智通财经记者 | 陈靖 岁末将至，2025年全球资本市场的画卷即将收官。在国内经济修复、海外流动性预期转向及AI产业浪潮的多重驱动 下，A股、港股、美股走出差异化行情。 2025年的全球股市呈现"科技引领、区域分化"的鲜明特征。美股在AI产业叙事与头部企业盈利支撑下延续强势，港股依 托流动性改善实现大幅反弹，A股则在结构性行情中完成估值修复。 综合多家头部券商近期发布2026年A股投资策略来看， A股市场正处于企业全球化转型与资本市场成熟化的关键阶段， 盈利修复成为共识性预期，市场风格或向均衡切换，流动性结构优化与产业趋势演进则勾勒出清晰的配置线索。 2026年"春季躁动"引期待 2025年A股市场的"春季躁动"行情颇具辨识度，成为全年结构性行情的重要预热。今年1月初市场快速下探后，上证指 数、深证成指自1月中旬起开启震荡上行态势并持续2个月，创业板指亦实现逾1个月的反弹，为全年市场修复奠定基 础。 随着2025年年末临近，2026年A股"春季躁动"行情是否会重现、甚至提前启动，成为市场关注的焦点。对此，多家券商 持相对积极态度，认为市场"学习效应"深化叠加2026年春节相对较晚，资金"抢跑"现象或推动行情前 ...

盘前要闻 1、政治局会议分析研究明年经济工作，消费或成突破方向 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，继续实施更加积极的财政政 策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。申 万宏源表示，政策仍将内需置于核心，消费或成突破方向。 12月8日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。在中美经贸关系的问题上，郭嘉昆表示，中美经贸关 系的本质是互利共赢，不存在谁占谁的便宜。经贸合作应该继续成为中美关系的"压舱石"和"推进器"。 希望美方同中方一道落实好两国元首重要共识，不断压缩问题清单，拉长合作清单，争取更多积极进 展。 4、沐曦股份打新中签率低于摩尔线程 1.93万个号码中签 类型：公司 情绪影响：中性 2、谷歌官宣：首款搭载Gemini的AI眼镜将于2026年推出 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 谷歌最新宣布，公司正着手开发两种不同类别的人工智能眼镜，以在明年与Meta的产品展开竞争。谷 歌智能眼镜将搭载Gemini大模型，将于2026年上市。分析人士表示与安卓手机生态类似，新推出的操作 系统也将向其他科技厂商开放， ...

来源：冀星策略 报告摘要 ● 躁动的空间往往源于前期的调整，提前布局必要性上升 针对第一个问题，我们认为不单单是日历效应和行为金融学的解释，从政策周期/宏观节奏+产业运行规律+流动性季节性因素+机构调仓与预期博弈等多角 度看，躁动本身具备一定合理性。因此自2010年以来鲜有春季躁动缺席的年份，当前我们认为躁动仍是大概率事件。 第二个问题，我们认为从历史规律和市场行为的角度来看，春季躁动并不严格限定在"春季"这一自然时段内，其本质是一种由宏观预期、流动性改善、机 构行为模式与风险偏好周期共同驱动的阶段性风险偏好提升。因而其出现时间具有可前置性、可后移性，甚至会在跨年节点提前酝酿。而本轮恰逢两大因 素共同作用—11月的显著调整叠加春节较晚且估值牛市仍在途中，那么提前躁动的可能性相对较大，并非只能在春季发生。建议12月提前布局春季躁动。 ● 春季躁动的行业表现规律—科技or周期或许本轮不是二选一 整体来看，春季躁动并非市场的随机波动，而是具有结构性规律和预测价值。历史统计显示，成长型春季躁动在历次春季行情中占比近六成，是最具代表 性的春季行情类型，流动性宽松 + 科技政策预期的放大器为主要驱动力。而周期型春季躁动的 ...

Company News - Weidi Co., Ltd. plans to acquire control of Jiu Xing Precision by purchasing 51% of the shares from its current shareholders, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The acquisition will allow Weidi to gain at least 51% voting rights in Jiu Xing Precision, making it a subsidiary [6][7] - Jiu Xing Precision specializes in the research, production, and sales of precision metal components, primarily serving the mid-to-high-end home appliance sector. It is recognized as a "little giant" enterprise in the national specialized and innovative category [7] - Yili Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a distribution of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling 3.036 billion yuan, with the record date set for December 16, 2025 [8] - Suhao Fashion plans to conduct an asset swap with its controlling shareholder, involving the acquisition of a 54% stake in Jiangsu Suhao Zhongjia Fashion Co., Ltd. and the divestment of its 100% stake in Jiangsu Shuntian Chemical Storage Co., Ltd. [8] - China Shipbuilding announced a cooperation agreement for a new shipbuilding project involving 87 vessels, with a total value of approximately 50 billion yuan, primarily settled in cross-border RMB [8] - Tailong Pharmaceutical will change its controlling shareholder to Jiang Pharmaceutical Group, with the stock resuming trading on December 9 [8] - Ruixin Microelectronics reported a net profit of approximately 780 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan per share, totaling 126 million yuan [8] - China Metallurgical Group plans to sell its 100% stake in China Metallurgical Real Estate and related debts for approximately 60.7 billion yuan [9] - HeFu China reported significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of 336.83% from October 28 to December 8, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [9] Economic Indicators - According to the General Administration of Customs, China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, while imports were 16.75 trillion yuan, up 0.2%. In November alone, trade value was 3.9 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1% [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

结合当下拥挤度和过往春季躁动胜率（2月）来看，目前拥挤度不高甚至极低、 春季躁动中胜率不错的AI应用（软件、传媒）、机器 人、创新药、储能可能是12月择机布局的重要方向。 02 美国或发布机器人行政命令 01春季躁动前，关注哪些方向？ 国海证券认为，每年2月是常规春季躁动区间，整体胜率最高。结合当下市场环境看，今年春季躁动行情或提前"抢跑"： 整体日历效应前移以及12月下旬美国11月就业、价格数据开始密集发布后，降息预期可能更加清晰， 有可能会出现12月下旬到明年1 月出春季躁动前移、成长风格提前回归的情况。 哪些方向值得关注： 一方面可以按照日历效应继续持有白电和银行，另一方面如果成长风格再度回踩，可以为可能提前的春季躁动做好准备。 美国政府正考虑在明年发布一项关于机器人技术的行政命令。美国商务部发言人回应称："我们致力于推动机器人和先进制造业，因为 它们是让关键生产回流美国的核心。"据一位熟悉计划的人士透露，美国交通部也正准备成立一个机器人工作组，可能在年底前宣布。 除此以外，美国国会议员对机器人技术的兴趣也在上升，共和党人曾提出设立国家机器人委员会。 东方证券汽零团队认为，此次消息反映了美国对人形机器人 ...

Market Overview - On December 8, the market experienced a positive day with major indices showing upward movement, particularly the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices breaking through the 30-day resistance level [1][3] - The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a return to a bullish market environment, although there was a net outflow of 7.4 billion yuan, suggesting some caution among investors [3] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and cross-strait sectors showed the strongest performance, with Aerospace Development leading the commercial aerospace sector, attracting attention due to significant gains by notable investors [4] - Technology stocks, particularly new energy and optical communication companies, also gained traction, with stocks like Tianfu Communication reaching a record high with a 19.19% increase [4] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding a potential spring rally, driven by positive market data and the performance of technology stocks [4] - However, caution is advised as the sustainability of the technology stock rally remains to be seen, and investors are encouraged to remain vigilant [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a weak adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,765.36 points, down 319.72 points, a decline of 1.23% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,662.55 points, with a slight increase of 0.09 points [4] Company Performance - Excellence Education (HK02687) showed moderate performance in the morning, with gains kept within 30%, but surged after 3 PM, reaching a maximum increase of over 111%, ultimately closing up over 87% [5] - In contrast, the newly listed stock Naxin Micro (HK02676) opened flat but remained in a state of decline throughout the day, closing down 4.31% [7][8] Sector Insights - According to Frost & Sullivan, the top five companies in the Chinese higher education digitalization market hold a total market share of 12.9% as of 2024. Excellence Education ranks second in revenue with a market share of 4.0% in the overall digitalization market and first with a 7.3% market share in digital content production [7] - In the broader market, Baidu Group rose over 3%, Huahong Semiconductor increased over 4%, and SMIC gained over 2%. Conversely, Pop Mart fell over 8%, while Lao Pu Gold and Innovent Biologics dropped over 6%. Bank stocks collectively declined, with China Construction Bank down over 4% [10] Investment Outlook - Multiple institutions believe that the Hong Kong stock market is currently at a low valuation or in a positioning phase, with a positive outlook for 2026. Technology innovation, particularly in AI, and high-dividend assets are seen as promising investment themes [12] - There are differing opinions among institutions regarding market trends, with Huatai Securities suggesting an early "spring rally" for Hong Kong stocks, while Huaan Fund indicates a potential shift towards defensive dividend sectors as the year ends [13]

新华财经上海12月8日电 华泰证券发表最新A股策略观点认为，A股"春季躁动"可能提前启动。 转自：新华财经 华泰证券分析认为，上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升 共振下资金面环境有所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进 一步打开险资配置权益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价 链、资本品、大众消费品和基建链等线索。中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可 能提前启动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓 选择。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the potential for an early spring market rally, suggesting that historical patterns indicate such rallies often occur ahead of schedule during bull markets [3][4] - Analysts believe that the current market environment, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may catalyze an earlier-than-usual spring rally [4][5] - Growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as key areas for investment as the market anticipates a shift towards growth styles [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report indicates a continuous improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium battery industry, with production levels expected to stabilize around historical highs [10][11] - The solar energy sector is experiencing a decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, but supply-side reforms are expected to enhance market stability [6][7] - Wind energy projects are gaining momentum, with significant increases in domestic and international offshore wind turbine tenders, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [7][8] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing upward price pressure due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [16][17] - Domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is slightly increasing, but demand remains mixed, with some sectors showing signs of weakness as the market enters a seasonal slowdown [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates in the aluminum sector, as these factors will influence future pricing trends [18][19] Group 4: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is expected to see price increases in December, driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments, despite recent price declines [26][29] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the coal supply chain, including transportation issues and fluctuating demand from both power generation and industrial sectors [26][27] - Long-term trends suggest that coal prices may continue to rise due to structural factors such as rising operational costs and regulatory pressures [29][30] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the robotics sector, with the U.S. government accelerating initiatives to promote industry growth [31][32] - Tesla's developments in humanoid robots are highlighted, indicating a focus on cost-effective production and potential market applications [32][33] - Various robotics companies are securing substantial funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [34][35][37]