消息一出，美国那边立刻炸锅。美国玉米种植者协会强烈反对，表示此举令农民生计雪上加霜，本就艰难的行业面临 更大压力。美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰也发声称："农民们被这突然的变化弄得措手不及，关税问题不是闹着玩 的，不仅影响收入，更动摇了他们对市场的信心。"这话说得实在，农民本来依赖出口挣钱，这么一来，收入大打折 扣，生活难题凸显。 2025年4月，中国政府突然宣布取消了110万吨美国玉米的进口订单，这一消息在美国引起了轩然大波。要知道，这 110万吨占美国对中国年度玉米出口总量的7%，绝非小数目。美国一直认为中国不会轻易动他们的农产品，毕竟粮食 安全是国家的大事，没人会轻率对待。然而这一次，中国偏偏选择了美国自以为"最安全"的领域下手，让美国措手不 及。这背后，到底隐藏着怎样的深意？ 要理解这件事，得从中美贸易战谈起。贸易战早在2018年就爆发了，双方相互加征关税，知识产权问题也纠缠不休。 到了2025年，特朗普第二任期上台，贸易战形势愈发紧张。美国对中国商品的关税飙升至145%，中国也采取了反制 措施，加征报复性关税，双方如同两人掰腕子，谁也不愿让步。 就在这个关键时刻，中国开始深刻思考，不能总是被美国卡脖 ...

农产品早报 2025-07-14 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆小幅下跌，USDA 月报未能提供利好，且新作全球大豆期末库存被调高。北美天气较好及贸 易战可能波及出口继续施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，且近期旧作销售较好及生物柴油政策支撑需求， 整体维持区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2820 元/吨，上周油厂豆粕成交下滑，提货仍 较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 229.54 万吨，本周预计压榨 238.03 万吨。饲料企业库存天数 为 7.92（+0.01）天。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，中美大豆 关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce restored export licenses for EDA software, aviation equipment, and engines to China, marking the end of a recent ban that began in late May [1][2] - The trade dispute escalated with tariffs increasing by 125% between the U.S. and China, leading to significant trade disruptions [2][4] - The U.S. government's ban on exports was a response to China's tightening of rare earth controls, which the U.S. viewed as a retaliatory measure [2][4] Group 2 - China's strict management of rare earth exports is aimed at preventing strategic resources from being used against its interests, creating a counterbalance in negotiations [4][5] - U.S. companies, particularly in the automotive sector, face supply chain disruptions due to China's rare earth export controls, which could lead to production halts [4][6] - The U.S. has relied on smuggling to obtain rare earth materials, but recent crackdowns by China threaten this supply route [6][10] Group 3 - The U.S. export ban on ethane, EDA software, and aviation equipment may backfire, as it could also harm U.S. exports and industries reliant on these markets [12][13] - EDA software is critical for semiconductor design, but China has made significant strides in developing its own alternatives since facing U.S. sanctions [13][18] - The C919 aircraft's engine options include domestically developed alternatives, such as the AEF1200, which is positioned to meet the aircraft's power requirements [15][16][18] Group 4 - The AEF1200 engine, derived from the WS20 military engine, is designed to compete with established Western models like the CFM56, showcasing China's advancements in aviation technology [15][16] - China's approach to building a self-sufficient supply chain in response to U.S. sanctions reflects a long-term strategy to mitigate risks associated with foreign dependencies [18][19] - The recent approval of rare earth exports to major U.S. automakers under strict conditions indicates a strategic compromise to ensure the continued development of China's aviation industry [18]

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2, northbound funds held a market value of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% compared to the end of Q1, with a total of 3,572 A-shares held [1] - The top ten stocks held by northbound funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zijin Mining, Huichuan Technology, and Mindray Medical [1][2] - The net buying amounts for the top five stocks in Q2 were Ningde Times (12.58 billion yuan), Hengrui Medicine (7.36 billion yuan), Dongpeng Beverage (4.04 billion yuan), Zijin Mining (3.98 billion yuan), and WuXi AppTec (3.32 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 2 - The top five stocks with the largest net selling amounts in Q2 were Kweichow Moutai (-10.32 billion yuan), Midea Group (-8.13 billion yuan), Wuliangye (-4.27 billion yuan), BOE Technology Group (-4.16 billion yuan), and Luxshare Precision (-3.64 billion yuan) [3][4] - The interest from foreign institutions in A-shares has been increasing, with 643 foreign institutions conducting research on 4,835 A-share companies this year [5] - Key sectors attracting foreign interest include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with hot topics being AI applications, humanoid robot layouts, innovative drug development, dividends, and merger plans [5] Group 3 - UBS analyst Meng Lei predicts that after short-term fluctuations, the A-share market is expected to see some upward opportunities in the second half of the year, with a projected profit growth of around 6% for the CSI 300 index [6] - There is uncertainty regarding macroeconomic conditions, including the progress of the US-China trade war, domestic policy strength, and overall economic environment factors such as inflation and real estate trends [6] - The proportion of foreign ownership in A-shares has been declining since 2021, influenced by the pandemic and economic conditions, but may stabilize or return to 2021 levels if the Chinese economy continues to recover [6]

Group 1 - Vietnam and the United States have reached a significant agreement regarding tariffs, imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, while a higher 40% tariff will be applied to goods from third countries that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. [1] - Cambodia has also reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., expected to be similar to Vietnam's agreement, although specific details are not yet fully disclosed [1][7]. - China has expressed its stance, stating it opposes any agreements that harm its interests and will take countermeasures if necessary, indicating potential risks to its economic interests from these agreements [1][3]. Group 2 - The relationships between China and both Vietnam and Cambodia are traditionally friendly, leading to confusion among Chinese netizens regarding these countries' agreements with the U.S., which may be perceived as a betrayal [3]. - Smaller countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, lacking negotiating power, may find it necessary to align with the U.S. for survival, despite their historical ties with China [3][4]. - The agreements with the U.S. were anticipated, as these countries are not expected to serve as useful bargaining chips in the U.S.-China trade war [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong cash returns and valuation of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控), emphasizing its resilience in the shipping industry despite concerns over trade wars and capacity expansion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dividend and Returns - China COSCO Shipping Holdings implemented a dividend of 10.3 yuan per 10 shares for the annual report and 5.2 yuan for the interim report, resulting in a cash return of 10.29% for shareholders within a year [1]. - In contrast, Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) offered a lower dividend yield of 3.63% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Concerns - The dividend yield of China COSCO Shipping Holdings is 2.8 times that of Kweichow Moutai, with a low dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 times [3]. - Investor concerns stem from three main issues: trade wars leading to reduced cargo, capacity expansion causing freight rate collapse, and profit shrinkage when freight rates drop without a corresponding decrease in costs [3]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Over the past six years, China COSCO Shipping Holdings has experienced fluctuations in performance due to the pandemic and trade wars, yet maintained an average annual net profit of 48.13 billion yuan, which is 80% of Kweichow Moutai's net profit over the same period [4]. - The shipping volume has shown stability, with only a 0.78% difference between 2019 and 2024, indicating that concerns about cargo availability may be overstated [5]. Group 4: Shipping Routes and Trends - The article discusses changes in major shipping routes, noting that the trans-Pacific route saw an increase in volume during the pandemic, while the Eurasian route has declined due to reduced purchasing power in Europe [6][9]. - The Asia-Pacific routes have shown significant growth, with a volume increase of 11.2% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7][10]. Group 5: Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - Revenue from the trans-Pacific route has increased significantly despite fluctuations in shipping volume, with a revenue index of 210 in 2021 compared to 2019 [12]. - The Eurasian route has also seen a rise in revenue despite a decrease in shipping volume, with a revenue increase of 60% compared to 2019 [13]. Group 6: Cost and Profitability - The relationship between costs and prices is crucial, with shipping costs rising at a slower rate than freight rates, allowing shipping companies to maintain profitability [20][24]. - In 2024, the total cost as a percentage of revenue decreased to 65%, indicating improved profitability for China COSCO Shipping Holdings [27]. Group 7: Future Prospects - China COSCO Shipping Holdings is in discussions to acquire a stake in ports owned by Li Ka-shing, which could significantly enhance its revenue and operational capacity [32][40]. - The potential acquisition of a 25% stake in Li Ka-shing's ports could double the revenue and overseas throughput of China COSCO Shipping Holdings [40].

Group 1 - China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2018, which significantly impacts U.S. shale oil producers already struggling with falling oil prices [1][3] - The U.S. oil exports have dropped to a two-year low, exacerbating the challenges faced by shale oil companies that rely on overseas orders to manage excess capacity [3] - The recent U.S. government actions, including lifting export restrictions on ethane and key aviation components, indicate a shift in strategy as the U.S. seeks to ease tensions with China amid ongoing trade disputes [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. has allowed General Electric to resume exports of LEAP-1C engines to China, which are essential for the C919 aircraft, reflecting a significant concession in the ongoing trade conflict [5][9] - The lifting of restrictions on ethane exports to China is crucial as the Chinese market previously accounted for nearly half of U.S. ethane exports, highlighting the importance of this trade relationship [7] - The progress of China's CJ-1000A engine development for the C919 aircraft demonstrates China's commitment to achieving self-sufficiency in critical technologies, potentially undermining U.S. dominance in the aviation sector [9][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the steel and iron ore futures markets are boosted by steel mill production cut news, showing a rebound trend. For steel, with the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, steel demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the short - term steel price rebound has great pressure. For iron ore, high hot metal production and low steel mill inventories strongly support the price, but attention should be paid to the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand and steel mill production cuts on hot metal [3][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by long - position main force position - increasing. As of Friday, it closed at 3072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.57% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in major regions generally increased significantly, and overall trading improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average steel price increased by 65 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. also increased to varying degrees [5] Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.46%, a 0.36% week - on - week decrease and a 0.65% year - on - year increase; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 1.21% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 66.87%, a 3.27% week - on - week decrease and a 3.12% year - on - year decrease; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 51.05%, a 3.44% week - on - week decrease and a 2.03% year - on - year increase. The weekly steel production increased by 3.24 tons to 221.08 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Demand**: This week, the building materials trading volume and the apparent steel consumption both increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 1.12 tons to 10.85 tons, and the apparent steel consumption increased by 4.96 tons to 224.87 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent steel consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to increase slightly, while the steel inventory continued to decrease slightly. As of Friday, the total steel inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons. In absolute terms, the current steel inventory remained at a low level in the same period. Among them, the social steel inventory increased by 1.34 tons to 364.74 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 5.13 tons to 180.47 tons [7] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for steel in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a 13 - yuan increase from last week. Currently, the steel basis is near the average. It is expected that the steel basis will likely increase in the future [7] 2. Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 09 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by short - position main force position - reducing. As of Friday, it closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.23% [7][8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the price of domestic iron ore concentrate remained stable, and overall trading was average. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties at ports such as Qingdao and Tianjin changed to varying degrees [9] Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 30th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2882.3 tons, a 178.5 - ton week - on - week decrease. The 45 - port iron ore arrivals were at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons [9] - **Demand**: The current daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 319.29 tons, a 6.65 - ton week - on - week decrease; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 0.3 tons to 98.9 tons; the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a 1.44 - ton week - on - week decrease; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.81 tons, a 0.43 - ton week - on - week decrease [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 4th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons, a 51.83 - ton week - on - week decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8918.57 tons, a 71.1 - ton week - on - week increase [9] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - deliverable iron ore at Qingdao Port was 742 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a 12 - yuan decrease from last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is below the average, and it is expected that the future contraction space of the iron ore basis is limited [9]

Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Energy has been a significant area of cooperation between China and the EU over the past 50 years, with both sides having a mutual need for traditional fossil fuels [1] - Future collaboration in renewable energy is expected to increase, as both Europe and China require substantial imports of oil and natural gas, leading to numerous global partnerships in upstream oil and gas exploration [1] - Companies like Total Energy are already engaged in cooperative exploration projects with China, aiming to lower costs through joint financing and procurement of Chinese products and services [1] Group 2: Agricultural Trade - Several Chinese feed manufacturers have signed an agreement to purchase 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal, marking the first order since the 2019 agreement allowing such imports [1] - The transaction price for the soybean meal is reported to be $360 per ton, including costs and freight, with expected delivery in September to Guangdong, China [1] - This order is viewed as a "test case," with expectations for more transactions if it passes China's inspection and quarantine [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - The trade war initiated during Trump's first term has led China to reduce its reliance on the US, with significant decreases in imports of LNG, oil, meat, and soybeans from the US [3] - China has successfully negotiated contracts with other countries to replace US imports, causing anxiety in the US, particularly among industries reliant on the Chinese market [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have made US businesses wary, as escalating tariffs could significantly increase annual expenses for American households [3] Group 4: EU's Position - The EU has recognized that the US may exploit its alliance, prompting a reevaluation of its cooperation with the US against China [6] - European leaders, such as French President Macron, advocate for a "third way" that avoids taking sides in the US-China rivalry, aiming to establish a new alliance [4] - The EU's potential distancing from the US could limit America's strategic options and undermine its isolationist policies [6]

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating global rare earth conflict, with the US and Europe facing severe shortages, particularly in rare earth magnets, which are critical for their industries [1][2] - The EU's ambassador to China expressed urgent need for cooperation from China to resolve the rare earth supply crisis, indicating a shift in Europe's previously strong stance [1][2] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 90% of global supply, leaves Europe with limited alternatives, forcing them to seek assistance from China [1][2] Group 2 - The US is also experiencing a shortage of rare earths, prompting a strategic pivot towards copper as an alternative resource, with imports exceeding 500,000 tons in a few months [3][4] - The surge in copper imports is driven by fears of potential tariffs and a strategy to leverage copper in negotiations with China, highlighting the interdependence of the two economies [4][7] - Despite the importance of copper, its strategic value is considered limited compared to rare earths, as the US's reliance on copper is not as critical as Europe's dependence on rare earths [7][9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade war between the US and China is characterized as a long-term economic conflict, with both sides continuously adapting their strategies [9][12] - Recent indications of progress in US-China trade negotiations suggest that rare earths have become a pivotal point in the discussions, with potential easing of restrictions being considered [12][13] - The evolving international landscape necessitates vigilance and adaptability from both the US and China, as the competition for resources continues to shape their economic strategies [15][16]