据了解，2025年，广东消费品以旧换新累计核销金额318.3亿元，拉动销售额2628亿元，6058.5万人次享受补贴。日前，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已向地 方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 根据2026年国家消费品以旧换新补贴政策，对个人消费者购买单件销售价格不超过6000元的手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品，按产品销售 价格的15%给予补贴，每名消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过500元。 此外，个人消费者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类家电中1级能效或水效标准的产品，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每名消费者每 类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过1500元。 2026年1月1日，随着新年钟声敲响，广东新年消费品以旧换新活动（即"国补"活动）正式启动。零点刚过，广州完成首笔线下使用以旧换新补贴的消费，标 志着该政策顺利落地实施。记者从省商务厅了解到，在国家以旧换新平台的支持下，这是今年全国首笔落地的以旧换新"国补"订单。 2026年1月1日零时，广东新年消费品以旧换新活动（即"国补"活动）正式启动。图为吴女士正在为新购买的手机付 ...

2026年1月1日，随着新年钟声敲响，广东新年消费品以旧换新活动（即"国补"活动）正式启动。零点刚过，广州完成首笔线下使用以旧换新补贴的消费，标 志着该政策顺利落地实施。记者从省商务厅方面了解到，在国家以旧换新平台的支持下，这是今年全国首笔落地的以旧换新"国补"订单。 据省商务厅消息，广东省21个市均在1月1日启动2026年"国补"活动。首笔交易发生在广州京东MALL，为扩大新年促消费政策效果，该商场实行跨年营业。 市民吴女士使用以旧换新补贴购买了一部vivo智能手机，成为今年全国首位通过该补贴政策完成交易的消费者。 吴女士表示，她此前通过公开渠道关注到2026年"国补"的相关信息，提前预约来线下店买新手机，尝到了新政策的"头啖汤"。她在京东MALL现场根据指引 完成相关操作，通过云闪付APP领取了以旧换新补贴资格。她购买的手机原价为5999元，在享受国家以旧换新补贴500元的基础上，叠加平台及品牌优惠 后，最终到手价为4849元。"这次政策叠加下来很优惠，使用广发银行分期还能享受88元还款金，办理流程也很简便、流畅。"吴女士说。 同日零时许，在京东MALL的新年车展现场，一辆崭新的广汽埃安i60新能源SUV ...

投资信息如迷雾？市场节奏总踏空？那是你缺少利器！想精准捕捉研报价值？想抢占投资先机？《行研 精选》为你破局！覆盖每个交易日，从事件中发现机会，提炼研报精华，助力捕捉行业风口。 【 精选快读 】 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》，其中提出：2026年将延续并优化汽车以旧换新政策，通过超长期特别国债资金支持汽车 报废更新与置换更新。 前言 一、 汽车行业再迎"国补"强心剂，春节前后板块行情或具持续性 汽车行业再迎利好政策。 12月30日，财政部 税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确2026年1月1日 起，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的 征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 点击付费阅读，挖掘行业机会，把握投资风口！ 二、 个人销售住房增值税降了，地产链估值修复或加速 ...

Group 1 - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of 34.49 billion HKD in the Hong Kong stock market on December 31, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 30.97 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 3.51 billion HKD [1] - The total net purchase of Northbound capital for the year reached a historical high of 1.41 trillion HKD, significantly increasing from approximately 807.9 billion HKD in 2024 [1] - The most purchased stocks by Northbound capital included China Merchants Bank (03968), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), and China Construction Bank (00939) [1] Group 2 - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net purchase of 850 million HKD, while Tencent Holdings (00700) faced a net sell of 660 million HKD [2] - China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank received net purchases of 7.24 billion HKD, 5.88 billion HKD, and 5.61 billion HKD respectively [4] - Semiconductor stocks also saw increased investment, with SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) receiving net purchases of 391 million HKD and 69.94 million HKD respectively [5] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net purchase of 237 million HKD, supported by government policies promoting consumption [5] - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) had a net purchase of 158 million HKD, while Zijin Mining (02899) experienced a net sell of 682 million HKD [6] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) received a net purchase of 86.86 million HKD, as it announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Fenglong Co. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong - side adjustment in the short - term, with attention on the support of MA5 and testing the previous high resistance level of 136,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Stainless steel futures prices are expected to have a strong - side adjustment, and attention should be paid to the upper range of 13,200 - 13,600 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel continued to rise, with a weekly gain of +4.81% and an amplitude of 8.99%. As of this week's close, the main contract was quoted at 132,850 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed meeting minutes showed that "most" officials expected it to be suitable to continue cutting interest rates after December, and some advocated staying put for "some time". In 2026, the plan for the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones has been advanced [7]. - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is expected to decline. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, causing market concerns about the tightening of raw material supply. In the smelting sector, Indonesia's nickel - iron production remains high, and the volume flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate - product raw materials and profit losses have led to some production cuts, the production volume is still at a high level, and cost support has increased. In terms of demand, the price of nickel - iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has fallen, and steel mill profits have improved, with expected high production volume. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [7]. - Domestically, nickel inventories continue to accumulate. The market mainly makes purchases during price pull - backs, and the spot premium is at a high level. Overseas LME inventory growth has slowed down. Technically, trading volume has increased and positions have been added, with a strong bullish sentiment [7]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel continued to rise, with a weekly gain of +1.31% and an amplitude of 2.78%. As of this week's close, the main contract was quoted at 13,125 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of raw materials, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, causing the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants to tighten. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. Under the situation of shrinking raw material supply, nickel - iron production will face production - cut pressure. In terms of supply, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes has begun to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, the market's arrivals are also limited, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline. Technically, positions have increased and prices have risen, with a growing bullish sentiment [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Price Changes - As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 132,850 yuan/ton, up 4,850 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - As of December 31, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 915 yuan/nickel, up 15 yuan/nickel from last week [13]. 3.2.2 Basis Changes - As of December 31, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 137,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 425 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3 Ratio Changes - As of December 31, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the SHFE was 10.12, up 0.33 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the SHFE was 2.43 yuan/ton, down 0.24 from last week [26]. 3.2.4 Net Long Position Changes - As of December 31, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 54,386 lots, a decrease of 1,322 lots from December 25, 2025. - As of December 31, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 14,200 lots, an increase of 2,118 lots from December 25, 2025 [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Electrolytic Nickel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 13.7647 million tons, a decrease of 626,700 tons from last week. As of December 31, the production profit of electrolytic nickel was 18,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,250 yuan/ton from last week [38][39]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import Volume**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [44]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of January 2, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. As of December 31, the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 tons, an increase of 426 tons from last week [51][52]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In November 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4931 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Among them, the production of the 400 series was 689,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%; the production of the 300 series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the production of the 200 series was 1.042 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. In November 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. From January, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [56]. - **Inventory in Foshan and Wuxi**: As of December 26, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [61]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of December 31, the stainless steel production profit was 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Real Estate and Home Appliance Industries**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [70]. - **Automobile and Machinery Industries**: In November 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; sales were 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the medium - and large - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - sized tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [73].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation details of the large-scale equipment update and consumer goods trade-in policy for 2026 have been officially clarified, aiming to boost consumption and support various sectors through subsidies [1][9]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued a notification on December 30, 2023, detailing the implementation of the 2026 consumer goods trade-in policy [1][9]. - The policy includes subsidies for six categories of household appliances and four categories of digital and smart products, providing a 15% subsidy on the final sales price after discounts, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan for appliances and 500 yuan for digital products per person per category [1][9]. Group 2: Automotive Trade-in Subsidies - The 2026 policy will continue to provide subsidies for vehicle scrapping and replacement, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for scrapping eligible passenger vehicles and 15,000 yuan for purchasing new vehicles [6][16]. - As of December 28, 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles had participated in the trade-in program, generating over 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales [7][15]. Group 3: Local Implementation and Flexibility - Local governments are allowed to determine specific subsidy categories and standards within the framework of the national policy, encouraging support for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly products [3][13]. - The policy framework allows local regions to use their allocated funds to support additional categories, including smart home products, while ensuring that the implementation remains effective and efficient [4][13]. Group 4: Rural Engagement - The policy emphasizes increasing participation from rural areas by enhancing offline business presence and guiding online channels to serve rural residents, ensuring they can access the subsidies [5][14]. - Local governments are encouraged to develop balanced subsidy funding and disbursement plans to ensure smooth transitions between months and quarters [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation details of the "old-for-new" consumption policy for 2026, which aims to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances, through subsidies provided by the government [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued specific guidelines for the "old-for-new" policy, including subsidies for six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital and smart products, with a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price after discounts [1][4]. - The policy allows local governments to determine the categories and standards of subsidies within the national framework, encouraging support for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly products [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Support and Subsidy Details - The central government will continue to allocate special long-term bonds to support the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, with local governments required to match funding proportionally [4]. - For automobiles, the policy includes a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new ones, with specific percentages based on the type of vehicle [6][8]. - As of December 28, 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles have been replaced under the "old-for-new" policy, generating over 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales [7]. Group 3: Rural and Local Implementation - The policy emphasizes the importance of ensuring rural residents, especially in remote areas, can participate in the subsidy program by increasing offline business entities and guiding online channels to serve rural areas [5]. - Local governments are encouraged to create balanced plans for the use and disbursement of subsidy funds, ensuring smooth transitions between months and quarters [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures will undergo a bullish adjustment, suggesting attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton, with potential upside targets between 23600 - 24000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% and an amplitude of 2.03%. The closing price of the main contract was 23275 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, most Fed officials expect further rate cuts after December, and 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined, domestic smelters' winter raw material reserves have started, and processing fees have dropped, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing production. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, but there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. Domestic inventories continue to decline while LME inventory accumulation is slowing [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc futures was 23275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (0.19%) from December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3130 US dollars/ton, up 57.5 US dollars/ton (1.87%) from December 22 [9] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of December 31, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was 5416 lots, a decrease of 3131 lots from December 24. The open interest was 195442 lots, a decrease of 6438 lots (3.19%) from December 24 [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of December 31, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton from December 24. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from December 24 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 31, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23360 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.3%) from December 24. The spot premium was 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 30, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 32.22 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton from December 19 [22] - **Inventory Changes**: As of December 30, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106325 tons, an increase of 6425 tons (6.43%) from December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69793 tons, a decrease of 3170 tons (4.34%) from last week. As of December 29, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons (11.49%) from December 22 [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 519018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [31] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108400 tons (9.76%); the consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44200 tons (3.76%); the supply gap was 600 tons, compared with a gap of 64800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35700 tons in September 2024 [36][37] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Output**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc output was 654000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [40] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import of refined zinc was 18229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export was 42815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [43] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets of major domestic enterprises was 942600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import of galvanized sheets was 36700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export was 317900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [46][47] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%, among which personal mortgage loans were 117.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [52][53] - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year [58][59] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output in November was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [61] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3428998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3531579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪铜市场周报 假期临近库存积累，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.49%，振幅6.74%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价98240元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会 者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。国内方面， 2026年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》， 同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC加工指数现货小幅下行，矿紧预期持续，铜价 成本支撑逻辑坚固。供给端，在原料供给持续偏紧以及假期将至的影响下，铜冶炼产能或将逐步收敛，国内精铜供给量增 速逐渐放缓。需求端，铜价冲高回落后修复力度较 ...