上周，现货黄金走势可谓是大起大落，日内交易多次出现近100美元的幅度在波动，一度将金价推至3500上方，最终收报于3316.26美元。今日欧市盘中， 黄金大幅下跌，目前在3282美元附近徘徊。 "超级周"来袭！ 上周，美股市场全线反攻，道指涨2.48%，标普500指数涨4.59%，纳指涨6.73%。但华尔街机构对美股后市的展望并不乐观，美银全球策略师Michael Hartnett在最新的报告中指出，基于美元持续贬值预期、市场不确定性加剧，建议投资者逢高卖出美股。 本周，投资者们将面临三个重大事件。 第一件大事，当然还是有关特朗普的政策及关税谈判。 有消息称，日本经济再生担当大臣、与美国贸易谈判的日方首席代表赤泽亮正计划于4月30日至5月2日访美，会见美国财政部长贝森特等特朗普政府的官 员，进行第二轮美日谈判。 而特朗普第二任期将在4月30日满百日，届时他将公布第二个百日计划。考虑到他执政的第一个100天引发了市场混乱，并招致了广泛批评，他可能想办法 带给市场一些好消息。市场认为关税已达峰值，特朗普将被迫降低对中国的关税。 哈佛大学教授、前美国财长劳伦斯·萨默斯评价称，"特朗普2.0政府"的"执政百日"，可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impending tariffs on small packages from China are prompting fast fashion giant Shein to raise prices on its products sold in the U.S., indicating early signs of the trade war's impact on American consumers [1][2][3] Price Changes - Shein significantly increased prices across most product categories, with beauty and health items seeing an average price increase of 51% for the top 100 products, and some items doubling in price [1][2] - Home, kitchen goods, and toys experienced an average price increase of over 30%, with specific items like a 10-pack of kitchen paper towels rising from $1.28 to $6.10, a 377% increase [1][2] - Women's apparel saw an average price increase of 8% [1] Tariff Implications - The U.S. government is set to end the "de minimis" exemption for small packages from mainland China and Hong Kong, leading to potential tariffs of up to 120% on many products from e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu [2][3] - Following the tariff changes, Shein's prices in the U.S. rose approximately 10% from April 24 to 26, with 30 out of 50 sampled products increasing by over 10% [3] Supply Chain Adjustments - To avoid tariffs, Shein has incentivized some Chinese suppliers to establish production bases in Vietnam, while Temu aims to ship products directly from Chinese factories to U.S. warehouses [3] - The trade war has led to a shift in sourcing, with companies moving production to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly affecting countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh [5][9] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is the largest importer of apparel, with 97% of clothing and footwear sourced from overseas, making American consumers vulnerable to price increases due to tariffs [11] - Major fashion brands like Nike and Adidas are heavily reliant on Asian countries for production, with significant portions of their products sourced from Vietnam and Cambodia [12][13][14] Consumer Impact - A Yale University analysis predicts that consumer spending on footwear will increase by 87% and on apparel by 65% over the next three years due to tariffs, with long-term increases of 29% for footwear and 25% for apparel expected [15]

据《湖南日报》援引新加坡媒体报道，在农产品贸易领域，大豆作为美国对华出口的核心产品之一，一直占 据着重要地位，去年还占到美国对华出口农产品的28% 。然而，特朗普政府显然低估了中国应对贸易挑战的 决心和能力。 除了大豆市场，美国在其他领域的对华出口也遭受重创。在能源领域，2025年3月，中国对美液化天然气进 口"清零"，这是自2022年6月以来的首次。曾经作为中国LNG市场"五大供应国"之一的美国，出口量锐减，而 中国则加大从印尼、澳大利亚和文莱等国的采购力度，还与阿联酋签署了15年、每年100万吨的液化天然气 大单。在汽车领域，特朗普以"国家安全"为由对中国汽车加征关税，结果却为德国、日本和韩国等国的汽车 企业腾出了市场空间。 特朗普（资料图） 如今，美国空出来的市场份额已被其他国家迅速填补。阿联酋、巴西、澳大利亚、印尼、阿根廷等国与中国 构建起长期、稳定、非政治化的贸易关系网络，而美国在这个网络之外逐渐被边缘化。业内人士指出，留给 美国企业的时间已经不多，如果中美迟迟无法达成协议，等到市场被完全瓜分，美国企业想要重回中国市场 将难上加难。就像澳大利亚，其牛肉在2019年因莫里森政府的遏华政策几乎"百分百退 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fireworks industry is facing a significant crisis due to high tariffs imposed by President Trump on Chinese imports, which could lead to a shortage of fireworks for the upcoming 250th anniversary of American independence in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Impact - Over 90% of fireworks used in the U.S. are sourced from China, and the tariffs have caused American fireworks companies to halt orders from Chinese suppliers, leading to potential shortages [1][2]. - In 2024, the U.S. imported $508 million worth of fireworks, with 95% coming from China, highlighting the industry's heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing [2]. - The American Pyrotechnics Association (APA) has indicated that the current tariffs are severely impacting the industry, with companies unable to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers, potentially leading to industry consolidation [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context - The U.S. fireworks industry has declined significantly since the mid-20th century due to increased regulation and the inability to produce fireworks domestically, resulting in a reliance on imports from China [5]. - The trade war initiated by Trump in 2019 initially recognized the unique nature of the fireworks industry, leading to a temporary exemption from tariffs, but the current situation has not seen similar relief [5]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The tariffs are expected to have broader economic implications, with evidence suggesting that they are suppressing economic activity and could lead to increased prices in the near future [6][7]. - Shipping data indicates a significant drop in container orders from China to the U.S., with a 60% decrease in the three weeks following the tariff implementation, which could result in shortages similar to those experienced during the pandemic [6][7]. - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. is experiencing one of its largest monthly declines on record, raising concerns about the risk of recession as a result of the ongoing trade tensions [7].

上周五（4月25日）亚洲交易时段，现货黄金市场呈现典型的多空拉锯态势。截至东京时间7点52分，金价在触及3370.58美元/盎司日内高点后回落至3350美 元关键心理价位震荡整理。这种波动格局恰似当前全球金融市场的缩影——在周三经历3%的剧烈回调后，周四以1.83%的强势反弹收复3348.50美元，彰显 出避险资产在动荡环境中的独特韧性。 政治博弈主导短期走势 本周黄金市场的戏剧性波动，本质上是大国博弈的镜像映射。周二金价创纪录飙升至3500美元的历史性时刻，直接诱因是特朗普针对美联储主席鲍威尔 的"非常规威胁"。这种政治干预预期迅速推高市场避险情绪，但随后特朗普的"政策急转弯"——撤销罢免威胁并释放贸易缓和信号，导致金价在24小时内回 撤超150美元。这种政策不确定性并非孤立事件，而是全球贸易体系重构进程中的典型波动。 亚洲大国周四的强硬表态为市场注入新变量。要求全面取消关税的立场与白宫释放的"谈判善意"形成鲜明对冲，这种立场差异在金融市场引发连锁反应：美 元指数单日重挫0.61%至99.29，而黄金则获得17亿美元的避险资金流入。这种政策博弈的"罗生门"状态，使得传统资产定价模型面临严峻挑战。 政策迷雾中 ...

农产品早报 2025-04-28 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【重要资讯】 周末国内现货互有涨跌，由于油厂开机仍未明显恢复，叠加五一备货需求，全国最低报价仍然在 3700 元/吨高位。市场预期未来三个月豆粕及大豆有累库趋势，下游谨慎提货。预计本周大豆油厂开机率41.3%， 压榨 146.93 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周西南部降雨较多，中部零星降雨，关注种植进度。由于对美大豆的高额关税导致我国 大豆进口仅依赖巴西，巴西大豆升贴水后期有走强动力，近期下跌空间也不会太大，而美豆目前低于其 种植成本较多，适逢其种植季节种植面积及天气都有交易空间，在宏观环境没有明显走弱的前提下，我 国大豆到港成本具有稳中偏涨的趋势。但若贸易战引发宏观进一步走弱，美豆种植成本 ...

在包括七国集团（G7）和二十国集团（G20）成员参加的国际货币基金组织（IMF）会议上，发生了一 些特别的事情。美国代表们面对的不是公开的敌意，而是几乎全世界其他国家的愤怒、困惑和深切担 忧，因为美国让全球经济在刚刚从四年的疫情、战争和能源冲击中走出来之际，又重新走向危机。 东亚国家的担忧表现得最为强烈，因为这些经济体中的许多国家是美国的关键盟友，且对美出口多于从 美进口，所以在4月初被归类为美国就业岗位的"掠夺者和抢劫者"。 在G7的讨论中，日本表现出了安静而坚定的愤怒，据说美国在贸易问题上的转变让日本人感到被背叛 了。而且日本对美国贸易谈判代表真正想要什么感到困惑，这最近引发了对美国政府债券的抛售。日本 财务大臣加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）在圆桌会议上表示，美国的关税"非常令人失望"，损害了经济增 长，破坏了市场稳定。 撤退的号角 面对狂热的债券市场，上周美国贸易战中撤退的号角声越来越清晰。美国似乎抛出了大量的橄榄枝，希 望让中国回到谈判桌前，从尊重中国的经济成就，到提出达成一项"美好地重新平衡"世界经济的协议。 这与之前"掠夺和抢劫"的言论相去甚远。 不过，人们非常期待的美国财政部长斯科特・ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on consumer prices in the U.S., particularly through online shopping platforms like Amazon, where prices have increased significantly due to tariffs on Chinese goods [1][2] - SmartScout data indicates that since the second week of April, nearly a thousand products on Amazon have seen an average price increase of close to 30%, affecting various categories from electronics to clothing [1] - Amazon's CEO Andrew Jassy has acknowledged that U.S. tariff policies are expected to raise prices on many consumer goods, with some tariffs reaching as high as 145% on certain Chinese imports [1] Group 2 - Amazon responded to the price increase claims by stating that the affected products represent only 1% of its top 100,000 best-selling items, with most price adjustments being around 6%, suggesting that the reported average increase is skewed by a few high-priced items [2] - Other e-commerce platforms, such as SHEIN and Temu, have also raised prices or added "tariff surcharges" in response to the U.S. tariff policies, reflecting the broader challenge retailers face due to increased costs [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff rates and the duration of these policies complicates long-term planning for businesses, as restructuring supply chains or relocating production can be costly and time-consuming [2] Group 3 - Analysts from Oxford Economics suggest that while tariffs on Chinese goods may eventually decrease from their current levels, the timeline for such changes remains unclear [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - The soybean meal may fluctuate in the short - term [1] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1] - The copper price has rebounded to a key price range. Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the monthly K - line pattern [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [3][4] - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - The coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at low levels with limited upside space [7] - The iron ore 2505 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8] - The WTI crude oil will see its price center shift down in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9] - For Shanghai rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11] - The soda ash futures market will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. Mid - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Rizhao are 3,800 yuan/ton (- 150), 4,050 yuan/ton (- 250), and 3,830 yuan/ton (- 170) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade tariff issues remain unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to become looser. The inventory has reached a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil refinery operations [1] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,128 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,333 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market has weakened. The USDA report has lowered US corn production and ending stocks. The US dollar index has declined, supporting the US corn futures. In the domestic market, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% completed, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to slow pig production capacity reduction, feed inventory backlog, and the supply pressure of new wheat [1] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,0360 - 78,230 yuan, up 30 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still in the stage of "irrational" tariff shock, and the high - volatility window of overseas capital markets has not ended. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening market expectations. The raw material shock is intensifying, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,600 yuan/ton and 68,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is continuously decreasing. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not enough to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak as steel mills may reduce production, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [7] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 767 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased. The domestic demand has increased, but steel mills' procurement is cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space of iron ore prices [8] Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC + has announced compensation production cuts. However, the US "reciprocal tariff" still impacts the market. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift down [9] Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic rubber supply is increasing as the domestic production area starts harvesting, and the global supply and demand are both loose [10] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 270 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [11] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [12] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is average, and the market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental drive is weak. The futures price will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]

点击蓝字，关注我们 摩根大通发布研究报告，指出 黄金牛市进入结构性新阶段，将黄金2025年Q4日标价上调至3675美元/盎 司,预计2026年Q2突破4000美元，主因是滞胀、贸易战与央行持续加仓推动结构性需求重估。 白银仍存落后补涨空间，全年均价35美元 ： 工业需求疲软令白银短期承压，但预计2025下半年随着基 本金属企稳及黄金领涨，白银有望涨至39美元2026年均价或达43美元。 原文出处 内容来源于：智通财经APP 央行需求仍是最大驱动 : 2025年料达900吨尽管已连续三年净购超千吨，摩根大通认为央行仍未完成"去 美元化"配置。新兴市场央行(如中国、印度、沙特)尤其活跃，推动黄金在官方储备中占比提升至近 20%。 投资者需求强劲 : ETF、期货与中国零售推动上涨万2025年全球黄金ETF净增715吨，其中中国增长尤为 显著(年初至今增幅超50%);同时，投资者对黄金在滞胀、衰退、政策风险下的对冲属性认同增强。 金价上涨门槛明确 : 每季度需净增350吨持仓4.若央行+投资者季度净增黄金持仓超过350吨，金价环比将 稳定上涨;每新增100吨,价格平均提升2%。当前季度均值已达710吨，支撑上调预测 ...