Manufacturing Sector - August manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 49.1%[2] - Production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points[5] - Large enterprises' PMI improved significantly to 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI rose to 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium enterprises' PMI fell to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points[5] Export and Import Trends - New export orders index rose to 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stabilization in export momentum[20] - Import index increased to 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing production expansion[20] Price Indices - Raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points; factory price index increased to 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a potential upward trend in PPI[25] - Raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, while finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.8%, down 0.6 percentage points[25] Service Sector - Service sector business activity index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than last year's 50.2%[29] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector increased to 57.0%, indicating positive market sentiment[29] Construction Sector - Construction sector business activity index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[32] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[32]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the PMI manufacturing index in August, along with improvements in production, new orders, and prices, indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition. The stock market's recovery is boosting economic confidence, which may lead to a rebound in consumer spending. Future policies to expand domestic demand are expected to strengthen the positive economic trend, especially in the service consumption sector as the impact of durable goods policies diminishes [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - The production index in August rose to 50.8%, while the new orders index was at 49.5%, indicating a strong resilience in the economy despite a widening supply-demand gap of 1.3 percentage points [2]. - The increase in production is attributed to stable domestic demand and a recovering stock market, alongside exporters rushing to ship goods due to new tax regulations [2]. Group 2: Price Index Trends - The PMI output price index and raw material purchase price index increased by 0.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points to 49.1% and 53.3%, respectively, marking three consecutive months of price increases [3]. - The rise in prices is linked to the initial success of measures to curb excessive competition, with 11 out of 16 industries showing price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Procurement Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 46.8%, while raw material inventory and procurement levels rose, indicating a shift towards passive inventory reduction [4]. - Companies are adjusting procurement levels in response to new orders, maintaining low inventory levels as demand and exports increase [4]. Group 4: Performance of Enterprises - Large enterprises saw a significant increase in their index to 50.8%, while small enterprises slightly rose to 46.6%, and medium enterprises fell to 48.9% [5]. - The service sector, particularly transportation and entertainment, benefited from summer consumption, with business activity indices for rail and air transport exceeding 55% [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PMI manufacturing index remains in contraction for five consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures, particularly for small and medium enterprises [7]. - Continued policy support is necessary to sustain economic recovery, especially in demand, with upcoming measures to stimulate service consumption and digital economy initiatives [7].

Group 1: PMI Overview - In August 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the neutral line, reflecting ongoing structural challenges such as weak inventory replenishment and employment pressures[4] - The Services PMI rose significantly to 50.5%, marking the best performance of the year, driven by active capital markets and a rebound in the financial sector[8] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - The increase in the manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by production, with the Production Index rising 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, while the New Orders Index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%[5] - Extreme weather conditions had a negative impact on industrial operations, but their effects diminished in August, contributing to the marginal rise in the manufacturing PMI[5] - The Raw Material Purchase Price Index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, outperforming the Factory Price Index, which rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, indicating a stronger recovery in upstream prices compared to downstream[5] Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The Employment Index fell to 47.9%, reflecting a seasonal slowdown and indicating that the job market has not shown significant improvement[6] - Companies are exhibiting cautious behavior by reducing inventories, as evidenced by a significant decline in the Finished Goods Inventory Index, suggesting a preference for consuming existing stock rather than expanding production[6] - The current economic recovery appears to be structural rather than broad-based, with price increases driven more by supply constraints and changes in expectations rather than a robust recovery in downstream demand[6]

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The production index rose to 50.8% in August, up from 50.5% in July, while the new orders index increased to 49.5% from 49.4%[2] - The gap between supply and demand widened to 1.3 percentage points, suggesting production still exceeds demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI for factory prices and raw material purchase prices increased by 0.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, reaching 49.1% and 53.3% respectively, marking three consecutive months of price increases[3] - Finished goods inventory index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 46.8%, while raw material inventory and procurement volume rose to 48% and 50.4% respectively[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI increase of 0.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 46.6%, and medium enterprises fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.9%[5] - The service sector's business activity index improved to 50.5%, driven by summer consumption in transportation and entertainment[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The PMI's recovery reflects initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition, but the manufacturing sector remains under pressure with five consecutive months in contraction territory[7] - Continued policy support is necessary, especially for demand-side measures, to sustain economic improvement as export pressures may increase in October[7]

经济观察网 国家统计局数据显示，8月份高技术制造业和装备制造业PMI分别为51.9%和50.5%，比上月 上升1.3和0.2个百分点，支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业PMI为49.2%，比上月下降0.3个百分点； 高耗能行业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平连续回升。 （原标题：国家统计局：8月份高技术制造业和装备制造业PMI分别为51.9%和50.5%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of improvement in August, with key indices indicating a continued expansion in economic activity [1][2][7]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August was reported at 49.4%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from July, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4]. - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [4]. - The new orders index was at 49.5%, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a modest rise in demand [4]. - The price indices for major raw materials and factory output were 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases, which suggests an overall improvement in market price levels [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, indicating a sustained expansion, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.6%, reflecting a slight improvement [4]. - The production and business activity expectations index was at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion in the sector [7][9]. - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, marking the highest level for the year, with certain industries like capital market services showing particularly strong growth [9]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting production [9]. - The business activity expectations index for the service sector was 57%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from July, indicating optimism among service providers regarding market prospects [9][10].

Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4, slightly below the expected 49.5 and marginally higher than the previous value of 49.3 [1] - This indicates a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, as a PMI below 50 suggests contraction [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3, matching the expected value and slightly exceeding the previous 50.1 [1] - This suggests a slight expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1] Overall Economic Activity - The composite PMI for August is 50.5, surpassing the previous 50.2 [1] - This indicates a marginal improvement in overall business activity across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese industrial sector**, specifically analyzing industrial profits and revenues for July and August 2023. Core Insights 1. **Year-over-Year Performance**: - China's industrial profits decreased by **1.1%** year-over-year (yoy) in July, an improvement from a **4.4%** decline in June [5] - Industrial revenue increased by **1.0%** yoy in July, compared to **1.5%** in June [5] 2. **Sequential Growth**: - Sequentially, industrial profits rose by **3.2%** non-annualized in July, down from **6.5%** in June [5] - Revenue saw a slight decline of **0.3%** non-annualized in July, contrasting with a **0.2%** increase in June [5] 3. **Sector Performance**: - Downstream industries experienced a profit increase of **3.8%** yoy in July, while upstream industries saw a profit decline of **13.5%** yoy [5] - The broad manufacturing sector contributed to a **3.6 percentage points** acceleration in industrial profit growth in July compared to June [5] 4. **Raw Material Sector**: - Profits in the raw material manufacturing sector surged by **36.9%** yoy in July, a significant recovery from a **5%** decline in June [5] - This growth aligns with rising domestic commodity prices, indicating the potential impact of government "anti-involution" policies [5] 5. **Profit Margins**: - Overall profit margins remained stable in July on a 12-month average basis, although upstream profit margins continued to lag behind downstream [5] PMI Forecasts - Expectations for August PMIs include: - NBS manufacturing PMI projected to remain flat at **49.3** [6] - RatingDog manufacturing PMI expected to rise to **50.0** from **49.5** in July, indicating slight export growth [6] - NBS non-manufacturing PMI anticipated to increase to **50.3** from **50.1** in July, driven by improvements in the financial services sector [6] Additional Considerations - High-frequency indicators, such as steel production, showed a marginal increase in August, suggesting some recovery in industrial activity [6] - Adverse weather conditions are likely to have continued disrupting construction activities in August [6] This summary encapsulates the key findings and forecasts regarding the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting both the challenges and potential recovery signals within the industry.

报告导读： 本周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转鸽，美国资产价格演绎降息 交易，美元走弱， 10 年期美债利率回落，美股反弹。我们认为 9 月美联储可能开启降 息，但是预防式基调和通胀影响下，速度不会太快，预计年内最多降息 2 次。欧央行方 面，通胀已不再是关注焦点， 9 月或按兵不动。 全球大类资产表现： 本周（ 2025.8.18-2025.8.22 ）， 全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。 其中，上证综指上涨 3.5% ，恒生指数上涨 0.3% ，标普 500 上涨 0.3% ，日经 225 指数下跌 1.7% ，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.4% ，优于新兴市场涨幅（ 0% ）。 大宗商品价格涨跌互现， 其中， IPE 布油期货上涨 2.5% ，标普 - 高盛商品指数上涨 2.1% ，伦敦金现上涨 1.1% ，南华商品指数下跌 0.4% 。 债市方 面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 7BP 至 4.26% 。美元指数较前一周下降 0.12% ，报收 97.72 ，日元升值 0.15% ，美元兑日元收 146.94 。 美国经济： 制造业景气度有所回升。 8 月美国 Markit 制 ...