1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend. Pig prices are rebounding due to policy - driven capacity reduction and expected demand growth during peak seasons. Jujube prices are rising strongly because of expected production decline and upcoming holiday stocking. Sugar prices continue to fall due to the expected increase in imported sugar. Other products like soybean oil, palm oil, etc., also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices are rebounding, supported by policy - driven anti - involution capacity reduction and expected demand growth during the back - to - school season and Mid - Autumn Festival. Jujube prices are rising strongly as high - temperature weather in production areas causes concerns about reduced new jujube production, and the stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has begun. Sugar prices continue to fall to new lows due to the expected increase in imported sugar [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs is oscillating upwards, reaching a one - week high. Although high - temperature weather still weakens consumption demand, with the temperature dropping after the Beginning of Autumn, fresh pork sales are expected to improve. The upcoming back - to - school season will boost centralized consumption, and farmers may hold back pigs for weight gain. The strategy is to hold a light long position in the main 2511 contract and close short positions in the near - month 2509 contract, with support at 13920 and resistance at 14060 [2]. 3.2.2 Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujube has risen strongly to a new high. High - temperature and dry weather in August (the fruit expansion period) in Xinjiang has raised concerns about reduced yields. Preliminary estimates suggest that new jujube production will be 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has started, which is expected to drive inventory clearance. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 10950 and resistance at 11350 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil continued to rise to a new high but reduced its gains. Domestic oil mills have high operating rates, resulting in high production and inventory. However, oil mills are actively exporting to relieve supply pressure, and the market still expects a supply gap in the future and an increase in demand in the second half of August. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8336 and resistance at 8500 [5]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expected increase in imported sugar. As the quantity of processed sugar increases, the de - stocking of domestic sugar may slow down, and the start of production in northern sugar mills in September will also add pressure. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5650 and resistance at 5699 [7]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to close down, undergoing high - level adjustment. The market expects an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports in the August 11 MPOB monthly supply - demand report, with high inventory pressure. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9076 [10]. 3.2.6 Corn - The main 2509 contract of corn continued to rebound from a low level but faced resistance. The continuous auction of imported corn by Sinograin and wheat substitution, along with weak downstream demand, still pressure the corn market. However, low inventory, low imports, and weather risks for new corn support the price rebound. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2250 and resistance at 2271 [11][13]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The main 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound from a low level but did not change the downward trend. The high inventory of laying hens (1.292 billion in July, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%) and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs exert supply pressure. However, some markets have bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drops. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3350 and resistance at 3410 [14]. 3.2.8 Bean Meal - The 2509 contract of bean meal first declined and then rose, continuing high - level fluctuations. High domestic oil - mill operating rates in July led to increased bean - meal output and inventory. However, the rising cost of imported soybeans and expected supply shortages in the future support the price. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3006 and resistance at 3050 [16]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed down, showing narrow - range fluctuations. Xinjiang cotton is growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although commercial inventory is at a low level, the expectation of issuing sliding - scale duty quotas is increasing, and downstream textile demand is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13600 and resistance at 13800 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples continued to reverse and rise, entering an upward trend. Apple inventory is low (57.61 million tons as of July 31, 41.05 million tons lower than last year, and 53.39 million tons as of August 6, continuing to decline). The price of early - maturing apples in the west is higher than last year. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 7900 and resistance at 8000 [20].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1357 281 | -13 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -6 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1076 1000998 | -7 62018 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1053528 | -62488 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -353748 | -3042 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -242630 | 1430 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2812 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1943 | 243 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -90 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -144 | 4 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -17 | 92 | | | 玻璃基差 | 28 | 7 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1340 | 79 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 | -25 | | ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated slightly higher, boosting the spot market. Most enterprises kept their prices stable, and the cost support for the supply remained largely unchanged. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. However, downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. - The PP trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 was 7095, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume was 162,173, and the open interest decreased by 1671 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 09 contract was -95 (previous day: -94), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was -25 (previous day: -31) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price ranged from 6920 - 7060 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton; and in South China, it was 6960 - 7150 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures had a small upward fluctuation, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Most enterprise prices were stable, and the cost support for the supply did not change much. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. Downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. Trend Intensity - The PP trend strength is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4][7] - Rebar: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Hot - rolled coil: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Ferrosilicon: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Coke: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][20] Core Views - The report provides the latest price, trading volume, position, and other fundamental data for various black - series commodities, along with their price changes and trend intensities [6][9][13] - It also includes macro and industry news such as manufacturing PMI data, steel production data, and price policy announcements [6][10][11] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The futures price closed at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day; the position decreased by 26,208 lots to 358,293 lots. Among the imported ores, PB (61.5%) dropped 4 yuan to 776 yuan/ton, and the super - special (56.5%) dropped 2 yuan to 650 yuan/ton. The domestic ores remained stable [6] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [6] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a relatively bearish trend [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Changes**: The RB2510 futures of rebar closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.75%; the HC2510 futures of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.41%. The spot prices of rebar in major cities increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, while most of the spot prices of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [9] - **Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron decreased by 4.5%, and steel products increased by 0.5%. According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Changes**: The silicon iron 2509 futures closed at 5,908 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan; the silicon manganese 2509 futures closed at 6,096 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The spot price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan to 5,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicon manganese increased by 50 yuan to 5,850 yuan/ton [13] - **Industry News**: On August 6, the price of silicon iron 72 in some regions changed, and UMK announced a 0.15 - dollar increase in the manganese ore quotation for September [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, showing a relatively bullish trend [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Changes**: The JM2509 futures of coking coal closed at 1,074 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 3.8%; the J2509 futures of coke closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.6%. The spot price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased by 105 yuan to 1,395 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [18] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19] Logs - **Price Changes**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 832.5 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 52.3%. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, similar to sugar, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, with a bullish drive but limited market operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, bullish drive but weak market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report provides operation suggestions for various soft commodities, mainly including waiting and seeing for most products, and maintaining a long - biased idea for timber futures [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Today, Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and average trading; pure cotton yarn prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased as needed [2] - After continuous decline, cotton prices stabilized. Low cotton inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down [2] - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, processing profit was under pressure, and warehouse receipt digestion was slow [2] - There is a strong expectation of production increase in Xinjiang in the new year, with increased planting area and ideal weather [2] - Operation: wait and see for now; for spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy for September - November [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the 25/26 season in the central - south is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease, but the sugar production is expected to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio [3] - In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July in Guangxi, 355,500 tons of sugar were sold, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [3] - Domestic sugar remaining inventory is low, and inventory pressure is light. The decisive factor for the market is the national sugar production in the 25/26 season, and weather uncertainty exists [3] - Operation: wait and see [3] Apple - Apple prices fluctuated. As the production season nears the end, cold - storage remaining inventory is low, and traders are eager to sell, leading to weak prices [4] - The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, with prices starting high and then falling. Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples is average, and the quantity of high - quality products is small [4] - As of August 1st, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, a 46.2% year - on - year decrease; last week's de - stocking volume was 72,000 tons, a 26.9% year - on - year decline [4] - The market focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. The western production area was affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, increasing the risk of fruit rust, but the impact on production is small. There are still differences in production estimates [4] - Operation: wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, synthetic rubber prices were stable, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand generally increased [6] - Supply: global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas; last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased further, some plants planned to overhaul or restart, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate slightly declined [6] - Demand: last week, the domestic all - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to decline slightly due to plant maintenance or load reduction. Terminal market demand was weak, and tire finished - product inventory decreased [6] - Inventory: this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 631,800 tons; last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,900 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 10,400 tons [6] - Strategy: wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian needles in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% month - on - month decline [7] - Currently, domestic import inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and it's the traditional off - season. The pulp fundamentals are still weak [7] - Prices may return to low - level fluctuations. Operation: wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable [8] - Supply: it's still the off - season for New Zealand timber shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous timber remains low. Although external prices have rebounded for two months, domestic spot prices are still weak, and traders face more pressure, so imports are unlikely to increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8] - Demand: after entering the off - season, the average daily port outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [8] - Inventory: as of August 1, the total national port timber inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory pressure [8] - Fundamentals have improved, spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season approaches, timber inventory will gradually decrease, and short - term spot prices will rebound, and futures prices are expected to continue rising. Operation: maintain a long - biased idea [8]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices are declining as of early August 2025, alongside a retreat in the domestic "anti-involution" trend, leading to an overall correction in the commodity market [1] - The trade war between the US and India, along with supply issues related to Russian oil, are significant events that could impact the futures market [3] - The Sina Finance Futures Channel provides a platform for investors to access timely and accurate information, professional analysis, and real-time market data [3][4] Group 2 - The channel offers global real-time market data, allowing investors to track major futures prices, trading volumes, and open interest easily [5] - Investors can utilize various technical indicators for in-depth market trend analysis, enhancing their ability to make informed decisions [5] - The futures community feature enables investors to share insights and experiences, fostering collaboration and knowledge exchange among traders [6] Group 3 - The Sina Finance Futures Channel is designed to meet the needs of investors by providing authoritative interpretations, real-time data, and a professional communication platform [8][9] - The platform allows users to customize their experience by setting alerts for specific futures prices, ensuring they do not miss critical market changes [8] - The channel aims to be the go-to resource for futures investors seeking comprehensive and timely information in a rapidly changing market environment [9]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The basis is - 1010 with a spot price of 14450, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, with a neutral situation [6]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [6][8]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on August 5th, and the basis weakened on August 5th [10][37]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [8]. 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 14450, and the basis is - 1010, showing a bearish situation [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most varieties are rated as 'Cautiously Bearish', some as 'Bearish' [1][2] Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and macro - policy impacts lead to downward price pressure [1][2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Partially take profit on short positions due to supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks [1][3] - **Key Points**: OPEC's planned September production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, combined with the mid - to - late peak season, causes downward pressure on oil prices. The key support level is around $60 per barrel [5][7] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions [1][8] - **Key Points**: Cost - end oil price decline and Saudi's CP contract price reduction drag down LPG. Although the fundamentals are okay, there is short - term downward pressure [10][11] L (PE) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions [1][13] - **Key Points**: Spot prices fall, inventory accumulates, and supply pressure increases. New capacity is expected to be put into production in August [16] PP - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 9 - 1 calendar spreads [1][19] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is weak, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream. Third - quarter production capacity pressure is high [23] PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1][26] - **Key Points**: Rising raw material costs, postponed maintenance, and new capacity release lead to inventory accumulation in August [29] PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions and sell put options [1][32] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with high inventory. PXN is not low, and there is a lack of macro - level positive factors [34] PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and sell put options [1][36] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure may increase with new device production, while demand is weak. The processing fee is low [38] MEG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions, sell put options, and look for low - buying opportunities [1][40] - **Key Points**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with low inventory. Market sentiment has cooled [42] Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][44] - **Key Points**: Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption leads to inventory reduction [47] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][49] - **Key Points**: Macro - policy hype has cooled, supply has decreased slightly, but inventory remains high, and the supply - demand surplus persists [52] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bearish, the price range has declined [2][54] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is balanced, inventory is high year - on - year, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. The downstream alumina market has corrected [57] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on 09 short positions, sell call options, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2][59] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure increases with the resumption of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is accumulating [60] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [2] - **Key Points**: Production capacity is expected to increase, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, but exports are relatively good [2] Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 1 - 2 calendar spreads [2] - **Key Points**: Spot prices are weak, cost support is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [2]