Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month[3] - The decline in July's PMI is attributed to both temporary and structural factors, including extreme weather and natural disasters[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and natural disasters, have negatively impacted PMI readings, contributing to a seasonal decline in manufacturing[4] - The "anti-involution" trend may cause a temporary slowdown in production, but it is expected to improve price expectations significantly[5] - The new export orders index fell to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in export demand, reflecting the effects of previous strong export activities[6] Group 3: Price Indicators - The PMI raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while the PMI factory price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[5] - The marginal improvement in price expectations does not indicate a substantial recovery in prices, as the transition from negative to positive PPI growth is still pending[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and service PMI recorded values of 50.6% and 50.0%, with respective declines of 2.2 and 0.1 percentage points[6] - The construction sector is expected to face less downward pressure due to ongoing policy support for infrastructure projects[8]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3% in July, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remained above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1][3][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [3][4]. - The production index and new orders index were at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities but a slowdown in market demand [4]. - The manufacturing business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [4]. - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, while the consumer goods sector saw a decline to 49.5% [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical threshold [6]. - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50%, with significant growth in transportation and entertainment sectors due to summer holiday effects [7]. - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding drop in the business activity expectation index to 51.6% [8]. Market Outlook - The overall market expectations in the service sector improved, with a business activity expectation index of 56.6%, indicating optimism among service providers [7]. - Experts suggest that increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure could help boost order volumes and stabilize economic growth in the latter half of the year [4][8].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, slightly down but still above the critical point; medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points but below the critical point; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points and below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates expansion; the new orders index is at 40.4%, down by 0.8 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points but still above the critical point; the construction index is at 50.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the service index is at 50.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The CD index is at 45.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand [2] - The comprehensive PMI output is at 50.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to address internal and external shocks [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand, with final consumption contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [4] - The meeting also pointed out the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [5] Group 4: Capital Market - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies to attract investments [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown positive momentum, surpassing key levels of 3500 and 3600 points since April [6] - There is an expectation for a long-term bullish trend in the capital market, driven by increased investment from institutional investors and the inclusion of innovative companies in the market [6]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数 分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查 中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源：国家统计局 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张 数据显示，7月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。 图片来源：国家统计局 赵庆河表示，服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份，服务业商务活动指数为50%，比上月略降0.1个百分点。从行业看，在暑期假日效应带动下，与居民 出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业务总量较快增长。从市场预期看，7 月份，业务活动预期指数为56.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明多数服务业企业对市场预期较为乐观。 建筑业商务活动 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, although it decreased by 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service industry business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with sectors related to travel and consumption showing strong performance, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [7]

统计局解读：7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，制造业PMI回落。主要原材料购进价格指数自今年3月份以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数均低于临界点，景气度偏弱。 ...

国家统计局数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分 别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月 下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

国家统计局数据显示，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，其生产指数和新订单指数分别 为52.1%和50.7%，均连续三个月位于扩张区间，大型企业保持较好生产经营态势；中型企业PMI为 49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平继续改善；小型企业PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分 点。 ...