1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Governor Milan indicates about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026, and CME rate futures price in two rate cuts in June and September. The US labor market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims low but continuing claims rising. The dollar index rebounds, and metal prices adjust for two consecutive days. In China, January economic data is in a vacuum, and the A - share market is in a structural game phase [2]. - Precious metals face increased adjustment pressure due to regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3][4]. - Copper prices are under short - term pressure from long - position profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend. Supply disruptions in Chile and inventory changes are key factors [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment as funds flow out and inventory accumulates. Alumina and cast aluminum are also adjusting in line with the overall market [7][8][11]. - Zinc, lead, and tin prices are adjusting due to factors such as market caution before non - farm data, changes in environmental policies, and profit - taking by funds [12][14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices decline as the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations [17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, demand seasonality, and supply trends. Double - coking prices are influenced by production news and market sentiment [18][19][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices show different trends. Rapeseed meal drops significantly, and soybean meal returns to a volatile state, influenced by export data, weather, and trade relations [22][23]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range. Factors include Indonesia's bio - diesel policies, potential export tax hikes, and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - Overseas: Fed Governor Milan says current rates are above the neutral level and restrictive. There's about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026. Initial jobless claims are at a historical low, but continuing claims are rising. The dollar index rises to 98.9, and metal prices adjust for two days, with precious metals relatively resilient and oil prices rebounding. - Domestic: January economic data and policies have limited impact on the market. The A - share market is in a structural game, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 4083 points, and a structural differentiation among broad - based indices. The trading volume drops slightly to 2.83 trillion, and over 3730 stocks close higher [2]. Precious Metals - During Thursday's trading, precious metal prices are mixed. COMEX gold futures rise 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments put pressure on gold and silver prices. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing from January 8 - 14 will bring selling pressure on precious metals, especially silver, increasing short - term adjustment pressure [4]. Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper futures continue to decline, and LME copper adjusts to around $12,700. The domestic spot market is quiet, and the LME inventory drops to 141,000 tons while the COMEX inventory rises to 515,000 tons. The market expects about two rate cuts in 2026. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the plant's operation capacity is only 30% of normal. After reaching a high, copper prices are under short - term pressure from profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend [5][6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum futures close at 23,765 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. LME aluminum closes at $3088.5 per ton, up 0.16%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, and due to high prices and the off - season, terminal demand is suppressed. With the outflow of funds, the market is dominated by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment [7][8]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures close at 2863 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The spot - futures price difference is large, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The increase in futures prices may lead to more imports and delay domestic production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to adjust following the overall market [9][10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures close at 22,585 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and prices follow the trend of aluminum. With market enthusiasm cooling and long - position profit - taking, cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, Shanghai zinc futures continue to adjust. As zinc ingots arrive, market supply increases, but downstream consumption is poor in the off - season. The social inventory rises slightly. The market is cautious before the non - farm data, and zinc prices are expected to adjust in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, Shanghai lead futures decline. After the environmental control in Anhui is lifted, some recycled lead smelters resume production, but the supply increase is limited. The social inventory rises slightly but remains below 20,000 tons. With weak consumption in the off - season, lead prices are expected to be weak due to the outflow of funds [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, Shanghai tin futures adjust. Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is nervous, and some funds take profits. The fundamentals change little, with slow recovery of tin mines and uncertain production in major producing countries. Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon futures slightly rebound. The supply side shows a marginal contraction, and the demand side is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The anti - involution policy falls short of expectations, and industrial silicon prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures decline. The supply of five major steel products increases slightly, and the total inventory rises. The consumption of building materials drops significantly, and the market is expected to return to a volatile mode. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures adjust. The supply is abundant as overseas miners increase shipments at the year - end, and port inventories accumulate. Demand is weak with low blast furnace operating rates. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18][19][20]. Double - Coking - On Thursday, double - coking futures rise and then fall. Mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official notices of capacity reduction. With increased domestic coal production and high import inventories, and high inventory pressure in the downstream off - season, the price increase space is limited. Prices are mainly driven by short - term market sentiment [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal 05 contract closes down 0.32% at 2782 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 05 contract closes down 1.71% at 2358 yuan/ton. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to reach 2.4 million tons. The US soybean export sales decline. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations and good weather in South America, rapeseed meal drops, and soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil 05 contract closes up 1.13% at 8612 yuan/ton. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil biodiesel consumption increases by 7.6%, and it plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year. There are also plans to increase export taxes. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakens, and palm oil is expected to trade in a range [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in a narrow range. Currently, the economic expectation difference favors the RMB, the Sino-US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, with the weakening of the US dollar and the USD/RMB exchange rate falling below 7.0, the exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue, and the 6.95 level will be repeatedly tested [31][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - Price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [4] - The negative adjustment range of the counter - cyclical factor has significantly narrowed, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has widened [8] 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The central bank's key work in 2026 includes flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and continuing to optimize the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanism arrangements [27] 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro - Economy - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on December 31 was 872.8 billion (previous value: 801.5 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion, a decrease of 65.6 billion. The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [15] - The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the 11 - month CPI increase was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The economic expectation has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [17] - The Chinese economy has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between the fundamentals and sentiment has widened [21] 3.2.2 Core Charts - In the US, employment authority has declined, inflation in November supported subsequent interest rate cuts, and the economic expectation has been revised upwards [17] 3.2.3 Economic - In the US in December, imports, new orders, and inventory made negative contributions, while output and prices made positive contributions [18] 3.2.4 Macro - Economy (China) - China's manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, rising 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising to the expansion range for the first time since April, indicating an improvement in manufacturing production and operation activities. Production and demand have rebounded simultaneously, and domestic demand is stronger than external demand [26] 3.2.5 Overall View - The RMB exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue [31] 3.2.6 Macro - Economy (2026 Scenario Deduction) - Throughout 2026, there will be multiple important time points related to policy, inventory cycles, etc., including Fed meetings, government work reports, and US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economic and policy environment [34]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月8日｜晨星在2026年第一季度展望报告中指出，受合理的估值支撑，亚洲股市在2026年有望延 续涨势。分析师表示，尽管可能会出现偶尔的回调，但出现持续性调整的可能性似乎不大。全球对人工 智能的支出仍是科技行业盈利的核心驱动力，且AI受益股的估值普遍仍具吸引力。晨星预计美联储将 下调联邦基金利率，从而带动除日本以外的亚洲地区利率下降。日本则可能迎来渐进式的加息。报告补 充称，地缘政治局势仍是主要风险，市场可能会出现阵发性的波动。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 31 日，独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 0.69%至 91.6 万 吨，而钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.28%至 643.99 万吨，港口焦炭库存小降至 243.09 万 吨，焦炭综合库存微增 0.04 万吨至 978.68 万吨，同比增幅缩窄至 2.93%。 消息方面，7 号陕西省榆林市政府在相关会议上通报称，因 2024 一 2025 年 电煤保供落实不到位，核增产能的 52 处煤矿中，有 26 处煤矿被调出保供名单并 核减产能 1900 万吨。央行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。美联储理事米兰表示，美联储 2026 年需要降息超过一个百分点，并认为当前的货币政策正在限制经济增长。 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量略有回升、按需补库，对短期需求有所提振。宏观方面， 国内央行和美联储降息预期极大提振市场 ...

Market Overview - On January 7, U.S. stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 466 points, a decline of 0.94%, closing at 48,996.08 points [4] - The market initially showed optimism with a high opening but faced a sharp decline towards the end of the trading session, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from anticipation of interest rate cuts to concerns over tightening policies [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026, with officials indicating that the current policy is close to "neutral" and that the space for rate cuts is limited [4] - Key economic indicators, including a slower pace of inflation decline and a strong labor market, have contributed to the Fed's cautious stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [4] Chinese Assets Performance - In contrast to the U.S. market, Chinese assets showed strong performance on January 7, with several Chinese concept stocks experiencing significant gains, including a 70.83% increase in Zhongchi Chefu and a 28.53% rise in 3ENetwork Technology [5] - The Hong Kong ADR index also saw a positive trend, closing at 23,246 points, up 174.04 points, with major stocks like Tencent and HSBC contributing to the upward movement [5]

美元指数升至四周高位附近，徘徊于98.74。美元指数的走强给以美元计价的白银带来了压力。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于17.54一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报17.60元/克，上 涨1.52%，最高触及17.74元/克，最低下探17.34元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格在早盘触及到高点之后持续震荡，一小时布林带收缩，表明上涨力度减弱，开口 向下倾斜，警惕回调风险，DMI显示处于交界处，目前空头占据上风，纸白银走势下方关注17.00-17.30 支撑，上方关注17.50-18.00阻力。 美元的强势，一方面源于市场在关键数据发布前的仓位调整，另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场数据显示 出降温迹象(如职位空缺降幅超预期、ADP就业数据不及预期)，但ISM服务业活动的意外回升，又给市 场带来了不确定性，使得美元并未因降息预期而单边下跌。 此外，三菱日联银行的分析师在报告中指出，由于美联储的降息幅度可能超过目前的市场定价，美元今 年将面临进一步下跌。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，自4月以来，每月新增就业人数可能被高估了6万人。 分析师称， ...

Group 1: Core Insights on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is experiencing significant market attention, with a recent drop to 4.01%, and a notable increase in options trading volume betting on a further decline below 4% [1][3][5] - The yield's recent movements reflect a shift from an upward trend to a steady decline, influenced by economic data and geopolitical events [3][4] - The trading volume for the 10-year Treasury on January 8 reached $280 billion, with a notable increase in overseas investor participation, indicating rising demand for U.S. Treasuries [4][6] Group 2: Options Market Analysis - The options market shows a strong bet on the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4%, with significant trading volumes in call options [5][6] - The implied volatility of these options has risen to 12%, indicating increased market expectations for short-term yield fluctuations [6] - The probability of the yield falling below 4% by January 25 has increased to 65%, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and rising unemployment rates [6][12] Group 3: Yield Curve and Economic Outlook - The yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has narrowed, suggesting reduced recession fears [7][8] - This narrowing is attributed to expectations of future Fed rate cuts and stronger-than-expected GDP growth, which has slightly improved long-term economic growth forecasts [8][12] - The recent movements in the yield curve indicate a market reassessment of recession risks, potentially impacting Treasury trading strategies [7][8] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a critical factor influencing the 10-year Treasury yield, with recent comments from officials suggesting a cautious approach to future rate changes [9][10] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have shifted, with a 50% probability of one cut and a 30% probability of two cuts, reflecting a cooling of previous expectations [11][12] - Divergence in Fed officials' views on policy direction has led to cautious trading behavior in the Treasury market, resulting in narrower yield fluctuations [13] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of 10-year Treasuries is decreasing, with a planned issuance of $60 billion in January, down from $70 billion in December, alleviating supply pressure [16][17] - Demand for Treasuries is increasing, particularly from overseas investors, with significant increases in holdings from China and Japan [16][17] - The improved supply-demand dynamics are contributing to the downward pressure on yields, even amid policy uncertainties [16][17] Group 6: Asset Correlation Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield has shown a strong positive correlation with the U.S. dollar index, reflecting how interest rate expectations influence both markets [19] - Recent trends indicate that both the stock market and Treasury yields are moving in the same direction, driven by optimistic economic forecasts [18] - This correlation may shift if economic data diverges, potentially restoring the traditional inverse relationship between stocks and Treasuries [18]

瑞士作为传统避险经济体，瑞郎的避险属性在当前全球市场环境中得到凸显。近期全球地缘政治局势复 杂多变，中东冲突持续升级，欧洲经济复苏乏力，市场避险情绪有所升温，资金流向瑞郎等避险资产， 间接推动美元兑瑞郎下行。此外，瑞士银行业盈利能力改善，外汇储备规模稳定，进一步增强了瑞郎的 基本面支撑。 技术分析 从技术图形上来看，美元兑瑞郎日线级别呈现震荡下行趋势，当前汇价失守MA5均线支撑，短期空头 趋势占优。RSI指标当前读数为41，处于中性偏空区间，尚未进入超卖区域，下跌动能仍有延续空间； 小时级别MACD图显示绿色动能柱温和放大，死叉信号持续，短期回调压力未减。支撑位方面，关注 0.8720一线(近期震荡区间下沿)及0.8700整数关口，若下方失守则可能测试0.8680附近的38.2%斐波那契 回撤位；阻力位先看0.8760附近(MA10均线位置)，若上方突破则可能向0.8780一线发起冲击。 展望后市，美元兑瑞郎短期大概率维持震荡回落态势，后续需重点关注三大变量：一是美联储1月议息 会议政策指引，若释放更明确的宽松信号，可能加速美元回调；二是瑞士央行官员讲话及通胀数据，若 通胀持续低于目标，可能提前降息预期，削弱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that weak economic data in Germany has led to increased bets on interest rate cuts, overshadowing the impact of a surge in debt sales [1][4] - The benchmark 10-year German government bond is on track for its largest three-day gain since September, with yields near their lowest levels since December 5 [1] - The 30-year bond yield has dropped to 3.42%, down from a 14-year high reached last month [1] Group 2 - The issuance of 10-year German bonds on Wednesday saw a 1.29 times oversubscription, significantly lower than the previous issuance, while the sales amount nearly doubled to €4.5 billion (approximately $5.3 billion) [4] - The substantial increase in issuance this year may limit the upside potential for German bonds, particularly long-term ones, although current market trends indicate that concerns over economic weakness are prevailing [4] - Citigroup's economic surprise index for the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest point in over a month, suggesting that investors may have been overly optimistic about the region's economic growth [5] Group 3 - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described certain sectors of the economy as being in a "very critical" state, committing to revitalizing growth as the government's top priority this year [5] - Merz is attempting to reverse the economic downturn through a large long-term spending plan aimed at repairing infrastructure and modernizing the armed forces, with federal debt sales projected to increase by one-fifth to a record €512 billion by 2026 [6] - Market strategists suggest that the recent rebound in German bonds must be viewed in the context of softening inflation narratives in Germany and France, which have prompted some short positions to take profits after a rise in long-term German bond yields of over 25 basis points in the past two months [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend with both price and trading volume increasing, while the bond market sentiment is weak [1]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high with heavy trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in IC contracts before the Two Sessions [1]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume increased significantly, and there was an obvious phenomenon of rising price and volatility. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads [2]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend on Tuesday, rising 1.5% with heavy volume. Non - ferrous metals and non - bank finance led the gains, and the CSI 500 performed better among broad - based indices. The rally was driven by positive external sentiment, early entry of institutional funds, and the resonance between the commodity and stock markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in IC contracts [1][7]. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was 4.71 points, 0.04 points, 21.86 points, and 10.10 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 8.45 points, 2.38 points, 8.26 points, and 4.78 points. The spread between current - month and next - month contracts and the total positions also changed [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to rise significantly, and the trading volume of the options market reached 139.52 billion yuan, a 42.38% increase from the previous day. The game and chasing intensity at the options end increased significantly, with an obvious rise in the call trading volume ratio and an average increase of 2.05% in the implied volatility index. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads and turn to a wait - and - see attitude for short - selling strategies [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The T main contract showed a volatile trend throughout the day. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose, and the DR001 rate slightly rose to around 1.26%. The A - share market's continuous improvement affected the bond market sentiment. The central bank's bond - buying scale in December was 50 billion yuan, falling short of expectations. Investors need to pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and institutional investors can play for rebounds but should wait for a reversal [3][8][10]. - The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Operational suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focusing on basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including indicators such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, the Eurozone November unemployment rate, etc., along with their previous values, forecast values, and some yet - to - be - announced values [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The 2026 work meeting of the People's Bank of China emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and providing financial support for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [12]. - A Fed governor said that subsequent economic data would support the view that interest rate cuts are appropriate, and the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented [13][17][29].