Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite recent fluctuations in price [5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 19, gold opened at $3368.92 per ounce, reached a high of $3387.63, and closed at $3368.74, with a daily fluctuation of $40.03 [1]. - The market showed signs of support above the mid-line, indicating limited downside potential and a risk of upward movement [1][3]. - The gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment but may rise again, supported by favorable fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates but indicated two potential rate cuts this year, which supports a bullish outlook for gold [5]. - Recent U.S. CPI and retail data showed unexpected declines, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing deflation risks, which could lead to further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have maintained support above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend [7]. - Weekly charts show that despite recent pullbacks, gold remains above the 5-10 week moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [9]. - Daily charts reflect reduced bearish pressure, with multiple support levels suggesting a likelihood of bullish rebounds if prices retrace [10]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties are expected to sustain demand for gold, with projections suggesting prices could exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year [5]. - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with potential resistance levels at $3380 and $3391, and support levels at $3355 and $3325 [10].

Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various asset classes that may withstand current global market pressures and geopolitical tensions, highlighting their potential for resilience and growth in uncertain times [2][3]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is characterized as a timeless safe-haven asset with a weak correlation to stocks and bonds, demonstrating strong risk-averse qualities during "black swan" events [6]. - Recent geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions have shifted market sentiment towards conservative and safe investments, increasing the appeal of gold [6]. - The investment logic for gold has evolved; previously, gold prices were inversely related to U.S. Treasury yields, but now, due to challenges to the "dollar hegemony," global demand for gold has surged, pushing prices higher [9]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach to gold investment, considering potential price corrections while gradually accumulating positions [9]. Group 2: Oil - Oil prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial market conditions, making it a critical industrial commodity [11][12]. - Historical analysis shows that geopolitical conflicts tend to boost oil prices in the short term, especially when they affect major oil-producing countries or transportation routes [13]. - Long-term oil price trends will still depend on supply-demand balance, and a stabilization of geopolitical tensions could lead to price corrections [13]. Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is seen as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical conflicts, with its investment logic evolving beyond traditional safe-haven assets to include event-driven and long-term growth potential [15]. - Key factors driving military industry investments include national defense being a non-cyclical expenditure, technological spillover into civilian sectors, and the reshaping of global dynamics due to U.S.-China competition [15][16]. - The military sector is characterized by high volatility, necessitating careful consideration of order fulfillment and valuation when investing [16]. Group 4: Equity Class - Dividend-paying stocks are positioned as stabilizers in volatile market conditions, offering steady cash flows and strong profitability [18]. - The article highlights Hong Kong dividend stocks as particularly attractive, providing a combination of stable performance and sustainable dividends [18]. - Dividend assets are suggested as a solid long-term investment option, balancing risk and return in uncertain market environments [20].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a predominantly positive trend, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experiencing fluctuations around 4500.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 4542.00 CNY and a low of 4486.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.30% [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran's production and export risks, are contributing to a strong international market, while domestic chemical demand is recovering, leading to increased import costs and potential profit margin pressures [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong performance for LPG, with expectations of continued volatility and potential downward pressure if geopolitical risks ease [1] Group 2 - Recent oil price rebounds have positively influenced LPG prices, although domestic LPG production is slightly below last year's levels, and inventory levels have fluctuated, with port inventory decreasing after reaching high levels [2] - The demand side shows mixed signals, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low, while chemical demand is rebounding, particularly in PDH and MTBE production, although overall profitability remains constrained [2] - Market strategies suggest maintaining a small long position in LPG futures, with stop-loss levels adjusted to around 4150 CNY, as the market is expected to experience wide fluctuations [2]

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4471元/吨（较前一交易日变动+71元/吨，幅度+1.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+77元/吨，幅度+1.72%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推 动明显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨 产能，后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面震荡抬升，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-43美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为150元/吨（环比+33 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳， ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main driver of major aromatic hydrocarbon varieties lies in the upstream crude oil. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts and subsequent oil price fluctuations, which will impact the costs of pure benzene and styrene. The domestic production rate of pure benzene has reached a high level, while the downstream CPL production rate has further declined, dragging down the demand for pure benzene. The US-South Korea window for pure benzene remains closed, and there is still significant pressure for shipments to China. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to rise, and the processing fee for pure benzene is weak. For styrene itself, the arrival rhythm has slowed down, leading to a slight decrease in port inventory. Although the absolute amount of port inventory is still low, the port basis is firm. In the medium to long term, with the gradual increase in styrene production, there is an expectation of factory inventory accumulation. Downstream, the inventory of PS and ABS still faces pressure, and the production rate is also mediocre [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - The report presents multiple figures related to EB and pure benzene basis structure and spreads, including EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, styrene consecutive one - consecutive three contract spreads, styrene non - integrated device production profit, styrene spot import profit, East China pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene CFR China - naphtha spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB South Korea, and China pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Figures show the East China port inventory of pure benzene, the production rate of pure benzene, the East China port inventory of styrene, the production rate of styrene, the East China commercial inventory of styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene [25][27][30] Downstream Production Rate and Production Profit - The report includes figures on the production rate and production profit of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [42][44][45] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Figures display the production profit of various pure benzene downstream products, including caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [47][52][54]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 增量信息有限——美联储 6 月议息会议点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 6 月议息会议决议。 核心结论：美联储如期维持利率不变，下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点 阵图显示年内降息次数维持 2 次不变，明年降息从 2 次减少至 1 次。会议 过后，市场降息预期变化不大，仍维持全年降 2 次、首次在 9 月。继续提 示：未来两个月将是重要的窗口期，关注贸易谈判结果、特朗普财政法案 落地情况、伊朗-以色列局势演化。美联储下次会议是 7/31，届时这些事 件均有望尘埃落定，因此下次会议可能释放更多政策信号。 1、美联储如期按兵不动，下调经济预测，点阵图显示降息空间减少。 >会议决议：美联储维持联邦基金利率 4.25-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。 会议声明有两处明显变化：（1）对经济前景不确定性的表述从"进一步加 剧"改为"有所下降，但依然很高"；（2）删掉了"委员会判断失业率和通 胀上升的风险已经增加"。 >点阵图：本次更新的利率点阵图与 3 月相比，美联储官员对年内降息的 预期维持 2 次不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for May showed a month-on-month decline of 0.9%, lower than the expected 0.7% and the previous value of -0.1%, marking the largest drop since March 2023, indicating a sluggish consumer market which is somewhat bullish for gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices saw reduced downward momentum, hitting a low of $3366 before continuing to trade in a narrow range [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key focus for the gold market, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [1] Oil Market - The API reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a drop of 10.133 million barrels, far below the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels, indicating strong oil consumption which supports rising oil prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with Russia launching a large-scale counteroffensive against Ukraine and the EU planning to ban imports of Russian oil and gas [2] Geopolitical Tensions - U.S. President Trump urged Iran to surrender unconditionally, while Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated the need for a strong response against Israel, indicating ongoing tensions with no signs of reconciliation [3] - The conflict between Iran and Israel is intensifying, which, combined with increased oil demand, provides strong support for oil prices [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index continues to oscillate within the range of 21450 to 22060, with recent poor retail data causing a dip to a low of 21630, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for clearer direction [4] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating between 97.50 and 99.20, with significant support at 97.50 leading to a strong rebound and a short-term upward trend [5]

黄金消息面解析 1、亚洲盘期间，以色列宣称已摧毁伊朗部分铀浓缩设施，并威胁将进一步打击深藏地下90 米的福尔多核设施。与此同时，特朗普政府向中东增派战斗机并 部署双航母战斗群，加剧了地区紧张氛围。 然而，黄金价格并未因冲突升级而显著上涨，纽约金期货亚盘下跌 0.50% 至 3370.59 美元/ 盎司，反映出市场对地缘风险的 "疲劳效应"—— 投资者更关注美 联储政策动向及经济数据对黄金的中长期影响。 此外，伊朗导弹技术的实际效果存疑（如高超音速导弹命中精度未获第三方验证），削弱了避险情绪的持续性。 今日操作建议：15分钟级别高抛低吸，止盈止损参考区间3360-3410。 2、美联储于 6 月 17-18 日召开议息会议，市场普遍预期维持利率不变，但关注其对年内降息路径的指引。 尽管美国 5 月零售销售环比下降 0.9%（创两年来最大降幅），制造业产出三个月内第二次下滑，但特朗普政府的关税政策可能推升未来通胀压力，导致美 联储态度趋于谨慎。 亚洲盘时段，CME "美联储观察" 显示，市场仍押注9 月降息概率达 62%，但利率交易员创纪录地押注鲍威尔任期结束后美联储将急速转鸽，这一预期在中 长期为黄金提供支撑。 ...