金十数据5月1日讯，周四金价下跌至两周低点，因贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象增强了风险偏好，降低了黄 金的避险吸引力，同时美元走强也令金价承压。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，"市场仍对美国将 很快与其他国家签署较低关税协议抱有信心，这种乐观情绪加上美元走强，正对金价构成压力。"投资 者等待周五的非农就业报告，以进一步了解美联储的政策方向。Giovanni Staunovo表示，"就业报告疲 弱应会支持美联储今年进一步降息的呼声，并使金价在未来几个月回升至3500美元/盎司。" 瑞银：非农或是黄金重回3500的救命稻草 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 4 月 29 日 关税预期进一步放缓，金价明显回调 黄金周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） 核心观点 关税预期进一步放缓，避险情绪回落，叠加多头获利了结， 上周金价有所回调。上周五（4 月 25 日），沪金主力期货价格 较前周五下跌 0.48%至 787.20 元/克，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 0.29%至 784.93 元/克；上周五，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前 周四（4 月 17 日）下跌 0.33%至 3330.20 美元/盎司；伦敦金 现货价格较前周四下跌 0.24%至 3318.76 美元/盎司。具体来 看，随着金价上行至历史高位区间，市场恐高情绪引发部分资 金获利了结，进而导致金价下跌。同时，美国财长贝森特暗示 中美贸易紧张局势有望很快缓解，加之特朗普表示无意解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔，带动市场风险偏好回升，美元指数有所反弹， 对金价造成一定压制。整体上看，受市场关税预期进一步缓和、 避险情绪回落以及资金获利了结影响，上周金价明显回调。 本周（4 月 28 日当周）黄金价格或将震荡调整。近期金价冲 上历史高 ...

周二(4月29日)欧市盘中，国际黄金继续维持区间震荡，截至发稿报3324.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.58%，今 日金价开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3348.36美元/盎司，最低触及3304.69美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 尽管市场风险偏好短暂回升，市场仍保持高度关注美联储政策路径。市场普遍预期美联储将在6月恢复 降息周期，全年或将实施三次降息。 "在当前不确定性环境下，黄金仍是应对利率和地缘双重风险的核心配置。"OANDA分析师Craig Erlam 指出。 此外，俄罗斯单方面宣布将在5月8日实施72小时停火，但乌克兰方面并未回应，地缘局势缓和，为黄金 提供潜在支撑。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日关税公告公布后，鉴于 价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。 【黄金技术分析】 黄金周一下跌在3268.00之上受到支持，上涨在3353.00之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上 涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在3293.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向33 ...

| 黄金：风险偏好回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：寻底继续 | 6 | | 锌：区间整理 | 8 | | 铅：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势震荡 | 14 | | 多晶硅：消息面发酵，盘面亦偏弱 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：成本支撑趋弱，关注高基差下采买需求 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 黄金：风险偏好回升 白银：企稳反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z ...

A股近期有所反弹 4月28日，A股三大指数小幅下跌，沪指全天维持在3300点附近。4月以来，受特朗普政府所谓的"对等 关税"冲击，全球资本市场出现大幅波动，A股也被牵连。 不过，在中国多部门密集部署、推出多种举 措之后，A股有所反弹。 如何看待A股近期的走势？市场风险偏好是否正在边际性改善？东吴期货首席投资官吴照银为我们带来 他的解读。 0:00 南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 广州报道 A股"成绩单"表现亮眼 4月底，2025年一季报披露临近尾声，A股市场上市公司交出了一份较为亮眼的成绩单。截至4月27日， 超过2700家上市公司发布了2025年一季报，已发布一季报的公司中，约四成实现了营收和归母净利润的 双增长，约六成企业实现净利润同比增长，百余家公司增幅超100%。其中，基础化工、电力设备、有 色金属等板块表现突出。 市场风险偏好在稳步改善 吴照银：在过去的三周里，A股市场和全球资本市场的局势都有所缓和。尽管关税战尚未达成最终协 议，市场的整体趋势仍然是朝着稳定的方向发展。我们可以看到市场已经开始慢慢回升，波动幅度逐渐 减小，整体运行状态趋于平稳。同时，市场的风险偏好也在稳步改善。 在这个时间点上，我们对市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined from record highs due to easing trade concerns, currently trading below $3300, with significant economic data expected to influence short-term direction [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, has seen a strong performance this year, rising nearly $700 and reaching historical highs multiple times. However, optimism regarding global trade relations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets, which is a primary psychological factor pressuring gold prices [4][6]. - If market risk appetite continues to improve and global trade relations further ease, alongside a strengthening dollar, gold prices may face greater downward pressure [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to effectively break below the $3265-$3260 range to confirm a larger downward correction. If this level is breached, prices could quickly drop towards the $3225 50% retracement level, potentially targeting the $3200 mark. A drop below $3200 would suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term [4][6]. - The $3260 level has become a focal point for the market, and investors should closely monitor whether gold can touch or break this level. A significant breach would reinforce a bearish trend and could lead to deeper adjustments [6][7]. Trading Strategy - A conservative approach suggests waiting for a rebound near $3300 to enter short positions, targeting a break below $3260 to aim for $3230. More aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around the current price of $3287, with plans to add to positions on any rebounds [7][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 本期投资提示： 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250419-20250426）特朗普多次发言表明希望缓和与中国的贸易关系。对于市场而言，关税不确定性最大的阶段基本 已经过去，市场风险偏好企稳反弹。叠加美股多支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。1）利率方面， 美十年国债收益率下13 BPs来到4.29%，美元指数上行到99.6。 2）权益方面， 关税不确定性降温提升市场风险偏好。此外，美国重要科技股业绩 亮眼，如谷歌云业务利润21.8亿美元，大幅高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元，此外公布了700亿美元的股票回购计划。本周纳斯达克反弹明显。具体 地，标普500(4.59%)＞发达市场(4.10%)>日经225(2.81%)>新兴市场(2.67%)>沪深300(0.38%)。 3）商品方面， 黄金冲高回落，整体下跌0.33%，布伦 特原油价格下跌2.98%。 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 关税担忧边际降温，全球市场情绪修复明显 全球资金层面：美国固收类基金持续流出，发达欧洲股市资金大幅流入。全球资金层面：1)国家与地区层 ...

四月市场就这么在跌宕起伏中行将结束，过去的一个月市场极不平静。在特朗普关税大棒的挥舞下，市场一会儿上蹿下跳，一会儿死气沉沉，搞得人心惶 惶。这时候，市场参与者就会反复听到一个叫"VIX"的东西，什么"恐慌指数"，什么"市场情绪风向标"……听着挺唬人，对吧？ 关于VIX,官方说法是啥？ 一句话：芝加哥期权交易所搞出来的，衡量标普500未来30天波动预期。说白了，就是一群玩期权的大佬们，用真金白银在赌未来一个月美股会不会"地 震"。要是大家觉得要出事儿，抢着买保险（期权），VIX就"噌"一下上去了；要是觉得太平无事，歌舞升平，VIX就趴着不动。 听起来是不是挺有道理？教科书上都这么写。但！是！ 如果你就信了这些，那你就太天真了！图样图森破！这玩意儿，要是真这么简单，那满大街不都是 股神了？ 那么VIX背后，到底藏着什么猫腻，跟咱们搞外汇黄金的有啥毛线关系呢？ 你想想，谁最关心这"恐慌"？是华尔街那帮玩钱的精英，还是坐在华盛顿指挥全球的"老美"？没错，都是他们！ 这VIX指数，表面看是标普500的波动预期，但你得往深了想！ 标普500是啥？美国经济的脸面！是全球资本的风向标！这脸面要是看起来要"花"了，要"挨 揍" ...