| Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月06日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，持仓继续增加,商品整体偏强,市场做多情绪偏高;现货销售一般,基差总体持稳。虽然新棉增产幅度较 大,但商业库存同比偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号,累计 加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商业库存同比偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products have short - term fluctuations due to factors like oil price and policy, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand balance and capacity changes [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose as market sentiment improved and inventory was low [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also increased. PE was supported by macro factors and cost, and PP was supported by factory prices and inventory control [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated. High imports and inventory pressured the market, but there was a mid - line opportunity for positive spread arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were stable. Production was smooth, and export news supported the market [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose with oil price and market sentiment. Polyester demand was weak, and the industry faced negative feedback [5] - Ethylene glycol had an expected increase in domestic supply and a decrease in overseas supply. It was pressured in the long - term but might improve in Q2 [5] - Short fiber prices followed raw materials. It was necessary to pay attention to downstream stocking [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened. It was cost - driven and faced long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to geopolitical events. Coastal inventory might suppress the short - term market, but imports were expected to decrease in the medium - term [6] - Urea prices kept rising. Supply recovery was slow, and demand was expected to increase [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC rose due to a policy. Supply increased, demand was low, and there was a possibility of capacity reduction in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda was affected by a policy. Supply was high, and future alumina production cuts might limit its rise [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Supply increased, demand decreased, and there was a long - term over - capacity problem [8] - Glass also oscillated. Production capacity was expected to be compressed, and demand was insufficient [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day, the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous metals has become steeper, with aluminum and copper leading the gains, and the aluminum price has rapidly approached the historical peak. The current spot market for aluminum is weak, but it may have reached the worst state, and the basis spread is expected to bottom out [1]. - In the mid - 2026 supply - demand situation with supply constraints, diversified demand, tight balance, and low inventory - consumption ratio, the market environment can support the upward movement of the aluminum price center. The systematic capital linkage allocation in the sector also helps increase price elasticity, and this bull - market capital layout is earlier and faster. If the equity market starts the spring rally in the first quarter, the upward space of aluminum metal is still worth looking forward to [1]. - The importance of position management is increasing as the price volatility of aluminum at high levels is likely to expand. It is necessary to use options and other tools for risk hedging while keeping a futures bottom - position [1]. - Future risk points for a potential peak include the performance of overseas Al - related equity assets and downstream processing profit indicators [1]. Group 3: Option - related Suggestions - For investors with a long - position in futures, it is recommended to consider buying put options with a moderate period and moderate out - of - the - money degree to protect against the callback risk of long positions, or replace long futures positions with in - the - money call options to control the callback risk [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, and the current demand may continue to be sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4875 - 4963. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The output of calcium - carbide - based enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 29.78%, 35.6%, 66.43%, and 80.75% respectively, with varying degrees of decline or flat compared to the previous period, all higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium - carbide - based production was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2102.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On January 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 249 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. Social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and short positions increased [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, and costs of different types of PVC (such as calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as their changes compared to the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures base price, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [19]. - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of the PVC main contract, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends between different contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium - Carbide - Based - **Lump Coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of lump coke used in calcium - carbide production [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The report presents the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of caustic soda. It also shows the cost - profit of Shandong chlor - alkali and the double - ton price difference [36][39]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It presents the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40][42]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also presents the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new - issue special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [45][47][52]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium - carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene - Based - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1177 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1120 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.34%. The main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [23] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [26] - The daily melting capacity of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [29] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historical high for the same period [35] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the industry's effective production capacity, output, and apparent supply generally showed an upward trend, but there were fluctuations in the supply - demand gap [36] 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to reduced maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3] - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2025, there were still large - scale production plans, and the industry output was at a historical high. The demand for soda ash decreased due to the production reduction of photovoltaic glass [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 铂：情绪复苏，恢复偏强势 钯：跟随铂 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨幅 | 铂金期货2606 | 616. 80 | 5. 63% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金交所铂金 | 605. 53 | 5. 56% | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2428. 30 | 6.13% | | | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2399.60 | 5.24% | 471. 90 | 纪金期货2606 | 4. 21% | | | | | | 421.00 | 人民币现货把金 | 1. 45% | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1,892. 50 | 6. 80% | | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.829.50 | 6. 80% | 较前日变动 | 较前日变动 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | | | | 广铂(千克) | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏暖，铁矿石期价高位偏强运行，但供需格局持续走弱，港存高位攀升，钢厂开始复产， 矿石终端消耗迎来回升，但盈利状况改善有限，且淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，需求改善空间受限。 与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升，且后续存有增量空间，而年末冲量结束后矿商发运开始回落，相 应的 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 LLDPE：标品排产回落，现货坚挺 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6579 | 2.02% | 542093 | -1038 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -179 | | -129 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -39 | | -47 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6400 | | 6320 | | | | 华 东 | 6450 | | 6400 | | | | 华 南 | 6490 | | 6470 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货震荡走强，节前盘面反弹给到代理、期现商建仓机会，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤震荡整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...