Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the inter - bank bond market is warm, with spot bond yields declining by about 1bp. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the 30 - year main contract increased by 0.19%. The tax payment period has basically ended, and the inter - bank money market has become more relaxed, with the overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions dropping by more than 9bp to a low of 1.31%. The fourth - quarter bond market faces a generally favorable fundamental and policy environment but remains in a volatile pattern [3]. - The central bank has continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals for the 8th consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - The inter - bank bond market sentiment is warm, spot bond yields decline, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rise. The tax payment period ends, and the money market eases. The market is highly concerned about the China - US summit [3]. 3.2 Fund Flow - On October 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 2125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 1301 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0721, indicating that the spot bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0427, also bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.1084, indicating that the spot bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.0476, also bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory - The balance of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2359.9 billion yuan respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Trends - The TS main contract is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The TF main contract is also above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The T main contract is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Positions - The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The T main contract has a net long position, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.630 | 0.05% | 68,993 | 245,110 | - 1,169 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.065 | 0.00% | 54,366 | 149,269 | 160 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.554 | - 0.01% | 33,991 | 73,541 | 2,319 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.15 | 0.19% | 128,226 | 144,078 | - 1,963 | 220008.IB | [8]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 30, with a net injection of 130.1 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 212.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The end of the tax period has led to continued net injections by the central bank, resulting in a further easing of the interbank funding market. The overnight repo rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 9 basis points to around 1.31%, with ample supply in the market [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.31% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have seen yields decline, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.19% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.05% [13]. Group 5: International Relations and Economic Cooperation - Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed economic and trade issues, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and the need to avoid a cycle of retaliation. Both sides aim to finalize agreements to enhance economic ties [14]. - The U.S. will cancel certain tariffs on Chinese goods, while China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations [15]. Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a notice to improve duty-free shop policies to boost consumption, effective from November 1, 2025 [15]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced the expansion of pilot programs for pension financial products nationwide, with increased fundraising limits for financial institutions [16].

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate; with 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, the net injection into the market was 130.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor falling by 9.70 basis points to 1.3170%, and the 7-day Shibor decreasing by 2.80 basis points to 1.4840% [1][2] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, all varieties continued to decline, with R007 and R014 still inverted; the transaction share of R007 rose to 16.8%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 9.3 basis points and 6.8 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes decreased by 240.8 billion yuan and 198.8 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 decreased by 4.3 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 31.8 billion yuan and 275.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - On October 30, the funding environment appeared relatively loose, with major banks lending out funds, maintaining a generous supply. Overnight transactions were around 1.48%, with 7-day transactions in the range of 1.55% [9] - By the afternoon, the funding rates remained stable, with overnight transactions around 1.35% and 7-day transactions between 1.50% and 1.54% [9] Bank Performance Reports - China Construction Bank reported Q3 revenue of 179.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%, and a net profit of 95.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.19%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 573.70 billion yuan, up 0.82%, and net profit was 257.36 billion yuan, up 0.62% [12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced Q3 revenue of 201.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, and a net profit of 101.80 billion yuan, up 3.29%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 610.97 billion yuan, up 1.98%, and net profit was 269.91 billion yuan, up 0.33% [12] - Agricultural Bank of China reported Q3 revenue of 180.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit of 81.35 billion yuan, up 3.66%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 550.77 billion yuan, up 1.87%, and net profit was 220.86 billion yuan, up 3.03% [13] - Postal Savings Bank reported Q3 revenue of 85.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and a net profit of 27.38 billion yuan, up 1.04%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 265.08 billion yuan, up 1.82%, and net profit was 76.79 billion yuan, up 1.07% [13] - Bank of Communications reported Q3 operating income of 66.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.23%, and a net profit of 23.98 billion yuan, up 2.46%. For the first three quarters, operating income was 200.06 billion yuan, up 1.86%, and net profit was 69.99 billion yuan, up 1.9% [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed higher yesterday. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, with a - 0.40% change (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a +0.40% month - on - month change (+0.81%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.13, with a +0.42 month - on - month change (+0.43%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0972, with a +0.000 month - on - month change (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with a - 0.02 month - on - month change (-1.18%); DR007 was 1.55, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.82%); R007 was 1.53, with a +0.02 month - on - month change (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.32%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a +0.00 month - on - month change (-0.32%) [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [15][16][18] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the money market funding situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [28][31] IV. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the spread situation, including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][40][44] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of two - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, etc. [42][46][54] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of five - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [56][60][61] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of ten - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [63][65][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of thirty - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [70][72][76] Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 29, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 557.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank's increased reverse repo operations have led to a loosening of the interbank market funding conditions, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate for deposit institutions dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also decreased to 1.38%, with supply around 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds are around 1.45%, lower than the previous day's levels [3] - Market expectations remain positive, with the central bank's actions aimed at stabilizing the funding conditions at the end of the month [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, down over 2 basis points from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a decline of 0.27% for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [12] Key Economic Indicators - From January to September, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 613.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 1.6% to 316.70 billion yuan [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the rising global trade uncertainty increases the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+0.81%) [10]. - The dollar index is 98.71, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.0974, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.015 (-0.21%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.78%); DR007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.50%); R007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.77%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.77%) [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the indication of relevant figures (such as the closing price trends, price change rates, etc. of treasury bond futures) is provided. The figures include the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios (top 20), long - short positions ratios (top 20), the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [14][16][18][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals The figures include Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [26][27]. IV. Spread Overview The figures include the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TS main contract [41][42][51]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate rises, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 28, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 475.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a generally balanced and stable funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions slightly rising to around 1.47% due to the tax period [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained stable at 1.46%, while non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds were around 1.5% [3] - The central bank's stance on month-end liquidity is evident, with no significant fluctuations in the funding conditions despite tax period disturbances [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.24% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was approximately 1.66%, down over 1 basis point from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase: 30-year main contract rose by 0.55%, 10-year by 0.25%, 5-year by 0.15%, and 2-year by 0.08% [11] Economic and Trade Developments - The Chinese government released the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing high-quality development and the enhancement of domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12] - China and ASEAN signed an upgraded version of the free trade agreement in Kuala Lumpur, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [12] - The deputy director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau indicated that insurance capital's average liability duration aligns well with the average R&D cycle of technology companies, with direct investments in tech firms reaching several hundred billion yuan [12] Global Macro Developments - The U.S. and Japan signed a mutual agreement to ensure the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, aiming to diversify and strengthen the market [14] - The U.S. Treasury emphasized the importance of sound monetary policy and communication in stabilizing inflation expectations and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations [14] Bond Market Events - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion in five-year government bonds with a winning yield of 3.730% [16] - Inner Mongolia plans to issue 7.8232 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds and 51.1399 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds on November 4 [16] - The issuance scale of technology innovation bonds in Tianjin's interbank market has surpassed 20 billion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the impact of central bank policies, particularly the resumption of bond purchases and the decline in MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rates, which have contributed to a bullish sentiment in the stock market and a significant drop in long-term bond yields [1][3]. Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net injection of 348.3 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [1]. - The overnight and seven-day repo rates have shown upward trends, with DR001 around 1.45% and DR007 at approximately 1.58% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.85% but later fell to around 1.795% following the announcement of resumed bond purchases by the central bank [3]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong performance, with the index reaching a peak of 3999 points, driven by positive sentiment from the weekend's trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [3]. - The article notes that the stock market's rise was anticipated, as traders had already priced in expectations of reaching 4000 points [3]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market initially showed cautious sentiment but reacted positively to the central bank's announcement, leading to a significant drop in yields [3]. - The MLF interest rate was reported to have decreased to approximately 1.8375%, further supporting the bullish trend in the bond market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through short - term reverse repurchase. On October 27, it conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan in October. The overall liquidity situation was loose [2][6]. - The liquidity remained loose, but there was some volatility pressure at the end of the month. The central bank showed a clear attitude of caring for liquidity, with a continuous net injection of medium - and long - term liquidity. However, at the end of October, due to the overlap of tax payments and cross - month disturbances, the cross - month liquidity was expected to be generally stable but with some volatility compared to the mid - month level [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 74 billion yuan compared to the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan [8]. - Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, while the 1 - year yield increased. The net financing amount of NCDs increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. Based on the calculation results, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, while the duration of short - term pure bond funds increased [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 7.81 billion yuan. On October 23, it conducted a 12 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit operation. In October, the MLF matured at 700 billion yuan, and on October 27, the central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan. The two medium - and long - term liquidity tools, namely, the repurchase and MLF, had a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in October [6]. - **Liquidity Situation**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, up 0.2 and 1.3 basis points compared to the period from October 13 to October 17. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.4 and down 0.4 basis points compared to the previous period. The overall liquidity was still relatively loose, but there was a slight increase in the weighted average rate of DR001 on October 24 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, with the net financing amount of national bonds about 77.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 136.7 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 53.94 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 187.66 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of October 24, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4950% and 1.5900% respectively, down 1.0 and 0.4 basis points compared to October 17. The 1 - year maturity yield was 1.6750%, up 0.9 basis points compared to October 17 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan, higher than the 222.7 billion yuan in the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, slightly lower than the 107.69% in the period from October 13 to October 17 [10]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 24, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.79 years, down 0.53 years week - on - week, at the 79.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.53 years, up 0.26 years week - on - week, at the 83.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year Treasury spread has fully reflected the repair of risk preference, and the 10 - year minus 1 - year Treasury spread has also generally reflected it. The bond market currently has allocation value, but chasing the rise requires caution [3][10]. - The capital market is in a loose state, with stable and low capital prices and little seasonal fluctuation. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - The issuance pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. NCDs have high allocation value at the end of the year and may decline more than expected [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Pricing of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit? - **Bond Market Outlook**: Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The spreads have reflected risk - preference repair, and the bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, and there may be opportunities for monetary easing, but redemption pressure will persist. Chasing the rise of bonds requires caution [3][10]. - **Capital Market Situation**: The capital market is in a loose state, with capital prices at a stable low and little seasonal fluctuation. This is due to the central bank's careful liquidity arrangements and the relatively loose and smooth - flowing bank liabilities. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - **Analysis of NCDs' Net Financing Decline**: Some investors are worried about the continuous negative net financing of NCDs since the third quarter. This decline is consistent with the state of the bank's broad liability gap and is also due to the substitution effect of the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection [13]. - **NCDs' Supply Pressure in the Fourth Quarter**: The issuance pressure of NCDs in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. Although there is still some supply pressure at the end of the year, the probability of negative feedback is not high. The NCDs' interest rate is in a high - allocation - value range and may decline more than expected at the end of the year [4][17].