证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 美股科技股回调，全球多数市场波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股科技股出现明显回调，全球多 数市场波动趋于加大。由于市场对于 AI 泡沫的担忧加大，美联 储降息表态偏鹰派，特朗普签署统一人工智能监管规则，叠加 日本央行行长植田和男表示到 2027 年会出现多次加息，本周美 股科技股回调幅度较大；博通、甲骨文、闪迪等美股科技股在 本周内的交易日中出现单日大幅回撤。目前 TAMAMA 科技指 数市盈率仍然有 36.98；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 45.72； 纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 42.01，美股科技股相关指数估值 进一步升高。由于美股科技股估值水平较高，美股科技指数中 期仍容易出现进一步的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍 有 40.22，依然处于高于 40 的高位区间，仍然距离 1999 年 12 月的历史高点较为接近。由于特朗普的经济政策存在较大的不 确定性，美联储宽松政策计划节奏不及市场预期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market experienced a significant downturn, particularly in the technology sector, driven by concerns over an "AI bubble" and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [2][9]. Market Performance - On December 12, US stock indices collectively fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, the Nasdaq down 1.69%, and the S&P 500 down 1.07% [3]. - Major tech stocks saw substantial declines, with Broadcom dropping over 11%, Oracle and TSMC ADR down over 4%, and Nvidia down over 3% [4]. AI Sector Concerns - Oracle's stock plummeted after reports indicated delays in data center construction for OpenAI due to labor and material shortages, which Oracle later denied [2][8]. - Broadcom's AI market sales outlook failed to meet investor expectations, raising fears about the sustainability of the AI sector [8]. Federal Reserve Influence - Hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials led to increased bond yields and a sell-off in tech stocks. Kansas City Fed President Esther George noted persistent inflation and a need for restrictive monetary policy [9][10]. - The market is anticipating key employment and inflation data that will influence the Fed's January policy decisions [10]. Future Rate Expectations - Current predictions suggest a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with a 75.6% probability of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 41.9% [10][11].

得州电网管理机构ERCOT报告显示，申请在2030年前接入得州电网的大型项目容量合计已超220GW，是今夏该州峰值需求的两倍多，其中超七成是数 据中心。今年在得州申请电力连网的大型项目数量几乎翻了两番，其中超半数、约128GW项目还未提交ERCOT审查。 得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校研究科学家、能源咨询公司IdeaSmiths创始人Joshua Rhodes直言： "这绝对看起来、闻起来、感觉起来——就像一个泡沫。整体的数字简直可笑。 据得州电网管理机构得州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）本周稍早公布的报告，申请在2030年前接入得州电网的大型项目容量合计已超过220吉瓦 （GW）。ERCOT数据显示，其中超过70%是数据中心项目。220GW是得州今年创纪录的夏季峰值需求约85GW的两倍多，也远超该州约103GW的季 度总发电容量。 我们根本没有办法在地面上建造这么多基础设施来满足这些数字。我甚至不知道中国能不能这么快做到。" 这场热潮还引发了更广泛的信贷担忧。橡树资本管理公司联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在本周的报告中写道： 美国得州正在经历一场疯狂的数据中心建设热潮，规模之大已引发业内人士对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market in 2025 faced significant challenges from tariff impacts, fiscal shifts, and industrial trends, yet demonstrated resilience post-shock, particularly with the influence of AI investments and favorable monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment and Market Dynamics - The scale and concentration of AI investments today far exceed those during the 2000 tech bubble, indicating that issues with major AI companies could have catastrophic effects on the financial and tech ecosystems [2]. - The current AI investment landscape is characterized by a consensus among market participants, with various stakeholders motivated to inflate the bubble, including tech firms, financial institutions, and media [3]. - The potential bursting of the AI bubble could create a fertile ground for new innovations, similar to the aftermath of the 2000 internet bubble, where excess infrastructure became affordable for future growth [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Profitability - The AI industry is segmented into three layers: chip manufacturers, cloud service providers, and model developers, with profitability and cash flow varying significantly across these segments [5][7]. - Chip manufacturers, exemplified by Nvidia, are currently enjoying high profitability due to strong demand for AI chips, while cloud service providers like Amazon and Microsoft have established resilient business models [7]. - Model developers face intense competition and higher costs, with companies like OpenAI incurring substantial R&D expenses, leading to a notable disparity in profitability across the AI value chain [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Health and Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure of major AI firms has surged, with the top five AI companies collectively spending $105.77 billion in Q3 2025, a 72.9% increase year-over-year, raising concerns about cash flow sustainability [9]. - The average capital expenditure to cash flow ratio for these firms reached 75.2%, indicating a significant strain on financial health as they continue to invest heavily in AI [9][12]. - Companies like Oracle are facing challenges with negative free cash flow, relying on external financing to support their capital expenditures [9][13]. Group 4: Risks from Financing Structures - The reliance on off-balance-sheet financing and complex investment structures among tech giants poses significant risks, as these methods can obscure true financial health and lead to systemic vulnerabilities [16][17]. - Historical precedents suggest that such opaque financing practices can lead to major financial crises, raising concerns about the potential for similar outcomes in the current AI investment landscape [18]. Group 5: Political and Economic Influences - Political uncertainty, particularly surrounding the upcoming elections, is expected to impact liquidity and market sentiment, potentially exacerbating vulnerabilities in the AI narrative [19][21]. - The interplay between political decisions and monetary policy will be crucial in shaping the future of AI investments and the broader stock market, with potential implications for economic stability [20][21].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中央经济工作会议 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行[1]。本次会议客观分析了中国经济面临的发展形势，不回避困难挑战，我们认为会议突 出问题导向、目标非常清晰，直接回应了市场和社会对消费、投资、房地产、企业账款、市场竞争秩序等一系列热点问题的广泛关切。 在政策工具的选择上，本次会议体现出更加注重质效的导向、工具的选择范围也更丰富。明年的政策取向是"稳中求进、提质增效"。其 中"提质增效"是今年的新要求，或意味着明年宏观政策会更加注重落地的效果，而不是仅强调总量扩张。我们在年度展望报告《"增 减"之间》[2]中也强调了2026年可能呈现总量政策适度加力，结构方面"增减"和"供需"同时发力以实现合理增长的观点。 2025.12.12 | 中金研究 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 适度加力，增减并行——12月政治局会议点评 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[3]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质 ...

Core Viewpoints - The fragility of capital expenditure will manifest through deteriorating liquidity, with potential financial risks arising from interconnected transactions and off-balance-sheet financing. The "political-liquidity-narrative" framework is identified as a key source of external volatility [2] Group 1: AI Investment Bubble - Many believe that there is no bubble in the AI investment sector, citing the healthy revenue and cash flow of tech giants compared to the dot-com bubble era. However, this comparison overlooks fundamental differences in scale and concentration of AI investments today [7] - The value of AI in enhancing productivity across industries will take a long time to materialize, as organizational and process changes lag behind technological advancements. AI currently serves more as a predictive tool rather than a decision-making replacement [9] - Despite the long-term nature of AI's impact on productivity, investment in AI has become a market consensus, driven by various stakeholders including tech companies, financial institutions, and media [10] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Vulnerability - From Q3 2025, capital expenditures among major tech firms investing heavily in AI reached $105.77 billion, a 72.9% year-on-year increase. This surge raises concerns about cash flow sustainability, with the average Capex/CFO ratio rising by 29.7 percentage points to 75.2% [24] - Projections indicate that by Q2 2027, the average Capex/CFO ratio for these firms could reach 95.9%, nearing the peak levels seen during the dot-com bubble [25] - The potential for negative free cash flow could deepen vulnerabilities, particularly for firms like Meta, which may face a cash flow crisis by Q4 2026 [32] Group 3: Financial Risks from High Leverage and Off-Balance-Sheet Financing - In the first 11 months of the year, the total issuance of corporate bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion, significantly exceeding previous years. This surge has led to increased bond spreads and heightened financial risk [39] - Companies like Meta are employing off-balance-sheet financing strategies to manage massive capital needs while maintaining favorable financial statements. This approach poses significant risks, especially if technology bubbles burst or market conditions shift [42][43] Group 4: Political Uncertainty and Liquidity Risks - The sustainability of the AI narrative is closely tied to liquidity conditions, which have been bolstered by recent interest rate cuts. However, political uncertainties, particularly surrounding upcoming elections, could tighten liquidity and impact market sentiment [44][48] - The interplay between political decisions and liquidity will likely lead to increased volatility in the stock market, particularly for AI-related investments [50]

美东时间周五，美股科技股重挫，中概股普跌。黄金突破4300美元后急跌，白银跳水。加密货币市场多 数下跌，超11万人被爆仓。 近期，多家机构对黄金价格走势持乐观态度，据智通财经报道，高盛表示，如果美国私人投资者将资金 部署到黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)中，到2026年底，金价达到每盎司4900美元的预期有很大上调空间。 加密货币市场普跌，比特币跌超2%，以太坊跌近4.5%，全市场超11万人爆仓。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品 | 21财经客户端 南财快讯工作室 热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.3%，亿鹏能源跌12.3%，阿特斯太阳能、博美跌超10%， 大全新能源、小马智行跌超5%；上涨方面，智能未来涨超4%，好未来、新东方、网易涨超2%。 金银震荡加剧，盘中齐跳水。现货黄金一度向上触及4353美元/盎司，为10月21日以来首次，距离历史 新高仅一步之遥，跳水后收近4300美元。现货白银跌2.5%，COMEX白银收跌3.9%。 受国际金价上涨影响，12月12日，周生生、老庙黄金、老凤祥等国内部分品牌金饰克价也创年内新高。 周生生金饰涨至1338元/克，老庙 ...

Market Overview - US technology stocks experienced a significant decline, with major indices collectively falling. The Dow Jones dropped by 246 points, the Nasdaq fell nearly 400 points, and the S&P 500 index saw a decline of over 1% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index decreased by 0.3%, reflecting a broad downturn in Chinese concept stocks [3] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks faced substantial losses, with Nvidia down over 3%, Amazon nearly 2%, and Meta, Microsoft, and Google each declining by more than 1% [2] - The semiconductor sector was particularly hard hit, with Broadcom plummeting over 11% and Oracle dropping more than 4% after a previous decline of nearly 11% [2][3] - Other semiconductor stocks like SanDisk and Oklo fell approximately 15%, while CoreWeave and Canaan Technology dropped by 10% and over 9%, respectively [2] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged to a peak of $4,353 per ounce before retreating to around $4,300, marking significant volatility [4] - Silver also experienced a sharp decline, with spot silver dropping by 2.5% and COMEX silver down by 3.9% [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw widespread declines, with Bitcoin falling over 2% and Ethereum nearly 4.5%, leading to over 110,000 liquidations [9][10]

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 美东时间周五，美股科技股重挫，中概股普跌。黄金突破4300美元后急跌，白银跳水。加密货 币市场多数下跌，超11万人被爆仓。 三大指数集体收跌，道指跌246点，纳指跌近400点，与标普500指数跌幅均超1%。 W 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | 4299.285 | | 昨结 | 4279.210 | 开营 | 4280.457 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +20.075 +0.47% | | | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现手 | | O | | 最高价 | 4353.570 | 持 仓 | 0 | | | O | | 最低价 | 4256.845 | 壇 ਦੇ | O | | | 0 | | स्त्रम्य | 王日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 童家 | | | 臺加 | | | | 均价:-- | 盘口 | | | 4353.570 | | | | 1.74% 卖1 | 4300.345 | O | | | | | | 录1 | 4299.285 | O | | | | | | | 0 ...

美国得州正在经历一场疯狂的数据中心建设热潮，规模之大已引发业内人士对泡沫的警告。由AI繁荣推动的数据中 心项目如潮水般涌入这个州，能源专家任务，这些需求根本不可能满足。 据得州电网管理机构得州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）本周稍早公布的报告，申请在2030年前接入得州电网的大型 项目容量合计已超过220吉瓦（GW）。ERCOT数据显示，其中超过70%是数据中心项目。220GW是得州今年创纪录 的夏季峰值需求约85GW的两倍多，也远超该州约103GW的季度总发电容量。 | Project Status | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | No Studies Submitted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,414 | 7,385 | 29,580 | 70,709 | 102,970 | 128,487 | | Under ERCOT Review | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,720 ...