Core Viewpoint - The industrial software market is experiencing increased demand, driven by AI empowerment and the push for self-sufficiency, indicating promising future development and rich investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The National Index for Industrial Software reflects the price changes of listed companies in the industrial software sector [2]. - Industrial software is categorized into four main types: R&D design software, production control software, digital management software, and embedded software, each serving distinct functions in the industrial process [2]. - The industry is benefiting from multiple favorable factors, including government policies aiming to update approximately 2 million sets of industrial software by 2027, strong internal demand for refined management, and technological innovation driving the sector [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - Changes in the external environment are elevating the strategic importance of industrial software, as global manufacturing shifts towards high efficiency, flexibility, and customization [3]. - Domestic software is currently in a phase of breaking into high-end products, with embedded software showing potential advantages, although it still faces challenges in competing with foreign products [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three core investment logics are identified: the steady advancement of self-sufficiency in industrial software, the significant replacement potential for imported software, and the ongoing R&D and mergers and acquisitions driving product enhancement [4]. - AI is seen as a transformative force for domestic industrial software, potentially enabling leapfrog development and creating significant valuation premiums in the industry [4]. Group 4: AI Impact - AI models, such as DeepSeek, are accelerating industry development and lowering application barriers, facilitating rapid penetration of AI into industrial software [5]. - Companies are developing multi-layered AI product service systems, offering various AI models and tools, which present diverse investment opportunities [5]. Group 5: Market Characteristics - The National Industrial Software Index primarily consists of small and mid-cap stocks, with over 70% of stocks having a total market value below 50 billion [5]. - The index's largest sector is computers, while also covering machinery, power equipment, and communications, aligning with the technology growth characteristics of the sector [5].

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations as it approaches the end of 2025, with many funds that have accumulated gains this year adopting a defensive stance [1][2] - The fourth quarter is critical for annual performance, leading institutions to shift focus from generating excess returns to locking in existing profits and avoiding ranking volatility risks [1][7] Fund Performance and Strategy - Some actively managed equity funds, such as Yimin Service Leading, have reportedly reduced their positions to secure profits, evidenced by a minimal decline in net value despite market downturns [2][3] - Historical data shows that Yimin Service Leading has successfully adjusted its positions to avoid major losses, achieving over 30% returns this year with a maximum drawdown of approximately 6% [3][4] - The fund manager of Yimin Service Leading noted a potential increase in market volatility following a narrowing of trading volume after the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,800 points [3][5] Fund Size and Flexibility - The flexibility in adjusting positions is attributed to the relatively small size of the funds, with Yimin Service Leading having a scale of only 44 million yuan, allowing for quicker tactical shifts [4][5] - Smaller fund sizes enable managers to adapt more swiftly to market conditions, enhancing the investment experience for clients [4][5] New Fund Activity - In contrast to older funds reducing their positions, several newly established funds have actively engaged in the market, with 41 new active equity funds launched in November alone [7] - For instance, the newly launched Ping An New Energy Select Fund saw a 2% increase in net value shortly after its inception, although it has since experienced a decline of over 7% [7] - The market is expected to see continued valuation differentiation, with limited downside potential for indices, as noted by industry analysts [7][8]

从产业生命周期看，王萌表示，国产软件当前处于向高端产品突破的阶段。其中，嵌入式软件市场体量 较大，国产软件有一定优势，但多模仿海外产品，目前仍难与海外抗衡；经营管理类和生产控制类软件 须进一步发展以占据高端市场；研发设计类软件与海外差距还很明显，国产化程度低。 ◎记者 赵明超 进入四季度，市场有所调整，与此同时结构性行情持续演绎，站在当前时点看，有哪些投资机会值得关 注？博时基金指数与量化投资部基金经理王萌在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，工业软件市场需求增 加，在AI赋能带来新机遇的背景下，叠加自主可控的推进，行业发展后市可期，蕴含着丰富的投资机 会。 行业迎来多重利好 根据国证指数官网，国证工业软件主题指数反映沪深北交易所工业软件产业相关上市公司的证券价格变 化情况。 从具体产品类型看，王萌表示，工业软件分为研发设计类、生产控制类、数字化管理类、嵌入式软件四 大类：研发设计类软件是工业创新核心工具，主要服务于产品设计研发阶段，能让工程师在虚拟环境构 建产品模型，精确计算关键参数，实现精准设计与仿真；生产控制类软件主要是工业生产核心控制系 统，管控从物料投入到成品产出的全过程；数字化管理类软件是企业核心管理系 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI-PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controllable beneficiary industries [1][4][26]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI remains strong, with significant growth expected in ASICs driven by the explosive increase in token numbers from major players like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft [1][4][26]. - The report highlights the impressive performance of Google's Gemini 3, which supports a large context window and introduces innovative features like the Deep Think mode, enhancing AI capabilities [1]. - The North American cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to sustain high capital expenditures, with room for further increases, indicating a robust investment environment in the AI sector [1][4]. - The report suggests that the AI demand will lead to a strong recovery in the PCB market, with many AI-PCB companies experiencing full production and sales [26]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - Apple has launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AR glasses, which are expected to drive demand in the AI edge product market [5]. - The report anticipates a surge in AI-related product releases in late 2025 and 2026, benefiting from Apple's integrated hardware and software ecosystem [5]. 2. PCB - Despite a slight decline in shipments due to the October holiday, the PCB industry maintains a high growth rate year-on-year, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors [7]. - The report indicates that the PCB market is expected to remain robust, with price increases for raw materials like copper-clad laminates [7]. 3. Components - The AI data center's demand is expected to boost passive components, with increased usage of MLCCs and inductors in AI mobile devices [18]. - The LCD panel prices have stabilized, and production control measures are in place to maintain market balance [18]. 4. IC Design - The report is optimistic about the memory sector, predicting a price increase for DRAM due to rising demand from cloud service providers [20][22]. - The overall trend in the semiconductor industry is upward, with increased capital expenditures and demand for enterprise-level storage solutions [22]. 5. Semiconductor Manufacturing - The report notes a shift towards self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain due to export controls, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their production capabilities [23]. - The advanced packaging sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [23][24]. 6. Specific Companies - Companies like 三环集团 (SanHuan Group) and 兆易创新 (GigaDevice) are noted for their strong financial performance and growth prospects in the AI and semiconductor sectors [30][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like 北方华创 (North China Innovation) and 中微公司 (SMIC) in advancing semiconductor equipment technology and production capabilities [31][34].

Group 1: Strategic Resource Accumulation - The article discusses the importance of national strategic resource accumulation, particularly in uncertain global conditions, to ensure wealth security for the country and its citizens [1][8] - China has significantly increased its gold reserves, reportedly more than doubling them over the past decade, with unreported purchases potentially exceeding public data by over ten times [3][5] - The accumulation of gold serves as a financial safety net, especially during times of geopolitical instability and fluctuating trust in the US dollar [5][13] Group 2: Oil and Food Security - In the first ten months of the year, China imported 3.462 billion barrels of oil, accounting for 10% of global supply, which is more than Saudi Arabia's daily production [9][11] - China is constructing 11 new oil storage facilities, ensuring that the country can maintain normal operations for six months without imports, surpassing the international safety standard of three months [11] - The country has established standardized grain storage facilities with a total capacity exceeding 730 million tons, sufficient to feed over 1.4 billion people for more than two years [13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the need for individuals to align their investment strategies with national resource accumulation, focusing on stability and gradual growth [13][21] - Two investment categories are highlighted: high-dividend assets, which provide stable cash flow and lower risk, and technology stocks, particularly those aligned with national strategic plans [15][17] - The importance of a diversified investment approach is stressed, advising against concentrating all investments in one sector to mitigate risks [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in overseas natural gas prices and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, while methionine prices have decreased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [1][12][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of November 24-30, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 29 saw price increases, 33 saw decreases, and 38 remained stable. Overall, 51% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 37% saw a decrease [8][31]. - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 170,000 CNY/ton, marking a 1.80% increase from the previous week and a 65.85% increase from the previous month [33]. - Methionine prices fell to 18.60 CNY/kg, down 3.13% from the previous week and 9.27% from the previous month [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply, and companies in electronic materials and new energy materials that are experiencing price increases. It also suggests a long-term investment strategy based on policy support for demand recovery and supply-side optimization [12][31]. - Specific companies recommended include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on sectors like fluorochemicals, agricultural chemicals, and new energy materials [12][31]. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 2.98%, while the oil and petrochemical sector fell by 0.73% during the same week [8][12]. - The report notes that the WTI crude oil price closed at $58.55/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.84%, and the Brent crude oil price closed at $63.20/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.02% [9][32]. Price Trends - The report details that sulfur, ammonium nitrate, and other products saw significant price increases, while methionine and epoxy propane experienced notable declines [31][35]. Key Stocks - December's "golden stocks" include Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology, reflecting strong performance and growth potential in their respective sectors [5][12].

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in China's role from being the "world's largest customer" to a "super developer," indicating a significant change in global trade dynamics [1][3][20] - European manufacturers are facing challenges as China increasingly focuses on self-sufficiency and domestic production, leading to a decline in imports from Europe [5][11][39] Group 1: Changes in Trade Dynamics - China is no longer a major importer of European high-end machinery, automobiles, and luxury goods, which has left European manufacturers searching for new opportunities [3][5] - The demand for traditional imports like soybeans and iron ore remains, but these do not significantly benefit European manufacturing [7][20] - The rise of local high-end brands in China poses a threat to European luxury brands, as Chinese consumers are increasingly favoring domestic options [9][39] Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strategy - China is investing heavily in high-end manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors, industrial software, and commercial aircraft, aiming for self-sufficiency [16][18][20] - The Chinese government views imports as temporary learning opportunities, with a focus on developing domestic capabilities to produce high-quality goods [18][20] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes manufacturing, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic production capabilities [13][20] Group 3: Impact on Europe - European economies, particularly Germany, are projected to face economic growth declines due to China's strong export capabilities, with estimates suggesting a 0.3 percentage point reduction in growth annually [24][28] - The article highlights the existential crisis faced by European manufacturers, who must either reform to enhance competitiveness or resort to protectionist measures [28][32] - The contradiction in European expectations for China to stimulate global demand while also limiting its exports creates a complex challenge for the region [35][39]

Group 1 - The overall direction of the A-share market is still in a bull market, but it may enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still considerable room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase under the government's guidance for a "slow bull" policy [1][3] - In November, major A-share indices generally declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with sectors like comprehensive, banking, and media leading in gains [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced fluctuations in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over AI bubbles. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 4.9% [2] Group 2 - In terms of investment strategy, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During the fluctuation phase, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer sectors [3] - For the Hong Kong market, a "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. The market's overall profitability remains strong, and despite recent gains, valuations are still relatively low, making long-term investment attractive [4][5] - Specific areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in technology, chip manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies with their own growth potential [5]

Market Performance - In November, A-shares experienced a general decline, with the ChiNext 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3% [7] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 4.9% as of November 26, 2025 [7] A-share Outlook - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. There is significant room for index growth compared to previous bull markets, but the focus may shift to the duration of the bull market rather than the magnitude of gains [8] - Short-term attention should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors should be monitored in the medium term [8] Hong Kong Stock Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December may lead to continued upward volatility in the Hong Kong stock market. The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with relatively low valuations despite recent increases [9] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as autonomous control, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies and high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in sectors like telecommunications and utilities [9]