行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月6日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 118.730 | 118.770 | 119.040 | 118.990 | 0.310 | 0.26 | 29 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The central bank's 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation is expected to stabilize the funding environment, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [11][12] - The report highlights a decrease in bill rates, with 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates at 0.97%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively, indicating a downward trend [11][18] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 10,023.7 billion yuan, representing 11.5% of the total market [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Observations - The central bank has conducted a 9,309 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 6,717 billion yuan [12] - The upcoming month will see 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, which may impact liquidity [12][32] Section 2: Bills - The cumulative net purchase of bills by state-owned banks reached 1,191.69 billion yuan, up from 1,113 billion yuan year-on-year [11][18] Section 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank's operations include a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo starting June 6, 2025, aimed at maintaining liquidity [12][32] Section 4: Fiscal Policy - Government bond net financing for the week was 1,101.28 billion yuan, with expectations of a net repayment of approximately 587.10 billion yuan in the next period [14] Section 5: Certificates of Deposit - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 5,850 billion yuan, with a net financing of -816 billion yuan [14][15] Section 6: Commercial Bank Financing - The total bond issuance by commercial banks was 5,940 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of -726 billion yuan [16] Section 7: Interbank Lending - The cumulative net lending among banks in June 2025 was 4,518 billion yuan, which is lower than seasonal expectations [16] Section 8: Deposit Rates - The report tracks the adjustment of deposit rates across 74 banks, indicating a rapid pace of rate reductions [16]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 135 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 135 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan for the day [2][3] - The funding environment remains ample, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly rising to around 1.4%, while 7-day pledged repo rates decreased by nearly 2 basis points [4] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit traded at approximately 1.68%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight declines across various maturities, with one-year bonds at 1.4100%, two-year bonds at 1.4225%, and ten-year bonds at 1.6540% [8] - The closing prices for government bond futures indicated an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35%, the 10-year by 0.17%, and the 5-year by 0.08% [11] Group 3: Policy Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued a new management method for the development planning of central enterprises, focusing on optimizing industries and concentrating state capital in key sectors related to national security and public services [12] - The Ministry of Finance announced the legislative work plan for 2025, which includes amendments to various financial laws and regulations [12] Group 4: Global Economic Developments - A U.S. judge has temporarily suspended Trump's entry ban for foreign students at Harvard [14] - Japan and the U.S. have initiated a new round of trade negotiations, with Japan seeking to secure tariff exemptions by promising to increase automobile production in the U.S. and enhance cooperation in the rare earth sector [14][15] Group 5: Bond Market Events - The central bank's website has launched a section detailing the operations of various monetary tools [16] - The market for sci-tech bonds has seen over 200 billion yuan issued, indicating sustained market interest [16] - Country Garden has extended the deadline for its offshore debt restructuring support agreement for the third time, aiming to complete the restructuring within the year [16]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile upward trend during the week of June 3-6, 2025, with small-cap stocks outperforming larger indices [3] - Major indices showed the following weekly performance: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13%, SSE 50 up 0.38%, CSI 300 up 0.88%, CSI 500 up 1.60%, CSI 1000 up 2.10%, ChiNext Index up 2.32%, and Northbound 50 Index up 1.30% [3] Valuation Insights - As of June 6, 2025, the ChiNext Index is classified as "safe" in terms of valuation percentile, while other major indices are considered "moderate" [3] - In the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, defense and military, textiles and apparel, computers, and comprehensive finance are rated as "dangerous" in valuation percentile [3] Fund Flow Analysis - Institutional focus this week was on top five stocks: Tianzhun Technology (389 institutions), Zhongkong Technology (312), Huichuan Technology (205), Huace Testing (204), and Huali Group (151) [5] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 14.928 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net inflow of HKD 15.957 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a net outflow of HKD 1.029 billion [5] - Stock ETFs had a median return of 1.32% with a net outflow of CNY 2.559 billion, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 2.40% with a net outflow of HKD 3.716 billion [5] Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by cautious trading signals, with volume timing indicators for major indices remaining in a cautious stance as of June 6, 2025 [4] - The trading theme remains unclear, with rapid rotation of themes observed during the week, indicating a need for stronger capital support for further upward movement [3]

证券研究报告 固收 半年末债市的三个关注点 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 08 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 上周央行通过政策工具释放呵护信号，叠加大行积极增持短端利率债，市场 做多情绪回暖，终结了 5 月底的震荡下跌走势，短端利率下行带动长端利率 走低，曲线陡峭化。展望半年末时点，关税与基本面演绎、资金面及银行等 机构行为值得关注。预计短期中美关税谈判小幅抬升风险偏好，基本面对债 市仍有支撑；资金面冲击幅度有限，仍需提防资金分层与时点冲击；大行持 续买短债或助推曲线走陡，半年末银行兑现 OCI 浮盈券或无需过度担忧。 整体上，债市多空力量相对均衡，或难打破震荡格局，建议适度博弈曲线陡 峭化等。本周关注中美关税谈判、5 月通胀数据、贸易数据、金融数据。 关注点一：从关税谈判进展到基本面高频数据 特朗普就任以来，市场对中美关税预期波动剧烈。去年底与今年四月初，市 场情绪相对悲观，二月则过度乐观，当前市场情绪相对乐观，但整体已较为 钝化。展望未来，尽管特朗普关税政策充满不确定性，但其背后逻辑逐渐清 晰，市场反应将更趋钝化。上周两国领导人通话，关税谈判进入第二阶段， 期待本周关税谈判有积极进展，风险偏好略 ...

央行新增信息披露态度呵护 隔夜利率逼近 1.4% —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250608 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 6717 亿，周五买断式逆回购招标 10000 亿。 尽管本周初企业所得税汇算清缴走款带来了一定扰动，逆回购整体维持净回 笼，但资金面整体仍维持宽松，周五买断式逆回购落地，DR007 降至 1.53%。 ➢ 质押式回购成交量在周四升至 7.86 万亿的年内新高后小幅回落，全周日均 成交上升 1.0 万亿至 7.50 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样在周四创下 1 月 以来的新高后回落，但仍明显高于上周。各类银行净融出上半周均有所抬升， 下半周股份行与城商行净融出回落，大行净融出升破 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market had little overall fluctuation. After large - scale banks started buying short - term bonds and the central bank announced the outright reverse repurchase in June, the bond market sentiment heated up, and the yield curve steepened. The 1Y Treasury yield dropped about 5bp to 1.41%, and the 10Y Treasury yield dropped 2bp to 1.65% [2][11]. - There are three details worthy of attention in this week's institutional behavior and capital situation: large - scale banks' bond purchases are not concentrated on the short - end; there is a structural differentiation in banks' capital lending; short - term certificates of deposit may be more cost - effective [2][12]. - The short - term market may be more driven by sentiment. Three variables need to be concerned about in the future: the sustainability of large - scale banks' bond purchases, the capital market fluctuations in June under the lending stratification, and the benefits to certificates of deposit from increased institutional behavior [4][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Three Details of Large - Scale Banks Buying Short - Term Bonds 3.1.1 Yield Curve - Treasury and China Development Bank (CDB) bond yields generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 5bp, the 3Y yield dropped 4bp, the 5Y yield dropped 2bp, the 7Y yield dropped 3bp, the 10Y yield dropped 2bp, the 15Y yield dropped 2bp, and the 30Y yield dropped 2bp. For CDB bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 3bp, the 3Y yield dropped 3bp, the 5Y yield dropped 3bp, the 7Y yield dropped 2bp, the 10Y yield dropped 1bp, the 15Y yield dropped 1bp, and the 30Y yield dropped 2bp [14][15]. 3.1.2 Term Spread - For Treasury bonds, the spread trend was differentiated, with the short - term spread narrowing and the long - term spread widening. For CDB bonds, the spread inversion eased, and the medium - term spread widened. The long - and medium - term spreads between Treasury and CDB bonds widened [18][19]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Capital Situation 3.2.1 Leverage Ratio - From June 3 to June 6, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and rose. As of June 6, the leverage ratio was about 107.14%, up 0.36pct from last Friday and down 0.02pct from this Tuesday [22]. 3.2.2 Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase - The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase increased compared with last week. From June 3 to June 6, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.5 trillion yuan, up 1.0 trillion yuan from last week. The average overnight turnover accounted for 87.48%, up 3.61pct [29][30]. 3.2.3 Capital Situation - From June 3 to June 6, the capital lending of banks first rose and then fell. The net lending of large - scale and policy banks was 4.25 trillion yuan on June 6. The main capital borrowers were funds, and the lending of money market funds fluctuated and declined. DR007 fluctuated and declined, and R007 continued to decline [34]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.3.1 Median Duration Dropped to 2.76 Years - This week (June 3 - June 6), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.76 years (de - leveraged) and 2.96 years (leveraged). On June 6, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.76 years, down 0.01 years from last Friday [45]. 3.3.2 Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds Dropped to 3.67 Years - The median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds dropped to 3.67 years, down 0.16 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit - bond funds rose to 2.71 years, down 0.02 years from last Friday [48]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies 3.4.1 Sino - US Yield Spread - The overall inversion of the Sino - US Treasury yield spread deepened. The 1Y spread inversion deepened 8bp, the 2Y spread inversion deepened 17bp, the 3Y and 5Y spread inversions deepened 19bp, the 7Y spread inversion deepened 16bp, the 10Y spread inversion deepened 12bp, and the 30Y spread inversion deepened 7bp [54]. 3.4.2 Implied Tax Rate - As of June 6, the 1Y and 3Y spreads between CDB and Treasury bonds widened, the 5Y and 15Y spreads narrowed, and the 7Y spread widened, while the 10Y and 30Y spreads changed less than 1bp [55]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - On June 6, the lending concentration of the active 10Y Treasury and 10Y CDB bonds increased, while that of the less - active 10Y Treasury, less - active 10Y CDB, and active 30Y Treasury bonds decreased. Among institutions, only the lending balance of small - and medium - sized banks decreased, while the others increased [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing marginal changes in policies rather than focusing on repetitive information, particularly in the context of recent developments in the financial market and international relations [1]. Group 1: Financial Market Overview - The liquidity in the financial market is balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.53% [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 135 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 291.1 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan [1]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.45% (down 1 bp), R007 at 1.55% (down 2 bp), and R014 at 1.59% (down 1 bp) [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions to International Events - Following the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents, there was a slight initial decline in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.675% and later fluctuating down to around 1.6675% [4]. - The market sentiment was initially weak but quickly recovered, with the 10-year bond yield stabilizing between 1.65% and 1.70% for nearly a month [4]. - The article notes that the international headlines were overshadowed by a conflict between Trump and Musk, despite the significance of the U.S.-China dialogue [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].