓和信号。 英国和美国于本周四（5 月 8 日）宣布一项降低部分商品关税的协议。 虽然特朗普此前宣布的对世界各国进口产品征收 10%的关税仍然有效， 并且仍然适用于进入美国的大多数英国商品，但该协议降低或取消了英 国部分出口产品的关税，包括汽车、钢铁和铝。特朗普在社交媒体平台 将此协议定性为"公平、开放、互惠"的贸易安排，并借机宣示其贸易 谈判策略的成效。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特亦同步透露， 另有二十余项贸易协议正处于谈判收尾阶段。需注意的是，美英贸易谈 判的特殊性限制了其外推价值：其一，美国对英贸易长期保持顺差，特 朗普政府核心关切的贸易失衡问题在此次谈判中并非核心议题；其二， 协议内容仅针对特定商品条款展开，而非如英印自贸协定般构建全面经 贸框架。因此，美英谈判进展或难以直接映射美国与其他经济体的谈判 逻辑。在中美关系方面，双方高层于 5 月 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行近 8 小时的实质性磋商，系 ...

Domestic Economic Developments - The People's Bank of China implemented a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, aimed at alleviating short-term economic downward pressure and supporting long-term structural transformation[8] - During the May Day holiday, domestic tourism saw a 6.4% year-on-year increase, with total spending reaching approximately 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting a robust domestic consumption market[6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced 25 measures to guide public funds from focusing on scale to prioritizing investor returns, which may reshape the competitive landscape of the industry[11] International Economic Developments - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for April rose to 51.6, exceeding expectations and indicating a structural divergence between a strong services sector and a weak manufacturing sector[15] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, a 14.0% month-on-month increase, primarily due to accelerated imports ahead of tariff hikes[17] - Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faced a challenging political landscape, with internal party conflicts likely to intensify despite his election victory[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.85% week-on-week, while iron ore prices fell by 0.09%, and copper prices increased by 0.33%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities dropped by 33.05% week-on-week, with first-tier cities experiencing a 42.73% decline[38] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 52% year-on-year in April, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation expectation and tariff implementation may be the key observation signals for the Fed. The Fed emphasizes the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk), and the logic of inflation, economy, and tariffs has become more direct and clear. Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. The Fed reiterates waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [3][13]. - For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%". For the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on the Fed's key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Monetary Policy Remains at the Level of the March Meeting - On May 7th, the third FOMC meeting of this year ended. The federal funds rate remained in the 4.25 - 4.50% range, and other monetary policies remained unchanged compared with the March meeting. The pace of balance sheet reduction slowed down as before, with the monthly natural maturity of Treasury bonds adjusted from $25 billion in March to $5 billion [2][8]. 1.2 Inflation Expectation and Tariff Implementation May be the Key Observation Signals for the Fed - "Tariff" is an important keyword in this meeting. For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%", and for the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. As of now, only the UK has initially reached a negotiation with the US, and specific details need to be finalized in the next few weeks. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3][10]. 1.3 Comparison of the May Press Conference and the March Statement - **Stagflation Risk**: Emphasize the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk) [13][14]. - **Logic of Inflation, Economy, and Tariffs**: The logic has become more direct and clear. The Q1 GDP decline reflects the fluctuation of net exports, which is likely due to large - scale imports by companies before potential tariffs. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained the previous quarter's level, with a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a recovery in equipment and intangible asset investment. The sentiment in household and business surveys has declined sharply, and the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, strongly reflecting concerns about trade policies. The attribution of inflation to tariffs has become more "direct" [12][13][16]. - **Inflation Impact**: Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. If the announced large - scale tariff increase policy is continuously implemented, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and increased unemployment [13][22]. - **Long - term Interest Rate Expectation**: Most long - term inflation expectation indicators are still consistent with the 2% inflation target [23]. - **Price Stability**: Price stability is emphasized as the cornerstone of a strong labor market [24]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: Reiterate waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [13][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

国际航运巨头发出警告。 当地时间5月8日，作为全球贸易的晴雨表，国际航运巨头马士基在披露财报的同时，对特朗普政府的关税冲击 发出警告。马士基表示，由于客户对关税形势采取观望态度，4月中美集装箱市场的运量双向下降了30%— 40%。 与此同时，美国劳工统计局最新公布的数据也拉响了警报。其中显示，美国第一季度劳动生产率折合成年率下 降0.8%，这是近三年来首次下降；非农单位劳动力成本初值上升5.7%，为一年来最大增幅。 另外，根据高盛的最新预测，美国核心通胀"即将起飞"，直到2026年6月才会停止加速。今年圣诞节前美国通 胀率或将达到4%，其中商品价格通胀率或将飙升至6%—8%。 暴跌超3 0% 当地时间5月8日，马士基公布了最新财报，其中显示，今年一季度，公司实现营收133亿美元，增长7.8%；息 税前利润从去年同期的1.77亿美元升至12.53亿美元。 马士基警告称，今年剩余时间内的全球集装箱需求前景仍高度不确定，这受到贸易政策的快速变化，以及美国 日益增长的衰退风险影响。 鉴于宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性加剧，马士基将2025年全球集装箱市场的增长预期下调至-1%至4%，此前的 预期为增长4%。 马士基同时预 ...

在券商人士看来，美国强劲的就业数据与疲弱的消费者信心等相互矛盾的经济信号使美联储决策者的工 作变得尤为棘手，美国经济存在滞胀风险或是令美联储连续按兵不动的重要原因。美联储5月利率决议 公布后，已有机构将美联储重启降息的时间预期从6月推迟至7月，观望等待成为美联储当前的政策主基 调。 ● 本报记者周璐璐 美联储连续第三次决定维持利率不变 北京时间5月8日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次决定维持利率不变。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在声明中说，近几个月来美国失业率稳定在较低水平，劳 动力市场状况依然稳固，但通货膨胀仍"一定程度上处于高位"。美联储认为，经济前景的不确定性"进 一步增加"。此外，美联储还表示，"失业率上升和通胀加剧的风险有所增加"，这是此前声明中没有的 内容，体现出美联储对最新经济形势的担忧。 在美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，"关税"一词被提及超过20次。鲍威尔在被问及关税的实际影响时 表示，委员会注意到消费者情绪方面的变化，人们对关税带来的冲击感到担忧，担心价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ukraine is considering abandoning the US dollar as its reference currency and is looking to tie its currency, the hryvnia, more closely to the euro due to increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [1][3][4] - The Ukrainian central bank governor, Andriy Pyshnyi, indicated that the potential for EU membership and the strengthening role of the EU in Ukraine's defense are influencing this decision [3][4] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar index has dropped over 9%, raising concerns about the future status of the dollar as a global reserve currency [1][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the dollar has historically dominated international trade and constitutes a significant portion of global foreign exchange reserves, but the share of euro transactions is gradually increasing [4] - Ukraine's hryvnia was pegged to the dollar at an official rate of 29 hryvnias per dollar after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the central bank has shifted to a managed floating exchange rate system as of October 2023 [4] - The potential economic recovery in Ukraine is projected to be between 3.7% and 3.9% over the next two years, contingent on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]