Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization, particularly through technological innovation, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [6] - The State Council has announced the implementation of the "Rural Road Regulations," which will take effect on September 15, 2025, aimed at improving rural infrastructure [7] - The report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the level of protection and development capabilities for people with disabilities in China has significantly improved [10] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, performing better than market expectations [13] - In the first half of the year, new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in green loans and support for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises [17] - The report on the "2024 Water Conservation" indicates an increase in total water usage, while the water consumption per unit of GDP and industrial output has decreased, reflecting improved water-saving levels [20]

Domestic News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate development loans reached 13.81 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, with an increase of 292.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, but the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, with an increase of 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of 2025, non-bank sectors recorded a historical high in cross-border income and expenditure, totaling 7.6 trillion USD, with a net inflow of 127.3 billion USD [1][2] Consumer Market - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has shown significant results, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances [2] - Additionally, over 69 million consumers bought more than 7.4 million digital products, and 82,000 sales outlets conducted exchanges for electric bicycles, resulting in 9.056 million new purchases [2] Economic Indicators - By the end of June, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.071 billion, 245 million, and 300 million respectively, all showing steady year-on-year increases [2] - The total income of the three social insurance funds in the first half of the year was 4.53 trillion yuan, with total expenditures of 3.89 trillion yuan, resulting in a cumulative balance of 9.83 trillion yuan [2] International News - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projected that the recently enacted "big and beautiful" bill will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by 3.39 trillion USD from 2025 to 2034, slightly above previous estimates [4] - According to Morgan Stanley, the global economic annualized growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 2.4%, consistent with long-term trends despite various challenges [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan will lead to a direct government spending reduction of approximately $1.1 trillion over the next decade [1] - The plan is expected to decrease government revenue by about $4.5 trillion, resulting in an increase in the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion, slightly higher than previous forecasts [1] - By 2034, the legislation is anticipated to cause around 10 million Americans to lose their health insurance [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the tax and spending bill promoted by President Trump will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The legislation is expected to result in around 10 million Americans losing their health insurance [1] Summary by Categories Tax and Spending Provisions - The bill includes tax cuts, reductions in spending for health insurance and nutrition assistance programs, and increased military and border security spending [1] Impact on Fiscal Health - The projected increase in the fiscal deficit of $3.4 trillion indicates significant long-term financial implications for the U.S. economy [1] Social Implications - The loss of health insurance for approximately 10 million Americans raises concerns about the social safety net and access to healthcare [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of high interest rates persisting for a long time [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the recent tax and spending legislation, known as the "Big Beautiful" tax law, will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The European Union is preparing a response plan for a potential failure to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., which may include unprecedented use of "anti-coercion tools" [1] Group 2 - The European Commission is drafting a new law requiring large companies and car rental firms to fully transition to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, potentially affecting about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of approximately 6.4 million vehicles per year [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister stated that Europe’s energy prices are several times higher than other countries due to the EU's forced decoupling from Russian energy, suggesting that introducing more energy sources and building additional transport routes could address this issue [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds experienced the largest net buying spree in global industrial stocks in five years, with the weekly net inflow ranking as the second highest since records began in 2016 [2] Group 3 - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached all-time highs, up 0.14% and 0.38% respectively [3] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% at $3,410.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.02% at $39.24 per ounce [3] - International oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude oil down 0.41% at $65.78 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 0.36% at $69.03 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.64% to 97.83, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating, including the euro up 0.60% to 1.1696 and the British pound up 0.61% to 1.3492 [4]

Core Points - The "Big Beautiful" Act (OBBBA) is projected to increase the U.S. federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [1][2] - The act is expected to reduce federal revenue by $4.5 trillion and decrease spending by $1.1 trillion by 2034 [1] - The legislation is anticipated to result in approximately 10 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2034 [1] - The CBO's estimates indicate that the deficit increase surpasses previous predictions, and the analysis does not account for potential dynamic effects on economic growth or interest rates [1] Financial Implications - The act is expected to add $3.4 trillion to the already high U.S. government debt, which stands at $36.2 trillion [2] - The act includes a provision to raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and makes the tax cuts from 2017 permanent [3] - The Medicaid program is projected to face nearly $1 trillion in cuts over the next decade [3] Socioeconomic Impact - The act is controversial due to its potential to increase long-term debt and provide tax cuts primarily benefiting the wealthy and large corporations [3] - The CBO estimates that the act will exacerbate income inequality, with the poorest Americans losing about $1,600 annually while the wealthiest families could see an average income increase of $12,000 [3] - The act's cuts to healthcare and federal assistance are expected to negate any minor tax relief for many families [3] Inflation and Cost of Living - Rising tariffs are contributing to increased prices, which disproportionately affect low-income households [4] - Recent inflation data indicates that costs are rising, particularly impacting essential goods for low-income Americans [4]

在正常情况下，这应该会导致日本债券价格下跌以及收益率上升，因为投资者要求获得更高的回报。日 本债务超过8万亿美元，几乎相当于其经济规模的2.5倍。 尽管日本长期债券收益率一直在上升，但远未达到反映政府挥霍无度的水平。日本30年期债券的收益率 仅为3%。 日元疲软、低利率的遗留影响、日本重回通胀、庞大的国内储蓄以及日本央行政策等因素共同支撑了日 本政府债券收益率。分析人士预计，这种对债券的支持作用还将持续。 三菱日联金融集团高级货币分析师Michael Wan表示："随着一些提案的提出以及政治动态的变化，未来 可能会有更多人呼吁财政支持，包括消费税。" 但Wan和其他分析师指出，日本过去三年的经济增长以及摆脱通缩，是其债务负担可控且未来几年可能 下降的原因。 凯投宏观亚太区首席经济学家Marcel Thieliant在一份报告中称："日本的财政状况并没有很多人认为的 那么糟糕。"他表示，尽管日本的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比在所有主要经济体中是最高的，但净 债务水平要低得多。 三菱日联金融集团的Wan表示："与其他国家相比，日本是一个净债权国。因此，理论上来说，日本拥 有大量闲置资金，这些资金来自本土机构的 ...