美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲的"财政扩 张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低。 ICE美元指数周四反弹失败，周五重挫下跌，一度跌破99整数关口。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售 ，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下， 更高的收 益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds faced weak demand, leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields to an 18-month high, hovering above 5% [1] - RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas noted a shift in investor perception regarding the safe-haven value of long-term U.S. Treasuries, driven by increasing risks related to government spending, taxation, trade, inflation, and growth [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has raised concerns, with projections indicating that U.S. debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current deficit levels compared to other developed nations [1] Group 2 - The Responsible Federal Budget Committee estimates that the recent tax cut plan could increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, equivalent to 10% of this year's GDP [2] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the implications of high deficits during a period of low unemployment, likening current borrowing levels to wartime financing [2] - There are warnings that unless the stock market experiences another significant downturn, the administration may not reconsider its tax cut strategy, potentially leading to a severe sell-off in long-term bonds that could impact risk assets [2]

美债市场的风险正在加剧，30年期美债收益率为5.1610%，接近2023年10月的最高点，而目前的利率却 比那时低了100个基点。除此之外，亚洲和欧洲的债券也同样遭到抛售，投资者对高债务的担忧加剧。 在美国财政前景不断恶化和政策不确定性的情况下，美国债券市场的波动加剧。 黄金方面： 据数据显示，美国联邦的债务已经超过36万亿美元，近期通过的税收和支出法案可能新增3.8万亿美元 的债务。另外，穆迪上周下调了美国主权信用评级，结束了美国长达108年的最高信用评级。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，近期美债的关注度非常高，一方面特朗普政府通过的法 案将增加财政赤字，另一方面美债到期的担忧持续发酵。 技术面：原油4月初跌破了过去两年多的震荡区域，虽然未出现连续下跌，但走弱的迹象非常明显。上 周三（5月14日）以来，油价维持高位震荡，64美元未能突破，或将继续保持55-64美元区间宽幅震荡。 小时图来看，油价从周三（5月21日）的高点持续震荡下行，日内上方关注61.50美元的阻力，下方若跌 破60.30美元则看向58.50美元一线。 日经225方面： 日经225在38750一线遇阻回落，小时图震荡下行，昨日触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government maintains a "strong dollar" policy, dismissing speculations about a shift towards a "weak dollar" or secret currency agreements [1][9][10]. Group 1: Strong Dollar Policy - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, confirmed the commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, refuting any claims of secret currency agreements during trade negotiations [1][3][4]. - Following Miran's statements, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 100.1216 before slightly retreating [2]. - Miran emphasized that the strong dollar is not just about exchange rates but also concerns the stability of the dollar system and its structural advantages as the global reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Strategy - Miran addressed concerns regarding tariffs, economic deficits, and potential recession, stating that the recent market volatility is expected during policy adjustments [11][13]. - He noted that while companies might delay investments or hiring, this does not indicate an impending recession, but rather a temporary shift in timing [14]. - The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with over 20 countries, expecting to finalize multiple agreements in the coming months, which could significantly boost U.S. exports and help reduce the trade deficit [15]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy - Miran criticized the Biden administration for leaving behind a challenging fiscal situation while defending the current fiscal strategy [16][17]. - He argued that fiscal deficits should occur during genuine crises, not during stable economic periods, and that assessments of deficits should consider various factors beyond static evaluations [18]. - Despite market challenges, Miran expressed confidence in the administration's core economic strategy, which focuses on tax reform, deregulation, and energy independence [19][20].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货5月23日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计960641千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加11444千克。 沪银主力短线还是继续看回落，今日白银期货开盘报8236元/千克，最高触及8286元/千克，最低触及 8200元/千克，截止收盘报8263元/千克，日内跌幅0.37%。 周四的数据显示，经季节性调整的英国制造业采购经理人指数意外从 4 月份的 45.4 降至 5 月份的 45.1，因为市场预测报告期内的读数为 46.0。与此同时，英国 5 月服务业商业活动指数初值升至 50.2， 而前值为 49.0，预期为 50.0。 在美国国债收益率下跌的推动下，英镑/美元上涨，美元下跌。由于对美国财政赤字增加的担忧日益加 剧，30 年期美国债券收益率从 5.15% 回落，为 19 个月来的最高水平，而特朗普的"一大美丽法案"正在 进入参议院。 美国众议院周四以一票之差批准了特朗普的预算，该预算将对小费收入和美国制造的汽车贷款提供税收 减免。据国会预算办公室 （CBO） 称，该提案预计将使赤字增加 38 亿美元。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 111864 0 外运华东虹桥 121651 0 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进 口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同）， 对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月19日，中国 央行表示将抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导。5月20日，中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)分别从3.1%与3.6%下调至3%和3.5%。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总 理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商 机制。重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对该事件敏感的商品。5月15日商务部例行发布会回应中方对美关税反制 措施调整，称因美方撤销对华加征关税而相应调整，并表明对中美经贸磋商机制持开放态度，双方将依日内瓦会 谈共识保持沟通。此外中方再次敦促美方 ...

穆迪下调美国主权信用评级对美国股市、债市的冲击依然在延续，目前看其对美债的负面影响最为显著。截至今日发稿前，美国20年期国债收益率升至 5.105%左右，30年期国债收益率升至5.086%左右，均为2023年10月以来最高位置。 来源：Choice 数据 "卖出美国"音量再起 本周三，20年期美债的公开市场拍卖发行的最高中标利率达到了5.047%，这是史上第二次得标利率超过5%，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57下降至 2.46，惨淡收场。这是本次美国主权信用评级被下调后的直接结果之一：美债市场受到冲击，价格出现疲软，吸引力出现下降。 长期以来，5%的水平一直被认为是一个重要的心理阈值——一旦越过这个阈值，可能会带来更多的抛售和更高的收益率。 美债价格的高低将直接关系到美元的地位以及美国股市的波动，吸引力下降的美债可能会导致部分避险资金流出美国，从而影响美元地位。而美联储为了 支撑美债而采取的增持行动，从结果看也可近似看做增发美元，引发美元汇率下降。 据新华社报道，美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧近日警告，穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调文件描述中，对美国债务风险"轻描淡写"，穆迪未计入可 能因为超印美元自购美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, leading to significant market reactions including a drop in stock prices and rising bond yields, indicating a potential crisis in the US debt market [2][3][11]. Group 1: US Debt Market Reactions - The 20-year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 resulted in a disappointing yield of 5.047%, marking the second time this yield has surpassed 5% [2][6]. - Following the auction, the yield on the 20-year Treasury bond rose to 5.127%, the highest level since November 2023 [8]. - The overall demand for the auction was slightly below average, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - The US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion for 2024, and a record deficit of $3.13 trillion in 2020 [11][12]. - The public debt rate has reached 97.8%, with projections indicating it could rise to 107.2% by 2029 [18]. - The article highlights concerns that foreign investors are reluctant to fund the US's dual deficits at current price levels, as evidenced by a declining dollar index [11]. Group 3: Global Impact and Comparisons - The turmoil in the US debt market has triggered a "earthquake" in the Japanese bond market, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012 [20]. - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 232.7%, significantly higher than Greece during its debt crisis [22]. - Analysts warn that Japan could become a potential center for global financial risk due to its precarious fiscal situation [22].

美国财政状况的持续恶化是美元走弱的重要原因之一。国际信用评级机构穆迪本月16日宣布，将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，理由是美国 政府债务和利息支付比例增加。这一消息对市场信心造成冲击，在穆迪宣布降级后的首个交易日，30年期美国国债收益率盘中突破5%，美元对10 种非美货币汇率下跌。 【环球网财经综合报道】近期，金融市场美元走势备受关注，美元指数一路下挫，市场对美国经济及财政状况的担忧情绪不断升温。 22日晚间消息显示，美国30年期国债收益率短线拉升，日内上升逾2个基点，报5.123%，达到2023年10月以来的最高日内水平，距离2007年以来 的最高点越来越近。这反映出投资者对特朗普减税计划表示反对，对财政赤字的担忧开始对市场产生压力。 5月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数再次跌破100整数关口，这是其连续第三个交易日下跌。5月22日盘中，美元指数延续弱势震荡态 势，最低触及99.43。其中，美元兑日元汇率一度下跌0.6%至142.81，创下两周以来的新低。自今年1月达到高点以来，美元指数累计跌幅已接近 10%，市场看空情绪愈发浓厚。 彭博社援引相关指标指出，货币期权交易员对美元今后一年走势的 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28% [1][3] - The approval of Trump's tax reform plan by the House of Representatives raised concerns about increasing U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to selling pressure in the long-term U.S. Treasury market [1][8] Treasury Yields - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached approximately 5.15%, marking a new high since October 2023, before retreating during the trading session [8][10] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields may exacerbate market concerns regarding the economy, as these rates serve as benchmarks for consumer loans such as mortgages [10] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index increasing by 0.6%. Notable individual stock performances included Tesla up nearly 2%, Google up over 1%, and Amazon up nearly 1% [5] - Bank stocks generally rose, with Goldman Sachs up 0.77% and Morgan Stanley up 0.76%, while energy stocks fell across the board, with ExxonMobil down 0.68% and Chevron down 0.21% [7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.18% and notable drops in stocks like Xpeng Motors down over 7% [7] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell, with London gold down 0.6% to $3,294.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.56% to $3,295.10 per ounce [12] - International oil prices also continued to decline, with WTI crude futures down 1.23% and ICE Brent crude down 1.29% [13]