【要闻速递】 周三（7月9日），特朗普宣布自8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品以及铜产品征收高达50%的关税，震惊全 球市场。更令人关注的是，特朗普还在本周早些时候针对14个国家发布了关税通知，其中包括对韩国和 日本进口商品征收25%的关税，并威胁称若无法达成协议，关税将于8月1日正式生效。此外，特朗普又 于周三新增了对七个次要贸易伙伴的关税通知，进一步扩大了贸易战的影响范围。 这些激进的关税措施不仅加剧了全球贸易紧张局势，也让市场对未来经济不确定性充满担忧。黄金作为 传统避险资产，在这种背景下自然受到投资者追捧。 City Index资深分析师Matt Simpson却提醒道："市场对关税新闻的反应似乎正在减弱，'关税疲劳'已经显 现，交易商可能需要新的催化剂来激发市场波动。"尽管如此，特朗普的关税政策仍在短期内为金价提 供了显著的上涨动能。 【技术分析】 从技术角度来看，黄金价格的看涨潜力仍然有限。日线图显示，金价在斐波那契水平之间形成下行通 道。金价仍低于6月份跌势的38.2%回撤位，该位在3325美元/盎司附近构成阻力位。与此同时，平坦的 20日简单移动平均线(SMA)与6月份跌势的50%斐波那契回撤位在3 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 3500 points, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The real estate sector has shown the highest growth among the primary industries [1] - Recent CPI and PPI data indicate low inflation levels, highlighting insufficient demand as a core issue, while core CPI excluding energy and food is at a relatively high level [1] Economic Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with a total economic volume projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [2] - Domestic consumption has contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, emphasizing the importance of internal demand as a core engine for high-quality growth [2] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent tariff increases announced by former President Trump may have limited direct impact on the U.S. economy but could indirectly affect inflation and growth through supply chain transmission and market sentiment [3] - The tariffs, effective from August 1, will impose rates ranging from 20% to 50% on various countries, potentially leading to price fluctuations in agricultural and energy sectors [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a focus on the ongoing economic expansion and low unemployment [3] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on inflation, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming U.S. CPI data [3] Stock Market Performance - On July 10, the A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3509.68 points, up 0.48% [4] - The real estate, oil and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the gains, while the automotive and media sectors experienced declines [4] Capital Flow - The market turnover was recorded at 15,153.01 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 18,687.97 billion yuan, indicating increased investor activity [5]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! CDSE ~ 华龙证券 从"山重水复"到"柳暗花明" -A股市场2025年中期投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 策略 分析师：朱金金 SAC执业证书编号: S0230521030009 邮箱: zhujj@hlzq.com 2025年7月10日 证券研究报告 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE S 华龙证券 2025年1月1日-2025年6月30日市场走势(单位: %) 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% 上指数 -- 开采300 相关报告 《A股月度金股:7月市场中枢或有上移》 2025. 07. 01 《A股市场2024年报及2025年一季报综述:二季度关注政策催化且业绩保持韧 性方向》 2025. 5. 17 《2025年A股投资策略报告:启航新时期,逐梦高质牛》 2024. 12. 09 资料来源:Wind,华龙证券研究所 请认真阅读文后免责条款 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE 3 华龙证券 目 录 1 对等关税 扰动可控 2 摩擦缓和 政策显效 3 长牛未央 坚守成长 ...

Group 1 - Existing tariffs on copper are set at 50% [1] - Existing tariffs on steel and aluminum are also at 50% [3] - Existing tariffs on automobiles and auto parts are at 25% [3] Group 2 - Proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could reach as high as 200% [3] - Proposed tariffs on semiconductors are set at 25% or higher [3] - Proposed tariffs on films are at 100% [3] Group 3 - Tariffs on various countries in East Asia include 25% on South Korea and Japan [2] - Southeast Asian countries face tariffs ranging from 20% to 40% [2] - Canada faces a 10% tariff on energy products and 25% on other goods not covered by the USMCA [3] Group 4 - Countries in South Asia, West Asia, and Central Asia face tariffs between 25% and 35% [3] - African countries are subject to tariffs of 25% to 30% [3] - European countries face tariffs ranging from 25% to 35% [3] - Brazil faces a 50% tariff [3]

第一部分：大类资产核心观点简述 黄金：地缘方面难以实质性停火，叠加美联储极有可能在下半年重启降息模式，而美元在特朗普政府的"折腾"下开启贬值之路将是大概率事件。总体来看， 黄金牛市还未结束，下半年迎来新一轮大涨的概率大，中期目标上调至4200美元。 原油：地缘整体偏向降温正在挤压原油风险溢价，油价的影响因素回归基本面的可能性较大。欧佩克产油国集团已经逐步开始增产计划。由于超额增产的意 图以及高额的闲置产能，全球供需平衡表正在往供给过剩倾斜，油价易跌难涨，下半年油价维持60-70美元区间调整的可能性较大，极端的情况下，存在挑 战下方55美元的可能。 现货铜：最大的不确定性还是关税政策冲击，在关税阴影下，美铜持续且大幅溢价下正吸引全球其他地区铜源源不断运往美国，美国一年铜消耗大概160万 吨，进口铜约70万吨，对全球其他市场的影响在逐渐显现，LME铜持续去库由贴水转为大幅升水格局，精铜和废铜也出现紧张的现象。综合来看全球铜库 存处于偏紧状态，未来铜价大概率会上破5.30美元。 美股：美国和中国在关税问题上先后进行两轮谈判，6月29日美国总统特朗普宣布，与中国签订"和解协议"，关税政策对美股的冲击基本淡化，另外，下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international spot gold price has been fluctuating, initially declining and then rising, influenced by the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rate outlook due to tariff impacts on inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal that only a "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while most are concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1] - The updated dot plot from the meeting shows that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 anticipate one cut [1] Group 2 - Technically, the market response has been muted, with gold prices hovering around the critical level of $3316 per ounce, indicating unclear market direction [2] - The short-term K-line structure suggests that gold prices have broken below the 21-day short-term moving average, indicating potential entry into a bearish model, but further confirmation is needed [2] - Resistance levels for gold prices are noted at $3385 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially adjusting resistance to $3434 per ounce, while support is at $3266 per ounce, with a breakdown adjusting support to $3198 per ounce [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a new round of tariffs on products from eight countries, specifically increasing the tariff on Philippine products to 20% from the previously announced 17% [1][2] - The increase in tariffs is seen as a move to address the trade deficit with the Philippines, which reached $4.9 billion last year, a 21.8% increase from the previous year [1] - The article highlights the dissatisfaction expressed by experts regarding the sudden change in tariff rates, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. as a negotiating partner [2][3] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcement - Trump announced a new tariff rate of 20% on Philippine products, effective August 1, which is higher than the previously stated 17% [1] - The rationale behind the increase is unclear, but it may be related to a framework agreement reached with Vietnam, which saw its tariff reduced from 46% to 20% [1][2] Trade Deficit Context - The U.S. trade deficit with the Philippines was $4.9 billion last year, with imports from the Philippines significantly exceeding exports [1] - In contrast, the trade deficit with Vietnam was much larger at $123.5 billion [1] Expert Opinions - Gregory Poling from CSIS speculated that the new tariff rate might be a benchmark based on the agreement with Vietnam [1] - Henrietta Levin criticized the U.S. for undermining trust with the Philippines, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to be a reliable partner in Southeast Asia to effectively compete with China [2] Philippine Response - The Philippine ambassador to the U.S. indicated that further negotiations would take place to lower the 20% tariff [2][3] - The Philippines had previously planned to increase imports of U.S. products to negotiate lower tariffs, but the new rate may dampen optimism regarding these efforts [3] Comparison with Other Countries - The tariffs imposed on the Philippines are significantly lower than those on Brazil, which faces a 50% tariff, and other countries facing tariffs as high as 30% [5][6] - Trump's tariff decisions appear to be influenced by personal grievances rather than purely economic considerations, as seen in the case of Brazil [5][6]

这也是今年4月特朗普政府对药品专项关税发起"232条款"调查以来，特朗普就此发表的最新言论。 特朗普表示，关税将激励制药公司将生产业务转移到美国。但白宫此前表示，在美国新建的药品生产 设施可能需要5到10年时间才有望投产。 对进口药品征收关税可能大幅推高美国药品的价格。对此许多制药公司已经表示反对，并警告称，征 税可能会推高成本，阻碍在美国的投资，扰乱药品供应链，使患者面临风险。 2025.07. 10 辉瑞公司CEO艾伯乐（Albert Bourla）此前表示，关税威胁正在阻碍辉瑞进一步在美国进行研发和 制造方面的投资。礼来公司CEO戴文睿（Dave Ricks）也表示，他并不认为关税能解决围绕美国药 品供应链的"国家安全"担忧。 本文字数：1134，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 钱童心 美国总统特朗普在近日的一场内阁会议上表示，很快将宣布对美国进口药品征收"非常高"的关 税。"比如200%。"特朗普称。 具体征税细节预计将于本月底公布。但特朗普同时称，关税不会立即生效，将会给企业留出一年至一 年半的缓冲期。 从资本市场的表现来看，制药公司并未理会特朗普的言论。7月9日美股收盘，礼来、诺华、阿斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The machine tool orders in Japan for the April to June period increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 392 billion yen, driven by overseas demand, particularly from China's EV sector, despite a decline in domestic orders [1][2]. Group 1: Order Trends - The total order amount for April to June was 392 billion yen, with domestic orders decreasing by 4% and overseas orders increasing by 7% [1]. - The overseas orders were significantly influenced by the demand for EV-related equipment from China, with companies like Tsugami reporting a "good" order situation due to this investment [1][2]. - Although the total orders for this period were lower than the active EV investment period in 2022 (463 billion yen), they showed a recovery trend compared to 2023 and 2024 [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - Large enterprises are proceeding with planned investments, while small and medium-sized enterprises remain cautious due to uncertainties in the automotive sector's EV development [2]. - The total order amount for June saw a slight decline to 133.1 billion yen, marking the first monthly decrease in nine months, but the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA) stated that there are no signs of a sustained negative impact on future orders [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - The JMTBA forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in total orders for 2025, reaching 1.6 trillion yen, considering a recovery in automotive and semiconductor-related equipment investments in the second half of the year [2]. - The potential for increased orders exists if uncertainties from tariff policies are resolved, as indicated by Okuma, while Tsugami expressed concerns about a possible slowdown in China's EV investments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].