Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods trade-in is highly anticipated, with suggestions to increase the funding from 300 billion to 500 billion yuan to further stimulate consumption and support economic transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The Chinese government plans to issue 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer goods trade-in in 2024, with the subsidy amount increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, ensuring balanced fund distribution throughout the year [1]. - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly benefited consumers and boosted sales of related products, with over 25 trillion yuan in sales generated from trade-ins, impacting more than 360 million people [1]. - The policy has led to substantial trade-in figures, including over 11.2 million cars, 12.8 million home appliances, and 9 million digital products [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Recommendations - Experts suggest that the funding for the trade-in policy should be increased to 500 billion yuan in 2026 to further stimulate domestic demand [3]. - There is a recommendation to shift the focus of subsidies from goods to service consumption, and to consider cash subsidies and digital currency as part of the support measures [3][4]. - The current effectiveness of the "National Subsidy" policy is declining due to previous demand being pulled forward and the need for improved supporting policies [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the previous year [5]. - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the need to enhance consumer spending and address the challenges of insufficient effective demand [5]. - The ongoing implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy has led to a noticeable increase in the consumption growth rate, although there are concerns about a potential decline in growth rates in the latter half of 2025 due to diminishing policy effects [3][4].

第一财经记者今年实地调研发现，"国补"政策不仅让老百姓直接受益，而且也带动了相关纳入"国补"范 围的产品销售，带动厂家业绩增长，并推动相关产业转型。 商务部数据显示，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 消费者热情高涨之下，国补资金也被快速消耗。近期全国至少有20个地市陆续暂停或调整了汽车以旧换 新补贴申请。一些地方消费品以旧换新补贴券"秒光"。 那么2026年"国补"政策会继续吗？ 为大力提振消费，专家认为明年国补会继续 今年国家财政对消费品以旧换新补贴（下称"国补"）即将结束，明年是否继续备受关注。 多名接受第一财经采访的专家建议，明年继续实施"国补"政策，额度可以在今年3000亿元基础上有所提 高，比如提高至5000亿元，并继续优化资金投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消 费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用 ...

12月3日，商务部数据显示，今年前11个月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超 3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆。 作者丨彭鑫 编辑丨安安 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing a steady and progressive development trend, with various sectors indicating positive growth and stability in recent months [1]. Group 1: Logistics Industry - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was reported at 50.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The business volume index across eastern, central, and western regions of China is relatively balanced, indicating stable demand in the logistics sector [4]. - The postal and express delivery industry saw a business volume index of 70.2%, with growth driven by offline entities, social e-commerce platforms, and comprehensive e-commerce platforms [4]. Group 2: Service Trade - From January to October, China's total service trade import and export amounted to 65,844.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [6]. - Service exports reached 29,090.3 billion yuan, growing by 14.3%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 2,693.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - Knowledge-intensive service trade maintained growth, with imports and exports totaling 25,121.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% [6]. Group 3: Consumer Goods - From January to November, the "old-for-new" consumption policy led to sales exceeding 25,000 billion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The program included over 11.2 million vehicles, 12.8 million home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products being replaced under the initiative [9]. Group 4: Telecommunications Industry - The telecommunications industry in China has shown overall stability in the first ten months of 2025, with significant growth in user numbers for 5G, gigabit broadband, and the Internet of Things [10]. - By the end of October, the number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, accounting for 64.7% of mobile phone users [12]. - Mobile internet traffic has also seen rapid growth, exceeding 3,200 billion GB, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [12].

早盘速递 2025/12/4 热点资讯 1.美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储降息预期进一步升温。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少 3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基 点的概率接近90%。 2.据硅业分会，展望12月，根据各企业排产计划，国内多晶硅产量预计仍将维持在12万吨以内，环比小幅回升，增量主要来自 通威等企业的检修复产以及其他企业的复产爬坡。 冠通期货研究咨询部 王 静，执业资格证号F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 第 3 页，共 3 页 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、碳酸锂、沪锡、PVC 夜盘表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓 ...

Economic Overview - China's economy shows a steady growth trend, with the logistics industry maintaining an expansionary stance in November [1] - The logistics industry prosperity index for November is reported at 50.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [3] Logistics Industry Insights - The logistics business volume index across eastern, central, and western regions of China is relatively balanced [3] - Demand sectors indicate a rebound in manufacturing, a slowdown in energy, and stable consumption [3] - Key industries such as transportation equipment, home appliances, smart devices, and automotive parts are experiencing strong demand [3] - The postal and express delivery business volume index for November stands at 70.2%, with offline entities, social e-commerce platforms, and comprehensive e-commerce platforms performing steadily [3] Service Trade Performance - In the first ten months, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 65,844.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] - Service exports reached 29,090.3 billion yuan, growing by 14.3%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 2,693.9 billion yuan [5] - Knowledge-intensive service trade continues to grow, with imports and exports amounting to 25,121.5 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase [5] - The surplus in knowledge-intensive services expanded by 1,036 billion yuan compared to the previous year, reaching 4,254.3 billion yuan [5] Consumer Goods Market - From January to November, the "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales of related goods exceeding 25,000 billion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [7] - The automotive sector saw over 11.2 million vehicles replaced, while home appliances and digital products also experienced significant upgrades [7] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative [7] Telecommunications Sector - The telecommunications industry has shown overall stability in the first ten months of the year [9] - The user base for 5G, gigabit broadband, and the Internet of Things continues to expand, with 5G mobile phone users reaching 1.184 billion, accounting for 64.7% of mobile phone users [9] - Mobile internet traffic has seen a robust growth, exceeding 320 billion GB, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the old-for-new consumption policy in China has significantly boosted sales, exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, benefiting over 360 million people [1] Group 2 - The old-for-new program has led to the replacement of over 1.12 million vehicles [1] - The program has facilitated the replacement of more than 12.84 million home appliances [1] - Subsidies for new purchases of mobile phones and digital products have exceeded 9.015 million units [1] - The initiative has resulted in the replacement of over 1.29 million electric bicycles [1] - The home renovation and kitchen and bathroom upgrades have seen over 120 million items renewed [1]

Macro Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2025, China's service trade totaled 65,844.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [2] - Service exports reached 29,090.3 billion yuan, growing by 14.3%, while imports amounted to 36,754 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6% [2] - The service trade deficit was 7,663.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,693.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued an action plan to promote the integration of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, aiming for improved travel services and broader coverage of domestic and international routes by 2027 [3] - The plan emphasizes tailored services for specific travel groups, including senior travelers, educational tours, family trips, winter sports tourism, and inbound tourism [3] Market Data - In November 2025, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.504 million units, up 20% compared to the previous year [5] - Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in November were 1.72 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 13.777 million units, up 29% [5] Consumer Trends - From January to November 2025, the trade-in of consumer goods generated over 25,000 billion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people [6] - Notable trade-ins included over 11.2 million vehicles, 12.844 million home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products [6] Company News - China International Capital Corporation, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced continued suspension of their A-shares due to major asset restructuring plans [8] - New China Life Insurance's independent director Ma Yaotian resigned due to the expiration of his term, effective December 3, 2025 [9] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised the minimum investment for its three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit to 1 million yuan, while the industry standard is around 200,000 yuan [10][11] Stock Market Performance - On December 3, 2025, A-shares saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% [12] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a downturn, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.28% [13] Corporate Developments - Moore Threads is set to be listed on the STAR Market on December 5, 2025 [14] - Guizhou Bailing's actual controller is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for insider trading and other violations [14] - Zhong Guodong has been appointed as the General Manager of China Huaneng Group [15][16] - Airbus has revised its 2025 delivery target for civil aircraft down to approximately 790 units due to supply chain issues [17]

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is advancing the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing the importance of strengthening and optimizing state-owned enterprises and capital [1] - SASAC Director Zhang Yuzhuo highlighted the need to focus on enhancing the "five values," planning major projects, and promoting high-quality development of central enterprises to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [1] Group 2 - In the first eleven months, the old-for-new consumption policy in China has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [2] - The old-for-new program includes over 11.2 million vehicles, more than 12.84 million home appliances, over 9.015 million digital products, and over 1.291 million electric bicycles [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Natural Resources will promote breakthroughs in deep-sea exploration and development [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumer goods sales in China, with a total sales volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan from January to November this year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The trade-in program has driven sales of various consumer goods, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - Specifically, the automotive sector saw over 11.2 million vehicles traded in, while home appliances experienced over 12.844 million units exchanged [1] - Digital products, including mobile phones, received subsidies for over 9.015 million new purchases, and electric bicycles had over 1.291 million units traded in [1] Group 2: Market Segments - The home renovation and kitchen appliance sector also saw significant activity, with over 120 million items being renewed [1]