Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]

韩国财政部：考虑到美国财政部长的日程安排，与美国的2+2贸易谈判取消。 ...

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US imposing a 15% tariff and Japan committing to invest $550 billion [1] - The agreement includes Japan's purchase of $8 billion worth of US goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, 100 Boeing aircraft, and additional defense equipment [1] - The deal serves as a template for other countries like the EU and South Korea, pressuring them to accelerate negotiations to achieve lower tariffs [1] Group 2 - Experts believe the US-Japan trade agreement sets a benchmark for tariffs below a prohibitive level, with a target of keeping tariffs under 20% [2] - The EU and South Korea are expected to intensify their negotiations, particularly in the automotive sector, with reports suggesting the US is close to a similar agreement with the EU [2][3] - Japan successfully negotiated a reduction in automotive export tariffs from 25% to 15%, indicating the flexibility of the Trump administration in trade negotiations [3] Group 3 - Historical precedents suggest that the Trump administration may be willing to negotiate on industry tariffs, as seen in past adjustments to steel and aluminum tariffs [3] - Despite the emphasis on "buying American" and investment commitments, analysts remain cautious about the actual economic impact of these promises [4] - Previous commitments have often been re-packaged plans with limited real economic effects, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of such agreements [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs imposed by President Trump on various countries and the ongoing negotiations with the EU and Japan. Group 1: US Tariff Policies - President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries [2] - The US is negotiating with the EU, offering lower tariffs if the EU opens its markets to American businesses [3] Group 2: EU Response to US Tariffs - The EU is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations, planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US goods if talks fail [5] - The EU's initial countermeasures will combine previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of US goods with an additional list covering €720 billion worth of goods, pending approval from EU member states [6] Group 3: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan are focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, with Japan agreeing to increase its import of US rice by 75% and purchase $8 billion worth of US goods [10] - Japan has committed to buying 100 Boeing aircraft as part of the trade agreement [11] - Trump stated that Japan will open its market to various sectors, including automobiles and agricultural products, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [14]

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔23日表示，如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判破裂，并且美国对欧盟商品征收 高关税，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。 新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）国际油价23日在隔夜市场下跌。当日早盘窄幅盘整，午后跌幅 显著收窄，收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌6美分，收于每桶65.25美元，跌幅为 0.09%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌8美分，收于每桶68.51美元，跌幅为0.12%。 新加坡原油分析机构Vanda Insights分析师Vandana Hari表示，虽然过去三个交易日油价下跌看起来已经 消退，但美国与日本达成贸易协议的消息预计不会给油价带来多大上涨动力。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2190万桶，环比增加50万桶；上周美国战略原油储 备规模为4.025亿桶，环比减少20万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1327.3万桶，环比下降10.2万桶。 美国石油学会在22日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降57.7万桶，汽油库存下 降120万桶，而蒸馏油库存则显著增加348 ...

新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）受投资者对贸易谈判前景乐观预期和权重科技股上涨推动，纽 约股市三大股指23日高开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后涨幅扩大，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨，标普 500指数和纳指收盘时均创下历史新高。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨507.85点，收于45010.29点，涨幅为1.14%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨49.29点，收于6358.91点，涨幅为0.78%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨127.33点， 收于21020.02点，涨幅为0.61%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块九涨二跌。医疗板块和工业板块分别以2.03%和1.75%的涨幅领涨， 公用事业板块和必需消费品板块分别下跌0.79%和0.07%。 摩根大通量化策略师Khuram Chaudhry带领的团队在23日表示，全球股市处于历史高点，但过去一个 月，全球上市公司盈利下调了14.3%，过去三个月的下调幅度为18.7%。 摩根大通分析师表示，今年下半年可能出现市场波动。 全美房地产经纪人协会当日上午发布的数据显示，美国6月份成屋销售年率为393万套，低于市场预期的 400万套和5月份向上修订后的4 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it is uncertain whether the EU can achieve a trade agreement similar to Japan's, emphasizing that Japan's success was due to its "innovative financing arrangement" [1] - Japan managed to reduce its tariffs from 25% to 15% through negotiations, which included a $550 billion fund for investment in the U.S. [1] - Bessent downplayed reports of the EU planning to impose a 30% retaliatory tariff on approximately €100 billion (about $117 billion) of U.S. goods, suggesting it is a negotiation strategy [1] Group 2 - Bessent mentioned that the EU's trade surplus with the U.S. means that any escalation in trade issues would have a more severe impact on the EU [2] - He indicated that there is no rush to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with potential candidates including current board members and regional Fed presidents [2] - Bessent confirmed that the process for selecting Powell's successor is underway, but emphasized that it will ultimately be President Trump's decision [2] Group 3 - Bessent expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, stating that an internal review of the Fed's activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [3] - He noted that the expansion of the Fed's functions is jeopardizing its monetary policy independence and suggested that an internal review could be a good starting point [3] - Regular meetings and ongoing communication between Bessent and the Federal Reserve Chairman are still taking place [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Core Points - The European Commission confirmed plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if trade negotiations fail and the U.S. imposes high tariffs on EU products [1] - The EU aims to merge its previous tariff list targeting €21 billion of U.S. goods with a new list covering €72 billion, creating a unified response plan [1] - The proposed tariffs will affect U.S. products such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, with rates matching those threatened by the U.S. against EU goods [1] - EU member states, including Germany, are increasingly supportive of strong countermeasures if negotiations with the U.S. do not succeed [1]