Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]

文字早评 2025/05/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.80%，创指+0.51%，科创 50+0.36%，北证 50-0.46%，上证 50+0.87%，沪深 300+0.61%， 中证 500+0.17%，中证 1000+0.14%，中证 2000+0.74%，万得微盘+1.22%。两市合计成交 14683 亿，较上 一日+1321 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、潘功胜：将下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，并下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从目前的 1.5% 下调到 1.4%，同时下调住房公积金利率 0.25 个百分点。 2、A 股 4 月新开户 192 万户，同比增长 31%。 3、证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、 费率调降。 资金面：融资额+143.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-4.50bp 至 1.6570%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.04bp 至 3.0940%，十年期国债利率+1.76bp 至 1.6458%，信用利差-1.72bp 至 145bp；美国 10 年期利率-6.00bp ...

房地产再迎重磅利好。 央行推出三大类共十项一揽子货币政策措施，一是数量型政策，通过普遍降准和定向降准加大中长期流动性供给。二是价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低 结构性货币政策工具利率，调降公积金贷款利率。三是结构型政策，完善现有结构性货币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普 惠金融等领域。 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从6.6%降至6.2%，降低银行负债成本，增强银 行体系对购房者和开发企业的贷款能力，这将缓解房企开发贷及供应链融资压力，尤其是民营房企的信用风险溢价有望收窄。 图源：丁祖昱评楼市 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。会上，央行宣布推出包括降准降息在内的三大类十项举措，金 融监管局将推出八项增量政策，包括完善房地产系列融资制度等。 针对房地产市场，央行和金融监管总局推出几大增量金融政策，加力巩固房地产止跌回稳势头。内容具体表现在以下几个方面： 政策通过"降成本+扩需求+稳预期"三管齐下，将直接降低购房成本，提振市场交易活跃度，缓解房企流动性压力。 01 降准又降 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - As of May 7, 2025, the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020) closed at 117.41 CNY, with a recent half-year cumulative increase of 3.48% [1] - The trading volume for the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF was 5.27 billion CNY, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 35.89% [1] - The latest scale of the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF reached 1.469 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion CNY into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [2] - Analysts believe that the recent rate cuts have already been priced into the 10-year government bonds, with expectations of a 30 basis point reduction, suggesting that a further 10 basis point cut may not be viewed as favorable [2] - East China Securities noted that the bond market may experience a "good news already priced in" scenario, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Company Bond ETF (511030) closed at 105.6 CNY, with a half-year cumulative increase of 1.14% [3] - The trading volume for the Company Bond ETF was 15.87 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 11.84%, indicating a vibrant trading environment [3] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 13.397 billion CNY, marking a one-year high [3] Group 4: National Development Bond ETF Insights - The National Development Bond ETF (159651) closed at 105.95 CNY, with a one-year cumulative increase of 2.10% [6] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 68.96 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.14% [6] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF grew by 296 million CNY over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [6] Group 5: ETF Product Composition - The "Three Musketeers" of the bond ETFs managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020), covering a range of durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [9]

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：库存持续下降，限制价格回落 | 4 | | 铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 10 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 12 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势 | 14 | | 多晶硅：盘面再创上市新低 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：成本重心延续下移，累库格局制约反弹 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 白银：震荡回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投 ...

每日报告 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2505 | 22745 | 22675 | 22870 | 22650 | -30 | -0.13 | 8490 | -2565 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 2 ...

5月7日，A股在降准降息利好刺激下大幅高开，但随后承压回落，市场成交额放大至1.5万亿元，军工产 业全线走强，AI应用及算力方向高开低走。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.8%报3342.67点，深证成指涨 0.22%，创业板指涨0.51%，中证A500指数涨0.51%。 资金加仓核心宽基，近两个交易日，A500ETF基金（512050）净流入超1亿元。 相关ETF全称：华夏中证A500ETF（512050），联接基金(A类:022430;C类:022431) （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 昨日，三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点， 设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括加快出台适配房地 产发展新模式的融资制度、再批复600亿元保险资金长期投资试点等。证监会将全力支持中央汇金发挥 好类"平准基金"作用，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施等。 申万宏源证券认为，发布会召开节点本身就体现了稳定资本市场的政策目标。短期A股市场所处的节 点 ...

5月7日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部门负责人同台发声，详细介 绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"相关举措，向市场释放积极信号：面对复杂多变的全球经济形 势，中国正以更积极、更精准的政策工具，为市场稳定与经济增长"保驾护航"。 记者注意到，政策公布后，A股市场迅速反应，三大指数集体上涨。贾婷婷预计，短期内股指将再度出 现趋势性行情。"分指数来看，上证50和沪深300两个指数中内需相关企业占比较大，即便中美贸易争端 持续，其受影响的程度也相对较小；中证500和中证1000两个指数中成长型企业占比较大，其中以出口 为主的消费电子类企业受中美贸易争端的影响较大。" 进一步细分板块，贾婷婷认为，降准降息直接利好金融机构，尤其是银行。降准降息有利于银行扩充资 金来源、增强放贷能力，进而提升盈利水平。另外，推动中长期资金入市、支持上市公司并购重组等政 策措施，将为券商带来更多的业务机会。金融板块表现值得期待。 展望A股表现，郁泓佳预计，二季度市场将震荡偏强运行。一方面，促内需政策措施的推进对冲了外需 下降压力；另一方面，中美贸易争端有所缓和与国内财政政策发力等因素支撑风险偏好。 从结构来看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts is the beginning of monetary easing, and broad - spectrum interest rates need to decline further. The future easing policy may continue due to the impact of tariff increases on the export and the downward pressure on prices [2]. - Interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are direct positives for the bond market. The decline in short - term interest rates will drive down long - term interest rates. The current 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit have high allocation value, and ultra - long bonds have allocation value under the bond - loan price comparison effect [20][21]. - The stock market's rise is not necessarily a negative for the bond market. If it is driven by loose liquidity, it may lead to a situation of both stocks and bonds rising [25]. - Credit expansion depends on the subsequent fiscal and credit expansion policies. The current fundamental situation is under pressure from tariff increases and price changes [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Monetary Policy Measures - **Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut**: Lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the financial market. Temporarily reduce the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [7]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: Lower the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, and it is expected to drive the loan prime rate (LPR) down by 0.1 percentage points. Guide commercial banks to lower deposit interest rates through the interest rate self - regulatory mechanism [7]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Reduce the individual housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. The interest rate for first - home loans over five - year terms drops from 2.85% to 2.6%, and other terms are adjusted accordingly, saving residents over 20 billion yuan in provident fund loan interest annually [8]. - **Structural Monetary Policy**: Lower the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. Set up a 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care re - loan. Increase the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and increase the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 300 billion yuan [9]. - **Stock Market Policy**: Optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, combining the quotas of 500 billion yuan for securities, fund, and insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase re - loans, with a total quota of 800 billion yuan [10]. Market Reaction - Before the current round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, market expectations were strong. After the implementation, the market's profit - taking amplitude was limited, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds only rose by about 1 - 2bp [12]. - In the past three interest rate cut processes since mid - 2022, interest rates declined before the cuts due to market expectations. After the cuts, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate declined in the following few trading days, then rebounded [12]. Interest Rate Trend and Bond Investment Value - The decline in short - term interest rates will open up space for the decline of long - term interest rates. The current 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit have high allocation value [20]. - Comparing the 30 - year treasury bond with the new - issued mortgage loan interest rate, if the LPR is synchronously lowered by 10bp, the current 30 - year treasury bond with a yield of about 1.85% has allocation value [21]. - The overall interest rate curve is expected to shift downward, and long - term bond yields are expected to reach new lows [31]. Fundamental Situation and Policy Impact - The current fundamentals are under the impact of tariff increases and price pressure. The impact of tariff increases on exports may be lagged, leading to a continuous slowdown in export growth. The downward pressure on overall industrial product prices and prices has increased [2]. - The implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts reflects the emphasis on the macro - economy, but credit expansion depends on the subsequent fiscal and credit expansion policies [28].

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