Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has declined for three consecutive months, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook, with inflation expectations remaining high at 4.6% [2]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to comments from former President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite ongoing government shutdown concerns [2]. - The report suggests that in the context of "tariff disruptions and a dovish Fed," U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The government shutdown has resulted in the suspension of key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates economic assessments and policy decisions [1]. - The consumer confidence index reflects a significant drop, indicating heightened economic anxiety among consumers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a core allocation in medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries to lock in yields and reduce volatility, with a potential extension to five years for higher-risk investors [3]. - Investment-grade credit bonds are recommended, particularly in technology and consumer staples sectors, while high-yield bonds should have controlled durations [3]. - Chinese dollar bonds are highlighted for their credit improvement and spread advantages, with a focus on "high quality and short duration" strategies [3]. Key Events and Data - Future attention should be directed towards the upcoming U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3].

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose during the week of October 10, with the CFETS RMB index at 97.32, up 0.55, reaching a new high since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index rose to 103.43, up 0.78, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index increased to 91.89, up 0.66, marking a new high since April 2025 [1] USD Performance - The US dollar index continued its strong performance, breaking the 99 mark and reaching a two-month high, closing at 98.82 with a cumulative increase of 1.13% [5] - Non-USD currencies, including the Japanese yen, British pound, euro, and Australian dollar, all depreciated against the USD, with the euro down 1.01% [5] RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1360 against the USD, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1232, with the RMB central parity rate at 7.1048, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day [5] - Analysts expect the RMB central parity rate against the USD to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with the central bank focusing on the performance against a basket of currencies [5] RMB Appreciation Drivers - The current RMB appreciation cycle is primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, which is expected to continue until mid-next year [6] - The recent rebound of the USD is seen as a passive reaction to the weakness of the euro and yen due to political instability, with further USD strength dependent on the recovery of the US labor market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current appreciation cycle of the RMB is characterized by a smaller magnitude compared to previous cycles, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic factors such as the transition of the RMB into a financing currency and trade war hedging needs [1][4][11]. External Drivers - The external factors influencing the RMB exchange rate include the US dollar index and US dollar interest rates, with a focus on domestic dollar liquidity due to China's incomplete capital account convertibility [4][5]. - The current weakening of the dollar index is attributed to the divergence in monetary policies among major economies and increased hedging against dollar depreciation risks by market institutions [4][11]. Internal Drivers - The domestic environment is characterized by a "loose monetary + loose credit" cycle, contrasting with previous appreciation cycles that featured "tight monetary + loose credit" conditions, contributing to the smaller magnitude of the current appreciation [7][11]. - The RMB has shifted from being an investment currency to a financing currency, which, combined with low exchange rate elasticity, leads to a market preference for holding long positions in USD against RMB, thus suppressing the appreciation potential [11][13]. Market Outlook - The RMB is expected to remain in the current appreciation cycle until at least mid-next year, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued easing and the anticipated release of pending settlement orders [13][15]. - The fourth quarter may see a slight rebound in the dollar index, influenced by external factors, but the overall trend for the RMB remains upward, with caution advised for locking in exchange rates before the Spring Festival [18].

02 平衡艺术 威廉姆斯的降息立场并非无条件，而是建立在精细的风险平衡基础上。 他明确指出，"如果通胀再度大幅高于2%，而我们未能将其拉回目标区间，那将对经济以及我们的公信力造成严重损害。" 然而，这位美联储副主席同样担忧就业市场风险。 美联储内部围绕利率政策的激烈博弈正迎来一位关键人物的表态。 美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日公开表示，鉴于劳动力市场进一步降温的风险，他支持今年内继续降息。 这一表态立刻引发市场广泛关注，作为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有永久投票权的副主席，威廉姆斯的观点一直被视作美联储政策的重要风向标。 01 关键支持 在最近接受媒体采访时，威廉姆斯明确表达了他的货币政策立场。 "我的个人观点是，今年政策利率确实会进一步下调，但具体幅度仍需视数据而定。"他这样对记者表示。 威廉姆斯在美联储内部地位举足轻重，他的言论往往被视为重要的政策前瞻指引。 在9月美联储降息25个基点后，市场一直渴望了解央行未来的利率路径。 他强调，美联储需要"以一种尽可能减少劳动力市场急剧降温风险的方式来实现这一目标。" 这种平衡艺术体现了美联储当前面临的双重任务——既要遏制通胀，又要保护就业。 03 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is relatively stable with minor fluctuations, influenced by global economic recovery and US Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][17]. Exchange Rate Situation - As of October 10, the interbank foreign exchange market reports the CNY to USD exchange rate at 1 USD = 7.1102 CNY, indicating slight volatility [1][17]. - The exchange rate is a reference point for various transactions, and even small differences can accumulate to significant costs for travelers or importers [1][6]. Reasons for Fluctuations - The minor fluctuations in the exchange rate are attributed to two main factors: slow global economic recovery and tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][17]. - A stronger US economy increases demand for USD, while higher USD interest rates also boost demand for USD assets, leading to a slight depreciation of CNY [3]. Exchange Considerations - When exchanging USD, individuals should consider various factors beyond just the current exchange rate, such as the exchange channel, fees, and annual limits on currency exchange [4][5]. - The difference in exchange rates can be more pronounced for larger amounts, making it essential to plan accordingly [6]. Impact on Daily Life - The USD to CNY exchange rate has direct implications for everyday life, affecting travel costs and the prices of imported goods [8][10]. - A stronger USD can make international travel and purchases more expensive, while a weaker USD can provide more budget flexibility [9]. Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations - To mitigate the impact of exchange rate volatility, it is advisable to plan ahead, monitor exchange rate trends, and consider splitting large exchanges into smaller transactions [11][12]. - Utilizing official channels for exchange rates and considering financial tools for investment purposes can also be beneficial [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with gold futures prices recently surpassing $4000 per ounce, followed by a significant drop, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and future price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The expectation of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential delays in interest rate cuts, is putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - Strong economic data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for higher interest rates, which negatively impacts gold as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculative Positions - There is a crowded speculative long position in gold, with a significant number of investors betting on rising prices, which could lead to a sharp sell-off if prices fail to maintain upward momentum [6][7]. - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, is further pressuring gold prices as it is priced in dollars [6][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Demand Trends - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, have previously driven gold prices higher, but the market is now adjusting to these risks as they have not escalated into full-scale wars [8][9]. - Central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, have been a significant support for gold prices, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - A shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, such as equities, is leading to reduced demand for gold, which is traditionally viewed as a defensive investment [16][19]. - The rise of technology stocks and the overall bullish sentiment in the stock market are attracting capital away from gold [19]. Group 5: Price Volatility and Technical Indicators - The gold market is currently experiencing high volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential need for price corrections after reaching overbought levels [12][17]. - Key resistance levels have been tested multiple times without success, indicating a potential for further downward adjustments in gold prices [12][17]. Group 6: Short-term Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, gold is likely to enter a period of wide-ranging adjustments, with potential price movements down to the $2200–$2350 per ounce range [21]. - For short-term traders, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, while long-term investors may find opportunities to accumulate positions during price corrections [24].

近期，黄金价格涨势凶猛，白银也乘胜追击，以惊艳表现吸引市场目光。 比黄金还"闪" 白银年内涨超70% 北京时间10月9日，伦敦现货白银突破50美元/盎司大关，一度站上51美元高位，创历史新高，但随后有所回调。10日下午，现货白银再次上攻，价格一度 重回51美元/盎司关口上方。 今年以来，现货白银累计涨超70%。分析人士向上证报记者表示，现货白银供应趋紧以及国际宏观经济的影响，或是此番价格上涨的主要动能。 洪灏在其9月研报中表示，若美元进一步贬值，金价涨势或远超市场预期。各国央行购金与避险需求将形成有力支撑，白银则兼具工业属性与金融属性， 有望再现布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的辉煌涨势。 金银比下行 短期内白银或继续优于黄金 随着避险情绪的升温，今年以来，现货黄金涨超50%，现货白银则表现更优，累计涨幅超70%。仅9月，现货白银就大涨超17%。 五矿期货贵金属研究员钟俊轩接受记者采访时表示，本轮白银价格上涨的核心因素在于国际宏观经济和白银现货趋紧的双轮驱动。宏观层面，美元信用受 挫与美联储降息周期构成主要推动力。 "相较于黄金，白银更受益于美联储宽松的货币政策，因而近期出现偏强的上涨格局。"钟俊轩表示，美联储于9月议息 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to last over 15 days due to a political stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties regarding temporary funding bills [1] - President Trump plans to cut federal programs favored by Democrats, indicating a potential for permanent layoffs if the deadlock continues [1][3] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times since the 1970s, often due to partisan disagreements [1][3] Political Dynamics - The ongoing impasse reflects increasing political polarization in the U.S., driven by value conflicts, power struggles, and institutional flaws [2] - The core issue revolves around the Democratic demand to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans seek to cut border security spending [2][3] - Achieving the necessary 60 votes for any temporary funding bill in the Senate is challenging given the current partisan divide [2] Economic Implications - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to job losses for federal workers and disruptions in public services, negatively impacting consumer spending and short-term economic growth [6] - The Labor Department's suspension of key economic data releases could create an "information vacuum," complicating monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have a limited impact on GDP, primarily affecting public sector income and policy uncertainty [7][8] Market Reactions - The stock market's response to shutdowns has been mixed, with the S&P 500 historically showing resilience during such periods [8][9] - Government shutdowns typically lead to a mild decline in Treasury yields, with a notable drop in short-term rates [8] - The dollar may experience short-term strength due to safe-haven demand, but long-term pressures from fiscal challenges and Fed easing expectations could suppress its value [9] Asset Performance - Gold prices have shown volatility during shutdowns, with historical patterns indicating potential support for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [8][9] - Different asset classes are reacting variably, with tech stocks likely to benefit from rate cut expectations, while cyclical and utility stocks may face declines [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to remain in a high - level and strong - side oscillation in the short term due to market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions, despite recent price corrections caused by factors such as the cease - fire in Gaza and the rise of the US dollar [1][2] - The copper market shows tight supply at the mine end and weakening terminal consumption. Copper prices may need to consolidate after reaching the pressure level, and a low - buying approach is recommended [5][7] - Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation until large - scale production cuts occur [14] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong along with aluminum prices, supported by cost factors [18][19] - Aluminum prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the influence of interest - rate cut expectations and the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [26] - Zinc prices may be supported by overseas inventory reduction but could face downward pressure if there is large - scale LME warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but selling on rallies is advisable [29][30] - Lead prices may rise in the short term due to inventory reduction but could fall back later as supply is expected to increase while consumption shows no significant improvement [35][36] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range determined by supply surplus and cost support, following the rhythm of macro - sentiment [38][40] - Stainless steel prices are likely to oscillate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [43][45] - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate within a certain range. There may be a slight surplus in November, which could limit price increases [48][50] - Polysilicon prices may face downward pressure from supply - demand imbalances in October but could see price increases due to potential capacity integration. Low - buying after sufficient corrections is recommended [52] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern as both upward and downward driving forces are limited [56][58] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the progress of mine resumption in Myanmar should be monitored [60][64] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 1.6% at $3976.28 per ounce, London silver closed up 0.66% at $49.205 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also showed corresponding price changes [1] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 99.538, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.144%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.14% to 7.1309 [1] Important资讯 - The US government is expected to release the CPI report during the shutdown. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement has taken effect, and the Congo (Kinshasa) central bank plans to build gold reserves [1] Logic Analysis - The cease - fire in Gaza led to profit - taking in gold, and the rise of the US dollar pressured precious metals. However, market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions in silver support precious metals to oscillate strongly at high levels [2] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a low - buying approach is recommended. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Buy deep - out - of - the - money call options on silver [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 86,650 yuan per ton, up 0.86%. LME copper closed at $10,776.5 per ton, up 0.71%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [5] Important资讯 - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Zambia plans to increase copper production, and some mines have production adjustments [5][6] Logic Analysis - Mine supply is tight, and terminal consumption is weak. The market expects copper prices to need consolidation after reaching the pressure level [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - short arbitrage across markets and consider long - short arbitrage across periods after domestic inventory decline. Stay on the sidelines for options [7][8] Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [10][12] Important资讯 - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the winning price decreased. Alumina inventory increased, and there is a monthly supply surplus. Production costs and profits have changed [12][13] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply is increasing, resulting in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels until large - scale production cuts [14] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [15] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,550 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [18] Important资讯 - The SHFE aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [18] Logic Analysis - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost factors support the price of cast aluminum alloy [19] Trading Strategy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose 95 yuan to 21,100 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [22][25] Important资讯 - The US government is in a shutdown, and Fed officials have differences in interest - rate cut views. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased [25][26] Logic Analysis - Aluminum prices are rising due to interest - rate cut expectations and sector strength. Short - term inventory accumulation has limited impact on prices [26] Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach for aluminum prices. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [27][28] Zinc Market Review - LME zinc rose 0.63% to $3,014 per ton, Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.61% to 22,335 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was mainly among traders [29] Important资讯 - Domestic zinc inventory increased, and a mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [29] Logic Analysis - Overseas inventory reduction supports zinc prices, but potential LME warehousing could lead to price drops [30] Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, but sell on rallies. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [31] Lead Market Review - LME lead rose 0.75% to $2,020.5 per ton, Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.44% to 17,115 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was light [34] Important资讯 - Lead inventory decreased, and a lead - zinc mine's production resumption was postponed [35] Logic Analysis - The lead market has tight raw - material supply, potential production changes at smelters, and weak consumption [35][36] Trading Strategy - Lead prices may rise and then fall. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the money call options [36][37] Nickel Market Review - LME nickel rose to $15,485 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose to 123,620 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed some changes [38] Important资讯 - A nickel mine in Indonesia plans to start production, and Indonesia has introduced a new mining - license policy. There are export controls on lithium - battery - related products [38] Logic Analysis - Nickel prices are affected by factors such as inventory increase, export controls, and market sentiment, and are expected to oscillate within a range [38][40] Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [41] Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless - steel main contract rose to 12,845 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in a certain range [43] Important资讯 - India relaxed import - certification requirements, a typhoon affected some processing enterprises, and Indonesia won an anti - dumping lawsuit [43] Logic Analysis - Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [45] Trading Strategy - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [46] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fell 0.29% to 8,640 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Some silicon plants had production adjustments [48] Logic Analysis - There may be a slight surplus in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [48][50] Trading Strategy - Trade within the range for single - side trading. Stay on the sidelines for options and arbitrage [50] Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures closed flat at 50,765 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [52] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Polysilicon production and demand changed [52] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand imbalances in October may lead to price pressure, but capacity integration may push up prices. Buying at low levels after corrections is advisable [52] Trading Strategy - Buy after sufficient corrections for single - side trading. Hold reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [54] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate 2511 contract rose to 73,340 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [56] Important资讯 - A company obtained mining rights, there were export controls, and some lithium - related projects had developments [56] Logic Analysis - Production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate [58] Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [58] Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2511 contract rose 0.82% to 287,400 yuan per ton. Spot prices increased, but market activity was low [60] Important资讯 - Fed - related news, and Indonesia adjusted its tin - trading system and carried out industry governance [60][62] Logic Analysis - The supply of tin mines is tight, and demand is weak. Pay attention to mine resumption and consumption recovery [63] Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Monitor the resumption of mines in Myanmar [64]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy debate has shifted from simple data interpretation to strategies for addressing "uncertainty" [1] - Michael Barr emphasizes the risk of persistent inflation above target levels, despite acknowledging signs of a slowing labor market [3] - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve reflect a lack of a singular consensus on policy direction, with varying perspectives on interest rate adjustments [4] Group 1 - Michael Barr supports the recent interest rate cut while expressing concerns about inflation risks [1][3] - The unemployment rate at 4.3% is viewed as indicative of a healthy labor market, prompting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [3] - Barr's perspective aligns with that of other hawkish officials, suggesting a balanced approach to prevent economic downturns while remaining vigilant against premature declarations of victory over inflation [3] Group 2 - The contrasting views of more dovish officials like Mary Daly and John Williams highlight concerns over deeper labor market weaknesses and the potential economic damage from maintaining high interest rates [3][4] - Stephen Milan's more aggressive rate cut proposal adds to the diverse opinions within the Federal Reserve, indicating a complex decision-making environment [4] - The unpredictability of external factors, such as government shutdowns affecting key economic reports, complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [4]