尽管如此，鲍威尔在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔会议上，似乎并不打算轻易给出明确的政策转向信号。部分原因在于，市场对于9月降息的预期并非毫无争议。 一方面，尽管整体通胀率有所回落，但仍未稳定降至美联储设定的2%目标之下，特别是近期关税措施对进口商品价格的抬升作用，正逐步显现，为通胀前 景增添了不确定性。另一方面，经济学家们正就近期就业市场表现展开激烈辩论：就业增长放缓，究竟是反映了企业对劳动力需求的减弱，还是劳动力供应 端的限制所致？若问题根源在于后者，那么进一步降息非但不能有效提振就业，反而可能加剧通胀压力，违背美联储的双重使命——促进就业最大化与保持 价格稳定。 牛津经济研究院的副首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯，在其最新发布的研究报告中指出："关税政策的影响正以不均衡的方式渗透至经济各个层面，预计在 未来几个月内，将继续推高通胀水平。对于政策制定者而言，从更为持久的通胀压力中剥离出由关税引起的暂时性波动，将是一项极具挑战性的任务。"基 于这一判断，皮尔斯认为，除非有确凿证据显示经济活动显著放缓，特别是8月份的就业报告出现大幅下滑，否则美联储可能会选择按兵不动，至少维持利 率不变直至12月份的会议。 杰克逊霍尔央行会 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Stone Technology (石头科技) Key Points Industry Overview - The company operates in the home cleaning appliance industry, focusing on robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washing machines [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the robotic vacuum cleaner business generated revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][5]. - The net profit margin for the robotic vacuum cleaner business was 17% in H1 2025 and improved to 18% in Q2 2025 [2][6]. - The floor washing machine business saw revenue of approximately 1.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a fourfold increase year-on-year, with Q2 revenue exceeding 700 million yuan, a sevenfold increase [2][7]. Market Share and Growth - Domestic market share for robotic vacuum cleaners increased from 23% in H1 2024 to 27.2% in H1 2025, achieving the top position during the 618 shopping festival [3][4]. - In the overseas market, the company achieved a 40% market share in Germany, with Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, France) at 8.5%, 11%, and 15% respectively, and the UK market doubled to 15% [2][3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, the company began production in Vietnam in October 2024, which significantly reduced tariff costs for North American supply [4][9]. - The company plans to launch a lawn mower product by the end of 2025, leveraging its existing capabilities in robotic vacuum technology [4][16][23]. Product Development and Innovation - The company introduced the Z1 Plus and Z1 Pro washing and drying machines, along with a collaboration with Hello Kitty for a small washing machine [2][8]. - Despite technological advantages, the company faces challenges in a mature market, leading to adjustments in strategy to control costs and improve efficiency [8][14]. Challenges and Risks - The company has faced pressure on profit margins due to U.S. tariff policies, with the first quarter of 2025 seeing a significant impact from increased tariffs [6][9]. - The washing machine segment has been underperforming, with ongoing losses despite two years of investment [14]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates improvements in the washing machine segment's profitability through strategic adjustments in the second half of 2025 [13]. - The overseas expansion of the washing machine business is expected to contribute positively to profits, with successful entries into markets like South Korea, Australia, and Singapore [12][18]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - High inventory levels are attributed to the company's own manufacturing capabilities and the need for stock in response to North American market demands [15]. - Cash flow in Q2 2025 was negatively impacted by increased procurement costs and market expansion efforts [12]. Conclusion Stone Technology has demonstrated strong growth in its robotic vacuum cleaner segment, with significant market share gains both domestically and internationally. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and underperformance in the washing machine segment necessitate strategic adjustments to maintain profitability and market position. The company's focus on innovation and overseas expansion is expected to drive future growth.

Group 1 - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will include hundreds of derivative products, effective August 18 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the tariff list due to their steel and aluminum content, with specific tariffs applicable to non-steel and aluminum components [1] - The tariffs on steel and aluminum are the highest since the 1930s, leading to increased production costs for manufacturers and potentially higher prices for consumers [2] Group 2 - U.S. Aluminum Company reported a $20 million increase in production costs in Q1 due to tariff policies, and a $115 million increase in Q2 as a result of tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Approximately 70% of aluminum produced by the U.S. Aluminum Company in Canada is sold to the U.S., where customers are now paying higher prices than in other global markets [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly higher than June's zero growth, indicating rising cost pressures for U.S. businesses [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose semiconductor tariffs, potentially reaching up to 300%, within two weeks [3] - The PPI increase was primarily driven by the service sector, with a notable 1.1% rise in service producer prices, the largest since March 2022 [4] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also saw a 0.9% month-over-month increase, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4]

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为775.08元/克，下跌0.01%。 国际黄金价格报3385.0美元/盎司，上涨0.07%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 美国财长呼吁降息：美国财长贝森特敦促美联储降息，明确呼吁启动降息周期，称基准利率应比目前 至少低1.5个百分点。这加剧市场对美联储下月降息的预期，部分押注指向大幅降息。利率下调通常利 好不生息的黄金，推动纽约尾盘现货黄金涨0.22%。 2. 关税政策与地缘政治：特朗普相关关税表态及地缘政治局势影响黄金价格。如宣布多件大事，包括半 导体和药品关税、对印度和欧盟关税警告等，此前关税"乌龙"消息也使金价大幅波动。同时，地缘冲突 如以色列局势、俄乌问题等增加市场避险情绪。 3. 经济数据表现：美国经济数据影响市场对美联储货币政策预期。如7月CPI数据通胀涨幅温和，为美 联储9月启动降息提供支撑；"小非农"、GDP等数据也影响金价走势，数据好坏影响市场对经济状况判 断，进而影响黄金投资需求。 走势展望点评 黄金价格近期波动频繁，受美国财长降息呼吁、关税政策及经济数据等多因素影响。短期来看，市场对 美联储9月降息预期升温，为 ...

黄金市场上周：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，几乎收复前两周涨幅，但仍处于中轨上方，且布林带也趋向缩口，暗示后市仍将维持震荡调整为主波动，并在方 向上方，仍趋向向上攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3398.34美元/盎司，便先行录得当周高点3404.51美元后，则遇阻回落，日跌超1.6%，跌幅55美金，虽而收取止跌形态，周三 到周四也止跌震荡回升表现，但周四反弹的多头未能持稳，最终回落收复前两日反弹涨幅，微幅刷新周二低点至3329.84美元当周低点，周五震荡偏弱， 收于3336.11美元，周振幅74.67美元，收跌62.23美元，跌幅1.83%。 影响上，受到中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天，以及黄金税谣言的破除等，金价遇阻回落，虽然由于特朗普再次炮轰鲍威尔应立即降息，美财长也甚至建 议降息50个基点，投资者也基本锁定美联储9月降息，令金价止跌震荡回升； 张尧浠：地缘会晤压力有限、降息加关税预再助金价多头 周图，金价自去年开涨攀升以来，如期第4次回踩中轨线支撑展开震荡调整，虽然附图指标一直处于空头信号发展，但持续处于中轨上方的震荡调整，也 是在消耗空头压力，那么对于后市来讲，大概率也将震荡调整之后，再度向上走强攀升。 ...

当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%。该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。 美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，扩大的关税清单将于8月18日正式生 效。 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 美国劳工部发布的最新数据显示，美国7月份PPI（生产者价格指数）环比上涨0.9%，大幅高于6月份的 零增长和市场预期的0.2%，为2022年6月以来的最大涨幅；该指数同比涨幅为3.3%，大幅高于6月份的 2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，为今年2月以来的最高水平。 美国劳工部的数据还显示，7月份PPI上涨主要被服务业驱动。服务业生产者价格指数当月环 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing the tariff rate to 50% on hundreds of derivative products, effective August 18 [1] - The U.S. aluminum company reported that the tariff policy increased its production costs by $20 million in Q1 and $115 million in Q2 due to tariffs on Canadian products [2] - The current steel and aluminum tariffs are the highest since the 1930s, leading to increased prices for these materials and potentially higher costs for manufacturers and consumers [2] Group 2 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a significant increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), rising 0.9% in July, the largest increase since June 2022, driven mainly by the service sector [4] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Chicago Fed President expressed concerns about inflation due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, suggesting that service prices may not be temporary and are on the rise [4]

公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%。该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 ...

日本政府近期公布一系列经济数据，上市企业近来也密集披露今年第二季度财报，共同印证了一个结 果：特朗普汽车关税和"对等关税"政策重创日本汽车产业，掣肘日本经济复苏。 财务省公布的贸易统计数据显示，4月至6月，受特朗普关税政策影响，日本对美出口连续3个月同比下 降，且降幅现扩大之势。由于美国汽车关税自4月起由2.5%大幅提升至27.5%，日本对美汽车出口额锐 减，6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7%。 《日本经济新闻》援引财务省数据报道说，6月日本国内对美汽车出口降幅最大的是九州地区，出口量 同比减少67.8%，出口额同比减少76.3%。报道指出，汽车产业是日本经济的核心产业，辐射范围广 泛，出口大降将波及到零部件相关产业，对区域经济造成打击。 此间媒体和专家评论说，汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国对汽车类产品 加征25%关税对日本出口影响巨大。为了对冲关税政策影响，日本汽车制造商被迫采取降价策略，这势 必挤压厂商的盈利空间。 日本汽车制造商中马自达和斯巴鲁在美国市场的销售对出口依赖度最高，受汽车关税的冲击最为严重。 马自达此前发表财报说，今年第二季度公司虽然在日本国内市场销量增长，但 ...

"随着美国关税政策逐步落地，我国钢材出口可能下降，利空钢坯和板材相关产品。"刘慧峰说。 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 "上述关税政策针对全球的钢铁和铝产品，扩大的征税范围主要包括以下两类产品：一是含有钢铁和铝 的中间产品和半成品，如钢坯、板坯等。二是由钢铁和铝制成的金属结构件、容器、紧固件等。值得注 意的是，上述关税政策与'对等关税'不叠加，之前中美贸易谈判达成的协议也不适用于钢铁和铝产 品。"东海期货黑色金属首席研究员刘慧峰说。 华闻期货首席黑色分析师胡万斌告诉期货日报记者，上述关税政策对我国钢材直接出口的影响较为有 限，对间接出口影响相对较大。不过，如果考虑到当前美国钢材价格远高于国际市场价格，上述关税政 策对美国钢材及相关衍生品进口量的实际影 ...