11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR两个品种报价已连续6个月保持不 变。 多位受访的业内人士指出，本月LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。展望未来，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有 一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。市场对未来大幅度降准降息的预期有所减弱。下一阶段，货 币政策或将更加注重精准、协同和均衡。 缺乏下调动力 LPR报价继续"按兵不动" LPR报价持续"按兵不动"，业内人士指出，这符合市场预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7 天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR报价较难下降。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青指出，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主 要中长端市场利率稳中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史 最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动。"王青指出， ...

着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度经济运行，稳增长政策如何接续发力？ 央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏中提出，"保持合理的利率比价关系"。董希淼认为，这表明，央行 将审慎对待利率变化，引导市场减少资金空转套利，畅通货币政策传导，增强政策的有效性。未来一段 时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可 能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步 大幅度降准降息的预期。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净息差 为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务 之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出 口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降， 货币政策保持较强定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating stability in monetary policy amid mixed economic signals [1][2] Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months since a reduction in May, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged pricing basis from the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about growth momentum [2] - The central bank's upcoming monetary policy may include new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate economic activity, particularly in light of low inflation levels [2] - The anticipated fiscal measures, including two 500 billion yuan initiatives, are expected to support the economy and potentially lead to lower LPR rates, thereby encouraging financing demand [2]

"从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR较 难下降。"招联金融首席研究员董希淼对《华夏时报》记者表示，从银行方面看，随着持续向实体经济 减费让利，银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小。三季度末商业银行净息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度持平，但较 去年四季度末下降了10个基点。因此，银行缺乏压降LPR报价加点的动力。 文/刘佳 11月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉。其中，5年期以上LPR报3.5%，上月为 3.5%。1年期LPR报3%，上月为3%。LPR继续选择"按兵不动"，连续6个月保持不变，符合市场预期。 谈及下一阶段货币政策，董希淼认为，未来一段时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边 际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资 本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步大幅度降准降息的预期。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1] - Analyst Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the stability of the LPR in November aligns with market expectations after a significant drop of 25 basis points in October [1] - The PBOC is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance through 2025, with flexibility to adjust rates as needed to support economic recovery and respond to external trade conditions [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's monetary policy, now predicting a reduction in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, delayed from the previous estimate of the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - The expectation for a 10 basis point interest rate cut has been postponed from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of liquidity operations to maintain a stable monetary environment, with a focus on increasing liquidity while keeping interest rates steady [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On November 17, the PBOC conducted a 1.40% fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 283 billion yuan for 7 days, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan after 119.9 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The PBOC also executed an 800 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo operation, which added 500 billion yuan to the existing liquidity, continuing the trend of increased liquidity management [1][2]. - In November, the PBOC's net injection through buyout reverse repos reached 500 billion yuan, marking a 100 billion yuan increase from October and the sixth consecutive month of increased operations [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown an upward trend since November 13, with the overnight rate rising from 1.3150% to 1.5080%, an increase of 19.3 basis points [1]. - The 7-day Shibor increased from 1.4740% to 1.5140%, while the 1-month Shibor saw a slight rise from 1.5180% to 1.5200% [1]. - The PBOC aims to maintain a balance in liquidity, indicating that while short-term funding may experience tension, the overall liquidity remains reasonable [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need for moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose [3]. - Analysts suggest that a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts may occur before the end of the year, driven by external environment fluctuations and domestic economic conditions [3]. - The focus for the fourth quarter will be on "quantity and price coordination" and structural effectiveness, utilizing tools like buyout reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to optimize credit structure [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various operations, indicating a trend towards maintaining stable interest rates while ensuring sufficient liquidity in the market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On November 17, the PBOC conducted a fixed-rate reverse repo operation of 2,830 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan after accounting for 1,199 billion yuan maturing [1]. - The PBOC also executed an 800 billion yuan six-month buyout reverse repo operation, increasing the amount by 500 billion yuan, continuing the trend of enhanced liquidity management [1][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Since November 13, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown an upward trend, with the overnight rate rising from 1.3150% to 1.5080%, an increase of 19.3 basis points [3]. - The seven-day Shibor increased from 1.4740% to 1.5140%, while the one-month Shibor saw a slight rise from 1.5180% to 1.5200% [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Outlook - The recent rise in funding rates is attributed to factors such as tax periods, government bond payments, and the impact of the "Double 11" shopping festival, which temporarily tightened liquidity in the banking system [3][4]. - The PBOC aims to provide a stable medium-term funding environment while maintaining reasonable liquidity, as indicated in its third-quarter monetary policy report [4]. - Analysts suggest that a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts may occur before the end of the year, driven by external economic fluctuations and domestic growth dynamics [5]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued moderate easing of monetary policy, focusing on coordinated volume and price strategies [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The main economic indicators weakened in October, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the economy [7] - The three pillars supporting the economy are under pressure, with negative growth in infrastructure and real estate investments [7] - The central bank has indicated the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, suggesting that policy rate cuts and new tools may be key to economic support in the coming months [7] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The small nucleic acid drug market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately $62 billion in 2024 and $467 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 25% [12] - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a leader in the siRNA field, with strong commercialization performance and a revenue of $2.617 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 58% year-on-year increase [13] - The industry is characterized by a high degree of activity in business development transactions, with over $45 billion in cumulative transactions in the siRNA sector from 2018 to November 2025 [12] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - The 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 1.695 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with the home appliance sector showing resilience and growth [14][15] - Home appliances accounted for 266.8 billion yuan in sales during the event, representing a 38.2% increase year-on-year, indicating a shift towards smart and integrated appliances [15] - Companies like Haier, Midea, and TCL achieved significant sales milestones, with over 10 billion yuan in transactions during the festival [15] Group 4: Transportation Industry - The express delivery sector experienced record volumes during the "Double Eleven" period, with 13.938 billion packages collected, marking a 117.8% increase in daily average volume compared to regular operations [20] - The oil transportation market is expected to strengthen in December, with VLCC daily earnings reaching $124,000, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by increased demand from the Middle East and Brazil [22] - The logistics sector is benefiting from improved collaboration with e-commerce platforms, enhancing operational efficiency and supporting consumer demand [20] Group 5: Precious Metals - The precious metals market is poised for potential upward movement, with gold prices recently rebounding but not surpassing previous highs, influenced by the end of the U.S. government shutdown and upcoming economic data releases [36][38] - Gold and silver prices have shown recent increases, with gold reaching $4,071.10 per ounce and silver at $52.01 per ounce, reflecting market reactions to economic conditions [35] - The market is closely monitoring key upcoming economic reports, including non-farm payrolls and GDP revisions, which could impact precious metal prices [38]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various operations, including reverse repos, to maintain a stable financial environment amid short-term pressures on liquidity [1][3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On November 17, the PBOC conducted a fixed-rate reverse repo operation of 2,830 billion yuan for 7 days at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan after accounting for 1,199 billion yuan maturing [1]. - Additionally, the PBOC executed an 8,000 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo operation, which is an increase of 5,000 billion yuan from the previous month, continuing the trend of enhanced liquidity management [1][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since November 13, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown an upward trend, with the overnight rate rising from 1.3150% to 1.5080%, an increase of 19.3 basis points [2]. - The short-term liquidity tension is attributed to factors such as government bond issuance, interbank certificate maturity pressures, and tax payments, which have led to a decrease in bank lending [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC's recent report indicates a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively relaxed while enhancing the monetary policy framework [4]. - Analysts suggest that a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts may occur before the end of the year, driven by external economic fluctuations and domestic growth dynamics [4][5]. - The focus for the fourth quarter is expected to be on "quantity-price coordination and structural efforts," utilizing tools like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to optimize credit structure [5].

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