Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]

证券研究报告 金融 公募改革落地，政策组合拳共振 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 11 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十九周） 本周观点 投资机会方面银行>证券>保险。央行降准 50bp+降息 10bp 并引导存款利率 下调，平衡稳息差与降成本。银行系 AIC 布局加速，兴业银行获批筹建国 内第六家 AIC，招商银行、中信银行拟出资设立。国新办新闻发布会召开， 支持资本市场和稳定金融体系的政策组合拳落地；公募基金改革方案发布， 推动行业从"重规模"向"重投资者回报"转型，用 3 年左右形成高质量 发展"拐点"。权益投资偿付能力风险因子下调 10%，有助于推动险资入市， 降低保险公司偿付能力压力。 子行业观点 1）银行：央行降准 50bp+降息 10bp 并引导存款利率下调，平衡稳息差与 降成本。3 月按揭利率边际回升，下一步将出台金融促消费一揽子政策举措， 增加信贷资金供给支持。银行系 AIC 布局加速，为股权投资市场再添活水。 2）证券：公募基金改革方案有望加速行业生态重构，推动头部集中与差异 化竞争。国新办发布会是继去年"924"后的新一轮政策组合拳，从制度、 生态、资金多维度呵护市场平稳运行，权益市场底部有 ...

Monetary Policy and Market Response - The recent interest rate cuts were lower than market expectations, with the policy rate reduced by 50 basis points, leading to a mixed response in the bond market[1][22]. - Following the cuts, overnight funding rates fell to around 1.5%, while the yields on long-term bonds like the 10-year and 30-year government bonds increased slightly to 1.63% and 1.88%, respectively[11][22]. - The central bank's focus remains on structural policies to stabilize market expectations, despite the easing of monetary policy[1][21]. Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The U.S.-China tariff situation is expected to gradually ease, but the timeline and extent of this easing remain uncertain, with current tariffs at 145% potentially reducing to a negotiable level[3][23]. - April's export data showed a significant year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing market expectations of 1.9%, indicating a potential "export rush" rather than genuine demand recovery[24][26]. - Domestic demand remains weak, contributing to a decline in industrial product prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%[24][26]. Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The bond market is currently in a waiting phase, with a preference for high-cost performance products amidst a backdrop of loose funding conditions and declining interest rates[5][27]. - Short-term bonds are expected to have more room for appreciation, while the 30-year bonds are viewed as relatively safe investments due to their current yield levels around 1.90%[5][33]. - The upcoming financial data release is critical for assessing domestic demand, with expectations for new loans around 764.4 billion yuan, similar to last year's low point[24][26].

证券代码：839979 国债期货周报 2025年5月5日——5月9日 杜淑芳 期货从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000690 本周行情回顾 本周为五一假期后首个交易周，债市呈现震荡偏弱格局，其中超长端走势较弱。周初受资金面边际收紧及政府债券供给压力影响，市场偏弱 整理，周二央行宣布降准降息，短端收益率快速下行，但由于长端此前市场对降准降息已有预期，情绪博弈下市场出现止盈回调。后半周资金利率 持续回落，叠加中美关税谈判进展不确定性，债市进入窄幅震荡。政策面方面，在货币政策宽松落地后市场长短端走势分化也在一定程度上显示当 前市场情绪的纠结。一方面，央行降准降息组合拳对冲了政府债券供给压力，尤其是公开市场7天逆回购利率调降10个基点后银行间资金利率也随 之下降，对于期债的利多是显而易见的。但另一方面，本次降准降息的幅度并不大，更多的是在结构性货币政策领域推出的政策措施较多，这也表 明了货币政策会坚守"适度宽松"基调，不搞大水漫灌，对于长端市场预期依旧的降息幅度预期有一定差距，因此也出现了长端在数据公布后价格 不升反降的情况。基本面数据方面，以美元计价，4月出口同比增长8.1%，前值12.4% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. Although their main contract prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, considering the positive outcome of the China-US talks, it is predicted that both PE and PP will show a slightly stronger trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March, both at recent lows. The market's expectation of loose liquidity has increased. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the export demand for products is weakened by tariffs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-80) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 204, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.9%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 636,000 tons (+169,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, but considering the positive outcome of the China - US talks and the off - season demand for agricultural films, it is predicted that PE will show a slightly stronger trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and improved expectations from the China - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launches, tariff - affected demand, and the off - season of agricultural films [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs were at recent lows. The market anticipates loose liquidity. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the export demand for products is weakened by tariffs. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7300 (-0) [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 315, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 676,000 tons (+112,000), showing a neutral signal [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, but considering the positive outcome of the China - US talks and the demand mainly for immediate needs, it is predicted that PP will show a slightly stronger trend today [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and improved expectations from the China - US talks; bearish factors include the weakening of crude oil and tariff - affected demand [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing year by year, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15].

摘要 • 央行不再披露统一中标利率，转而采用多个中标利率水平，并可能将降低 社会综合融资成本的重心从利率下调转向费用控制，需关注企业一般贷款 加权平均利率和按揭贷款利率的变动。 • 中国债券市场流动性集中在少数活跃券上，央行若采取措施，可能影响这 些活跃券的收益率。同时，政府债券增发空间较大，中央政府可进一步加 杠杆，需关注国债收益率变化。 • 央行认为物价低迷和通胀不高源于供过于求和产能过剩，超低利率对提振 物价帮助不大，并提示了超低利率的风险，强调应更多管控低价而非高价。 • 市场普遍预期二季度经济增速将较一季度有所下滑，高关税对中国经济有 影响，但程度可能稍好于预期。2025 年 4 月出口数据超预期，但对美出 口下降，需关注中美关税谈判结果对债市的影响。 • 降准降息政策已落地，10 年国债收益率已基本反映降息预期，短期内政策 利率下调的利好有限。央行旨在压缩非银资金空转套利空间，未来或将隔 夜利率控制在 1.6%左右。 Q&A 央行在最新的一季度货币政策执行报告中透露了哪些重要信号？ 债市周周谈：降准降息后的债市展望 20250511 央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中透露了几个重要信号。首先，央行强调 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive monetary policy package consisting of ten measures to support market stability and expectations [4] - Key measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] Group 2: Consumer Finance Support - The People's Bank of China is set to issue guiding documents to enhance consumer finance services, with a focus on sectors like accommodation, dining, and entertainment [6] - A special action plan was released in Guangdong to promote consumption, including a 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care [6][7] Group 3: Automotive Industry Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on mandatory safety standards for automotive door handles to enhance safety and standardization in vehicle design [5] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Developments - Zeekr became one of the first companies to receive certification under the new national standard for electric vehicle batteries, indicating compliance with upcoming safety regulations [8] - Other companies like Lantu and Geely also announced they received similar certifications, highlighting a trend towards improved safety standards in the EV sector [8] Group 5: Corporate Actions in the Automotive Sector - Geely announced intentions to privatize Zeekr and delist it from the New York Stock Exchange, aiming to consolidate its automotive business and enhance innovation capabilities [9] Group 6: IPO Activity - CATL is on track for a significant IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising between 4 billion to 5 billion USD, marking the largest IPO in the region in four years [10] Group 7: Real Estate Market Trends - Guangzhou's real estate market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant increases in visitor numbers and property transactions during the recent holiday period [11][12] Group 8: Financial Sector Reforms - Guangdong's rural credit system is undergoing reforms to establish a rural commercial bank, with a focus on improving management and governance [13] Group 9: Commodity Price Impact - Major chocolate brands like Mars and Ferrero are planning price increases due to rising cocoa prices, with Mars products seeing price hikes between 4.9% and 15% [14][15] Group 10: Corporate Acquisition - Skechers has accepted a buyout offer from 3G Capital, valuing the company at over 9 billion USD, amid pressures from trade tensions and performance challenges [16]

◼ 降准降息落地，叠加关税战后的首份外贸数据公布，债市将如何反应？ 2025 年 5 月 9 日，海关总署公布了我国 4 月进出口数据。按美元计价， 2025 年 4 月，我国进出口总值 5352 亿美元，同比增长 4.6%。其中，出 口 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%；进口 2195 亿美元，同比增长-0.2%； 贸易顺差 962 亿美元，去年同期为顺差 720 亿美元。从主要出口经济体 来看，占我国 2025 年 4 月出口金额当月值前三位的依然为东盟、美国 和欧盟，其对整体出口金额的拉动率分别为 3.98%、-2.2%和 1.22%。自 美国宣布对等关税政策后，由于外部环境的不确定性陡增，且东南亚国 家目前仍有关税豁免，因此我国出口呈现出明显的"抢出口"和转口贸 易特征，东盟对出口的拉动较 3 月上升 1.81 个百分点。同时，在 5 月 7 日召开的新闻发布会上，潘行长宣布了降准降息落地，在我们此前发布 的报告《双降之后，债券市场怎么走？》中，已经有详细的分析。在此 我们对观点进行重申，由于新闻发布会上，潘行长提及了"10 年期国债 收益率徘徊在 1.65%左右"，市场将其作为了一个"锚"，债券 ...

01 重要事件回顾 (5.5-5.11) 1、5月7日国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，央行降 准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。 2、当地时间5月7日，美联储委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间不变。鲍威尔表示，通胀的影响可能是短暂的，但 也可能会"更加持久"。面对这种不确定性，鲍威尔表示"等待和进一步观察的成本相当 低"。 报告正文共计2932字 链接报告 阅读全文（长按上方二维码） 您也可点击下方"阅读原文"查看报告全文，更多高质量研究成果等你发现！ (5.25-5.11) 债市小幅上涨 本周央行通过逆回购净投放资金1586亿元，维护流动性宽松。5月8日开展的7天期逆回购利 率维持在1.40%，推动货币市场利率显著下行，市场流动性保持充裕。5月7日央行宣布降准 0.5个百分点（释放约1万亿元流动性）和降息10BP（逆回购利率从1.5%降至1.4%），受 此消息提振，本周债市整体小幅上涨。 A股显著反弹 5月7日央行降准0.5个百分点并下调逆回购利率，释放流动性，叠加 ... 0 ...