Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report - Date: July 4, 2024 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash market is facing an overall surplus situation, with supply and demand both declining and inventory accumulating. The long - term outlook is bearish, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to policy stimulus [8]. - The glass market is under pressure from increasing supply and high mid - stream inventory. Although the price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the follow - up implementation of industry production - limiting policies needs to be monitored [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **July 3 Trading Data**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 closed at 1,183 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with an increase of 177,559 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production dropped to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease. Capacity utilization fell to 81.32%, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease. Consumption decreased by 1.50% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 2.41% week - on - week to 1.8095 million tons [8]. - **Outlook**: The overall surplus pattern suppresses prices. Demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is declining. In the short term, there is a risk of correction, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is bearish [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **July 3 Trading Data**: The FG509 contract closed at 1,039 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.56%, with an increase of 22,323 lots in positions. The FG601 contract closed at 1,128 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a decrease of 4,438 lots in positions [7]. - **Supply**: Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line with a design capacity of 600 tons/day was restarted, increasing supply and inventory pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues [9]. - **Policy**: The market expects the government to introduce policies for capacity clearance and production limitation, leading to a price rebound. The implementation of these policies needs to be monitored [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][14][19].

【玻璃现货行情】 玻璃：沙河成交均价1100元/吨上下。 玻璃：周三相关政策扰动，市场对于玻璃有减产预期带动盘面大幅反弹。盘面情绪带动现货端大幅好 转，叠加月初授信，产销走强，基差结构激发了部分投机需求，关注持续性以及是否能形成正反馈。当 前处于夏季梅雨淡季，深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力，长远看最终行 业需要产能出清来解决过剩困境，因此还需等待更多冷修兑现或能带来盘面真正的反转。短期情绪带动 下盘面偏强，资金行为造成盘面波动巨大，建议暂观望。 【操作建议】 玻璃：短线观望 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供需】 截至2025年6月26日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，比19日+0.87%。本周（20250620-0626）全国 浮法玻璃产量109 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - **Supply**: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - **Demand**: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - **Price**: Opened low and closed down [5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - **Demand**: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - **Supply**: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - **Demand**: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - **Supply - Demand**: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - **Demand**: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - **Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - **Supply**: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - **Demand**: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - **Supply**: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - **Cost**: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Supply**: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - **Cost**: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - **Supply**: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - **Recommendation**: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of soda ash and glass have rebounded due to policy stimulus, but the supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals remain. The soda ash market is in an overall surplus situation, with supply declining, weak downstream demand, and further inventory accumulation. The long - term outlook is bearish. For glass, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, supply is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production - restriction policies [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review** - On July 2, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded significantly, closing at 1205 yuan/ton, up 3.07% or 36 yuan/ton, with a daily reduction of 180,882 lots. The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash production dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and the capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The consumption and inventory showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The market rebounded due to the policy expectation of capacity clearance and production restriction [7][8] - The overall surplus pattern of soda ash suppresses prices. The demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is still declining, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price correction, and take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [9] - **Glass Market Review** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the traditional rainy season, the terminal demand for glass is weakening. The supply of float glass has increased due to the restart of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line, leading to greater inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory in the industry is at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction is slow. The glass price rebounded due to policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][16]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle logic of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous pressure of oversupply. The supply may increase as the wet season approaches, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is mixed, and it is necessary to wait for the inventory to reach a healthy level [3]. - Polysilicon is in the logic of strong supply and weak demand. The photovoltaic rush has overdrafted some future demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the situation of the polysilicon industry [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.2%, a daily increase of 4.11%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 95.9% [2]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 445 yuan (5.73%); the trading volume is 1,643,648 lots, with a daily increase of 413,341 lots (33.60%); the open interest is 386,361 lots, with a daily increase of 25,285 lots (7.00%) [9]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when the product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short the futures (SI2509) with a hedging ratio of 30%, sell call options (70%), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there is a production plan and a risk of raw material price increase, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include limited short - term cost collapse space, low profit valuation, and increased probability of supply - side disturbances; downstream enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season will reduce production costs and increase profits, promoting production enthusiasm [6]. - Bearish factors include the approaching wet season leading to increased production capacity in Southwest China and the possible joint production cuts of downstream polysilicon enterprises, weakening demand [7]. Spot and Basis - The latest price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.76%); the basis of East China 553 is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-40.14%) [14]. - The latest price of East China 421 industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.7%); the basis of East China 421 is 740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-28.5%) [14]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots (-0.78%) [23]. Polysilicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the polysilicon futures main contract is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.74%, a daily increase of 8.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 83.73% [2]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 35,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan (7.19%); the trading volume is 411,586 lots, with a daily increase of 150,096 lots (57.40%); the open interest is 95,005 lots, with a daily increase of 33,809 lots (55.25%) [25]. Risk Management Strategies - Similar to industrial silicon, for inventory management, short the futures (PS2509) and use options strategies; for procurement management, buy long - term futures contracts and use options strategies [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include possible future production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry and the market's trading of the phenomenon of futures - end positions and warehouse receipts [6]. - Bearish factors include the failure of polysilicon enterprise integration and elimination, and the increase in production due to low raw material prices and the approaching wet season [7]. Spot and Basis - The price of polysilicon spot has increased. For example, the price of re - feeding material is 32.5 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1 yuan (3.17%) [31]. - The basis of the polysilicon futures main contract is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan (-26.92%) [31]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 2,600 lots, a decrease of 180 lots compared to the previous day [35]. Other Related Data - The silicon chain index is 0.3577, with a daily increase of 0.0279 (8.46%) [32].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-02 进行交易，拉升了硅价格，短期已经到了60日均线附近，观察能否顺利突破60日均线，操作上短期可以买 入看跌期权进行保护，同时继续跟随多头，但中长线依旧高空为主。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 壁荒漠地区光伏治沙规划印发，市场情绪开始好转，乐观情绪逐步增加。库存方面，多晶硅库存处于高位 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 状态。硅片企业前期采购的多晶硅尚未完全消化，导致库存积压，对市场价格形成明显压制。今日上涨主 免责声明 要源自光伏行业减产30%消息带动，光伏行业减产利空多晶硅，但是市场当做行业产能出清，需求见底来 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][6][10] Core Viewpoints - The hype about industrial silicon production cuts has cooled down, leading to a decline in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, as the smelting profit of industrial silicon recovers and the scale of production cuts shrinks, the prices of new energy metals have risen and then fallen. It is advisable to continue to bet on volatility with wide - straddle options. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [4][5] - For polysilicon, the price will show wide - range oscillations. The short - term supply is low, but the demand may weaken in the second half of the year [8][9] - For lithium carbonate, the price will maintain oscillations. The supply is in excess, but the short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price [10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - As of July 2, the spot price has slightly increased. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, with a 0.2% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the monthly production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in May was 55,652 tons, an 8.0% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month increase and a 388.0% year - on - year increase [4] - If the production cut scope expands in July, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand is weak, and the inventory may re - accumulate. The silicon price has fallen after rising, and manufacturers can consider hedging by selling at high prices. The future silicon price will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30% year - on - year, while the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. From January to May, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - The supply news is volatile, and the production is currently low. With the arrival of the wet season, the production in the southwest may increase. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The price will show wide - range oscillations [7][8][9] Lithium Carbonate - On July 1, the closing price of the main contract increased by 0.84% to 62,780 yuan. The total position decreased by 4,592 lots. The spot price remained unchanged. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its production line, with a 6 - month shutdown. [9] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to be good in July despite it being a traditional off - season. The social inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. The price will maintain oscillations [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, without policy disturbances, it is expected to go through a long - term capacity clearance cycle, and selling hedges on rallies are recommended. The market is currently affected by factors such as high inventory levels and potential restarts of production, with a weak fundamental outlook [2]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak due to reduced consumption, lower silicon wafer production schedules, high inventory pressure, and short - term supply increases. However, policy disturbances from the photovoltaic industry are significant, and the market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2509 opened at 8000 yuan/ton and closed at 7765 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton (- 4.31%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 361076 lots, and on July 2, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 52137 lots, a change of - 336 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly. The prices of some regions like Xinjiang and the Northwest rose, while individual prices in Kunming and Tianjin decreased. Prices in Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic monomer enterprise operating rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It is expected that the domestic DMC production schedule in July will increase by about 10,000 tons, leading to more consumption of industrial silicon [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 fluctuated. It opened at 33470 yuan/ton and closed at 32700 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.39% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 61196 lots (66333 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 261490 lots [3]. - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 3.67% to 23600 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 4.10% to 13.44GW [3][4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: In June, the domestic silicon wafer production was about 58GW, and the production schedule in July decreased by about 10% due to weak demand and tightened battery supply [4]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of N - type 182mm and N - type 210mm components [4]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Focus on range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedges on rallies [2]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [2]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [2]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [2]. - **Options**: Not recommended [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [5]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [5]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [5]. - **Options**: Not recommended [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the stock market is warm, and the sentiment in the bond market has stabilized. For stock index futures, policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. For stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. New hot themes are emerging, with the Hengke Innovation Pharmaceutical Index excluding CXO companies and photovoltaic glass promoting production cuts, accelerating capacity clearance and driving up the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous industries. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes anti - "involution" in some manufacturing industries, which may boost the inflation chain. In the context of mid - year report announcements, attention to pre - announced performance increases may be strengthened. In a warm - sentiment environment, long positions should be maintained, and IM long positions are recommended [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias [5]. Stock Index Options - **View**: A covered defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume in the options market has been continuously declining, and the trading liquidity is lower than expected. In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators show synchronicity rather than guidance, and the average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.52%. Given the low liquidity and volatility and the ineffective guidance of sentiment indicators, and the resistance level above the index, a covered defense strategy is advisable [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered defense [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has stabilized. After recent adjustments, the bond market sentiment stabilized yesterday. The central bank continued net capital injection, with a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The overall funding situation has eased, and the DR007 rate has slightly declined. The policy announced by the National Development and Reform Commission was in line with expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The market may be pre - gambling on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. However, caution should still be exercised, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [2][5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillating. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to basis widening. Curve strategy: Steepening the yield curve in the medium - term has higher odds [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5][6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous and predicted values of 52. The US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June are yet to be announced [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: From January to May, the added value of large - scale electronic information manufacturing enterprises increased by 11.1% year - on - year, 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall industry and high - tech manufacturing respectively. In May, the added value increased by 10.2% year - on - year. Mobile phone production was 570 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%, with smartphone production at 450 million units, a 2.1% decrease. Microcomputer equipment production was 130 million units, a 5.5% increase, and integrated circuit production was 193.5 billion pieces, a 6.8% increase [7]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high - quality development of innovative drugs, including supporting the use of healthcare insurance data for innovative drug R & D, strengthening information sharing among medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, and providing necessary healthcare insurance data services for innovative drug R & D on the premise of data security and compliance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The collective production cut of 30% by the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers is expected to help stabilize and recover glass prices, which have been under pressure due to oversupply and declining demand [1][3]. Industry Summary - On June 29, the decision for a 30% production cut was announced to address market supply-demand imbalances [3]. - Starting in July, major photovoltaic glass companies plan to implement this production cut, with expectations of a rapid decline in domestic supply, improving the supply-demand situation [3]. - The production cut is seen as a necessary measure to digest inventory and adjust production according to sales [7]. - In June, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity increased, but demand weakened, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [8]. - As of June 30, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18.5 yuan/m², down 5.13% from the previous week, indicating significant price pressure [9]. Company Responses - Fuyao Glass reported that its glass furnaces are operating normally and have not ceased production [4]. - Qibin Group stated that it has not received any notifications regarding furnace shutdowns and is currently operating normally [5]. - Anhuai High-Tech mentioned that it has not issued any formal production cut notices and is currently operating at full capacity, although it anticipates a contraction in market demand in the second half of the year [6]. - Yamaton confirmed the validity of the production cut news, stating that it will facilitate sustainable development in the industry [6]. - Sanxia New Materials plans to halt production for maintenance on one of its glass production lines [7].