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Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and China Feihe, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the F&B, designer toys, and home appliance sectors, including new product launches and strategic moves by key players [2][6]. - Pop Mart is reportedly exploring entry into the home appliance sector, indicating potential diversification and growth opportunities [2][6]. - The report notes a strong performance in the restaurant sector, with companies like Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group showing substantial weekly gains [3][7]. Summary by Category F&B Sector - Key performers include Xiaocaiyuan (+17.2%), Green Tea Group (+14.0%), and DPC Dash (+10.8%), while Chagee saw a decline of -7.8% [3][7]. - Guming launched a promotional campaign for freshly brewed coffee at 8.9 RMB, and Yum China introduced its first AI agent for restaurant operations [2][6]. Designer Toys Sector - Pop Mart and Miniso performed well with gains of +7.6% and +3.5% respectively, while Bloks experienced a decline of -3.9% [3][7]. - Pop Mart's inclusion in Time Magazine's list of the world's 100 most influential companies in 2025 marks a significant recognition for the brand [2][6]. Home Appliance Sector - Roborock led the home appliance sector with a +5.4% increase, while Hisense HA faced a decline of -5.6% [3][7]. - Haier announced the formation of an industrial robotics division, indicating a strategic shift towards automation and innovation in the sector [2][6].

Core Insights - Despite facing uncertainties from trade tensions and market expectations, China's industrial enterprises above designated size maintained a stable and positive development trend in the first five months of the year, particularly in the aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries, which are entering a rapid growth phase [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to January-April, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand and falling industrial product prices [1][2] - The gross profit of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits [1] - Revenue from industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend that creates favorable conditions for future profit recovery [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw significant profit growth, with profits in the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors increasing by 56.0% year-on-year [2] - Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [2] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector experienced an 85.0% profit increase, with metal ship manufacturing profits soaring by 111.8% [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Financing - The decline in profit growth for industrial enterprises indicates ongoing constraints from insufficient effective demand, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies and increased government investment in public goods [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in May was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, highlighting the need to boost effective financing demand [3] - The central bank's recent interest rate cut is expected to lower loan market rates, reducing the financial burden on industrial enterprises and aiding their recovery [3] Group 4: Policy Implementation and Sector Growth - Various regions and departments have intensified efforts to implement "two new" policies, effectively releasing domestic demand [4] - Profits in general and specialized equipment industries grew by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effects, with profits in smart consumer device manufacturing and other household electrical appliance manufacturing increasing by 101.5% and 31.2%, respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures broke through the previous oscillation range and drove the entire black - series to run strongly. The external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and the central bank and other six departments issued policies to boost the stock market. The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July, improving the domestic macro - sentiment. There is an expected game around the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - In the spot market, the trading sentiment recovered this week. Under the pattern of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and inventory reduction of coking coal, the price got a short - term rebound drive. However, due to the expected accumulation of steel inventory, the demand for furnace materials is affected, and there is pressure on the upside of the rebound. The pressure around 860 should be noted. After the fourth round of price cut of coke was implemented, and the coking coal price was supported at a low level, the average loss per ton of coke for coking enterprises increased. As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies, with the expectation of further price cuts postponed [6]. - The coking coal supply is shrinking, and the overall inventory has decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Coking enterprises replenished raw materials, and coke inventory continued to decline. Steel mills replenished coking coal and reduced coke inventory. The overall coke production remained stable, and the molten iron production changed little, supporting the coke demand. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - As of June 24, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The non - housing project capital availability rate was 61.02%, up 0.05 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project capital availability rate was 49.59%, up 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5]. - On the 26th, safety inspections in the Guxian area of Linfen became stricter. There were no new coal mine shutdowns except for 2 mines that had shut down due to belt replacement. Affected by safety inspections, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The effective operating coal mines in Guxian had a total capacity of 690 million tons, with a daily raw coal output of only 13,700 tons [7]. - Recently, the purchasing sentiment in the Luliang coking coal market has improved, and the prices of some coking coal types have increased. The new orders of some coal mines in Lishi were about 100,000 tons, and there was a phenomenon of vehicles waiting for coal. Except for lean coal, the offline prices of high - sulfur main coking coal also increased, and the auction success rate improved [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Coking coal supply has shrunk, downstream has replenished inventory in the short term, and domestic policies encourage consumption [10]. - Bearish factors: Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply contraction**: The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 82.48%, a decrease of 2.01% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 738,200 tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from last week. The opening rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week, and the daily output was 501,450 tons, a decrease of 840,000 tons from last week. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and both imports and domestic production declined significantly [12]. - **Significant weekly reduction of coking coal inventory**: As of the week of June 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.6309 billion tons, a reduction of 360,600 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3187 billion tons, a reduction of 55,200 tons from last week; the port inventory was 2.8559 billion tons, a reduction of 177,200 tons from last week [14]. - **Coking enterprises replenish raw materials and coke inventory continues to decline**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.0898 billion tons, an increase of 131,900 tons. The available days of inventory were 9.43 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.1303 billion tons, a reduction of 25,500 tons [17]. - **Steel mills replenish coking coal and reduce coke inventory**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8121 billion tons, an increase of 65,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.39 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2775 billion tons, a reduction of 64,500 tons from the previous period, and the available days were 11.22 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [21]. - **Stable overall coke production**: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 645,100 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.46%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 474,300 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [25]. - **Little change in molten iron production, supporting coke demand**: As of the week of June 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0903 billion tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4229 billion tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The blast furnace opening rate was 83.82%, the same as last week [26]. - **The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed**: As of the week of June 27, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week. With the coking coal price running strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The futures market has stabilized and rebounded first, and the spot trading has been active and stabilized [30]. 3.4后市研判 - Recently, the external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and domestic policies improved the macro - sentiment. The spot market trading sentiment recovered this week. Coking coal has a short - term rebound drive, but there is pressure on the upside due to the expected steel inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 860 [32]. - As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies. The expectation of further price cuts is postponed. In the short term, the coke futures will fluctuate with the cost - side coking coal [35].

Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that in July, the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade program will be released, indicating a continued focus on "people's livelihood" over infrastructure, which may support stock market resilience [1][2][3] - The banking sector has reached a historical high, with the current dividend yield spread over the 10-year government bond yield at approximately 2.36%, which is at the 16% low percentile level since 2008, suggesting that the historical context may indicate a lower actual percentile [1][3] - Despite the low yield spread, it does not imply a significant adjustment for bank stocks, as the scarcity of assets in a low-interest-rate environment has reduced the risk premium for high-dividend sectors, indicating potential opportunities in the banking industry, albeit with lowered expectations [1][3] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking index rose by 1.06%, continuing to set historical highs, with the median dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the China Securities Banking Index dropping to 4.00% [3] - The low interest rate environment has altered the risk premium dynamics, suggesting that the banking sector may still present opportunities despite the current low yield levels [3] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a larger decline than the A-share market, primarily due to the Hong Kong dollar reaching the weak side of the convertibility guarantee, leading to tightened liquidity [4] - Despite the tightening liquidity, there is still a continuous inflow of southbound funds, which may support the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. The double - coking market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term, and the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom. The ferroalloy market is expected to be oscillating strongly [5][6][9][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: On June 26, the NDRC announced policies including issuing the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July, implementing equipment renewal loan interest subsidies, and having 200 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal. In mid - June, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.148 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel was 2.77 million tons, a 1.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Price**: The rebar price in Shanghai is 3,060 yuan (- 10), in Beijing is 3,150 yuan (- 10); the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,180 yuan (-), in Tianjin is 3,100 yuan (-) [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector rose last night, with coal and coke leading. Steel production increased this week, exports decreased, and the apparent demand is expected to weaken. Some blast furnaces started to reduce production, but the incentive for steel mills to cut production is low due to high profits. The steel price is oscillating at the bottom in the short term and may decline in the medium - to - long term [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - maintain bottom - side oscillation; Arbitrage - hold the 10 - 01 reverse spread; Option - wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: From July 11 to July 15, Mongolian ports will be closed for the Naadam Festival, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles is expected to decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.82%, unchanged from last week [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron water output increased slightly this week, and the supply of coking coal is temporarily reduced. The spot market sentiment has improved, and the fourth - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The double - coking fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - wait and see, and consider shorting at high levels in the medium term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Option - wait and see; Spot - futures - pay attention to spot - futures positive spread opportunities [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 26, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 872,000 tons, a 19% decrease from the previous day. The night - session iron ore price rose 1.2%, and the PB powder spot price in Qingdao Port is 701 yuan (- 1) [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of mainstream mines is stable, and the demand for iron ore remains high. The current market focuses on whether the weak reality in the off - season can be continuously traded. Considering the low valuation of the black sector and the positive spread structure, the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - wait and see [17]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: UMK announced the price of South African semi - carbonate lump manganese ore for China in July 2025 at $3.85 per ton - degree, a decrease of $0.05 [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon - iron spot price is slightly stronger, and the manganese - silicon market is also showing a strong trend. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - sell call options at high levels [17][19].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 铁矿石市场周报 铁水产量回升 铁矿期价先抑后扬 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 6. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加16.45个百分点。 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 吨，年同比-1066.09万吨。247家钢厂进口矿库存为8847.47万吨，环比-88.77万吨。 1. 宏观方面:海外，（1）伊朗接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在的 核协议展开会谈。（2）美联储主席鲍威尔表示，由于关税的影响，预计美国通货膨胀将会上升，利率的变化将取决于 经济的走向。国内，（1）央行于6月25日开展3000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，较当月1820亿元到期量实现超额续 作，净投放达1180亿元，这是央行连续第四个月加量操作。（2）国家发改委表示，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7 月下 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 沪铜市场周报 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 铜矿供给预期改善，沪铜或将震荡偏强 研究员:王福辉 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线偏强运行，周线涨跌幅为+2.47%，振幅2.42%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价79920元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国第一季度实际GDP终值年化环比下降0.5%，降幅高于预期的下降0.2%，三年来首次出现萎缩。 个人消费终值大幅下调至仅增长0.5%，创下自新冠疫情爆发以来的最弱季度表现。核心PCE物价指数上修至3.5%，通胀 压力仍在。国内方面，国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。随着存量政策加 快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健 康发展。基本面矿端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续运行于负值区间，年中长协谈判进展超 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-27） | | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。本期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。 | | | | | | 铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的 | | | | | | 局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，板块跟 | | | | | | 随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势拉涨。焦炭方面，钢厂打压焦炭，对焦企第四轮提降落 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China have shown a decline due to multiple factors including insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and fluctuations in short-term factors, despite an increase in revenue and gross profit [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Trends - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 9.1% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the first five months [1][2]. - The total profit for these enterprises in the first five months reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2]. - The high base of investment income from the previous year negatively impacted profit growth, dragging down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Gross Profit - Despite the decline in profits, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.7% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit, calculated by deducting operating costs from revenue, grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits [2]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The mining industry saw a profit decline of 29.0%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 5.4% [3]. - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit growth of 3.7% [3]. - The equipment manufacturing sector's profits rose by 7.2%, significantly supporting overall industrial profit growth [3]. Group 4: Emerging Industries - The "Three Aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) have driven significant profit growth in related sectors, with profits in these areas increasing by 56.0% [3]. - The aircraft manufacturing sector saw a remarkable profit increase of 120.7%, while the aerospace and rocket manufacturing sectors also reported substantial growth [3]. Group 5: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy, aimed at promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, has led to a doubling of profits in the smart consumer device manufacturing sector [5]. - The general and specialized equipment manufacturing sectors also reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing to overall industrial profit growth [5][6].