花旗分析师表示，他们预计会议纪要将暗示"利率轨迹将取决于6月、7月和8月公布的数据"，这与美联 储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上的说法一致。鲍威尔为美联储在9月会议上可能降息奠定了基础，前提是 关税导致的物价上涨没有显示出导致持续通胀的迹象，而且经济继续创造足够的就业机会，以防止失业 率上升过快。花旗分析师表示："'观望'期可能会在夏末结束。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that concerns over inflation due to President Trump's tariff policies have largely dissipated, with consumer inflation expectations remaining stable at 3% for the next year, consistent with pre-Trump levels [1][2] - The monthly Consumer Expectations Survey from the New York Federal Reserve shows a decline in inflation expectations from a peak of 3.6% in March and April to 3% in the latest survey, reflecting a significant drop [1] - Despite the overall stability in inflation expectations, consumers anticipate specific cost increases, such as a 4.2% rise in gasoline prices and a 9.3% increase in medical costs, the highest since June 2023 [2] Group 2 - The survey indicates a positive outlook on employment, with a 1.1 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of rising unemployment over the next year, and the proportion of respondents worried about job loss has fallen to 14%, the lowest since December of the previous year [2] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a 3% expectation for the next three years and 2.6% for the next five years, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, both of which are bearish for gold [1] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of high inflation and that the labor market remains healthy without signs of early deterioration, reinforcing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July [3] - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining rates rose to 94.8%, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding future rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The unexpected strong performance of the non-farm report has shattered hopes for a July rate cut, pushing expectations for rate cuts to September instead, with the total expected cuts for the year revised down from three to two [4] - Despite the positive non-farm data, the average employment in the first half of the year is significantly lower than last year's average, suggesting a slowdown in the overall labor market [4] - Technically, gold is in a bullish trend after a period of adjustment, with support levels at $3,200 and $3,250, and resistance at $3,450, indicating potential for a breakout above $3,500 [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. labor market, economic policies under the Trump administration, and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" on the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Risks**: The decline in labor participation rates, particularly among youth and older populations, indicates potential risks in the labor market despite a decrease in unemployment rates. The unemployment rate may rise in the future, with projections suggesting it could reach 4.4%-4.5% by the end of the year, exceeding the natural unemployment rate level [1][6][10]. - **Non-Farm Payroll Adjustments**: Significant downward revisions are expected for the non-farm employment data for Q1 2025, with monthly adjustments potentially reaching 70,000 to 80,000 jobs. This aligns with a slowdown in private non-farm income due to reduced working hours and declining wages [3][4]. - **Impact of Government Policies**: The Trump administration's immigration restrictions have temporarily lowered unemployment rates but may hinder long-term demand and GDP growth. The tax cuts have stimulated short-term demand, but the overall impact on employment growth remains uncertain [9][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of two cuts within the year, influenced by the current labor market conditions and fiscal policies [10][20]. - **Economic Implications of the "Great Beautiful Act"**: The act, signed on Independence Day, is expected to have short-term economic effects, but its long-term impact requires further analysis, particularly on various sectors such as services and manufacturing [7][8]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Debt and Deficit Projections**: The new fiscal legislation is projected to expand the deficit to approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, with a potential debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 130% by 2033, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11][13][15]. - **Sector Performance in A-Share Market**: The A-share market shows strong sentiment, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, insurance, and consumer goods, which are expected to perform well due to supportive earnings and favorable valuations [21][22]. - **Macroeconomic Policy Directions in China**: Future macroeconomic policies in China will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation, which are crucial for overall economic stability [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Long-term investment potential is identified in sectors such as energy, basic chemicals, and consumer electronics, with a focus on areas that exhibit strong earnings support and favorable valuations [24][25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a robust job market, but there are mixed signals regarding employment strength and potential economic implications [1][3][14]. Group 1: Non-Farm Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the forecast of 106,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding expectations [1][14]. - Job growth was concentrated in four sectors: government (+73,000), education and healthcare services (+51,000), leisure and hospitality (+20,000), and construction (+15,000) [1][16]. - The employment diffusion index fell to 49.6%, indicating a low breadth of job growth compared to historical averages [14]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, with a decline in the labor force participation rate from 62.4% to 62.3% [2][20]. - Youth and female labor force participation saw significant declines, contributing to the drop in the unemployment rate [20][21]. Group 3: Wage Growth - Wage growth was below expectations, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.2% month-over-month, compared to the expected 0.3% [2][26]. - Weekly hours worked decreased from 34.3 to 34.2, leading to a 0.1% decline in weekly earnings, marking the first negative growth this year [2][26]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished significantly, with July cut probabilities dropping from 25.3% to 4.7% and September from 91% to 70.7% [2][28]. - U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 0.83%, while the dollar index increased by 0.35% [2][28].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3%[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, contributing to the decline in the unemployment rate[3] Employment Sector Performance - Government employment was the primary driver of the high job growth in June, adding 73,000 jobs compared to the previous month's 7,000[4] - Private sector job growth remained weak, with manufacturing jobs decreasing by 7,000 and wholesale trade jobs declining by 6,600[4] - The service sector added 68,000 jobs, but this was a slowdown from previous months[4] Structural Risks - The decrease in the labor force participation rate indicates underlying structural weaknesses in the labor market, despite the positive employment figures[5] - The rising number of unemployed individuals, despite a falling unemployment rate, suggests potential future challenges for the job market[5] - Immigration policies may lead to a continued decline in labor supply, potentially increasing unemployment rates without a corresponding rise in the unemployment rate[5] Market Implications - The strong employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year, with markets now betting on no rate cut in July and one cut each in September and December[5] - However, the long-term outlook for rate cuts has decreased significantly, reflecting increased risks to the U.S. economy[5] - The ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs may complicate the fulfillment of market expectations for rate cuts[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 7 月 4 日 全球宏观 劳动力参与率三连降推动失业率意外放缓。6 月新增就业呈现出明显的结构性 特征：政府裁员、人工智能发展驱使科技行业主动裁员，压缩了对行政类和高 技能劳动者的需求。另一方面，特朗普政府收紧移民政策削弱了低技能劳动力 供给，使得部分服务型、劳动密集型行业面临人手短缺。新增移民锐减趋势 下，劳动力供给的减少意味着失业率分母基数的下降，也解释了为何在新增就 业放缓的背景下，失业率仍能从 4.2%回落至 4.1%，主要是由于劳动参与率 （由 4 月的 62.6%放缓至 6 月的 62.3%）下降而非就业需求的实质性改善。 后市观察：当前的经济数据格局为美联储维持观望立场提供了充分支撑。尽管 特朗普持续施压要求降息，并尽早提名新的美联储主席，且美联储主席鲍威尔 本周虽然表示 7 月降息选项"未排除"，但这更多是一种策略性表态，而非政 策立场的实质性转变。从技术层面看，领先指标的初请失业金人数仍维持在相 对较低位置，劳动力市场韧性依然存在。美联储当前的核心关切仍是防范通胀 风险，特别是关税政策可能带来的夏季价格上涨压力。在经济基本面尚能承 受、劳动力市场保持相对 ...

Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]