Core Perspective - Viewing the United States as a large corporation named "American Group" provides clarity on its complex structure and operations, contrasting it with a unified state like China [1][3]. Group Structure - The headquarters of the company is located in Washington, D.C., where the White House and Congress serve as the main offices and board of directors [4]. - The President acts as the rotating CEO, with leadership changing frequently [4]. Power Dynamics - The board consists of two factions competing for resources and influence, but the fundamental goal remains profit generation and maintaining the company's dominant position [5]. - The Federal Reserve functions as the chief financial officer, managing monetary policy to stabilize the economy and maintain global trust in U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. Key Business Units - The military-industrial complex is a significant department, responsible for lobbying Congress for large defense budgets and showcasing products globally to create market demand [6][8]. - The immigration system operates as the human resources department, focusing on attracting top talent and providing a labor force for low-wage jobs [9][11]. Economic Strategies - The "petrodollar" system ties global oil transactions to the U.S. dollar, ensuring demand for the currency and solidifying its stability [14]. - The company utilizes its financial instruments, such as Treasury bonds, to fund various initiatives, including military actions and infrastructure projects [5][21]. Operational Coordination - When the board decides to demonstrate power or engage in military action, the process involves media preparation, budget allocation for military production, and financial market stabilization by the Federal Reserve [20]. - The execution of these plans often relies on immigrant labor and local low-wage workers, who bear the costs of these operations [21]. Systemic Functionality - The American Group attracts global talent with the promise of the "American Dream," while maintaining a system that prioritizes its survival and strength over individual employee welfare [22][23]. - The majority of ordinary individuals within this system function as expendable resources, replaced as needed to sustain operations [22][23].

债券 2026 年 1 月 29 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：就业市场显示企稳迹象 证券分析师 平安观点： 债 券 报 告 平安证券研究所投资评级： 债 券 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 王佳萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525070002 WANGJIAMENG709@pingan.com.cn 26 年 1 月会议上，美联储决定保持政策利率在 3.5-3.75%不变，理事米兰和 沃勒投出反对票，认为应该降息 25BP。 美 联 储 会 议 声 明 变 动 主 要 有 两 处 。1） 对 经 济 增 速 的 描 述 从 温 和 "moderate"修改为稳健"solid"， 称 经 济活动增长稳健"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace"。2）就业方面，美联储称失业率出现了一些企稳的信号"the unemployment rate has shown some si ...

地缘升温叠加偏鸽预期 贵金属延续强势表现 市场分析 利率方面，美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联 储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初 步企稳迹象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，加 息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下一届美联储主席远离政治。地缘 方面，美国总统特朗普再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正前 往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任 何针侵略作出迅速而果断的回应。 期货行情与成交量： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 2026-01-28，沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1186.20元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.29%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1196.80元/克，较昨日午后收 ...

新华财经纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国宏观经济和就业指标整体改善，美国联邦储备委员会 在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利率不变，再次进入观望模式。 同时，围绕联邦政府政府对美联储的刑事调查、美国最高法院对联邦政府解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克案 的审理、新任美联储主席的提名、美联储内部运行等出现的挑战仍在继续发酵，美联储独立性成为绕不 开的话题。 宏观形势解读偏向乐观 联邦公开市场委员会当日发布的公告和美联储主席鲍威尔均描绘了较为乐观的宏观形势，从通胀和就业 形势两方面看，暂时没有继续降息的迫切性。当日的决定也与鲍威尔在12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停 降息的信号一致。 鲍威尔在28日午后举行的记者会上表示，美国经济去年以坚实的步伐扩张，并在进入2026年时表现坚 实。虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经表现出一些企稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度 上处于高位。 美国2025年第三季度美国国内生产总值环比按年率计算增长4.4%，四季度预计也会有不错的增速，去 年12月失业率则回落至4.4%。尽管消费者信心指数等仍然较为糟糕，决策者在通胀压力尚未缓解的情 况下倾向于继续观察。 鲍威尔对通胀形势给出相对 ...

美联储将进入政策观察期，6 月前降息可能性偏低 ——美联储 1 月货币政策会议点评与展望 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：北京时间周四（1 月 29 日）凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。本次利率决议有两票反对，比上次少 一票，沃勒投反对票，和特朗普"钦点"理事米兰的主张一致。本次美联储声明删除了就业风险增加 的说辞，指出经济形势有改善、尤其在失业率上升方面已有企稳迹象，暗示联储决策者更谨慎，并不 急于继续行动。鲍威尔表示，当前政策并非"明显偏紧"，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风 险可能正趋于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至经济， 预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。此外，他并未对备受关注的政治议题作出实质性回应，但表示 美联储理事库克遭遇的官司可能是美联储历史上最重大的案件。他还建议，下一届美联储主席应远离 民选政治。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 本次会议声明与鲍威尔讲话均显示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经济、就业数据 走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting signals a shift in market expectations for gold, influenced by changes in the Federal Reserve's policy stance and economic outlook [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 [5][7] - The statement from the meeting removed references to "rising employment risks" and emphasized improvements in certain areas of the economy, indicating that the Fed does not feel compelled to continue easing immediately [5][7] - Internal divisions among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts suggest uncertainty in monetary policy direction, with some officials still favoring further cuts [7] Group 2: Impact on Gold Market - Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations; a weakened logic for urgent rate cuts could lead to significant price volatility in the gold market [5][7] - The potential for a prolonged observation period by the Fed may increase the likelihood of a dollar rebound, which could lead to a divergence where macroeconomic logic remains unchanged but prices adjust prematurely [7][9] - Investors are cautioned against blindly entering the gold market based solely on long-term bullish sentiment, as short- to medium-term drivers may create a vacuum [7][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The Fed's decision to pause is seen as a signal for patience and observation, suggesting that restraint may be more valuable than impulsive actions during this period [9] - While gold retains its long-term value as a hedge against uncertainty, the market needs time to digest previously priced-in easing expectations [9] - Understanding the shift in logic is deemed more critical than chasing emotional price points, as the future trajectory of gold may involve complex fluctuations rather than a straightforward upward trend [9]

美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩 张"，但经济前景的不确定性仍在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水 平。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题 的提问。不过，他表示，如果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均强烈致力于维护美联储独 立性。 鲍威尔还对下一任美联储主席提出建议："不要卷入选举政治。不要这么做。" 美国司法部9日向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻 新项目作证一事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直 言遭调查是因为美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。 新华社纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣 布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避 有关自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 鲍威尔在当日下午举行的发布会上表示，美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新的数据。 公告显示，联 ...

公告显示，联邦公开市场委员会12名成员中，支持当日货币政策会议决定的有10人，投反对票的是美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒，二人主张降息25个基点。 鲍威尔说，当前联邦基金利率大体上为"中性"。去年12月美国核心通胀率很可能达到3%，预计关税影 响将在今年年中达到峰值。若物价如此前预期在今年触顶并开始回落，意味着美联储有可能放松货币政 策。若劳动力市场未能企稳，美联储也会降息。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题的提 问。不过，他表示，如果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均强烈致力于维护美联储独立 性。 新华社纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避有关 自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩张"，但 经济前景的不确定性仍在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。 鲍威尔在当日下 ...

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

---趋势判断---- 基本面： 周四 （01月29日）白银早盘连续高位震荡反弹，突破考虑追涨布局方案，最新报117.38美元/盎司，避险情绪高涨：政治风云变幻：白银与铂金的同步狂 欢：黄金暴涨现货白银也紧随其后，周三收涨4.22%至116.69美元，周四早盘截止08:00，最高触及119.24美元，再度刷新历史高点，涨幅约2.2%。白银今年 以来涨幅逾60%，远超黄金，但渣打银行分析师在报告中警告，多项白银指标显示银价短期内可能面临回调。这表明贵金属市场整体处于高热状态，但银价 的波动性可能更大，投资者需警惕潜在调整。地缘政治风暴：美伊冲突升级成金价最大推手地缘政治紧张无疑是本轮金价暴涨的核心驱动力，特别是美国与 伊朗之间的剑拔弩张，让市场充斥着战争阴霾。担忧美国打击伊朗的传闻不断发酵，推动避险买盘持续涌入。 土耳其外交部长费丹与伊朗外长阿拉格齐在24小时内两次通电话，重点讨论了缓解当前地区紧张局势的相关努力。在公开表态中，费丹明确表示再次发动战 争是错误的，他指出针对伊朗采取军事行动不仅无法解决问题，反而会使地区陷入更深层次的不稳定。费丹披露，伊朗方面已准备好就核问题重新启动谈 判，并向美方提出建议，采取 ...