文字早评 2025/12/12 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；推动投资止跌回稳， 适当增加中央预算内投资规模；深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革； 2、有市场消息称量化交易在交易所的设备将被清退，多家券商相关负责人回应：目前尚未接到具体通 知； 3、商务部：推动安世荷兰尽快派员来华； 4、LME 铜价创下纪录新高 突破每吨 11790 美元。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.65%/-1.22%/-2.16%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-0.95%/-2.67%/-5.53%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.10%/-1.22%/-3.41%/-6.72%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-0.48%/-0.51%/-0.98%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 113.190 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents data on precious metals, including gold and silver, and also mentions some macro - and industry - related news. Gold is expected to see an on - schedule interest rate cut, while silver is in a high - level adjustment phase. The trend intensity for both gold and silver is neutral [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price and Performance**: - Gold: The closing prices of various gold products showed increases, such as the 1.33% increase in the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 and 0.48% in Comex Gold 2602. Silver prices had mixed performance, with some showing increases and others decreases, like the 2.81% increase in Shanghai Silver 2602 and - 2.95% in Comex Silver 2602 [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver products also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 increased by 49,026 compared to the previous day, and the open interest of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 8,735 [1]. - ETF and Inventory: The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF changed, and the inventories of gold and silver in different markets also had corresponding adjustments, such as a 5,986 increase in Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces) [1]. - Spread: The spreads between different gold and silver products also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold increased by 605.72 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of major currencies also changed, such as a - 0.10% change in the US dollar against the offshore RMB [1]. Macro and Industry News - Trump is inclined to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chair and says the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rate issues [1][3]. - In November, China's new social financing reached 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [3]. - Multiple Chinese ministries responded to the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank will use various monetary policy tools flexibly; the NDRC will take practical measures to boost consumption; the Ministry of Finance will make good use of government bond funds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [3]. - He Lifeng emphasizes preventing "explosive risks" in 2026 [3]. - Han Wenxiu says that next year, incremental policies will be introduced according to the situation to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and both exports and imports will be increased [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].

Domestic Macro - The People's Bank of China and the Monetary Authority of Macao upgraded the currency swap arrangement to 50 billion RMB to support financial stability and economic development [6][16] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for steady progress and quality improvement in the economic work for 2026, proposing "eight persistences" [6][16] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the flexible use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts, to stabilize investment and address excessive competition [6][16] Industry Policy - The State Council held a meeting focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction, and the Financial Regulatory Authority announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments [7][17] - The National Medical Insurance Administration released a new drug list, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, expanding medication coverage [7][18] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the price fluctuation limit for silver futures contracts to 15% to mitigate potential market risks [7][17] Local Policy - Shenzhen introduced new housing fund policies to ease withdrawal conditions and support simultaneous loans and withdrawals [8][19] - Sichuan Province launched a three-year plan to promote more companies to go public and facilitate mergers and acquisitions [8][19] - Ningxia issued twelve new policies to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, focusing on housing consumption and financial support [8][19] Overseas Dynamics - The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking the fourth rate cut of the year [9][20] - The United States released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting military deployments in the Western Hemisphere to address immigration and drug trafficking issues [9][20] - The European Union reached a preliminary agreement to strengthen scrutiny of foreign direct investments, granting more review and intervention powers [9][22]

社融好于季节性的背后 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 12 年 月 日 事件：2025 年 11 月新增人民币贷款 3900 亿，前值 2200 亿，预期 5043 亿，去年同期 5800 亿；新增社融 2.49 万亿，前值 8161 亿，预期 2.02 万 亿，去年同期 2.33 万亿；存量社融增速 8.5%，前值 8.5%；M2 同比 8%， 预期 8.2%，前值 8.2%；M1 同比 4.9%，预期 5%，前值 6.2%。 宏观点评 1、整体看，新增信贷低于预期、也低于季节性，结构上也未有好转，居 民部门连续两个月"去杠杆"，企业部门票据冲量特征明显；社融同比多 增，企业债券改善是主要支撑，政府债券拖累也有所减弱。总量看，11 月 新增信贷 3900 亿，同比少增 1900 亿，低于市场预期，也明显低于季节 性；新增社融 2.49 万亿，同比多增 1597 亿，好于季节性，也好于预期。 结构上，居民部门连续两个月"去杠杆"，短贷、中长贷均同比少增，指向 消费、地产仍偏弱。企业短贷同比多增，票据冲量特征明显，企业短期债 券融资也同比多增，指向企业短期现金流压力可能较大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

来源：热点解码局 2026年货币政策定调"适度宽松"引热议，首次强调"灵活高效运用降准降息"和"物价合理回升"，政策重 点从规模扩张转向精准调控与结构优化。 一、政策基调：延续"适度宽松"，强调灵活性与协同性 核心目标调整 物价回升路径 工具创新与协同 提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等工具"，预计2026年或实施1-2次降准降息操作，政策利率可能下调10-50 个基点。更强调政策协同： 财政配合：与"更加积极的财政政策"联动，扩大特别国债、专项债规模（或达1.6万亿）； 结构性引导：通过再贷款等定向工具，推动资金流向科技创新、中小微企业及绿色产业。 二、新动向：破解"低物价"成政策焦点 央行操作逻辑转变 不同于传统"降息促通胀"思路，央行认为单纯放水可能加剧产能过剩。转而通过： 供给侧改革：清理"内卷式竞争"，削减低效产能（如全国统一大市场建设）； 需求端激活：配合财政增收计划、消费券发放及服务消费补贴，提升居民消费能力。 货币政策首次将"促进物价合理回升"与"经济稳定增长"并列为核心任务，旨在缓解当前"供强需弱"的结 构性矛盾。同时要求"保持流动性充裕"，但明确拒绝"大水漫灌"，注重平衡短期刺激与长期风险防范。 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 免责声明 报告摘要 降准降息或将较快落地 降准和降息共同受到的制约：货币政策的空间。当前7D OMO利率为1.4%，倘若每次降10bp的话，在降14次后 便会触及零利率。当前大型银行的存款准备金率为7.5%，倘若每次降0.5个百分点的话，在降5次后便会触及 5%的隐性下限，在降15次后便会触及其理论下限。当然，在法储率触及下限后还可以通过公开市场买入国债 等方式释放长期流动性。此外，也可通过优化准备金缴存制度等方式，在法储率不变的背景下释放流动性。 降准有而降息没有的作用：补充低成本的长期流动性。在诸多主流货币政策工具中，唯有降准和公开市场买入 国债可向银行体系主动投放长期流动性，而MLF、7天期逆回购和其他期限逆回购等工具只能提供中短 ...

12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 继续保持市场流动性充裕 会议指出，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，这表明物价作为反映供需的信号，成为政策关注变量，而货币政策与经济增长、物 价的关联也进一步被明确。 具体操作层面，会议指出，"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 本报记者 韩昱 "这延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量 发展。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时说。 货币政策作为宏观经济调控的核心工具，本次会议释放的信号对明年的货币政策有哪些指引？业界又有哪些具体期待？ 《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位专家进行解读。 从幅度看，东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳预计，综合明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，政策性降息幅度有可能达到0.2 个百分点至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点，上半年、下半年分别实施一次。 "从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底明年初降息降准落地的可能。"冯琳进 ...

2025.12. 12 本文字数：2008，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 12月12日，中国人民银行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作 会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。 在当日召开的全国金融系统工作会议上，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰表 示，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融 支持，稳步有序推进金融改革开放，做好预期管理。 具体在明年工作方面，央行会议提出了五大方向，涉及完善中央银行制度、继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策、防范化解重点领域金融风险、稳步推进金融高水平开放等。 构建科学稳健货币政策体系 完善中央银行制度，建设强大的中央银行被列为央行的首要工作。 央行表示，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，动态评估完善货币政策框架，丰富货币政策工具箱，加强 货币政策执行和传导。 在发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能的同时，也要持续畅通货币政策传导机制。"这既需要加 强对货币政策执行情况的评估和监督，也需要做好货币政策与其他宏观政策的协同配合，还需要有效 实施政策沟通和预期管理。"上述专家称。 降准降息是明 ...