以伊周末战况激烈，原油系期货跳空高开！WTI原油80美元看涨合约成交量激增，地缘风险能否持续推 动油价上涨？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks still pose disturbances to the market. The A-share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. To break out of the current oscillation pattern and elevate the valuation again, policy - driven fiscal expansion, intensified real - estate stabilization measures, and rapid advancement of supply - side reform are required [2][10] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events Next Week's View - Geopolitical risks continue to affect the market. The global stock market showed a roller - coaster trend this week, with the MSCI Global Index rising in the first four days and falling sharply on Friday. The A - share market remained in a high - level oscillation. The Sino - US talks in London earlier this week alleviated trade pressure, but the conflict between Israel and Iran on Friday increased geopolitical risks and impacted global risk assets, causing a sharp decline in the A - share market. Domestically, the economic momentum is weakening, and the abnormal valuation expansion of the A - share market is prominent [2][10] This Week's Key Events - On June 9th, China's May CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year, exports grew 4.8% year - on - year, and imports fell 3.4% year - on - year. The State Council held a special learning meeting on promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on improving people's livelihood [11][12][13] - On June 10th, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on promoting in - depth reform in Shenzhen, and the Chinese President had a phone call with the South Korean President to ensure the healthy development of Sino - South Korean relations [15][16] - On June 11th, China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks. China will implement zero - tariff measures for 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [17][18] - On June 12th, China and the US agreed to further play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and maintain communication [19][20] - On June 13th, China's M2 in May increased 7.9% year - on - year, and the Chinese President will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit [21][22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 0.25%, with emerging markets (+0.60%) > developed markets (-0.35%) > frontier markets (-0.47%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 3.64%, leading the world, while the German stock market fell 1.99%, performing the worst globally [1][23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, Chinese equity assets corrected. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1371.8 billion yuan, an increase of 171.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The A - share market was differentiated, with the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange performing poorly, while the ChiNext Index rose slightly by 0.22% [1][26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+5.11%), and the poorly performing industry was finance (-1.80%). In the Chinese market, energy led the rise (+2.27%), and daily consumption led the decline (-3.14%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 14 rose (23 last week) and 16 fell (7 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+3.95%), and the industry with the largest decline was food and beverages (-4.42%) [1][31] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards mid - cap stocks [36] Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [43] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [44] Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes - The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [45][50] Consensus Expected Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 remained flat at 8.16%, and that in 2026 was lowered to 8.12%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 36.79%, and that in 2026 was raised to 16.16%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 1.36%, and that in 2026 was raised to 19.38% [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] Tracking of Trading - Type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 18.5 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan compared with last week [61] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.5 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.2 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.9 billion [65][66][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Rebounded - The tire operating rate rebounded, and relevant charts show the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, and domestic crude steel daily output [72][74][75] Consumption Side: The Transaction Volume of New Homes Declined Significantly - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities declined significantly, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined. The price of crude oil rose to around $75 per barrel [81][91] Inflation Observation: Energy Prices Rose Significantly - Energy prices rose significantly, production material prices fluctuated at a low level, and agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [93][94]

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by Israel's new airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen [1] - Currently, gold is the preferred choice for hedging geopolitical risks, overshadowing the U.S. dollar, which has seen a slight rebound but is not the main recipient of safe-haven flows [1] Group 2 - Despite the prevailing risk sentiment in the gold market, the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key variable influencing long-term gold prices. The Fed maintained interest rates this week and hinted at possibly only one rate cut for the remainder of the year [3] - Market expectations suggest that if future inflation data declines more than anticipated or if the labor market shows signs of slowing, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially providing new upward momentum for gold prices [3] Group 3 - The weekly bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with significant upward potential. After a recent decline, gold prices have stabilized above the mid-range, indicating a strong upward trend [5] - Short-term price movements show a recent rise to 3447 followed by a correction to 3420, which is seen as a key support area. If this support is tested, it may present a buying opportunity [5] Group 4 - The outlook for next week suggests continuing to buy gold in the range of 3415-20, with a stop-loss at 08 and a target towards 3450-56 [7]

Group 1 - International oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude futures reaching $77.62 per barrel and Brent crude futures hitting $78.50 per barrel on June 13 [1] - Domestic crude oil futures closed at 532.5 yuan per barrel, marking a 7.9% increase, the largest single-day rise since October 8, 2024 [1] - The recovery in oil prices is supported by macroeconomic positive news, geopolitical drivers, and expectations of a strong seasonal demand in the oil market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has entered its consumption peak season, driven by increased demand for gasoline and diesel due to automotive travel, with crude oil inventories declining faster than expected [1] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July and August, indicating ongoing supply surplus pressure in the medium term [2] - The market anticipates a slowdown in demand growth in the second half of the year, leading to potential inventory accumulation and risks of downward price adjustments in the fourth quarter [2]

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以色列开启斩首行动，地缘事件通过影响供给预期传导至油价，刺激油价上行。现在，全球从 俄乌到印巴再到伊以，地缘冲突不断，复杂多变。原油作为大宗商品之王，影响着全球资产价 格和通胀的变化。当然，如果供给冲击落空，油价上涨过后仍将调整。 2025年原油市场的剧烈波动与特朗普的政策操作密不可分，地缘施压&OPEC影响油价走势， 今年的年度最佳宏观分析师将再次颁给特朗普一点也不过分。 原油价格的剧烈波动，对散户并不友好，清明节后跌停，今天接近涨停，这会导致投机者损失 惨重。要避免此类事件冲击，需从风险识别、策略优化、工具运用三方面构建系统性防御体 系。 隔夜以色列开启斩首行动，伊以冲突升级，黄金与原油大涨，相比之下原油表现更加激动， SC原油主力合约早盘涨停，空头极度恐慌。本轮原油大涨主要驱动是地缘风险抬升叠加前期 空头过度集中。 2025年6月13日，以色列发动 "雄狮崛起" 行动，空袭伊朗首都德黑兰的 IRGC总部，目标 直指伊朗核计划及军事领 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 贵金属市场周报 美元走弱提振金价，避险需求再度抬升 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场延续震荡偏强走势。周初因美国通胀预期回落至三个月低点，叠 加中美贸易谈判预期边际改善，金价承压回调。随后，美国5月CPI及PPI数据连续放缓，核心 服务通胀降温迹象显现，市场对美联储9月降息的预期升温，推动金价触底反弹。地缘风险持 续提振市场避险情绪，以色列对伊朗的突发袭击事件刺激避险需求，进一步支撑金价上行。 欧洲央行报告显示黄金超越欧元成为全球央行第二大储备资产，预示黄金的避险以及美元信 用对冲属性仍受到全球央行青睐。尽管中美贸易谈判中双方对日内瓦协议取得一致认同，但 缺乏具体实施的细节，后续不确定性仍存。整体来看，黄金在降息预期抬升、地缘风险及央 行购金的提振下维持震荡偏强运行，而银价则相对承压于短期超买后回调压力的释放。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

新华财经北京6月13日电（左元、张瑶）13日，国际油价大涨，SC原油、高硫燃料油涨超7%，低硫燃料油涨超5%，液化石油气、甲醇涨超4%，对二甲苯、 苯乙烯、沥青、PTA涨超3%，瓶片、短纤、鸡蛋涨超2%，塑料 、黄金、合成橡胶、棕榈油、乙二醇等涨超1%；纯碱、烧碱、工业硅跌超2%，碳酸锂、氧 化铝、沪锌、玻璃、纸浆跌超1%。 截至13日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1378.02点，较前一交易日上涨15.89点，涨幅1.17%；中证商品期货指数收报1908.83点，较前一交易日上涨 22.39点，涨幅1.19%。 地缘风险驱动原油系集体大涨 SC原油、燃料油和甲醇一度触及涨停 由于以色列袭击伊朗引发市场对中东石油供应可能中断的担忧，国际油价大幅拉涨，带动内盘原油系相关品种13日强劲上涨，其中SC原油、燃料油和甲醇 盘中更是一度触及涨停，午后涨幅有所收窄，但SC原油和燃料油主力合约终盘仍分别收涨7.90%和7.48%。低硫燃料油（LU）、液化石油气（LPG）和甲醇 主力合约也分别录得5.19%、4.68%和4.14%的涨幅。 国际油价今日出现多年来最大单日百分比涨幅，反映出市场对于中东石油正常生产格局的担忧 ...

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以色列开启斩首行动，地缘事件通过影响供给预期传导至油价，刺激油价上行。现在，全球从 俄乌到印巴再到伊以，地缘冲突不断，复杂多变。原油作为大宗商品之王，影响着全球资产价 格和通胀的变化。当然，如果供给冲击落空，油价上涨过后仍将调整。 2025年原油市场的剧烈波动与特朗普的政策操作密不可分，地缘施压&OPEC影响油价走势， 今年的年度最佳宏观分析师将再次颁给特朗普一点也不过分。 原油价格的剧烈波动，对散户并不友好，清明节后跌停，今天接近涨停，这会导致投机者损失 惨重。要避免此类事件冲击，需从风险识别、策略优化、工具运用三方面构建系统性防御体 系。 隔夜以色列开启斩首行动，伊以冲突升级，黄金与原油大涨，相比之下原油表现更加激动， SC原油主力合约早盘涨停，空头极度恐慌。本轮原油大涨主要驱动是地缘风险抬升叠加前期 空头过度集中。 2025年6月13日，以色列发动 "雄狮崛起" 行动，空袭伊朗首都德黑兰的 IRGC总部，目标 直指伊朗核计划及军事领导人。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].