这阵子，楼市又成了街头巷尾的热话题。 总有人见面就问："现在房子到底是涨还是跌？" 说实话，搁在以前，这问题还能掰扯掰扯，可如今的楼市，早就不是非黑即白的事儿了。 就像大A股里的股票，表面上5000多家公司涨涨跌跌，实际上真正能往上走的，也就那几家龙头。 现在的楼市啊，也玩起了"K型分化"，一半是火焰，一半是海水。 啥叫K型分化？ 炒过股的朋友都门儿清。 你看美股那"七姐妹"，苹果、微软这些巨头，市值占了美股总市值的近三成，剩下的几千家公司，要么原地踏步，要么跌跌不休。 楼市如今也是这副光景：少数城市像开了挂，土拍市场溢价率蹭蹭往上窜，房价跟着水涨船高。 多数城市却像被按了暂停键，房价跌了一轮又一轮，愣是看不见底。 最典型的就是北京、上海、深圳、杭州、成都这几个"楼市姐妹花"，自打去年救市以来，土拍和新房市场那叫一个热闹。 杭州土地溢价率39%，上海27%，成都23%，妥妥的"地王收割机"。 新房成交更是亮眼，深圳新房成交量同比涨了83%，上海二手房成交量涨了49%，连杭州这种新房供给减少的城市，二手房也涨了50%。 | 城市 | 季度 | 累计 | 李度 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

一、 指数表现与成交量 今日 ， A 股三大指数集体高开， 但在 早盘冲高后市场出现获利盘抛压，午后指数震荡回 落，沪指微涨 0. 17 % ，深成指和创业板指分别收跌 0. 13 % 和 0. 12 % 。两市成交额 继 续 突破万亿元，达 1. 29 万亿元，较前一交易日 缩量 约 169 亿元。个股表现分化，超 4 000 只个股早盘上涨，但收盘时下跌个股增至 3200 余只，市场情绪从普涨转向结构性波 动。 二、 领涨板块：出口链与科技股主导行情 1 、 光伏设备与新能源：光伏板块全线爆发，多晶硅期货主力合约 4 日累计涨幅超 13% ， 头部企业如东方日升涨停，阳光电源一季度净利润同比大增 82.52% 。行业传闻头部厂商联 合减产挺价，叠加中美关税缓和后出口预期改善，推动板块情绪。 2 、 跨境电商与消费电子：中美关税下调超预期直接利好出口链。跨境电商指数创 2 个月新 高，恒而达、华纺股份等多股涨停；消费电子板块因供应链成本下降预期走强，叠加 VR/AR 技术提升购物转化率等长期逻辑支撑。 尽管中美关税缓和提振了整体风险偏好，但市场并未普涨，反而呈现显著分化，主要原因包 括： 1、 利好提前消化 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 猪价淡季不淡，上市猪企实现扭亏 生猪养殖行业 2024 年报以及 25Q1 一季报总结 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1，猪价整体淡季不淡、饲料价格下降、仔猪占比提升共同推动上市猪企 实现扭亏，而行业商品猪养殖成本方差仍大，优质猪企 25 年仍有望凭借低成 本优势获取可观利润、持续修复资产负债表。重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份， 建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 ❑ 风险提示：畜禽及粮食价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天 气，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本不达预期等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 002714.SZ | 214.4 | 3.27 | 3.86 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 110.7 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 强烈推荐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high volatility of gold prices has led to a decline in consumer demand for gold jewelry, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude regarding purchases [1][2][3] Industry Overview - Gold jewelry consumption in China has been weak, with a reported 5.96% year-on-year decline in gold consumption, and a significant 26.85% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q1 [1][5] - Major gold jewelry companies such as China Gold, Lao Feng Xiang, and Zhou Da Sheng have reported substantial declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating a challenging market environment [1][5][7] Company Performance - China Gold's net profit decreased by 62.96%, while Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng also experienced declines exceeding 20% in net profit [1][5] - In contrast, Cai Bai Co. has seen growth in revenue and net profit, attributed to an increased focus on gold bar sales, which are more resilient in the current market [2][11] Market Dynamics - The gold price has fluctuated significantly, with a peak of 1082 yuan per gram in late April, followed by a drop to 998 yuan per gram by May 5, reflecting the volatility that affects consumer purchasing behavior [3][4] - The trend of "cold jewelry, hot investment" has emerged, with consumers increasingly favoring investment products like gold bars over traditional jewelry [13][14] Retail Strategies - Many traditional brands are closing underperforming stores to optimize their retail networks, with Zhou Da Fu and Lao Feng Xiang among those reducing their store counts significantly [18][14] - Companies are encouraged to enhance in-store experiences and diversify product offerings to meet changing consumer preferences, including the rise of "she economy" and personalized products [18][19]

信用债发行环比增长，城投债和产业债融资分化 ——2025 年 4 月信用债发行情况回顾 作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 姚宇彤 部门总监 于丽峰 部门总监 冯琳 受季节性因素和发行利率下行拉动，4 月信用债融资大幅提升。当 月信用债发行量 1.49 万亿元，环比、同比分别增长 23.1%和 6.4%；净 融资由负转正，环比、同比分别增加 3663 亿元和 549 亿元。4 月城投债 和产业债融资延续分化：城投债发行量环比、同比减少，净融资为负且 融资缺口环比扩大；产业债发行量和净融资环比、同比均增加。 时间 2025 年 5 月 8 日 发行结构方面，分评级看，4 月 AAA 级信用债发行量和净融资环比、 同比均增加，AA+级信用债融资缺口环比、同比扩大，AA 级信用债融资 缺口环比、同比收窄；分企业性质看，4 月各类型企业产业债发行量和 净融资环比均增加，同比仅产业类地方国企债有所减少；分券种看，4 月各券种净融资环比均增加，仅企业债和定向工具净融资为负。 城投债方面，4 月半数省份城投债发行量环比、同比减少；19 个省 份净融资为负，天津、吉林、云南、福 ...

尽管美国股市在特朗普关税声明引发的初期动荡后已现反弹，但债券市场深处却依然"麻烦"不断。 当前，美债市场的核心问题，是长短期收益率走势的显著背离，短期国债收益率在市场对美联储降息的预期下有所下 行，然而，作为经济融资成本关键基准的长期国债收益率却不降反升。 数据显示，自4月2日以来，基准10年期美国国债收益率已攀升至约4.38%，而短期美国国债收益率正在下降。 大多数投资者和分析师认为，如果美国今年陷入衰退且美联储大幅降息，长期收益率理论上应该下降。 但担忧在于，它们可能不会下降太多，导致按揭贷款和其他类型债务的利率在央行希望鼓励借贷时仍保持高位。 这种罕见的收益率分化，不仅直接推高了消费者和企业的借贷成本，更为关键的是，它正对美联储期望通过降息来刺 激经济增长的传统政策路径构成严峻挑战。 收益率分化背后的驱动因素 这一分化的主要原因是对通胀的不确定性。 虽然投资者认为未来几年通胀和利率将会下降，但特朗普反复无常的贸易政策使这些预测的确定性降低。 因此，投资者要求更高的收益率来补偿持有长期国债的风险——这种额外补偿被称为"期限溢价"。Capital Group固定收 益投资组合经理Tim Ng表示，债券市场反 ...

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Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 is undergoing significant transformation, with increasing divergence between core cities and non-core areas [1] - The latest data from the central bank indicates that the average interest rate for newly issued commercial mortgages has dropped to a historical low of 3.11% [3] - Policy adjustments, such as a reduction in down payment ratios to 15%, are contributing to a market rebound, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volumes have surged [3] - The land market is showing signs of volatility, with average premium rates for residential land in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai reaching 43.3% and 29% respectively [3] - Major developers are focusing on core cities, with land acquisition amounts increasing by 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift towards high-demand areas [3] Market Dynamics - There is a notable structural opportunity in the market, with core areas in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen experiencing high transaction volumes, while peripheral areas face significant inventory pressure [4] - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with extensive renovation plans for old neighborhoods and urban villages [4] - New housing standards are being implemented to enhance quality, which will further differentiate property values between well-located homes and those in less desirable areas [5] - The market is characterized by a stark contrast, with first-tier cities seeing continuous price increases while third and fourth-tier cities face declining sales and high inventory levels [5][6] Population and Economic Trends - Population movement and industrial concentration are driving the underlying logic of market divergence, with cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou attracting young talent and new businesses [5] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for first-time homebuyers in core cities, while owners of non-core assets may face increasing challenges in liquidating their properties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO of "沪上阿姨" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has shown a significant initial surge in stock price, but the subsequent decline raises concerns about the competitive landscape and financial performance of new tea beverage companies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - "沪上阿姨" opened at HKD 190.6 per share, a 68.5% increase from the issue price, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 18.4 billion, setting a record for first-day gains in the new tea beverage sector [1]. - On the second day, the stock price fell to HKD 160, closing at HKD 144.5, a decrease of 8.78% [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Competition - The new tea beverage market is highly saturated, with many established players like "奈雪的茶," "古茗," "茶百道," "蜜雪冰城," and "霸王茶姬" already in the space, leading to intense competition [4]. - The presence of over 40,000 stores for "蜜雪冰城" and nearly 10,000 for "沪上阿姨" indicates significant scale but also highlights the competitive pressures within the industry [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - "沪上阿姨" is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits, with projections indicating a 15% drop in profit for 2024, which is significantly lower than competitors like "蜜雪冰城" [4]. - The valuation of "沪上阿姨" is considered high relative to its financial performance, especially when compared to "蜜雪冰城" and "霸王茶姬," which are viewed as having more reasonable valuations based on their earnings growth [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see continued mergers and acquisitions as companies strive for efficiency and scale amidst fierce competition [5]. - The performance of new tea beverage companies post-IPO will heavily depend on their ability to grow profits, with significant disparities in valuations based on financial results [4][5].

刘英（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员） 英美达成贸易协议的同一天，也是美联储连续第三次宣布维持利率在4.25%-4.5%的水平不变的次日，英 国央行宣布降息25个基点，这显示出在美国所谓"对等关税"的冲击下，全球央行的货币政策走势分化加 剧。美联储按兵不动主要源于对高关税冲击所带来的不确定性的担忧，多数国家央行也选择按兵不动， 但日前仍有部分国家选择加息或降息，其中因通胀走升，巴西加息50个基点，日本央行也在继续加息的 路上。中国央行则宣布全面降准降息。 先来看此次英国央行降息25个基点的措施。一方面，这是因为英国通胀情况有所缓解，物价运行处于相 对平稳的水平，英国消费者物价指数（CPI）今年继续呈下行的态势，从今年一月份的3%降到二月份的 2.8%，三月份继续回落到2.6%的水平，核心CPI则从3.7%逐步回落到3.5%和3.4%的水平上。经过连续12 次加息及此前三次降息，英国通胀水平已经从2022年超过11%的高通胀，逐步回落的目前2%的目标区 间范围内，由此，相对稳定的物价水平成为英国央行降息的主要原因。 另一方面，在美国所谓"对等关税"影响下，特别是对全球进口美国的汽车、钢铁和铝等加征25%的高关 ...