Core Insights - The small-cap stocks continue to lead the market, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) experiencing a 722% increase in scale and approximately 32% returns year-to-date, making it a dual champion among broad-based ETFs [1][3] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has shown over 73% returns in the past year, with its scale and net value reaching historical highs throughout the year, demonstrating consistent and stable enhancement capabilities [3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by less than 1%, while the CSI 2000 has increased by 15%, highlighting a significant performance gap [5] - Historical data indicates that during market uptrends, small-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks having a median elasticity coefficient of 1.73 compared to 0.92 for large-cap stocks from 2010 to 2024 [5] Market Drivers - The strong performance of small-cap stocks this year is attributed to favorable market conditions, including significant rallies in February and April, and the recent performance of sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Continuous liquidity easing signals from the central bank have lowered market funding costs, making small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, which has been a crucial factor in their rise [5] Future Outlook - The future performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF will depend on two key indicators: the progress of mergers and acquisitions among small-cap companies and the earnings growth and recovery of small-cap indices in the upcoming semi-annual reports [6] - If these indicators are favorable, it could accelerate the small-cap stock market, potentially providing significant upside for the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]

流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the basic metals industry, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by macroeconomic factors in the U.S. and liquidity expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Events**: July 2025 is critical with key events such as the vote on the "Great America Act" on July 4, the expiration of EU tariff exemptions on July 9, and a potential Fed interest rate cut decision around July 30. These events will significantly impact commodity markets and liquidity expectations for the latter half of the year [2][4]. - **Fed's Rate Cut Signals**: Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated that positive changes in tariffs could trigger conditions for a rate cut, which is expected to support demand for basic metals and enhance anti-inflation capabilities [1][4]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The price difference between COMEX and LME copper has widened to $1,400/ton with a premium rate of 14.2%. This is driven by expectations of a potential copper tariff investigation and LME's restrictions on long positions, leading to a more optimistic COMEX market [5][6]. - **Domestic Copper Market**: The domestic copper market is experiencing weak forward prices, shifting from a Contango to a Backwardation structure, which may lead to cautious investor sentiment towards equity investments [6]. - **Aluminum Market Conditions**: The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels across social, exchange, and bonded zone stocks. Despite a slight accumulation during the off-season, demand remains strong, supporting stable aluminum prices [3][8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested investments include companies with relatively cheap valuations and good mid-term growth potential, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Jincheng Mining, as well as Chinese non-ferrous mining companies listed in Hong Kong [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Support for Metal Prices**: An increase in macroeconomic expectations, low spot inventories, and the upcoming earnings season are expected to support rising prices for basic metals [7]. - **Aluminum Industry Performance**: The aluminum sector in both Hong Kong and A-share markets has shown strong performance, with expectations for annual earnings to exceed 20 billion, driven by a combination of beta, alpha, and dividend investment trends [10]. - **Valuation of Aluminum Companies**: Current valuations for aluminum companies are around 7 times earnings, indicating reasonable valuation levels with high safety margins. Companies like Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu International are highlighted as having positive allocation value [11]. - **Trading Strategies for Basic Metals**: Short-term trading may focus on liquidity easing expectations, while fundamental trading should consider early positioning before the peak season to validate liquidity expectations and assess demand performance post-peak [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market has shown positive performance recently, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Dow Jones reaching its highest level since early March [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13, driven by expectations of liquidity easing following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point level on June 24, with a trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market signal [3] - Technical indicators such as RSI rising above 50, narrowing MACD bars, and KDJ golden cross suggest improving market sentiment [3] - However, significant selling pressure exists around the 3400-point mark, with historical failures to break through due to insufficient volume and trapped positions [3] Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of 6.304 billion yuan on June 24, with significant sell-offs in electronics, utilities, and home appliances, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage saw net inflows [4] - Main capital flows indicate net inflows in banking, industrial metals, and real estate development, while sectors like semiconductors and computer applications experienced net outflows, reflecting a shift in capital between high and low-performing sectors [4] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan on June 24, releasing liquidity into the market [4] - A joint initiative from six departments introduced a 500 billion yuan loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, which is expected to benefit related sectors in the long term [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in supporting technological innovation, potentially boosting confidence in the tech sector [4] Geopolitical Context - High-level trade talks between China and the US have resumed, which may help ease trade tensions [4] - The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is in effect, but ongoing conflicts warrant attention to geopolitical risks that could impact the market [4] Investment Strategy - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend on June 25, but attention is needed around the 3400-point resistance level [5] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on sectors supported by policy, such as consumption, technology, and elderly care, which have strong growth potential [5] - Short-term investors should monitor volume changes, with a sustained increase to 1.5 trillion yuan or more indicating potential for further market breakthroughs [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market remained in a slight oscillation. The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped from 1.675% last Friday to 1.6525%, a decrease of 2.25bp. Future focus should be on tariff policies and the possibility of the central bank restarting Treasury bond purchases. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%. If the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases, the short-term interest rates are more likely to decline [12][17]. - This week, affected by better - than - expected non - farm data, the US Treasury bond yield curve rebounded across the board. The Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The US Treasury bond yield may continue to oscillate at a high level, as the domestic game uncertainty in the US has increased [17]. - The final values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in May both expanded, increasing inflationary pressure. The growth of new non - farm employment slowed down but remained resilient, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in June, emphasizing a data - dependent stance. There is a low probability of an interest rate cut in June, but if economic data weakens, July - September may be the starting point for a 25bp interest rate cut [20][21][22]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - long Viewpoints - **Analysis of Bond Yields**: This week (2025.6.3 - 2025.6.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 2.25bp from 1.675% last Friday to 1.6525%. During the week, factors such as trade frictions, central bank policy expectations, and Sino - US phone calls affected the yield fluctuations. In the future, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%. If the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases, the short - term interest rates are more likely to decline [12][13][17]. - **Analysis of US Treasury Bond Yields**: Affected by better - than - expected non - farm data this week (0602 - 0606), the US Treasury bond yield curve rebounded across the board. The Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The US Treasury bond yield may continue to oscillate at a high level due to increased domestic game uncertainty in the US [17]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 2.1. Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the total net investment in the open market was - 6717 billion yuan [32]. - **Interest Rate Analysis**: The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes. For example, the yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and some national development bonds decreased [12][110]. 2.2. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **US Economic Data**: In May 2025, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, the final value of the service PMI was 53.7, and the final value of the composite PMI was 53. New non - farm employment in May increased by 139,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. The first - time unemployment claim in the week of May 31 increased to 247,000, and the continued unemployment claim in the week of May 24 slightly decreased to 1.904 million [20][21]. - **Commodity Price Data**: Steel prices declined, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices fluctuated, and the prices of commodities such as coal, oil, vegetables also showed certain trends [56][57]. 3. Weekly Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1. Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From June 2 to June 6, 2025, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 109.595 billion yuan, including 93.615 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 7.304 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 8.676 billion yuan of new general bonds. The repayment amount was 59.094 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 50.501 billion yuan [68]. - **Regional Distribution**: Six provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds this week. The top three in terms of issuance amount were Tianjin, Jilin, and Hunan, with issuance amounts of 43.428 billion yuan, 19.938 billion yuan, and 14.2 billion yuan respectively [73]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Two provinces and municipalities, Tianjin and Jilin, issued local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 27.701 billion yuan. From January 1 to this week, the national total issuance of such bonds was 1,656.813 billion yuan [74]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 2.465 billion yuan, with Hunan, Fujian, Chongqing, Anhui, and Heilongjiang leading in redemption scale in order [75]. 3.2. Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The current stock of local government bonds is 51.07 trillion yuan, the trading volume is 35.2324 billion yuan, and the turnover rate is 0.69%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Sichuan, Shandong, and Guangdong. The top three most - traded local government bond tenors are 10Y, 30Y, and 15Y [86]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [90]. 3.3. This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plans of local government bonds in Yunnan, Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning, Hunan, and Henan from June 9 to June 13 are given, but specific data are not detailed in the text [91]. 4. Weekly Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1. Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Overall Issuance**: This week, 240 credit bonds (including short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and PPNs) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 272.106 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 147.525 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 124.581 billion yuan, an increase of 76.681 billion yuan compared with last week [93]. - **Sub - category Issuance**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 9.85 billion yuan; industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 134.431 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bills had a net financing amount of 13.474 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 104.47 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 4.315 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 16.33 billion yuan, and PPNs had a net financing amount of - 5.378 billion yuan [96][97]. 4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds showed different changes. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.74bp, and that of medium - term notes decreased by 6.04bp [105]. 4.3. Secondary - Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 424.662 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [108]. 4.4. Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds decreased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with some decreasing and some fluctuating [110][111][112]. 4.5. Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, but there were also some narrowing situations [113][114][116]. 4.6. Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [122][125][127]. 4.7. Trading Activity The top five most - traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and this week, the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 245.829 billion yuan [133]. 4.8. Changes in Subject Ratings The subject ratings or outlooks of Xinjiang Zhongtai (Group) Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jing'an Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. were upgraded [136].