Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

隔夜美联储决定继续按兵不动后，鲍威尔再一次遭到特朗普炮轰。 当地时间周四，特朗普在旗下Truth Social平台上发帖称： "太迟先生"鲍威尔是个傻瓜，什么都不懂。 除此之外，我非常喜欢他！石油和能源价格大幅下降，几乎所有成本（杂货和鸡蛋）都在下降，几乎没有通胀，关税资金涌入美国—— 这与"太迟先生"（的论调）完全相反！享受吧！ 鲍威尔承认通胀和失业率都可能恶化，但他坚称他的团队仍在等待更多数据后再采取行动。 安联投资管理公司高级策略师Charlie Ripley表示： 隔夜鲍威尔承认通胀和失业率都可能恶化，但他坚称美联储仍在等待更多数据后再采取行动。 耐心是一种美德，与其他市场参与者相比，美联储似乎拥有充足的耐心，因此在我们看到经济进一步走弱的迹象之前，美联储将继续保 持观望态度。 值得一提的是，美联储不降息，惹恼了特朗普，近期其多次公开点名批评鲍威尔。本月早些时候，特朗普一天三遍点名炮轰，敦促美联 储尽快降息，甚至放狠话"鲍威尔早该被解雇"。一周前，特朗普再度炮轰美联储，暗指鲍威尔是"表现不佳的美联储人士"。 但问题在于，当数据出现转变时，美联储可能已经陷入落后状态。此外，在这种情况下什么都不做实际上也 ...

Mhmarkets迈汇：美元在美联储暗示无降息急迫性后保持强势 Mhmarkets迈汇表示，美元在周四对欧元保持稳定，此前美联储在周三发出警告称，高通胀和失业率上升对经济构成风 险，市场对美元的信心因此得到支撑。此外，华盛顿和北京之间的贸易紧张局势有望缓解，投资者正密切关注计划于周六 在瑞士举行的会议。 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，美联储在周三的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。然而，美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，目前尚不清楚经济是否会继续稳定增长，还是会因贸易不确定性增加和通胀可能飙升而放缓。鲍威尔 称："目前货币政策的适当反应并不明确，我们也不清楚应该采取什么行动。" Mhmarkets迈汇分析称，市场目前预计到今年年底将有三次降息，每次降息25个基点，下一次降息可能在7月或9月。然 而，鲍威尔的言论表明，美联储并不急于采取行动，而是希望等待更明确的经济数据来指导政策。 Mhmarkets迈汇引用澳大利亚联邦银行国际和可持续经济主管约瑟夫·卡普索的观点称："FOMC不想提前对美国经济的变化 做出反应，而是希望等待'硬'经济数据来指导其政策行动。"他还认为："我们预计鲍威尔主席和其他 ...

美元兑日元和欧元等主要货币周三保持小幅走强，此前美联储一如市场预期维持利率不变。美联储将指 标利率稳定在4.25%-4.50%的区间，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险已经加剧，美国经济前景仍不明 朗。美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势，日本市场在两天假期后重新开市。 美联储维持利率不变 美联储在周三的会议上维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.50%，称经济前景不确定性进一步增加， 委员会判断失业率和通胀上升的风险已经加剧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上表示，在经济 走向明朗之前，美联储不能做出先发制人的政策决定。 欧元兑美元 美元兑主要货币的表现 美元兑日元 美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势。日本市场在两天假期后重新开市，投资 者对美元的需求增加，推动了美元兑日元的上涨。 美元兑瑞郎 美元兑瑞郎在震荡交投中上涨了0.09%，报0.82210瑞郎。周一，美元兑瑞郎触及2015年1月以来的最低 点0.8032。这一上涨反映了市场对美元的短期信心增强。 MultiBank大通金融分析美元周三小幅走强，主要得益于美联储维持利率不变的决定以及市场对经济前 ...

美联储政策利率自去年12月以来一直维持不变，决策者难以估计特朗普总统进口关税的影响，关税增加了今年通胀上升和经济增长放缓的可能性。根据决策 者3月公布的最新经济和政策预测，他们预计今年剩余时间指标利率将下调50个基点。美联储的决策公布后，美国股市延续涨势，标普500收盘上涨0.43%。 美国国债收益率下降，10年期美债收益率下跌0.7%至4.27%。而美元兑一篮子货币上涨0.64%，为4月23日以来最大单日涨幅，收报99.90附近。 本交易日需要关注英国央行利率决议、美国初请失业金人数变动、美国4月纽约联储1年通胀预期、美国4月纽约联储1年黄金涨幅预期。俄罗斯于当地时间5 月8日零时至5月11日零时实施停火，投资者也需要留意俄乌局势和中东局势的相关消息。 基本面： 周四（5月8日）亚欧时段，现货黄金遭遇重挫大幅下跌，盘中跌破隔夜低点后进一步扩大跌势，目前暂交投于3330美元附近仍未止跌。金价周三下跌近 2%，回落至3400关口下方，盘中最低曾触及3360.18美元/盎司，收报3364.32美元/盎司，对国际贸易谈判的乐观情绪打压黄金的避险买需，美联储如期维持 利率不变，但美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话比市场预期的鹰派 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the international gold price experienced a rise and subsequent decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, with a drop of 0.67% [1] - The gold price opened at $3366.36 per ounce, reached a high of $3414.29, and a low of $3319.82 during the trading session [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates unchanged, while highlighting the increasing risks of inflation and unemployment, which adds uncertainty to the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that current economic data has not fully reflected the impact of trade policies, with rising potential risks, particularly from Trump's tariff policies [3] - The gold price trend analysis showed that after the Fed's decision, the price fell from $3398 to $3363, aligning with previous market analysis [3] - The analysis suggests that the current trading range for gold is between $3200 and $3439, with a focus on whether the price can hold above the support level of $3292 [5]

Group 1 - Spot gold has slightly rebounded, currently trading around $3375.58 per ounce after a nearly 2% drop on Wednesday, falling below the $3400 mark [1] - The lowest price during the session was $3360.18 per ounce, with a closing price of $3364.32 per ounce, influenced by optimistic sentiments regarding international trade negotiations [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but Chairman Powell's remarks were more hawkish than market expectations, leading to the largest single-day increase in the dollar index in nearly two weeks, which pressured gold prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects increasing risks of rising inflation and unemployment, amid uncertainties regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies [3] - Powell indicated that the economic outlook remains unclear, with uncertainty surrounding the potential effects of Trump's policy agenda, which complicates the Fed's monetary policy response [3] - The FOMC unanimously agreed to maintain the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% [3] Group 3 - The market's initial reaction to the Fed's statement was muted, as there are concerns about rising inflation and unemployment risks, although there is still buying support for gold [4] - Official data shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in April, boosting bullish sentiment for gold [4] - Bank of America forecasts limited short-term upside for gold prices but expects them to rise again in the second half of 2025, potentially reaching $4000 [4]

当地时间7日，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是自1月和3 月会议以来，美联储再次决定维持利率不变。 美国财经媒体指出，在全球各大主要央行纷纷开启降息的时段，美联储却没有能力选择降息刺激经济增长。美国资管公司ICM Management统计了美联储主 席鲍威尔的发言全文，他在演讲中20次提到"关税"一词，11次说要"等等看"（wait and see），其中在演讲的前十分钟鲍威尔就已经6次提到"等等看"。 ▲美联储主席鲍威尔7日出席记者会 图据视觉中国/中新社记者 陈孟统 摄 此外有记者提到，特朗普多次催促美联储降息，鲍威尔回应称"这完全不会影响我们的工作。所以我们始终会做同样的事情，那就是利用我们的工具来促进 最大程度的就业和物价稳定，造福美国人民。我们始终只会考虑经济数据、经济前景、风险平衡，仅此而已，这就是我们要考虑的全部。" 鲍威尔还表示他从未要求与任何总统见面，他也证实他的工作日程安排上没有与特朗普相关的活动。 美联储面临两难抉择： 通胀和失业率先保哪一个 鲍威尔在演讲中强调，特朗普政府的政策不可预测性太强，其 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，法国外贸银行表示，此次美联储会议结果完全符合政策制定者的前期指引，因此并 未改变我们对美联储的预期：预计降息周期将于9月重启，并可能在连续多次会议上降息，直至终端利 率达到3%。我们对今年的基准预测是失业率将温和上升而非飙升，在此相对良性的情景下，美联储将 待通胀反复风险消除后才会放宽政策。但需警惕下行风险——若就业市场的潜在脆弱性爆发，美联储或 被迫在9月前降息，且幅度可能超出我们基准预测的25个基点。 法国外贸银行：仍预期美联储9月重启降息周期 终端利率料达到3% ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储议息会议按兵不动，汇丰银行同日宣布最优惠利率(P)维持不变，保留在目 前5.25%的水平。经络按揭转介首席副总裁曹德明表示，如果通胀持续回落或失业率上升，美国或于年 中后开始减息，香港银行会根据自身商业策略调整息率，跟随下调最优惠利率(P)，最优惠利率亦有机 会于年底前降至加息周期前的水平。 曹德明表示，虽然美国仍未减息，使香港银行未有调整最优惠利率。不过，近期受港股巿场火热以及大 型新股招股活动，巿场对港元需求显著增加，金管局自上周五以来四度入巿，香港银行体系总结余升至 1740亿港元水平。热钱涌入，一个月 HIBOR 亦即时显著回落，今日一个月 HIBOR 报2.09%，创自2022 年9月14日之后，即逾2年半的新低，即使香港银行未有调整最优惠利率，现时 HIBOR 已跌至2%水平， 供楼业主的利息开支已可即时减低，对楼市有正面支持作用。 美联储议息会议结束，宣布基准利率维持4.25%至4.5%区间，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，近期数据显示经 济活动稳健扩张，就业市场平稳，但经济前景和关税仍存在不确定性，对失业率和通胀上升的风险增 加，美联储将继续减持国债以及按揭抵押贷款证券，并致力 ...