投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子逐渐消化，胶市交投逻辑开始转向品种自身的供 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify. The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the US economic outlook turning better is negative for gold prices, while frequent geopolitical events are positive. Also, the recent rise in the US dollar index, US Treasury prices, and the US stock market has led to a decline in risk aversion demand [1][3]. - Nickel is expected to be weak in the short term. The short - term view is a decline, the mid - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, and the recent increase in the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Technically, the short - term price has broken through the technical support of 120,000, and it may continue to operate weakly [1][5]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated narrowly above 770, then oscillated downward at night, broke through 770, and then rebounded after hitting the bottom [3]. - **Market Environment**: The US dollar index and US Treasury prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and the US stock market has also shown an upward trend, leading to a decline in risk aversion demand [3]. - **View**: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify [1][3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the nickel price dropped significantly with increased positions in the afternoon, the main contract price broke through the 120,000 mark, then oscillated and stabilized; at night, it once broke through 119,000 and then rebounded after hitting the bottom. Recently, the nickel price has been oscillating downward and accelerated yesterday [5]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota, the nickel price dropped significantly [5]. - **View**: Short - term view is a decline, mid - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The short - term bears have an obvious advantage, and the price may continue to operate weakly after breaking through the technical support of 120,000 [1][5].

新华财经北京5月26日电（左元、吴郑思）26日，国内商品大面积下挫，多晶硅、氧化铝、工业硅、锰硅、合成橡胶跌超3%，碳酸锂、沪胶、铁矿石、热卷 跌超2%，焦煤、焦炭、螺纹、苯乙烯、原木、纯碱、一号大豆、尿素、豆油、硅铁、鸡蛋跌超1%；上涨品种中仅玻璃、SC原油、高硫燃料油涨幅超过 1%。 截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1351.65点，较前一交易日下跌5.41点，跌幅0.4%；中证商品期货指数收报1871.55点，较前一交易日下跌7.5 点，跌幅0.4%。 集运欧线下跌近6% 氧化铝转弱工业硅再创上市新低 26日集运欧线大幅回调，达飞、ONE调降欧线现舱报价，向马士基靠拢，引领期价下行，这其实在意料之内。不过，有机构认为，美国进口商对于剩余关 税依然存在巨大的担忧，运费的上涨令他们更加难以承受，"抢运"可能不及预期。不过机构对此看法差异较大，只能等待现实的逐步验证。 上周在几内亚矿端扰动影响下，氧化铝期价创逾两个月新高，不过，由于矿端扰动或预计不会对氧化铝企业生产造成明显影响，且上周五有消息称几内亚矿 端扰动有所缓和，盘面高位回落。海外矿端不确定性仍存，关注几内亚政策变动。 工业硅期货增仓大幅下 ...

2025年05月26日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价偏强运行。基本面：美元指数走弱，紫金卡莫阿项目暂停部分井下作业。铜矿紧张 | | | | 铜 | 格局延续，周度加工费-44 美金。下游开工率环比略走弱，精废价差 860 元左右。交易策略：短期宏观压力存 | | | | | 在，供需依旧偏紧，铜价预期依然区间震荡。风险提示：全球流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.56%，收于 20155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 325 | | 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2466 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | | | | | | 铝价有支撑，预计铝价维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1.46 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and diverse, with different trends and influencing factors in different sectors. For example, in the base metals market, aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, while alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of different products vary, and factors such as new device production, downstream demand, and international policies have significant impacts on prices [1][6]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and trade policies. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by South American and American production and trade policies, and the price of corn is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - In the shipping market, the Geneva Conference has brought changes to the shipping market, with different trends in the US and European routes, and the short - term EC is expected to be strong, but there are risks of insufficient demand [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.40% to 20,270 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 260 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,458 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the actual consumption of aluminum is weakening. Although the tariff issue has eased, it takes time to affect physical demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.92% to 3,216 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 105 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreased. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern due to Guinea's policy disturbances. It is recommended to buy call options for the near - term contract. If holding spot or futures long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options to reduce the premium cost [1]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.55% to 22,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 330 yuan/ton Back, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 28.9 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.34 tons to 8.04 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The Russian Longxing Mine may face shutdown risks in June. Imported zinc ingots are arriving in China, but the import volume may be less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and the social inventory is increasing [1]. - Trading strategy: In the future, as some smelters end their maintenance and imported zinc ingots arrive, zinc prices may fall due to insufficient consumption support [1]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 1.36% to 16,670 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 0 yuan/ton Con, and the LME 0 - 3 month spread was 26.12 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.88 tons to 5.03 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The production of primary lead enterprises was relatively stable, and the inventory of factories decreased. The loss of secondary lead was slightly repaired, and the discount of secondary refined lead may increase. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises changed little, and the spot market transaction was difficult to improve significantly [1]. - Trading strategy: After the consumption enters the off - season, terminal orders are difficult to improve. It is recommended to buy when the price falls to the low point of the range [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The 2507 contract closed at 7,880 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The position decreased by 9,112 lots to 183,700 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The resumption of production in Sichuan is obvious, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. The demand for polysilicon has no increase, and the organic silicon industry may enter the annual maintenance stage [2]. - Trading strategy: Since the industry has not implemented effective and continuous production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand surplus situation has been alleviated but still exists. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.23% to 16,093 tons, and the estimated monthly output in May decreased by 2.27% to 72,134 tons. The demand growth is lower than expected, and the social inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply - demand surplus is alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate or rebound slightly. In the long - term, the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The PS2507 contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day. The position increased by 3,806 lots to 77,300 lots, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 lots to 460 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The supply - side production cut rumors need to be confirmed. In the long - term, the demand may decline, and the price center may move down [2]. - Trading strategy: If there is no further production cut, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose without a strong driving force [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going smoothly. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand of US soybeans is seasonally weak [3]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driving force lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean price may rebound due to customs clearance disturbances and follow the international market in the medium - term [3]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the price of deep - processed corn decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. The grain rights have transferred to channels, and the import of substitutes is expected to decrease. The futures price has fallen to a level with cost - performance compared to wheat and is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is supported near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [3]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,835 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was - 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season. The domestic sugar market is in the pure sales period, and the inventory is low. The import profit has opened, and the domestic sugar mills' pricing may put pressure on the far - month contracts [4]. - Trading strategy: The price may rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [4]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price continued to weaken. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to rise [4]. - Fundamentals: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 318,600 tons to 3.834 million tons from the end of April to May 15th, a decrease of 7.67% [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [4]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply in the production area is in the seasonal increase period, and the export has improved month - on - month. The ITS shows that the export from May 1st to 20th increased by 5.3% month - on - month [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is in a weak seasonal stage but not in a clear trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [4]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2506 contract and the egg spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The breeding is in a loss state, and the number of old hens to be culled is expected to increase. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate due to sufficient supply and cost support [4]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog 2509 contract and the hog spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The hog supply continues to increase, the farmers' intention to hold and fatten hogs decreases, and the hog price is expected to fall gradually due to the increase in supply and the off - season demand [4]. - Trading strategy: The hog price is expected to decline gradually, and it is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' slaughter rhythm and the second - fattening trend [4]. Apples - Market performance: The price of apples is affected by extreme weather, and the market is worried about the new - season production [4]. - Fundamentals: The new - season apple production in the main production areas, especially in Shaanxi, is affected by hot and dry winds and cold snaps, and the fruit - setting is a problem. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the bagging situation at the end of May and the apple consumption [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The North China low - price spot was 7,220 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 40 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis weakened [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as new devices are put into production, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and other demands are stable. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive, and attention should be paid to the export situation [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [6]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 823 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 6,821 yuan/ton in RMB. The PTA East China spot price was 4,860 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 127 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX is low, and the supply of PTA is increasing. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [6]. - Trading strategy: The PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profits on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading. Pay attention to the short - position opportunities for far - month PTA [6]. Rubber - Market performance: The main RU2509 contract fell 0.3% to 14,810 yuan/ton on Thursday [6]. - Fundamentals: The price of Thai glue remained unchanged, and the price of cup glue decreased. The spot trading was average. The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Methanol - Market performance: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,241 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous day [6]. - Fundamentals: The coal price is falling, and the cost support is weak. The domestic methanol production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, and the import is expected to recover. The demand from the olefin sector is weak, and the traditional demand is stable but has passed the peak season. The coastal inventory is at a low level but is increasing [6][7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adopt a short - position strategy for the 09 contract [7]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China PP spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 120 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as the short - term maintenance is ending, new devices are put into production, and the import of LPG and the operation of PDH devices are normalizing. The demand from downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles is affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [7]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4,501 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 96 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased due to unexpected device maintenance, and the import is expected to be normal. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions as the valuation is high [7]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price fell again yesterday. The focus of trading is on the OPEC+ meeting on June 1st and the fifth - round negotiation between the US and Iran tonight [7]. - Fundamentals: If OPEC+ decides to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, the oil price may fall; if the production increase stops, the oil price may rebound. If the US - Iran negotiation fails, the oil price may rise; if an agreement is reached, the Iranian production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day, which is negative for the oil price [7]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China spot price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene is normal and is expected to increase slightly in May. The inventory of styrene is low and is expected to change from a slight increase to a slight decrease in May. The downstream profit is in a loss state, and the inventory of finished products is decreasing. The home appliance production in May is okay, and the export of plastic products and home appliances may accelerate due to the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads on the monthly difference [7]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract fell 0.95%. Most shipowners announced to increase the European line freight rate on June 1st [8]. - Fundamentals: The US - China tariff reduction has led to an increase in the US - line cargo volume, but the European - line cargo volume is still moderate. The shipowners will adjust the US - line supply, and new large - scale European - line ships are still being launched [8]. - Trading strategy: The short - term EC is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to prevent the freight rate from not meeting expectations due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to conduct long - short spreads for the 06 contract [8].

国内商品期货早盘开盘 集运欧线涨约4% 智通财经5月23日电，国内商品期货早盘开盘，互有涨跌。原油、焦煤等跌超1%，塑料、玻璃等小幅下 跌；集运欧线涨约4%，多晶硅涨超1%，豆粕、NR等小幅上涨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex trend, with different metals, industrial products, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping sectors having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by macro - policies and geopolitical events, while agricultural products are influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and seasonal demand [1][5][7]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the rise in gold and oil prices also boosts copper prices. The domestic back is still strong, indicating tightness in the near - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed down 0.17% at 20,075 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is weakening. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.22% at 3,134 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. It shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and corresponding option strategies and short - selling operations are recommended [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract of zinc closed down 0.09% at 22,435 yuan/ton. There is a risk of mine shutdown, and the actual import volume may be lower than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and zinc prices may fall [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract of lead closed down 0.09% at 16,845 yuan/ton. Consumption is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to fall in the short term and maintain range - bound in the medium term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2507 contract of industrial silicon hit a new low, closing at 7,940 yuan. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate closed down 0.88% at 60,860 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, and the demand growth is lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the inventory is decreasing rapidly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The supply - demand of steel is balanced, but the macro - sentiment is deteriorating. It is recommended to close short positions and conduct relevant arbitrage operations [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 724.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 844.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight. The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going well. The domestic soybean is weak in the short term and will follow the international market in the medium term [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn is running weakly. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the short - term spot sentiment may cool down. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,851 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season. It is expected to rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded, and the domestic cotton price also recovered. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is improving. It is in a weak seasonal stage with no major contradictions [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2507 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to decline [6]. - **Apples**: The main apple contract closed at 7,784 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The new - season apple production may be affected by weather, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the off - season and trade policies. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed at 4,937 yuan, down 0.3%. The supply is large, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is low, and the PTA supply is increasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,018 yuan, up 0.2%. The supply is rigid, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,250 [7]. - **PP**: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a medium level, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. The price is expected to be strong, but caution is needed for long positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and long - short spreads are recommended. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be boosted by trade policies [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,277 yuan, down 0.4%. The supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1,600 [8]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 1.32%. After the Geneva meeting, tariffs were reduced, and most shipowners announced a price increase on June 1. The demand in the US line has recovered, but the European line is still moderate. The short - term EC is expected to fluctuate strongly, and 8 - 10 long - short spreads are recommended, with caution for the 06 contract [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and different trends in the short and long term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: After Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, the dollar weakened, supporting copper. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot market is also tight after the contract change. The domestic inventory increased by 0.72 million tons this week. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly, while the aluminum product start - up rate decreases slightly. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The alumina plant has more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreases. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production. It is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and it is recommended to buy call options [1]. - **Lead**: The consumption enters the off - season, and it is difficult to improve terminal orders. The lead price has reached a strong resistance level of 17,000 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate within a range in the medium term [1]. - **Silicon**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term production in Sichuan has recovered significantly, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the demand growth rate falls short of expectations. The futures price is falling and the position reaches a new high. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting lightly later [2]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore at home and abroad is still tight. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The building materials market has weak supply and demand, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The plate demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to close short positions, hold short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and try the reverse spread of rebar 7/10 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures are in a premium structure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating, and the domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and follow the international market in the medium term. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are tightening marginally. The spot is weak, and the futures price oscillates and consolidates [5]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an enhanced supply - surplus pattern in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The futures price is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price rebounds slightly, and the domestic cotton price oscillates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the export improves. It is in a seasonal weak stage, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The supply increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Apples**: The new - season apple production is expected to decrease due to weather, and the price is at a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies as the supply will be loose [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA maintain the de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the spread and be cautious about unilateral trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Affected by the rumored purchase and storage and slight de - stocking of inventory, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: It oscillates weakly, and it is recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply and demand are de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The trading strategy is to short on rallies. Pay attention to the OPEC meeting and the US - Iran negotiation [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to do long - spread trading [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of maintenance increases, and the downstream demand weakens. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to stop falling and stabilize as the downstream alumina price rises [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 产量高位运行，焦煤维持弱势 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：统计局数据显示，4 月全国原煤产量 3.89 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant price movements in various commodities, particularly the sharp increase in alumina prices due to supply disruptions, while other commodities like lithium carbonate and焦煤 experienced declines [1][2]. - Alumina contracts hit the limit up with a 6.25% increase, driven by supply concerns after Guinea's mining authority ordered a halt at the Axis mine, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons [2]. - The overall commodity futures price index showed a slight decline, with the China Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1355.25 points, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2 - The supply issues in alumina are expected to provide short-term support for prices, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential oversupply as production may recover with rising prices [2]. - The double焦 and lithium carbonate prices have reached new lows, with lithium facing a downward spiral due to weak downstream demand [4]. - The egg futures market has seen a decline, with expectations of weak prices continuing due to increasing supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [4].