Core Viewpoint - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on U.S. Treasury yields is primarily a "sentiment pulse" rather than a trend-driven factor, with inflation expectations and monetary policy being the true drivers of interest rates [1]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - Historical data indicates that localized wars typically affect bond markets for only a few weeks, with the Gulf War showing a total yield fluctuation of no more than ±20 basis points [1]. - During the Vietnam War, yields rose by a cumulative 380 basis points, driven by the "Great Inflation" era and monetary instability [1]. Recent Market Movements - As of February, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 28 basis points, reaching a new low of 3.95% [2]. - This decline is driven by four main factors: the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, rising tensions in the Middle East, weak macroeconomic fundamentals, and the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries compared to German and Japanese bonds [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term support for U.S. Treasuries remains due to ongoing reassessment of rate cut expectations and strong credit markets [2]. - However, the primary risk has shifted from geopolitical events to energy price revaluation, with oil prices surging over 13% following military actions in the Middle East, which could reignite inflation expectations and exert upward pressure on Treasury yields [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on US Treasury yields is a "sentiment pulse" rather than a trend driver. The real factors affecting interest rates are inflation expectations, monetary policy paths, and fiscal deficits. In the absence of a full - scale war leading to hyperinflation or fiscal collapse, geopolitical events cannot continuously push up or down interest rates. The current decline in US Treasury yields has some support, but the conditions for a trend reversal are not yet sufficient. The biggest risk is the re - pricing of energy prices [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Historical Review: How Big is the Disturbance of Geopolitical Conflicts on US Treasuries - Geopolitical conflicts have a more complex impact on US Treasury yields than market intuitions. The logic of "war breaks out → funds seek refuge → yields decline" does not hold in most historical cases. Short - term local wars have limited impact on US Treasury yields. For example, during the Gulf War, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated within ±20bp; during the Falklands War, the change in UK Treasury yields was negligible. During the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, the yield declined by 12bp on the invasion day but then rose by over 200bp due to inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes. In the long - term, the increase in US Treasury yields during the Vietnam War was due to inflation, and the decline during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars was due to quantitative easing after the dot - com bubble burst and the financial crisis. Geopolitical conflicts are at most short - term emotional disturbances, and their impact on interest rates usually lasts no more than a few weeks [8][9]. 3.2 Market Review: Direct Triggers for the Current Decline in US Treasuries - In February, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 28bp, reaching a new low since November 2025. The decline was driven by four factors: geopolitical events (the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the breakdown of US - Iran nuclear talks) triggered risk - averse capital inflows; weak macro - fundamentals (Q4 2025 GDP growth of only 1.4% and low consumer confidence) strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts; the marginal loosening of the valuation logic of technology stocks led to the defensive transfer of some equity funds; the positive spread of US Treasuries relative to German and Japanese bonds attracted international investors, and the strong credit market also increased the demand for high - quality credit assets. In addition, the supply - demand mismatch of long - term bonds intensified the downward pressure on yields. At the end of February, the escalation of the Middle East situation had not been fully priced in by the US Treasury market [15][16][18]. 3.3 Current Judgment: Sustainability of the Current Safe - Haven Market - The decline in US Treasury yields has some support. The weakening of macro - data is hard to reverse in the short term, and the market is still re - pricing the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The credit market is strong, and the spread advantage of US Treasuries remains. However, the biggest risk is the re - pricing of energy prices. After the US - Israel military strike on Iran, oil prices rose by over 13%. If oil prices remain high, inflation expectations will be re - activated, putting upward pressure on US Treasuries. Therefore, the oil price trend and Fed officials' statements after last week's opening are key to judging the sustainability of the safe - haven market. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about US Treasury bulls and not to over - chase long - duration exposures [25][26].

Macro Economic Outlook - Indonesia's GDP growth accelerated to 5.39% in Q4 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate, leading to an annual growth rate of 5.11% for the year [3][10] - Strong household consumption, improved labor conditions, stable fixed asset investment, and resilient manufacturing are the main drivers, while mining is the only sector in contraction [3][10] - The Indonesian central bank (BI) forecasts a GDP growth of 5.3% for 2026, supported by fiscal measures and Danantara funding, provided external risks remain manageable and the Indonesian rupiah stabilizes [3][10] Risks and Warnings - MSCI and Moody's issued warnings regarding governance, liquidity, and policy predictability, causing volatility in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) [4][20] - Moody's downgraded Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing concerns over governance and fiscal policy predictability, which could hinder foreign direct investment [4][20] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The 2026 fiscal and monetary policies aim to support growth while adhering to a 3% budget deficit limit, with targeted spending in housing, healthcare, education, and infrastructure [5][31] - The BI is expected to maintain interest rates in the short term, with potential cuts of 75 to 100 basis points in 2026 if the rupiah remains stable and inflation returns to the target range of 1.5% to 3.5% [5][32] Danantara's Role in Growth - The Danantara fund plans to deploy up to $14 billion in 2026, focusing on renewable energy, digital infrastructure, healthcare, food security, and downstream projects [6][34] - Six major downstream projects worth $7 billion were launched in February 2026, marking the beginning of a broader $36.7 billion project pipeline [6][34] Capital Markets Performance - The JCI experienced an 8.4% decline year-to-date due to foreign sell-offs triggered by MSCI and Moody's warnings, but foreign outflows have slowed significantly in February [7][39] - The current valuation of the JCI is attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 12.8 for 2026, indicating potential investment opportunities for long-term investors [7][39] Sector Allocation - Short-term defensive sectors include consumer staples, healthcare, and telecommunications, while financial services and utilities are expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and state-owned enterprise restructuring in the medium term [8][43] - Long-term structural growth is anticipated in the mining and energy sectors, driven by downstream processing and Danantara-led integration [8][44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 7D OMO rate cut in March and April this year is worth expecting, and the next 7D OMO rate cut is likely to lead to a parallel downward shift in the short - and long - ends of the yield curve. If the central bank cuts the reserve requirement ratio in the next quarter, investors should not be surprised [2][12][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Enjoy the Decline in Yields - From the end of August 2025 to the present, the 10Y Treasury bond yield has fluctuated between 1.8% - 1.9%. After a long - term narrow - range shock, the market will choose a direction. With the formation of the 7D OMO rate cut expectation, the 10Y Treasury bond yield will shift downward. Recently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield has been slightly lower than 1.80% for three consecutive trading days [1][8] 2. Reasons for the Expected Rate Cut - CD interest rates are affected by both financial institutions and the central bank, and their long - term trend depends more on the central bank's attitude. Since the end of the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025, the interest rates of 3M, 6M, and 1Y AAA - rated CDs have decreased by 7.3bp, 7.8bp, and 9.5bp respectively compared to the high points in December 2025, indicating that the central bank may increase the counter - cyclical adjustment [2][10] - Recently, the internal and external factors restricting the rate cut have been significantly alleviated. The implementation of the policy mainly depends on the economic situation. The nominal GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year dropped from 4.8% in the third quarter to 4.5%, lower than 5.4% in the first quarter [3][12] 3. Other Notes - The spread between the 10Y Treasury bond and 7D OMO is currently less than 40bp, which is still at a relatively low level in history, with limited room for further compression [3][12] - The MLF balance at the end of February this year reached 7.25 trillion yuan, close to the historical high. When the MLF balance is high, the central bank usually cuts the reserve requirement ratio to release long - term liquidity [3][13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis. Considering Iran's influence on methanol exports and the Strait of Hormuz's impact on shipping, the impact on methanol is significant. Methanol hit the daily limit, breaking through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line, opening up upward space. In the short term, as the event continues to unfold, methanol is in a pattern where it is easier to rise than to fall. A low - buying strategy is recommended, and close attention should be paid to the external situation [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 144.67 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased slightly by 0.05 million tons, while that in South China increased by 1.50 million tons. The methanol port inventory accumulated slightly after the holiday. Although the unloading speed of foreign ships was average, the holiday restricted提货, affecting consumption. In Jiangsu, some warehouses along the Yangtze River had ship - supported pick - ups, but truck pick - ups were scarce, and inventory accumulated under foreign ship supply. In Zhejiang, downstream performance was stable, and less ship unloading led to inventory decline. In South China this week, the port inventory increased slightly. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic ship cargoes arrived during the period, and the pick - up volume in the mainstream warehouses decreased significantly due to the holiday, resulting in inventory accumulation. In Fujian, there was no ship cargo replenishment, and the consumption speed slowed down due to the decrease in downstream start - up, with pick - up performance being average and inventory decreasing slightly [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 27, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, emphasizing the need to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and strengthening the coordination of reform measures and macro - policies. - The People's Bank of China decided to reduce the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026. - On March 1 local time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated. - Shipping industry news showed that three oil tankers were attacked and damaged in the waters along the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, shipping data showed that more than 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied gas tankers, were anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis The conflict between the US and Iran has broken out, with a scale and degree far exceeding previous ones. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, which has a huge impact on methanol. Methanol hit the daily limit, breaking through the resistance of the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line, opening up upward space. In the short term, as the event continues to ferment, methanol is in a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a low - buying strategy should be adopted, with a focus on tracking the external situation [4].

Market Overview - Global assets experienced significant volatility due to rising risk aversion, with gold and silver prices increasing by 3.35% and 11.76% respectively last week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 3.97%, while European bond yields also declined significantly[3] - U.S. stock markets saw a collective drop in major indices, contrasting with gains in Japanese and European markets[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, driven primarily by rising service prices[13] - Fed Governor Milan reiterated the need for a 100 basis point rate cut in 2026, complicating the monetary policy outlook due to inflationary pressures[7] Japanese Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan's Governor indicated a careful review of data in March and April to decide on potential interest rate hikes, with February's core CPI at 1.8%[8] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 3.56%, leading global stock market performance[3] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 11 basis points to 3.97%, with foreign holdings of U.S. debt dropping by $88.4 billion to $9.27 trillion[33] - The 10-year UK bond yield fell by 23 basis points to 4.24%, while German and French yields also saw declines of 5 basis points and 8.4 basis points respectively[40] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices reached $5,222, marking a 3.35% increase, while silver prices rose to $90, up 11.76%[5] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.22% to $67, reflecting a year-to-date rise of 17.39%[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in month-end bill rates, with a significant decrease in net purchases by major banks year-on-year [1][14] - The central bank's operations included a total of CNY 16,410 billion in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of CNY 4,614 billion [14] - The report anticipates continued flexibility in central bank operations to stabilize liquidity fluctuations, especially with important meetings approaching [14][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Month-End Bill Rate Rebound - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced due to post-holiday fund recovery and tax payments [14] - Major banks' net purchases of bills have significantly decreased, with only an increase of approximately CNY 320 billion year-on-year as of February 27 [17] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank's MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) increased by CNY 6,000 billion, continuing to inject long-term liquidity into the market [14] - The end-of-period rates for DR001 and DR007 were 1.32% and 1.50%, reflecting increases of 0.68bp and 18.23bp respectively [15] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) reached CNY 18.77 trillion, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.59% [19] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit for the period was CNY 4,545 billion, with a completion rate of 93.3% [19]

[Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 上周长端债券收益率先升后降，短端略有上行。周中 10 年期国债收益率较 节前上升 4BP 至 1.829%，周五下降 4BP 回落至 1.788%； 1 年期国债收益率 较节前提高 1BP 至 1.33%。债券收益率上行主要受三因素影响：一是节后资 金集中到期，资金面阶段性偏紧，叠加地方债发行提速，加剧长端波动；二 是节后权益市场持续走强，对债市情绪形成一定压制；三是 10Y 下破 1.80% 后，交易盘集中止盈。在央行释放流动性、地缘政治等因素影响下，周五长 端收益率下行。 政策面，央行结构对冲，流动性总体平衡。（1）央行通过公开市场操作对冲 资金到期。节后首周，OMO 市场资金回笼量达 2.3 万亿元，为对冲资金到期 影响，投放量高达 1.57 万亿元，资金回笼规模达 7200 亿元。资金到期回 笼主要集中于周初，至周末资金投放已显著高于回笼。（2）MLF 超额续作。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - and long - term upward drivers of precious metals remain unchanged, and the precious metals sector has shown signs of recovery from the sharp decline at the end of January. It is recommended that investors maintain a bullish stance, but strictly control positions to avoid short - term volatility risks [4]. - The callback of precious metals has a reasonable basis, but the hawkish policy stance of the next Fed Chairman has no fundamental impact on the long - cycle bull market of gold. It is expected that gold will rise in the medium and long term, and silver, platinum, and palladium will be stronger than gold in the medium term. Investors are advised to go long after the downward momentum of the precious metals sector weakens, while being vigilant against the medium - term risk that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may end the precious metals bull market [6]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold fluctuated between $5150 - 5200 per ounce, waiting for clearer guidance. The People's Bank of China's reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by financial institutions supported the prices of domestic precious metals. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports pushed up the prices of industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index increased by 0.12%, 2.22%, 5.81%, and 3.85% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The determination of the next Fed Chairman reduced the market's demand for safe - haven assets. The callback of precious metals was reasonable, but it did not change the long - and medium - term upward trend. The hawkish policy stance was more favorable to silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold. Since November 2025, a large amount of investment capital has entered the precious metals market, increasing price volatility. The annualized volatility of gold and silver reached 30% and 80%, respectively [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai and London gold and silver futures and spot indices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, the holdings of gold and silver ETFs, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, with the results to be announced by August 21st. It will also consider a scenario of gradually imposing partial tariffs on important national security products over five years if Congress revokes the status [17]. - Oman, as a mediator, stated that the US and Iran made significant progress in nuclear - dispute negotiations. Both sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and resume negotiations soon, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [17]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased slightly by 4,000 to 212,000. The labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged. It is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [17].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.92%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.88%[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for February is 50.00%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from January, while the demand index increased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.88%[11] Industrial Production - Post-holiday industrial production is better than the same period last year, with the automobile operating rate showing improvement[2] - The steel production rate is at 80.24%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week, and up 1.93 percentage points year-on-year[20] Consumer Trends - Home appliance sales during the Spring Festival period showed a significant decline, with many products experiencing negative year-on-year growth by February 22[2] - The average daily sales of passenger cars fell to 40,953 units, down 23,608 units year-on-year[27] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by approximately 87.4% year-on-year during the first five days post-holiday, totaling 113.1 million square meters[2] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 19 cities reached 110.41 million square meters, up 78.0% year-on-year[2] Export Performance - The export resilience remains strong, with the monitoring ports recording a total cargo throughput of 18,760.60 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 24,558.20 million tons[39] - South Korea's export growth rate for February is 29.00%, down 4.9 percentage points from January but up 28.60% year-on-year[39] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.87 yuan/kg, down 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous week[45] - The spot price of gold increased to 5,222.30 USD/oz, up 169.10 USD/oz from the previous week[45]